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CFP November 29th
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bryanw1995 Online
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Post: #161
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 01:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:48 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:16 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 12:17 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:39 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  I'm I biased TCU guy, but I agree. While I never fully bought into Wetzel's argument that the CCG should only count for seeding (and the corollary that teams who fail to make their CCG shouldn't be rewarded for that failure), I do think when you look at the committee's "body of work" a loss to a top 7 or 8 team in a CCG in OT (to a team the team beat before, no less) is not going to be a big negative when re-evaluating the resumes. I don't even think it is enough of a negative to have idle Ohio State pass us either. I am expecting #3.

I'm biased in favor of any SEC team, including bama, but this is just not our year to get 2 teams in. TCU is probably better than tOSU and clearly far better than bama. Which is ok, we're a threat to do it every year, and Georgia is still far and away the best team. I can live with that.

Come on. No sane person thinks TCU is better than Ohio State and far better than Bama. Before the season started, Bama was ranked #1 in the nation in the AP Poll and Ohio State #2. TCU was unranked and did not get any votes. The 2022 recruiting class, per 247sports.com rankings, had Bama #2, Ohio State #4, and TCU #45. Beating a 7-5 Oklahoma State in double overtime or a 6-6 Baylor team on a last second field goal does not equate to being as good as Bama or Ohio State.

Quite a few sane people think TCU is better. There is no universal truth as to who’s better.

Ohio St barely beat 1-11 Northwestern, who lost to a 5-6 FCS team. How come that eluded your post? Why are you cherry-picking TCU barely beating Okie St/Baylor - which are far superior to Ohio St edging out 1-11 Northwestern?

Ohio State beat Northwestern 21-7, and led them from midway through the 3rd quarter on. Not their best performance, but not in the same galaxy as having to run a kicker on to the field as time expires to win, IMO.

I just don't know how anyone can look at the talent TCU has and think they could survive a game with Ohio State or Alabama. They didn't play anyone with their talent rosters all year. The Big 12 just doesn't have that.

Just MO.

How did A&M lose to Appalachian State (at home!) if it was all about the talent? You pretend that football games are played in Jeff Sagarin's computer farm.
12-04-2022 02:27 AM
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Post: #162
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 02:27 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:48 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:16 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 12:17 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I'm biased in favor of any SEC team, including bama, but this is just not our year to get 2 teams in. TCU is probably better than tOSU and clearly far better than bama. Which is ok, we're a threat to do it every year, and Georgia is still far and away the best team. I can live with that.

Come on. No sane person thinks TCU is better than Ohio State and far better than Bama. Before the season started, Bama was ranked #1 in the nation in the AP Poll and Ohio State #2. TCU was unranked and did not get any votes. The 2022 recruiting class, per 247sports.com rankings, had Bama #2, Ohio State #4, and TCU #45. Beating a 7-5 Oklahoma State in double overtime or a 6-6 Baylor team on a last second field goal does not equate to being as good as Bama or Ohio State.

Quite a few sane people think TCU is better. There is no universal truth as to who’s better.

Ohio St barely beat 1-11 Northwestern, who lost to a 5-6 FCS team. How come that eluded your post? Why are you cherry-picking TCU barely beating Okie St/Baylor - which are far superior to Ohio St edging out 1-11 Northwestern?

Ohio State beat Northwestern 21-7, and led them from midway through the 3rd quarter on. Not their best performance, but not in the same galaxy as having to run a kicker on to the field as time expires to win, IMO.

I just don't know how anyone can look at the talent TCU has and think they could survive a game with Ohio State or Alabama. They didn't play anyone with their talent rosters all year. The Big 12 just doesn't have that.

Just MO.

How did A&M lose to Appalachian State (at home!) if it was all about the talent? You pretend that football games are played in Jeff Sagarin's computer farm.

Or Notre Dame to Marshall. Or Notre Dame to Stanford,.....
12-04-2022 02:29 AM
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Post: #163
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 01:16 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 12:17 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:39 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I'm a biased Bama guy, but TCU did more than enough today. I could even see leaving them in the #3 spot.

I'm I biased TCU guy, but I agree. While I never fully bought into Wetzel's argument that the CCG should only count for seeding (and the corollary that teams who fail to make their CCG shouldn't be rewarded for that failure), I do think when you look at the committee's "body of work" a loss to a top 7 or 8 team in a CCG in OT (to a team the team beat before, no less) is not going to be a big negative when re-evaluating the resumes. I don't even think it is enough of a negative to have idle Ohio State pass us either. I am expecting #3.

I'm biased in favor of any SEC team, including bama, but this is just not our year to get 2 teams in. TCU is probably better than tOSU and clearly far better than bama. Which is ok, we're a threat to do it every year, and Georgia is still far and away the best team. I can live with that.

Come on. No sane person thinks TCU is better than Ohio State and far better than Bama. Before the season started, Bama was ranked #1 in the nation in the AP Poll and Ohio State #2. TCU was unranked and did not get any votes. The 2022 recruiting class, per 247sports.com rankings, had Bama #2, Ohio State #4, and TCU #45. Beating a 7-5 Oklahoma State in double overtime or a 6-6 Baylor team on a last second field goal does not equate to being as good as Bama or Ohio State.


why play the season then?

and you're trashing TCU for last second wins, while ignoring Alabama's last second losses.
12-04-2022 05:13 AM
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Post: #164
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 01:16 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 12:17 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:39 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I'm a biased Bama guy, but TCU did more than enough today. I could even see leaving them in the #3 spot.

I'm I biased TCU guy, but I agree. While I never fully bought into Wetzel's argument that the CCG should only count for seeding (and the corollary that teams who fail to make their CCG shouldn't be rewarded for that failure), I do think when you look at the committee's "body of work" a loss to a top 7 or 8 team in a CCG in OT (to a team the team beat before, no less) is not going to be a big negative when re-evaluating the resumes. I don't even think it is enough of a negative to have idle Ohio State pass us either. I am expecting #3.

I'm biased in favor of any SEC team, including bama, but this is just not our year to get 2 teams in. TCU is probably better than tOSU and clearly far better than bama. Which is ok, we're a threat to do it every year, and Georgia is still far and away the best team. I can live with that.

Come on. No sane person thinks TCU is better than Ohio State and far better than Bama. Before the season started, Bama was ranked #1 in the nation in the AP Poll and Ohio State #2. TCU was unranked and did not get any votes. The 2022 recruiting class, per 247sports.com rankings, had Bama #2, Ohio State #4, and TCU #45. Beating a 7-5 Oklahoma State in double overtime or a 6-6 Baylor team on a last second field goal does not equate to being as good as Bama or Ohio State.
If you’re basing your argument on preseason or recruiting rankings in your argument, has no validity
12-04-2022 06:43 AM
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Post: #165
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.
12-04-2022 07:58 AM
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Post: #166
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 01:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 01:16 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 12:17 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:39 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(12-03-2022 08:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I'm a biased Bama guy, but TCU did more than enough today. I could even see leaving them in the #3 spot.

I'm I biased TCU guy, but I agree. While I never fully bought into Wetzel's argument that the CCG should only count for seeding (and the corollary that teams who fail to make their CCG shouldn't be rewarded for that failure), I do think when you look at the committee's "body of work" a loss to a top 7 or 8 team in a CCG in OT (to a team the team beat before, no less) is not going to be a big negative when re-evaluating the resumes. I don't even think it is enough of a negative to have idle Ohio State pass us either. I am expecting #3.

I'm biased in favor of any SEC team, including bama, but this is just not our year to get 2 teams in. TCU is probably better than tOSU and clearly far better than bama. Which is ok, we're a threat to do it every year, and Georgia is still far and away the best team. I can live with that.

Come on. No sane person thinks TCU is better than Ohio State and far better than Bama. Before the season started, Bama was ranked #1 in the nation in the AP Poll and Ohio State #2. TCU was unranked and did not get any votes. The 2022 recruiting class, per 247sports.com rankings, had Bama #2, Ohio State #4, and TCU #45. Beating a 7-5 Oklahoma State in double overtime or a 6-6 Baylor team on a last second field goal does not equate to being as good as Bama or Ohio State.

And everything you have said is totally irrelevant.

Otherwise, USC would have dominated the Pac 12 the last 10 years.
UCLA wouldn't be nearly a quarter century without a Pac 12 title.
FSU wouldn't be an also ran so much in the ACC.
LSU wouldn't have had a losing record for 2020 and 2021 combined.
Michigan wouldn't have been mediocre in the Big 10 in the six or seven years before Harbaugh.

Talent doesn't always win - a team with more talent can have bad coaching, or internal strife that makes them vulnerable and leads to losses. Last year, LSU had plenty of talent but the Orgeron coaching regime was a total mess. Coaching matters greatly and poor coaching can squander talent.

But talent usually wins - it's no surprise that the teams that win the national title are typically loaded with NFL talent. They have a talent profile much more like Alabama this year, not anything like TCU's.

And IMO, Alabama doesn't have the coaching or internal problems that makes a much more talented team vulnerable.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2022 08:18 AM by quo vadis.)
12-04-2022 08:16 AM
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Post: #167
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 07:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.

The ironic thing in retrospect Cincinnati had the best player on the field in that game in Sauce Gardner …. Absolute beast in the NFL and likely All Pro for the Jets.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2022 08:21 AM by Maize.)
12-04-2022 08:20 AM
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Post: #168
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 08:20 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 07:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.

The ironic thing in retrospect Cincinnati had the best player on the field in that game in Sauce Gardner …. Absolute beast in the NFL and likely All Pro for the Jets.

Yeah, he was/is really good. But that's one guy.

I think Saban recognized that too - IMO, the Alabama game plan on offense was to take Sauce, and the other ball hawks Cincy had in the secondary, out of the game by running the ball. I remember when, after the game, Cincy fans boasted about how Sauce had taken the best Alabama WR out of the game, I said that they had it backwards, that Alabama had taken Sauce out of the game by not throwing at him and giving him a chance to make big plays. Sauce can't hurt you if you are running for 300 yards.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2022 08:33 AM by quo vadis.)
12-04-2022 08:31 AM
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Post: #169
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 08:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 08:20 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 07:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.

The ironic thing in retrospect Cincinnati had the best player on the field in that game in Sauce Gardner …. Absolute beast in the NFL and likely All Pro for the Jets.

Yeah, he was/is really good. But that's one guy.

I think Saban recognized that too - IMO, the Alabama game plan on offense was to take Sauce, and the other ball hawks Cincy had in the secondary, out of the game by running the ball. I remember when, after the game, Cincy fans boasted about how Sauce had taken the best Alabama WR out of the game, I said that they had it backwards, that Alabama had taken Sauce out of the game by not throwing at him and giving him a chance to make big plays. Sauce can't hurt you if you are running for 300 yards.

You definitely take their key players out. Coaching rec league girl's basketball, I had my best and tallest player play outside on offense so the best player in the league guarded her outside the lane. The rest of that team couldn't match up one on one with my girls and we feasted. But when their top player helped out in the middle, they were much tougher.
12-04-2022 12:03 PM
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Post: #170
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 07:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.

Clearly the CFP committee disagrees with you.

edit: regarding the potential for a rematch:

Corrigan said the committee did not make any special effort to avoid having a rematch of Ohio State and Michigan in a semifinal. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have never played outside of their annual regular-season game in a rivalry that dates back to 1902.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2022 02:51 PM by bryanw1995.)
12-04-2022 02:39 PM
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Post: #171
RE: CFP November 29th
(12-04-2022 02:39 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 07:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-04-2022 02:15 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's apparent UGa TCU will be a bloodbath. It may be a bloodbath with Bama as well, but much more likely with TCU. But that doesn't matter. TCU has enough key wins on the schedule and played a great game today. Just didn't make the plays at the end.

I'd love to see Bama get in there, but I'd have been much more angry had TCU lost by three scores. After they forced some turnovers and came back to tie, it was enough. You have to reward what you see on the field at the end of the day. Bama was a couple of plays away from a win in Tenn/LSU and didn't come out on top. It's unfortunate, but let's see if TCU gets demoted to 4 first. UGa v TCU game in Atlanta has disaster all over it, but it's also possible they can do what Cincinnati did last year against Bama and keep it competitive.

Let's keep in mind UC almost beat UGa in Dec/Jan 21' and remained competitive versus Bama despite being G5. While TCU may not have that type of talent, it's possible they play a competitive game against UGa. Certainly they can against UM who can't be trusted in a big spot.

I agree with the bolded.

Alabama was has the talent to give Georgia a good game, possibly even beat them. They might not, Georgia might beat them badly, but it's possible.

TCU just doesn't have anything like the coaching or the talent to do that, IMO. That's what I think based on viewing TCU on the field. They don't have that much talent, but were fortunate to play other B12 teams with the same.

As for Cincy, I'm not sure how competitive Alabama's 27-6 win was last year. IMO after the first few minutes, it was obvious who was going to win.

Clearly the CFP committee disagrees with you.

edit: regarding the potential for a rematch:

Corrigan said the committee did not make any special effort to avoid having a rematch of Ohio State and Michigan in a semifinal. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have never played outside of their annual regular-season game in a rivalry that dates back to 1902.

Nobody discussed it. Doesn't mean when its close some people in their mind don't give the benefit of a doubt to the team that doesn't create a rematch.
12-04-2022 03:03 PM
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Post: #172
RE: CFP November 29th
CFP will say whatever in public to justify what it decides in private.

No point in emphasizing anything they say. Whatever they say is valid today and today only. All future decisions (and past) are made on equally eclectic, variable and undocumented reasons to achieve the ascetic desired that day.
12-04-2022 03:59 PM
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