(12-01-2022 02:00 PM)correcamino Wrote: I could see Liberty being in the mix on a yearly basis. They will run the newest iteration of CUSA, and depending on their OOC schedule could see them having a bunch of 0-2 loss seasons.
I can see future arguments about whether an undefeated/1 loss Liberty should get the nod over a 1 loss/2 loss AAC champion.
Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
There is still a lot of work to do. Firstly, our conference needs to perform past the perception dip we're going to take with the shuffle. Best case scenario would have been two legacy teams in the CCG this year, but at least there is one. Hopefully Tulane wins(sorry UCF). It also helps that both CUSA CCG participants are future AAC teams. The playing field between us and the G4 was likely leveled a little bit from a perception standpoint, but we(AAC) still hopefully have the inside track on NY6 next year.
Next, I'm a firm believer that the current 4-team model is the reason why recruiting/performance has consolidated over the past few years. Just among the P5, 4 spots for 5 conferences has put the PAC-12 way behind(and now the ACC with Clemson's fall from the top). Apart from the at-larges, with 6 guaranteed spots for 10 conferences, I could see there being a drop-off between conferences #6 and #7 over time. We need to make sure we're consistently #6 and not #7, similar to how our conference has dominated the NY6 bid the last few years.
If we each do our part, the AAC will be a playoff regular. First you get there and get your tail kicked. Then you get there and win a game. Then you're getting there and winning games regularly. Just due to the money gap, I don't think our conference will ever have a hosting team, but A) getting there and B) not being a doormat at the 10-year mark would be a win.
(12-01-2022 09:44 AM)owl at the moon Wrote: All four y’all are pretty close to right.
AAC won’t be quite as clearly best of the so-called G5 of old, but will still get more CFP spots than the other four.
Next four years, my prediction:
AAC 3
MWC 1
SBC 1
CUSA/MAC 0 (was going to say .5 mostly for Liberty, but I’m backing it off to 0 (+\-1) with Freeze gone.
Betcha I’m within +\- one on all of them.
Notice also that adds up to 5 of the next four years.
Which is the absolute best part of this, that there is a chance a P5 champ can still miss the playoffs even with 12 going (and 6 champs)
Big picture on this is I’m pumped and this is HUGE and I can finally watch CFP games now! (ok I watched Cincy last year of course)
You listed five years. My prediction would be:
AAC 1.67 (e.g., Tulane & UTSA)
MWC 1.67 (e.g., Boise State & SDSU, Fresno, or Air Force)
SBC 1.67 (e.g., Troy & App. State, Louisiana, or Coastal)
Nope. I listed 5 champions in four years.
Which means I’m predicting in the next four years one of the current P5 champions will miss the CFP.
Because *no league* has an auto bid.
Just the top six league champions each year as determined by the committee.
The PAC tried to sneak in P5 autobids but Aresco called them on it… and won.
Yes the PAC will get the benefit of the doubt if it’s close.
Just like the AAC does now against the SBC
Thanks for clarifying this point, and for reminding us that this isn't necessarily going to be a zero-sum game for the G5 teams.
I would keep the percentages at 1.67 for the AAC, MWC, and SBC, whether that's over the first four or five years, remains to be seen.
Is it possible that two G5 champs will make their way into a 12-team playoff, now and then? Yes, it's possible. Past data suggest it could happen once every 3 or 4 seasons, so you raised an interesting & valid insight.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2022 04:59 PM by Milwaukee.)
New CFP format that will start in 2024:
(1) 6 highest-ranked champs get AQs
(2) next 6 highest-ranked teams get At-Larges
(3) byes to top 4 conference champs
(4) 1st round at better seed
Oh wow, so this is the access G5 have been fighting for, damn, it came true...
And just in time for us to leave the G5. We make it if it's in effect in 2015.
(12-01-2022 08:39 PM)Owls9878 Wrote: I wonder if this incentivizes MW schools to defect to the AAC, especially if SDSU bolts for the PAC.
Imagine adding Boise St. and AFA to the AAC. The AAC would be a slam dunk as the 6th highest rated conference.
We already are the slam dunk 5th or 6th highest rated conference. We could snatch those schools up whenever we want but I’m sure Aresco has a plan. Boise would kill to be in this conference but I’m quite concerned about their academics. Their market is suspect too but they have kind of made a little name for themselves. I would still take the sizzling new markets we have now over a has been program like Boise St. make no mistake about it though, we are far and away one of the top six conferences and it’s not even in the same universe with the G4.
(12-01-2022 02:00 PM)correcamino Wrote: I could see Liberty being in the mix on a yearly basis. They will run the newest iteration of CUSA, and depending on their OOC schedule could see them having a bunch of 0-2 loss seasons.
I can see future arguments about whether an undefeated/1 loss Liberty should get the nod over a 1 loss/2 loss AAC champion.
Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out-resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
And we out resource everyone in the G4
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2022 09:13 PM by CLTPirate.)
(12-01-2022 09:27 AM)KnightLight Wrote: Since the AAC was formed...here were the members that made a BCS (under old contract for 2013 only) and NYD6 games:
2013: UCF (Fiesta Bowl...beat Big 12 Champ #6 Baylor)
2014: None...Boise State, beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl 2015: Houston (Peach Bowl...beat #9 FSU)
2016: None...Western Michigan...lost to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl 2017: UCF (Peach Bowl...beat Auburn)
2018: UCF (Fiesta Bowl...lost to LSU)
2019: Memphis (Cotton Bowl...lost to Penn State)
2020: Cincinnati (Peach Bowl...lost to Georgia)
2021: Cincinnati (CFP Cotton Bowl....lost to Alabama)
AAC wins in bold
The revamped Sunbelt with a soon to be eligible James Madison...goes along with App State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Troy, South Alabama, etc...could challenge for top G5 champ some years.
I disagree. That 6th guaranteed playoff spot will create a new arms race and the AAC should win it in most years.
There are quite a few AAC programs ready to hire new coaches. All the AAC has to do is turn the lesser financed programs into their farm league and hire away their best coaches. Bigger budgets, larger coaching salary pools, better facilities, & larger markets with more lucrative NIL collectives should allow the AAC to secure the 6th spot in most years. I believe this is why Aresco was so insistent that the new additions commit to investing in their programs.
New CFP format that will start in 2024:
(1) 6 highest-ranked champs get AQs
(2) next 6 highest-ranked teams get At-Larges
(3) byes to top 4 conference champs
(4) 1st round at better seed
Oh wow, so this is the access G5 have been fighting for, damn, it came true...
And just in time for us to leave the G5. We make it if it's in effect in 2015.
(12-01-2022 09:27 AM)KnightLight Wrote: Since the AAC was formed...here were the members that made a BCS (under old contract for 2013 only) and NYD6 games:
2013: UCF (Fiesta Bowl...beat Big 12 Champ #6 Baylor)
2014: None...Boise State, beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl 2015: Houston (Peach Bowl...beat #9 FSU)
2016: None...Western Michigan...lost to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl 2017: UCF (Peach Bowl...beat Auburn)
2018: UCF (Fiesta Bowl...lost to LSU)
2019: Memphis (Cotton Bowl...lost to Penn State)
2020: Cincinnati (Peach Bowl...lost to Georgia)
2021: Cincinnati (CFP Cotton Bowl....lost to Alabama)
AAC wins in bold
The revamped Sunbelt with a soon to be eligible James Madison...goes along with App State, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Troy, South Alabama, etc...could challenge for top G5 champ some years.
I disagree. That 6th guaranteed playoff spot will create a new arms race and the AAC should win it in most years.
There are quite a few AAC programs ready to hire new coaches. All the AAC has to do is turn the lesser financed programs into their farm league and hire away their best coaches. Bigger budgets, larger coaching salary pools, better facilities, & larger markets with more lucrative NIL collectives should allow the AAC to secure the 6th spot in most years. I believe this is why Aresco was so insistent that the new additions commit to investing in their programs.
I agree with this, good points. Yes there will eventually be someone from another G5 will get the spot but we should have a pretty tight choke hold on it.
I also think people underestimate some important points
- Just how many teams have gone into the AAC and flourished in ways never done before. You're silly if you don't think at least a couple of schools from the 6 additions do the same. Teams like SMU, Memphis & Tulane have completely changed from what they once were for example.
- The overall opinion and view of our conference is that it is the six best and even sometimes higher than the Pac 12. We've seen this consistently from voters and it continues to this day. Yes we lost 3 schools but that's only going to make room for teams like Memphis, ECU, SMU, UTSA, Tulane etc. to have even better records and step up to the plate. I expect the overall view to stay the same.
Going forward, I guarantee you there will be years where the champ of the PAC 10, ACC or Big 12 will be ranked lower than a combination of Boise St / SDSU / SMU / Tulane/ Memphis etc. In other words, 2 of the top 6 ranked conference champs will be from the AAC & MWC. The concept of a P5, and its effect on recruiting, TV contract disparity, etc will fade.
(12-01-2022 02:00 PM)correcamino Wrote: I could see Liberty being in the mix on a yearly basis. They will run the newest iteration of CUSA, and depending on their OOC schedule could see them having a bunch of 0-2 loss seasons.
I can see future arguments about whether an undefeated/1 loss Liberty should get the nod over a 1 loss/2 loss AAC champion.
Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out-resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
And we out resource everyone in the G4
Liberty will be an interesting wild card over the next few years. I think everyone knows at this point that, with very little exception, on field performance follows spending.
When Liberty joins CUSA with a high-end AAC budget, likely ditching the majority of the gauntlet schedules they were putting together, they will probably do really well. It remains to be seen how a hypothetical 13-0 CUSA champ Liberty would be viewed in the eyes of the committee vs. an AAC with a loss(or even two) from a tougher schedule.
(12-01-2022 02:00 PM)correcamino Wrote: I could see Liberty being in the mix on a yearly basis. They will run the newest iteration of CUSA, and depending on their OOC schedule could see them having a bunch of 0-2 loss seasons.
I can see future arguments about whether an undefeated/1 loss Liberty should get the nod over a 1 loss/2 loss AAC champion.
Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out-resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
And we out resource everyone in the G4
Liberty will be an interesting wild card over the next few years. I think everyone knows at this point that, with very little exception, on field performance follows spending.
When Liberty joins CUSA with a high-end AAC budget, likely ditching the majority of the gauntlet schedules they were putting together, they will probably do really well. It remains to be seen how a hypothetical 13-0 CUSA champ Liberty would be viewed in the eyes of the committee vs. an AAC with a loss(or even two) from a tougher schedule.
Not mentioned much this week was the move Liberty made just earlier this season extending Freeze and adding a huge buyout to his contract. This was a deft move and will ensure more than enough $$ coming in to fund the next splash hire. Liberty will continue to be a player even if they take a half step back in the near term
(12-01-2022 05:04 PM)grapes Wrote: The College Football Playoff committee has spoken....
They view SIX conferences as worthy of getting an automatic bid...
Looking at the rankings throughout the years.. including this year..
It's no surprise who that 6th conference is..
#P6
(12-02-2022 08:11 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(12-01-2022 09:12 PM)CLTPirate Wrote:
(12-01-2022 02:24 PM)correcamino Wrote:
(12-01-2022 02:14 PM)TripleA Wrote:
(12-01-2022 02:00 PM)correcamino Wrote: I could see Liberty being in the mix on a yearly basis. They will run the newest iteration of CUSA, and depending on their OOC schedule could see them having a bunch of 0-2 loss seasons.
I can see future arguments about whether an undefeated/1 loss Liberty should get the nod over a 1 loss/2 loss AAC champion.
Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out-resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
And we out resource everyone in the G4
Liberty will be an interesting wild card over the next few years. I think everyone knows at this point that, with very little exception, on field performance follows spending.
When Liberty joins CUSA with a high-end AAC budget, likely ditching the majority of the gauntlet schedules they were putting together, they will probably do really well. It remains to be seen how a hypothetical 13-0 CUSA champ Liberty would be viewed in the eyes of the committee vs. an AAC with a loss(or even two) from a tougher schedule.
AAC teams need to try to schedule LU and kick their butts. End of of problem.
(12-01-2022 05:04 PM)grapes Wrote: The College Football Playoff committee has spoken....
They view SIX conferences as worthy of getting an automatic bid...
Looking at the rankings throughout the years.. including this year..
It's no surprise who that 6th conference is..
#P6
(12-02-2022 08:11 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:
(12-01-2022 09:12 PM)CLTPirate Wrote:
(12-01-2022 02:24 PM)correcamino Wrote:
(12-01-2022 02:14 PM)TripleA Wrote: Hugh Freeze just left Liberty.
He didn't take their money with him though. Yeah, they're weird but they can still easily out-resource everyone in CUSA. Like by a huge margin.
And we out resource everyone in the G4
Liberty will be an interesting wild card over the next few years. I think everyone knows at this point that, with very little exception, on field performance follows spending.
When Liberty joins CUSA with a high-end AAC budget, likely ditching the majority of the gauntlet schedules they were putting together, they will probably do really well. It remains to be seen how a hypothetical 13-0 CUSA champ Liberty would be viewed in the eyes of the committee vs. an AAC with a loss(or even two) from a tougher schedule.
AAC teams need to try to schedule LU and kick their butts. End of of problem.
Yea I don’t get the big deal with Liberty. Sure they have money but why on earth would anybody want to play at a program with no market and sub par academics? Simple solution for them to go 0-10000 against the AAC and that will be the end of that.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2022 11:18 AM by Thewavefan.)
