So if you take the final regular season composite rankings for the Sunbelt and the 14 teams that will be in the AAC next year, the results are razor thin.

Average rank for the Sunbelt - 81.85
Average rank for the AAC - 82.50

To show how close it really is, their 7th place team is North Texas at 79 and ours is Louisiana at 77. We both have 10 teams in top 100. We really only win because they have 3 teams ranked in the 120s and we only have one.

(11-27-2022 12:42 PM)banker Wrote:  So if you take the final regular season composite rankings for the Sunbelt and the 14 teams that will be in the AAC next year, the results are razor thin.

Average rank for the Sunbelt - 81.85
Average rank for the AAC - 82.50

To show how close it really is, their 7th place team is North Texas at 79 and ours is Louisiana at 77. We both have 10 teams in top 100. We really only win because they have 3 teams ranked in the 120s and we only have one.

The perception they're hanging on to is going to chance a lot faster than they think. Big shift coming when the BIG3 leave.

Given the AAC's still-favored status with the Mouse, I think the speed of its descent in perception isn't going to be what we're hoping, but our optimism pales to that of the folks on the other side.

I was looking for some info on New Mexico State's makeup game and moseyed over to the CUSA board (NMSU doesn't have a dedicated board under Independents). I ended up in a shallow rabbit hole that led me to the AAC board, where I saw a Tulane fan speculate that the AAC would soon just sign its own NY6 bowl deal and no longer have to worry about the G5 autobid.

I believe we end up the highest rated G5 next year with a comfortable 2-3 point lead over the AAC. The issue we will have is that there are simply more bottom feeders in the AAC, which means less chances for conference losses, so their top teams have a better chance of going with one less loss.

The current Massey Composite ranking of the departing AAC schools is #28 (UCF), #30 (Cincy) and #60 (Houston). I don’t know that you can simply subtract this from their average and get a clear calculation of what it’d be for the other teams. Part of the ranking stems from playing games against these good teams. Those games will be gone. Likewise, the incoming AAC schools played a schedule of CUSA teams, which would affect the calculation as well. We’ll have to see how much that impacts ratings starting next year, but you’d have to think the AAC will lose their edge over the SBC.

(11-27-2022 02:01 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  The current Massey Composite ranking of the departing AAC schools is #28 (UCF), #30 (Cincy) and #60 (Houston). I don’t know that you can simply subtract this from their average and get a clear calculation of what it’d be for the other teams. Part of the ranking stems from playing games against these good teams. Those games will be gone. Likewise, the incoming AAC schools played a schedule of CUSA teams, which would affect the calculation as well. We’ll have to see how much that impacts ratings starting next year, but you’d have to think the AAC will lose their edge over the SBC.

They barley hung on this year if we ball out in all our bowl games chance we could pass them I think.

I really think if TXST can figure it out they are the cog we are missing to put us over the top. Biggest head scratch of a program for me since they moved up. They have the indgredients but whiff on head coaches like it is their jobs.

(11-27-2022 02:01 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  The current Massey Composite ranking of the departing AAC schools is #28 (UCF), #30 (Cincy) and #60 (Houston). I don’t know that you can simply subtract this from their average and get a clear calculation of what it’d be for the other teams. Part of the ranking stems from playing games against these good teams. Those games will be gone. Likewise, the incoming AAC schools played a schedule of CUSA teams, which would affect the calculation as well. We’ll have to see how much that impacts ratings starting next year, but you’d have to think the AAC will lose their edge over the SBC.

I don't know how SOS fits into all of the rankings in the composite but agree there is certainly a bigger impact than just removing the 3 schools from the average.

All schools got a bit of a boost for UCF and Cincy being ranked highly. Navy and ECU got bigger boosts due to beating UCF; UCF and Tulane got bigger boosts due to beating Cincy; and Tulane was boosted by beating Cincy and Houston. Navy, ECU and Tulane all fall at least a few spots if those wins were against a UAB/FAU/UNT/etc instead.

Time for ULM, TXST, stAte, and ODU to step it up next year.

(11-27-2022 12:45 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 12:42 PM)banker Wrote:  So if you take the final regular season composite rankings for the Sunbelt and the 14 teams that will be in the AAC next year, the results are razor thin.

Average rank for the Sunbelt - 81.85
Average rank for the AAC - 82.50

To show how close it really is, their 7th place team is North Texas at 79 and ours is Louisiana at 77. We both have 10 teams in top 100. We really only win because they have 3 teams ranked in the 120s and we only have one.

The perception they're hanging on to is going to chance a lot faster than they think. Big shift coming when the BIG3 leave.

Yes and no. They perceived as a better league and when they aren't losing games to the big three, others will emerge as the dominant teams and the media will play along. Regular fans aren't looking at Massey rating to see who's at the top. They're looking at ESPN to tell them who's on top. And since the AAC is their bastard spawn, they are going to hang on to that illusion.

(11-27-2022 01:33 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  Given the AAC's still-favored status with the Mouse, I think the speed of its descent in perception isn't going to be what we're hoping, but our optimism pales to that of the folks on the other side.

I was looking for some info on New Mexico State's makeup game and moseyed over to the CUSA board (NMSU doesn't have a dedicated board under Independents). I ended up in a shallow rabbit hole that led me to the AAC board, where I saw a Tulane fan speculate that the AAC would soon just sign its own NY6 bowl deal and no longer have to worry about the G5 autobid.

Willing to bet it's the Charlotte weirdo's Tulane account. He has several