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2022 Bowl Projections
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 04:02 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  NM State is bowl bound!

https://fbschedules.com/new-mexico-state...-decision/

Well, that's not how I would have ruled, but that's awesome for NM State! That makes 80 bowl eligible teams.

So by my reckoning, that means Rice is in for sure (APR), and the last spot will come down to Buffalo or UNLV. If Buffalo beats Akron tomorrow, they are in and UNLV is out, if Buffalo loses, UNLV is in.

Today's decision by the NCAA effectively eliminated Auburn from a possible bowl game.

I think, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2022 04:12 PM by quo vadis.)
12-01-2022 04:10 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 03:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 03:38 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-30-2022 02:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing I'd say is a lock to happen..... If Michigan beats Purdue....

Rose Bowl would take Penn St instead of Ohio St. Close enough so they're allowed to do that.

That would then send Ohio St to the Orange Bowl to play Clemson. Tennessee would be the team stuck if you will in the Cotton Bowl.

Big Ten would be encouraging that so that Penn St doesn't have to play Tulane.

On the other hand,

If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl, they lose the Reliaquest Bowl spot to the ACC.
If they play in the Cotton Bowl, they keep it.

So Rose and Cotton payout wise is the best for the Big Ten.

not even remotely close to the same.
option 1- Penn St Rose, Ohio St Orange. Orange pays out 27.5 million dollars
option 2- Ohio St Rose, Penn St Cotton ? to Reliaquest. Cotton pays out 6 million. other bowl pays out maybe 5 million.

27.5 is far greater than 11 million.

Why would the Cotton pay way less than the Orange if they are both NY6 bowls?

because they're different type of bowls. Orange is a contract bowl. Cotton is an access bowl.
12-01-2022 04:15 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 04:10 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 04:02 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  NM State is bowl bound!

https://fbschedules.com/new-mexico-state...-decision/

Well, that's not how I would have ruled, but that's awesome for NM State! That makes 80 bowl eligible teams.

So by my reckoning, that means Rice is in for sure (APR), and the last spot will come down to Buffalo or UNLV. If Buffalo beats Akron tomorrow, they are in and UNLV is out, if Buffalo loses, UNLV is in.

Today's decision by the NCAA effectively eliminated Auburn from a possible bowl game.

I think, LOL.

So New Mexico St beats Freeze 2x in the span of a week basically. lol.
12-01-2022 04:15 PM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 04:02 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  NM State is bowl bound!

https://fbschedules.com/new-mexico-state...-decision/

So this is how the game with San Jose St happens? Works for me.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2022 09:39 PM by whittx.)
12-01-2022 09:39 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 09:39 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 04:02 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  NM State is bowl bound!

https://fbschedules.com/new-mexico-state...-decision/

So this is how the game with San Jose St happens? Works for me.

Yup - perfect matchup
12-02-2022 11:24 AM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-01-2022 04:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 03:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-01-2022 03:38 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-30-2022 02:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing I'd say is a lock to happen..... If Michigan beats Purdue....

Rose Bowl would take Penn St instead of Ohio St. Close enough so they're allowed to do that.

That would then send Ohio St to the Orange Bowl to play Clemson. Tennessee would be the team stuck if you will in the Cotton Bowl.

Big Ten would be encouraging that so that Penn St doesn't have to play Tulane.

On the other hand,

If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl, they lose the Reliaquest Bowl spot to the ACC.
If they play in the Cotton Bowl, they keep it.

So Rose and Cotton payout wise is the best for the Big Ten.

not even remotely close to the same.
option 1- Penn St Rose, Ohio St Orange. Orange pays out 27.5 million dollars
option 2- Ohio St Rose, Penn St Cotton ? to Reliaquest. Cotton pays out 6 million. other bowl pays out maybe 5 million.

27.5 is far greater than 11 million.

Why would the Cotton pay way less than the Orange if they are both NY6 bowls?

because they're different type of bowls. Orange is a contract bowl. Cotton is an access bowl.

Are you sure about this? I haven't been able to track down payouts for these bowls, but everything I've found lists the Cotton Bowl as a contract bowl along with the Orange Bowl. Now the CFP pool bowls payout higher, but only in years that there is a CFP game occurring at that bowl.

Also, if the payout was only 6 million for the Cotton Bowl, that would mean it pays out less than the Holiday Bowl, the Texas Bowl, the Cheez-it Bowl, the Alamo Bowl, the Reliaquest Bowl, and the Citrus Bowl, all of which are not contract bowls. That doesn't seem accurate to me.

https://businessofcollegesports.com/coll...f-payouts/

https://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl-schedule/2022/
12-02-2022 03:54 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.
12-02-2022 03:59 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-02-2022 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.

So, based on that it would also be $4 million for the Orange Bowl as well. And all CFP invitees receive about $2 million less than a Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl invite.
12-02-2022 04:06 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #49
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-02-2022 04:06 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.

So, based on that it would also be $4 million for the Orange Bowl as well. And all CFP invitees receive about $2 million less than a Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl invite.

No, the three Contract Bowls (Orange, Sugar, Orange) also pay the conference that sends a team in years they are not CFP semi-finals. The CFP doesn't pay that extra money, the Contract Bowls do ... agreeing on the terms of that payment is a big part of what the "Contract" is all about.
12-02-2022 04:11 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-02-2022 04:06 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.

So, based on that it would also be $4 million for the Orange Bowl as well. And all CFP invitees receive about $2 million less than a Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl invite.

Nope. Big Ten is in the contract with the Orange Bowl along with Notre Dame and the SEC. In the years when Big Ten or SEC team goes to the Orange Bowl- it's 27.5 million for both the ACC and Big Ten/SEC team. (if ND ever went, that'd be only 15 million for them).
12-02-2022 04:25 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #51
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-02-2022 04:11 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 04:06 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.

So, based on that it would also be $4 million for the Orange Bowl as well. And all CFP invitees receive about $2 million less than a Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl invite.

No, the three Contract Bowls (Orange, Sugar, Orange) also pay the conference that sends a team in years they are not CFP semi-finals. The CFP doesn't pay that extra money, the Contract Bowls do ... agreeing on the terms of that payment is a big part of what the "Contract" is all about.

But if that is true and the Cotton is one of the four contract bowls this year (Rose, Cotton, Sugar, and Orange - see link above) then that means that the Cotton Bowl also provides payment based on what the "Contract" is all about? So, not $4 million then....
12-02-2022 04:33 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
(12-02-2022 04:33 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 04:11 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 04:06 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-02-2022 03:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  from the Business of College sports thing:
Each conference receives $6 million from the College Football Playoff for each team selected for a semifinal game and $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the College Football Playoff.

So it's 4 million actually for the Cotton Bowl.

So, based on that it would also be $4 million for the Orange Bowl as well. And all CFP invitees receive about $2 million less than a Alamo Bowl or Citrus Bowl invite.

No, the three Contract Bowls (Orange, Sugar, Orange) also pay the conference that sends a team in years they are not CFP semi-finals. The CFP doesn't pay that extra money, the Contract Bowls do ... agreeing on the terms of that payment is a big part of what the "Contract" is all about.

But if that is true and the Cotton is one of the four contract bowls this year (Rose, Cotton, Sugar, and Orange - see link above) then that means that the Cotton Bowl also provides payment based on what the "Contract" is all about? So, not $4 million then....

No, "contract bowls" does not mean "the bowls that are not hosting SF game", it means "the three bowls that have contracted conference tie-ins when they are NOT Semi-Final bowls."

There are three Contract Bowls. One year, none of them are SF and they all pay out to their contracted conferences. One year, the Orange Bowl is a SF and only the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl pay out. One year, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl pay out, and only the Orange Bowl pays out.

The other three are Access Bowls -- they are at-large when they are not hosting SF games. This year, with two Access Bowls hosting Semi-Finals, there is only one Access Bowl, so the best Go5 champion will play there against an at-large pick from the P5.

There is no contract affiliation between the Cotton Bowl and any contract conference, so the teams that go there only get the CFP payment.
12-02-2022 04:52 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #53
RE: 2022 Bowl Projections
Correct projections in bold

(11-27-2022 07:08 PM)schmolik Wrote:  With one week to go,

Playoff:

Fiesta Bowl: Dec. 31, 1st Semifinal: #2 Michigan (13-0) vs. #3 TCU (13-0)

Peach Bowl: Dec. 31, 2nd Semifinal: #1 Georgia (13-0) vs. #4 USC (!2-1)

New Year's Six:

Rose Bowl: Jan. 2, 5pm: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Washington (10-2)

Sugar Bowl: Dec. 31, noon: Tennessee (10-2) vs. Kansas State (9-4)

Orange Bowl: Dec. 30, 8pm: Clemson (11-2) vs. Alabama (10-2)

Cotton Bowl: Jan. 2, 1pm: Tulane (11-2) vs. Penn State (10-2)

Citrus Bowl: Jan. 2, 1pm: Purdue (8-5) vs. LSU (9-4)

Relia Quest Bowl: Jan. 2, 12:30pm: Illinois (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4)

Music City Bowl (Nashville): Dec. 31, noon: Maryland (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Duke's Mayo Bowl (Charlotte): Dec. 30, noon: Minnesota (8-4) vs. NC State (8-4)

Sun Bowl: Dec. 30, 2pm: Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Washington State (7-5)

Gator Bowl: Dec. 30, 3:30pm: Mississippi (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

Arizona Bowl: Dec. 30, 4:30pm: Fresno State (8-5) vs. Toledo (7-6)

Pinstripe Bowl: Dec. 29. 2pm: Iowa (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5)

CheezIt Bowl: Dec. 29, 5:30pm: Florida State (9-3) vs. Oklahoma State (7-5)

Alamo Bowl: Dec. 29, 9pm: UCLA (9-3) vs. Texas (8-4)

Military Bowl: Dec. 28, 2pm: Duke (8-4) vs. Houston (7-5)

Liberty Bowl: Dec. 28, 5:30pm: Arkansas (6-6) vs. Oklahoma (6-6)

Holiday Bowl: Dec. 28, 8pm: North Carolina (9-4) vs. Oregon State (9-3)

Texas Bowl (Houston): Dec. 28, 9pm: Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

Camelia Bowl (Montgomery): Dec. 27, noon: Bowling Green (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (6-6)

First Responder Bowl (Dallas): Dec. 27: Kansas (6-6) vs. Utah State (6-6)

Birmingham Bowl: Dec. 27, TBD: Missouri (6-6) vs. UCF (9-3)

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix): Dec. 27, 10:15pm: Wisconsin (6-6) vs. Baylor (6-6)

Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit): Dec. 26, 2:30pm: Eastern Michigan (8-4) vs. Open

Hawaii Bowl: Dec. 24, 8pm: San Diego State (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee (7-5)

Independence Bowl: Dec. 23, 3pm: North Texas (7-5) vs. Liberty (8-4)

Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa): Dec. 23, 6:30pm: Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Memphis (6-6)

Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth): Dec. 22, 7:30pm: SMU (7-5) vs. Western Kentucky (8-5)

New Orleans Bowl: Dec. 21, 9pm: Troy (11-2) vs. Texas San Antonio (11-2)

Idaho Potato Bowl: Dec. 20, 3:30pm: Air Force (9-3) vs. BYU (7-5)

Boca Raton Bowl: Dec. 20, 7:30pm: Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Connecticut (6-6)

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Dec. 19, noon: East Carolina (7-5) vs. Coastal Carolina (9-3)

Las Vegas Bowl: Dec. 17, TBD: Florida (6-6) vs. Oregon (9-3)

New Mexico Bowl: Dec. 17, TBD: Wyoming (7-5) vs. Open

Fenway Bowl: Dec. 17, 11am: Louisville (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)

LA Bowl: Dec. 17, 3:30pm: Utah (9-4) vs. Boise State (10-3)

Lending Tree Bowl (Mobile): Dec. 17, 5:45pm: Marshall (8-4) vs. Open (Reserved for Buffalo if they win)

Frisco Bowl: Dec. 17, 9:15pm: San Jose State (7-4) vs. Louisiana (6-6)

Bahamas Bowl: Dec. 16, 11am: Miami Ohio (6-6) vs. UAB (6-6) - Finalized

Cure Bowl: Dec. 16, 3pm: Ohio (10-3) vs. South Alabama (10-2)

ACC (9): Clemson (Orange), Duke (Military), Florida State (CheezIt), Louisville (Fenway), NC State (Duke's Mayo), North Carolina (Holiday), Pittsburgh (Sun), Syracuse (Pinstripe), Wake Forest (Gasparilla)
American (7): Cincinnati (Fenway), East Carolina (Myrtle Beach), Houston (Military), Memphis (Gasparilla), SMU (Armed Forces), Tulane (Cotton), UCF (Birmingham)
Big Ten (9): Illinois (Relia Quest), Iowa (Pinstripe), Maryland (Music City), Michigan (Fiesta), Minnesota (Duke's Mayo), Ohio State (Rose), Penn State (Cotton), Purdue (Citrus), Wisconsin (Guaranteed Rate)
Big 12 (8): Baylor (Guaranteed Rate), Kansas (First Responder), Kansas State (Sugar), Oklahoma (Liberty), Oklahoma State (Cheez It), TCU (Fiesta), Texas (Alamo), Texas Tech (Texas)
C-USA (5): Middle Tennessee (Hawaii), North Texas (Independence), UAB (Bahamas), UTSA (New Orleans), Western Kentucky (Armed Forces)
MAC (5): Bowling Green (Camelia), Eastern Michigan (Quick Lane), Miami (OH) (Bahamas), Ohio (Cure), Toledo (Arizona)
Mountain West (7): Air Force (Potato), Boise State (LA), Fresno State (Arizona), San Diego State (Hawaii), San Jose State (Frisco), Utah State (First Responder), Wyoming (New Mexico)
Pac-12 (7): Oregon (Las Vegas), Oregon State (Holiday), UCLA (Alamo), USC (Peach), Utah (LA), Washington (Rose), Washington State (Sun)
SEC (11): Alabama (Orange), Arkansas (Liberty), Florida (Las Vegas), Georgia (Peach), Kentucky (Music City), LSU (Citrus), Mississippi State (Houston), Missouri (Birmingham), Ole Miss (Gator), South Carolina (Relia Quest), Tennessee (Sugar)
Sun Belt (7): Coastal Carolina (Myrtle Beach), Georgia Southern (Boca Raton), Louisiana (Frisco), Marshall (Lending Tree), South Alabama (Cure), Southern Miss (Camelia), Troy (New Orleans)
Independent (4): BYU (Potato), Liberty (Independence), Notre Dame (Gator), UConn (Boca Raton)

Open Bowls: Lending Tree (Reserved for Buffalo if they win), Quick Lane, New Mexico

Feel free to complain, correct bowl agreements, order, post your own.

I was a perfect 9 for 9 in ACC bowl agreements! I also placed Notre Dame in the correct ACC bowl!

I had 4 of 8 Big 12 correct.

I had 4 of 9 Big Ten teams correct. Had I known USC lost, I would have put Ohio State in the Peach Bowl and Penn State in the Rose.

I had 4 of the 10 SEC correct. Missouri wound up in the Gaspirilla instead of the Birmingham.

Obviously Utah winning would have affected my Pac 12 placements but I didn't get a single one of them right!

The G5's were a crap shoot but I am pleased I got the Hawaii Bowl correct. I figured San Diego State was the closest to Hawaii of all MWC bowl eligible teams and CUSA would reward one of the teams that are staying and not one of the teams that are leaving with a trip to Hawaii and Western Kentucky played there this year so Middle Tennessee was my choice.
12-04-2022 08:01 PM
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