(11-29-2022 08:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

Based on the AP and Coaches, UTSA officially got screwed. NC State over them? Troy received more votes in the AP and Coaches poll than the Wolfpack. Does the CFP Committee watch Group of 5 conferences other than the AAC? NC State lost at home to Boston College!

Look at UTSA's results. They had a lot of close games. 5 wins by 6 or less against G5 teams with at least 5 losses. 3 of their big wins were vs. FCS, 3 win and 4 win teams. Their best win was 41-7 over 5-7 Rice or 45-30 over 7-5 MTSU. They lost to UH in OT and to Texas 41-20.

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

They might, given their history, put Alabama or Tennessee ahead of a 1 loss TCU, but its hard to justify unless its a big loss to KSU.

Ohio St. is rooting for Utah.

(11-29-2022 08:37 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It would have been different had:

1. LSU won
2. tOSU beat UM handily.

Bama could have stayed in the 6 range ready to jump both UM and LSU (after losing to UGa). USC losing to ND would have taken them out as well.

Bama vs UM would have been a lot more interesting had UM lost by 2 TD. tOSU also has the implicit bias that UM doesn't have.

You don't need implicit bias when you win almost every game by double digits. I'm no fan of the B1G or especially of tOSU, but any team in their situation would be extremely tough to pass for a 2 loss team. I think that any team from the B1G or SEC would be in the exact spot that tOSU is: in 5th with a chance to move up to 4th. And extremely flawed 2 loss teams like bama and Tennessee just don't have the resume to even be in that conversation.

Agree. It shouldn't be close.

(11-29-2022 08:48 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

Alabama didn't play Georgia. Tennessee did. So did Oregon (3-49).
Alabama lost the only two really important games they had. Alabama had a lot of penalties all season. They are very sloppy for a Saban team.

(11-29-2022 08:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

I'm disappointed and surprised that head to head, 2 enormously better wins, and a better record against common opponents didn't trump better losses in the Tennessee vs Bama debate. But I'm not mad about it, I'll freely admit that the Committee is more knowledgeable about CFB than I am.

I actually doubt that. They seem to ignore results on the field for phantom eyeball tests.

Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

(11-29-2022 09:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

I will say this. I know I've been (justifiably) singing UT's praises for the past few days, but I have failed to consider Hooker's ACL. Combine that with 2 losses in which Tennessee admittedly looked very bad and they left the door cracked for bama to back ahead of them. And Tennessee did win that game at home by 3 on a last second field goal. FSU looks like they're about the same quality as LSU, and that was basically a road win for FSU. Oregon had a 46 point loss, they can't complain about being 1 slot behind another 9-3 team that beat them. As far as Utah over Washington, that's a bit of a head scratcher as Utah has more losses, though their schedule was extremely difficult. It'd have made that one a tossup and given Washington the benefit of the doubt b/c they only had 2 losses.

One thing I will say with confidence is that if you switched Alabama's and Tennessee's seasons, Tennessee would be 6 and bama 7 right now. ie, I don't think this is pro-bama bias, just a slightly different emphasis than we perhaps expected on the penalty for bad loss(es).

Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

(11-29-2022 08:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:48 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

I don't think bama should have beaten A&M or Texas, they're lucky to not be 8-4.

If you want to discuss the relative strengths, I'd rather have Tennessee's top 2 wins over any of bama's 2 wins. Tennessee beat bama, and they dominated LSU on the road. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played, they were outplayed by the 3rd best team they played, and they were VERY lucky to escape a 5-7 A&M. Tennessee went 2-1 against the 3 best teams they played and were only outplayed by Georgia, which doesn't look bad on anyone's resume. It is possible that bama is ahead of Tennessee b/c Hooker is out for the year. That's a reasonable discussion point.

Tennessee wasn’t outplayed by South Carolina that beat them by 25? Using your close win logic, Tennessee barely beat a 6-6 Florida and it took overtime to beat Pittsburgh. Unlike Tennessee, Alabama didn’t get blown out in any loss. Their worst loss was by a field goal as time expired. I’m just pointing out reasons why I’m not surprised Alabama is ranked over Tennessee and why I wouldn’t think it would be surprising to others.

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

I will say this. I know I've been (justifiably) singing UT's praises for the past few days, but I have failed to consider Hooker's ACL. Combine that with 2 losses in which Tennessee admittedly looked very bad and they left the door cracked for bama to back ahead of them. And Tennessee did win that game at home by 3 on a last second field goal. FSU looks like they're about the same quality as LSU, and that was basically a road win for FSU. Oregon had a 46 point loss, they can't complain about being 1 slot behind another 9-3 team that beat them. As far as Utah over Washington, that's a bit of a head scratcher as Utah has more losses, though their schedule was extremely difficult. It'd have made that one a tossup and given Washington the benefit of the doubt b/c they only had 2 losses.

One thing I will say with confidence is that if you switched Alabama's and Tennessee's seasons, Tennessee would be 6 and bama 7 right now. ie, I don't think this is pro-bama bias, just a slightly different emphasis than we perhaps expected on the penalty for bad loss(es).

Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

No. They've just once again demonstrated names matter. Alabama is a bigger name than Tennessee. Just as Ohio St. is a bigger name than TCU or Penn St. as has been demonstrated in the past.

With the eyeball test, they look at talent, not necessarily how good they are as a team.

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:50 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:48 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

I don't think bama should have beaten A&M or Texas, they're lucky to not be 8-4.

If you want to discuss the relative strengths, I'd rather have Tennessee's top 2 wins over any of bama's 2 wins. Tennessee beat bama, and they dominated LSU on the road. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played, they were outplayed by the 3rd best team they played, and they were VERY lucky to escape a 5-7 A&M. Tennessee went 2-1 against the 3 best teams they played and were only outplayed by Georgia, which doesn't look bad on anyone's resume. It is possible that bama is ahead of Tennessee b/c Hooker is out for the year. That's a reasonable discussion point.

Tennessee wasn’t outplayed by South Carolina that beat them by 25? Using your close win logic, Tennessee barely beat a 6-6 Florida and it took overtime to beat Pittsburgh. Unlike Tennessee, Alabama didn’t get blown out in any loss. Their worst loss was by a field goal as time expired. I’m just pointing out reasons why I’m not surprised Alabama is ranked over Tennessee and why I wouldn’t think it would be surprising to others.

I edited my post above. I still would pick Tennessee over bama, but "bad losses hurts your ranking more than good wins help it" is a legitimate criteria to use.

(11-29-2022 09:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

I will say this. I know I've been (justifiably) singing UT's praises for the past few days, but I have failed to consider Hooker's ACL. Combine that with 2 losses in which Tennessee admittedly looked very bad and they left the door cracked for bama to back ahead of them. And Tennessee did win that game at home by 3 on a last second field goal. FSU looks like they're about the same quality as LSU, and that was basically a road win for FSU. Oregon had a 46 point loss, they can't complain about being 1 slot behind another 9-3 team that beat them. As far as Utah over Washington, that's a bit of a head scratcher as Utah has more losses, though their schedule was extremely difficult. It'd have made that one a tossup and given Washington the benefit of the doubt b/c they only had 2 losses.

One thing I will say with confidence is that if you switched Alabama's and Tennessee's seasons, Tennessee would be 6 and bama 7 right now. ie, I don't think this is pro-bama bias, just a slightly different emphasis than we perhaps expected on the penalty for bad loss(es).

Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

No. They've just once again demonstrated names matter. Alabama is a bigger name than Tennessee. Just as Ohio St. is a bigger name than TCU or Penn St. as has been demonstrated in the past.

With the eyeball test, they look at talent, not necessarily how good they are as a team.

When has the "eyeball test" pushed the #4 team down to 5th though? I thought that the eyeball test could have pushed A&M ahead of ND a couple years ago, but they did go 1-1 against Clemson and play for the ACC title that year. In other years, the eyeball test has been more about game control, good wins and/or bad losses. With 40 points worth of losses and their stud QB out for the year, plus some other close wins, Tennessee opened the door for a bama team with 2 very tight losses to sneak past them. I still don't agree with it, but in light of the polls also ranking Alabama higher it's clearly not a sign of bias. I actually think it's just as weird that Utah with 3 losses is ahead of UW with 2 losses. Utah does have a tougher schedule and the head to head win, 3 close losses, and the best 2 wins though, so perhaps it's not that surprising.

(11-29-2022 08:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

I'm disappointed and surprised that head to head, 2 enormously better wins, and a better record against common opponents didn't trump better losses in the Tennessee vs Bama debate. But I'm not mad about it, I'll freely admit that the Committee is more knowledgeable about CFB than I am.

Call it recency bias if you want, but Tennessee with Hendon Hooker is the team that beat Bama and LSU. That's not the Tennessee available to put into the CFP race.

(11-29-2022 09:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

I will say this. I know I've been (justifiably) singing UT's praises for the past few days, but I have failed to consider Hooker's ACL. Combine that with 2 losses in which Tennessee admittedly looked very bad and they left the door cracked for bama to back ahead of them. And Tennessee did win that game at home by 3 on a last second field goal. FSU looks like they're about the same quality as LSU, and that was basically a road win for FSU. Oregon had a 46 point loss, they can't complain about being 1 slot behind another 9-3 team that beat them. As far as Utah over Washington, that's a bit of a head scratcher as Utah has more losses, though their schedule was extremely difficult. It'd have made that one a tossup and given Washington the benefit of the doubt b/c they only had 2 losses.

One thing I will say with confidence is that if you switched Alabama's and Tennessee's seasons, Tennessee would be 6 and bama 7 right now. ie, I don't think this is pro-bama bias, just a slightly different emphasis than we perhaps expected on the penalty for bad loss(es).

Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

No. They've just once again demonstrated names matter. Alabama is a bigger name than Tennessee. Just as Ohio St. is a bigger name than TCU or Penn St. as has been demonstrated in the past.

With the eyeball test, they look at talent, not necessarily how good they are as a team.

When has the "eyeball test" pushed the #4 team down to 5th though? I thought that the eyeball test could have pushed A&M ahead of ND a couple years ago, but they did go 1-1 against Clemson and play for the ACC title that year. In other years, the eyeball test has been more about game control, good wins and/or bad losses. With 40 points worth of losses and their stud QB out for the year, plus some other close wins, Tennessee opened the door for a bama team with 2 very tight losses to sneak past them. I still don't agree with it, but in light of the polls also ranking Alabama higher it's clearly not a sign of bias. I actually think it's just as weird that Utah with 3 losses is ahead of UW with 2 losses. Utah does have a tougher schedule and the head to head win, 3 close losses, and the best 2 wins though, so perhaps it's not that surprising.

UW has hardly played anyone. They got a bigger break on the schedule than USC.
I can't recall a single bad loss knocking anyone down significantly. But a single good win does elevate them.

(11-29-2022 07:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  They followed the consensus. I guess recency bias hit Ohio St.

Really think they have a better resume than USC and I would definitely take them head to head.

I see it differently - I'm disappointed Ohio State didn't fall to #6. I would have them behind Alabama as "first up" if TCU or USC falters. Though these are the top six I expected.

Ohio State is loaded with talent. I thought that Georgia and Ohio State would meet in the national championship game this season. But there is something that is not quite right at Ohio State. You could see it last year in their losses to Oregon and Michigan. They barely got by Utah in the Rose Bowl. The year before they got crushed by Alabama in the CFP Championship. Blowing out schools like Rutgers and Indiana is what you expect with their talent.

As for USC, they are very good offensively and very suspect defensively. The strength of the Trojans is Caleb Williams, who I think will be the first pick in the 2024 NFL draft. He is only a sophomore. He is a special talent. A combination of Drew Brees and Patrick Mahomes. USC has been living off the opponent beating themselves. They have an amazing +23 turnover margin.

If Ohio State was playing as well as they could, I would take them over USC. But this Ohio State team can be beat.

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

Bama vs. Tennessee rankings still matter for bowls. The higher one is likely in the Sugar vs. Kansas State and the lower in the Orange vs. Clemsom/North Carolina. The bowls don't have to go that way, but usually take highest avaialble replacement and the Sugar takes first. That matters less if we are talking Clemson, but if it is North Carolina that will be seen as lesser for the year.

(11-29-2022 08:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 07:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Tulane-UCF is now officially for the access slot.

Based on the AP and Coaches, UTSA officially got screwed. NC State over them? Troy received more votes in the AP and Coaches poll than the Wolfpack. Does the CFP Committee watch Group of 5 conferences other than the AAC? NC State lost at home to Boston College!

UTSA has no business being ranked. The CFP ranking didn't screw them over the AP and Coaches just rewarded them for doing nothing noteworthy.

(11-29-2022 09:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 09:08 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Utah a spot above Washington
Florida State a spot above LSU
Oregon St a spot above Oregon
Tennessee a spot above… wait, what?

I did think OSU>USC would have been defensible, given the Trojans haven’t actually won anything yet. Also expected Alabama to slip a spot due to head-to-head. Agree it would be a travesty if that is the 4/5 break.

I will say this. I know I've been (justifiably) singing UT's praises for the past few days, but I have failed to consider Hooker's ACL. Combine that with 2 losses in which Tennessee admittedly looked very bad and they left the door cracked for bama to back ahead of them. And Tennessee did win that game at home by 3 on a last second field goal. FSU looks like they're about the same quality as LSU, and that was basically a road win for FSU. Oregon had a 46 point loss, they can't complain about being 1 slot behind another 9-3 team that beat them. As far as Utah over Washington, that's a bit of a head scratcher as Utah has more losses, though their schedule was extremely difficult. It'd have made that one a tossup and given Washington the benefit of the doubt b/c they only had 2 losses.

One thing I will say with confidence is that if you switched Alabama's and Tennessee's seasons, Tennessee would be 6 and bama 7 right now. ie, I don't think this is pro-bama bias, just a slightly different emphasis than we perhaps expected on the penalty for bad loss(es).

Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

No. They've just once again demonstrated names matter. Alabama is a bigger name than Tennessee. Just as Ohio St. is a bigger name than TCU or Penn St. as has been demonstrated in the past.

With the eyeball test, they look at talent, not necessarily how good they are as a team.

When has the "eyeball test" pushed the #4 team down to 5th though? I thought that the eyeball test could have pushed A&M ahead of ND a couple years ago, but they did go 1-1 against Clemson and play for the ACC title that year. In other years, the eyeball test has been more about game control, good wins and/or bad losses. With 40 points worth of losses and their stud QB out for the year, plus some other close wins, Tennessee opened the door for a bama team with 2 very tight losses to sneak past them. I still don't agree with it, but in light of the polls also ranking Alabama higher it's clearly not a sign of bias. I actually think it's just as weird that Utah with 3 losses is ahead of UW with 2 losses. Utah does have a tougher schedule and the head to head win, 3 close losses, and the best 2 wins though, so perhaps it's not that surprising.

UW has hardly played anyone. They got a bigger break on the schedule than USC.
I can't recall a single bad loss knocking anyone down significantly. But a single good win does elevate them.

single bad loss kept out tOSU a few years ago. Iowa smoked them and they got left out.

edit: they lost to OU that year too, I was thinking of 2018 when Purdue beat them by 29.

(11-29-2022 09:19 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Looking at USC being ahead of tOSU despite tOSU's better win (and loss against a much tougher team), combined with bama being ranked ahead of Tennessee, I guess we can perhaps say that what we've learned this year is that lopsided losses are more damaging that good wins are helpful?

In the case of Ohio State vs. USC, don't forget the Committee does respect the Pac 12 a little more than usual this year as they have 5 teams in their top 16. Now USC missed both Oregon and Washington this year (they caught a huge break when Oregon State came back to beat Oregon and improved their resume as opposed to Oregon winning and even better not have to play them in Las Vegas because in 2020 they screwed them over that year as well as Utah in 2019) but they also beat Notre Dame. USC doesn't have the top win Ohio State has (Penn State) but they do have more CFP Top 25 wins than the Buckeyes do.

I think TCU is in even with a close (<10 pts.) loss on Saturday. A blowout loss would be a different story.

Southern Cal really is right on the fence, imho. I think if they lose to UU, they’re out.

(11-29-2022 08:48 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-29-2022 08:29 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm still surprised that they slotted bama over Tennessee, but fortunately it doesn't matter. If it came down to the 4/5 slot though it would be a travesty.

Ks St at #10 is huge I think, they'd likely climb a couple with a neutral site win over TCU, putting TCU 1-1 against top 10 teams. That combined with their solid overall schedule from top to bottom would give them a solid argument in a theoretical 4/5 argument against tOSU if they lose respectably this weekend, and an undeniable argument in a 4 way battle with USC/bama/Tennessee for the 4th spot if both USC and TCU lose.

The refs were terrible in the Tennessee Alabama game. Alabama also committed a ton of penalties. A perfect storm of things happened for Tennessee to edge out Bama by 3 on a FG as time expired at home in front of over 100,000 Tennessee fans. Do you think Bama wouldn’t be favored to win a rematch on a neutral field? I think they would and probably the committee does too and that’s probably a big part of why Alabama is ahead of Tennessee. The other part is instead of losing by 1 and 3 on the last play of the game like Alabama did, Tennessee lost by 14 and 25. I’m not sure what’s to be surprised about.

Yeah, I struggle with people valuing things like H2H and common opponents over the way that teams lost.

As you note, Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road in very hostile environments. IIRC they were both within the margin of points a team typically gets for having HFA.

Tennessee was gob-smacked not once, like Ohio State was, but twice. Just obliterated. And IMO, when you get manhandled and dominated, that doesn't pass the smell/giggle test for a playoff team. Not very scientific and quantitative, LOL, but real nonetheless, IMO.

So IMO, Alabama > Tennessee is easy as pie to call.