(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

(11-27-2022 10:43 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 10:29 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Alabama is lucky to be ranked. Should have four losses. Ohio State, who schedule was equally as tough as Alabama didn’t have any clothes games that could’ve been losses.

Alabama is closer to being undefeated than having three losses, much less four.

This is the worst Alabama team in years, but that being down by Alabama standards doesn't mean that they're somehow worse than a team that just lost at home by three touchdowns.

The Committee's job is to find the four best teams. If Alabama played Ohio State's schedule and Ohio State played Alabama's schedule, what would their records be? It's obviously a moot point, but based on what I saw yesterday I don't imaging Ohio State winning two out of @ Texas, @LSU, @Tennessee, and @Ole Miss.

Bama beat Texas by one in a game where they were clearly 2nd best. A&M had a play to win the game on the 2 yd line with 2 seconds left. Bama is 2-2 in tight games, with their best win against the #21 team in the country (who clearly outplayed them). tOSU dominated everyone until saturday, including a top 10 PSU. It's a joke to even compare Bama with tOSU, and I would be surprised if Tennessee doesn't leapfrog them on Tuesday, too.

For years, the huge advantage that teams like tOSU and Bama had was "game control". They just dominated every game, or almost every game. This year, tOSU is still doing that, they played poorly in one half at the worst possible time, but outside of that they've dominated everyone. Alabama has gone 2-2 in VERY close games, including one against my 5-7 Aggies. That's not domination, that's also-ran performance, and it won't be nearly enough to vault them over a 1 loss USC, tOSU, TCU or UM (if either of them loses next week).

I'm not being anti-Alabama here at all, I have a ton of respect for them as a program. But this is just not their year.

My take:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2022/11/...s-11-27-22

(11-27-2022 11:48 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:33 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:09 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  Disagree. The SEC is very down this year. There’s Georgia in a bunch of frankly mediocre teams that would struggle to finish in the top four of the Big Ten. I would put Ohio State Michigan and Penn State ahead of any non-Georgia team this year. There are no stand out teams in the west, but a bunch of solid teams that we compete in the SEC this year.

The Big Ten's best win of the season is Ohio State over Notre Dame. Can you find the Big Ten's second-best win for me?

Whatever that win is, compare to South Carolina over Clemson, Kentucky over Louisville, A&M over Miami, Florida over Utah, or Arkansas over Cincinnati.

Those are five SEC teams that couldn't get over .500 in conference but all have better wins than 13 of the Big Ten's programs.

A&M over Miami? I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that one.

It's ok, just slot in Georgia over Oregon for that one.

(11-27-2022 02:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  My take:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2022/11/...s-11-27-22

The CFP committee is biased? There have been some arguments about the ranking within the top 4, but the only time I remember thinking that they made a truly bad decision at the #4 spot was in 2020 when they picked ND over A&M. However, even that was a judgement call, and I did not feel that they were biased against us.

The only 2 teams that seem to get the benefit of the doubt in most years are Alabama and tOSU, but I can't pick a single season in which they were included over somebody who I feel was clearly more deserving.

Nice writeup overall though.

ReliaQuest bowl just doesn't have the same ring as "Outback Bowl"...

(11-27-2022 02:02 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:33 AM)OneSockUp Wrote:  Those are five SEC teams that couldn't get over .500 in conference but all have better wins than 13 of the Big Ten's programs.

Notre Dame destroyed Clemson. Louisville? Miami? Cincy?? if you’re holding them up as big wins, you know you’ve lost the argument. Florida barely beat Utah on the road. First game of the season.

You’ve done nothing to bolster your case

Ignore everything I said and tell me the three OOC games that best demonstrate how good the Big Ten is this year..

It should be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Ohio St
6. Alabama

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

(11-27-2022 04:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It should be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Ohio St
6. Alabama

I think "should" also means Tennessee > Alabama. USC hasn't beaten any of the 3 best Pac-12 teams, when they do I'll see them above the 2-loss SEC non-champions.

Ha, finished my full sim after the weekend and 1/10000 sims had a team other than OSU/USC/UM as the 4th team. Tennessee made it once.

(11-27-2022 03:16 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  My take:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2022/11/...s-11-27-22

The CFP committee is biased? There have been some arguments about the ranking within the top 4, but the only time I remember thinking that they made a truly bad decision at the #4 spot was in 2020 when they picked ND over A&M. However, even that was a judgement call, and I did not feel that they were biased against us.

The only 2 teams that seem to get the benefit of the doubt in most years are Alabama and tOSU, but I can't pick a single season in which they were included over somebody who I feel was clearly more deserving.

Nice writeup overall though.

ReliaQuest bowl just doesn't have the same ring as "Outback Bowl"...

Yes. I don't know why Big 10 fans have this persecution complex. Ohio St. and Michgan are the committees and ESPN's favorite teams in the country, even ahead of Alabama. Committee is biased, but it benefits the Big 10 and big name schools. Not sure they don't have a recruiting ranking list in front of them when doing their eyeball tests.

(11-27-2022 04:51 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  It should be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC
5. Ohio St
6. Alabama

I think "should" also means Tennessee > Alabama. USC hasn't beaten any of the 3 best Pac-12 teams, when they do I'll see them above the 2-loss SEC non-champions.

USC got lucky with their schedule. They beat the bottom 8 in the Pac, 5 of whom were awful and lost to the only other member of the top 4 that they played.

(11-27-2022 02:00 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 01:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  Coaches poll:
1. Georgia 1572
2. Michigan 1512
3. TCU 1446
4. USC 1381
5. Ohio St. 1312
6. Alabama 1262
7. Penn St. 1153
8. Tennessee 1143
9. Washington 1039
10.KSU 930
11.Clemson 900
12. Utah 872
13. LSU 845

14. FSU 736
15. Oregon 681
16. Oregon St. 613
17. UCLA 603
18. Tulane 558
19. Notre Dame 341
20. S. Carolina 299
21. Texas 292
22. N. Carolina 175
23. UCF 141
24. UTSA 127
25. Miss. St. 88

Bold are potential NY6 teams. Seems like that Tennessee's South Carolina loss is still bothering the coaches. Purdue could also qualify. They were #31.

The AP list came out today.

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college...m=featured

Here's the top 12:

Quote:1 Georgia (12-0) SEC 1,570 (58)
2 Michigan (12-0) Big Ten 1,516 (5)
3 TCU (12-0) Big 12 1449
4 USC (11-1) Pac-12 1382
5 Ohio State (11-1) Big Ten 1313
6 Alabama (10-2) SEC 1243
7 Tennessee (10-2) SEC 1195
8 Penn State (10-2) Big Ten 1131
9 Washington (10-2) Pac-12 1048
10 Clemson (10-2) ACC 928
11 LSU (9-3) SEC 874
12 Utah (9-3) Pac-12 849

AP and coaches as usual, move into synch later in the year. AP likes Tennessee better than Penn St. for #7 while coaches reverse the order. AP has KSU 3 spots lower at 13 and LSU ahead of Utah while coaches have KSU 10 and Utah ahead of LSU for 12. And the AP has UNC 2 spots lower at #24. But those are the only differences in the top 25.

(11-27-2022 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 12:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:57 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 11:51 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  I'd spot you a TD and take that action

I'm just scratching my head wondering when the last time Alabama lost to a major B1G team?

That's right - the 2014 playoffs, 42-35 vs an Ohio State team with the second-best coach of the past 40 years and like 15 NFL draft picks. Since then, they've mopped the floor with a few of them.

I don't think either this Ohio State or Michigan teams fit that bill. But that's just me.

I mean they've only played two 11+ win Big 10 teams since that game so that's really not as far back as you think. I'd also add this Bama team isn't as good as that 2014 Bama team anyway.

Edit: make that one 11+ win team

IIRC, Alabama squashed Michigan State in the 2015 playoffs and Ohio State in the 2020 playoffs. Obviously OSU didn't have 11 wins because they played like seven games, but to me there is nothing magical about 11 wins. They also demolished a 9-win Michigan team in some bowl a couple years back.

FWIW, I am not sure how this Alabama team stacks up to 2014. I think pretty closer. Closer IMO than either of these two OSU and UM teams stack up to 2014 Ohio State. That team had Urban and boatload of talent. I don't see Michigan having that kind of talent at all.

Just MO.

This is easily the weakest Bama team since 2010. They were unbeaten or had only one regular season loss every year but 2019 since then. They aren't as dominate on the line and have a weak receiving corps and vulnerable secondary.

That's not what I see when I watch them. I would say the WR corps looked weak early, but has gotten stronger. I would really would favor them over Ohio State or Michigan in a bowl game. Just MO.

BTW, the 2010 team was IMO very strong, despite 3 losses. They lost to AU, the national champs, by a point, to an 11-win Cotton Bowl champ LSU team by a field goal on the road, and to a 9-win SC team on the road as well. The last one was the only game where they looked like clearly the inferior team. They beat an 11-1, co-B1G champ Michigan State team by a billion points in the Citrus Bowl. They would have given either Auburn or Oregon a whale of a game in the BCS title game.

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

(11-27-2022 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

Committee normally looks at who you beat more than who you lost to.

(11-27-2022 05:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

Committee normally looks at who you beat more than who you lost to.

Yes, but I also think the Committee looks at how you lost. I will always believe that 2017 B1G champ Ohio State lost out to non-champ Alabama for the final CFP spot because they didn't just lose to Iowa, they got demolished by them.

(11-27-2022 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 05:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

Committee normally looks at who you beat more than who you lost to.

Yes, but I also think the Committee looks at how you lost. I will always believe that 2017 B1G champ Ohio State lost out to non-champ Alabama for the final CFP spot because they didn't just lose to Iowa, they got demolished by them.

But 2014 Ohio St. got demolished by a mediocre Virginia Tech at home and got in over TCU who lost by 3 on the road in a dramatic 4th quarter comeback by Baylor. But they were impressed by Ohio St. demolishing Wisconsin in the Big 10 ccg.

Reality is that they put in who they want. Their reasoning changes from week to week, but wins do most often matter more than losses.

(11-27-2022 04:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 03:16 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  My take:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2022/11/...s-11-27-22

The CFP committee is biased? There have been some arguments about the ranking within the top 4, but the only time I remember thinking that they made a truly bad decision at the #4 spot was in 2020 when they picked ND over A&M. However, even that was a judgement call, and I did not feel that they were biased against us.

The only 2 teams that seem to get the benefit of the doubt in most years are Alabama and tOSU, but I can't pick a single season in which they were included over somebody who I feel was clearly more deserving.

Nice writeup overall though.

ReliaQuest bowl just doesn't have the same ring as "Outback Bowl"...

Yes. I don't know why Big 10 fans have this persecution complex. Ohio St. and Michgan are the committees and ESPN's favorite teams in the country, even ahead of Alabama. Committee is biased, but it benefits the Big 10 and big name schools. Not sure they don't have a recruiting ranking list in front of them when doing their eyeball tests.

I don't think there's any bias, but I do agree that if there is any at all then it certainly benefits the P2 (including ND in the P2 ofc) over the rest.

(11-27-2022 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  My top 6:

1) Georgia
2) Michigan (very close, could be #1)
3) TCU
4) USC
5) Alabama
6) Ohio State

You guys who say "Ohio State lost one game, Alabama two" are IMO being too clinical about it. You're missing how badly Ohio State got rolled over and how bad IMO that looked in front of probably 15 million viewers.

Ohio State just doesn't pass the smell test. They got trucked, flattened, at home. Alabama lost two games at the buzzer on the road.

Ohio State got *exposed*. Nobody has exposed Alabama.

But both IMO will need help. If TCU and USC win their CCGs, neither is making the playoffs.

We'll see.

Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

Take common opponents then, or top 10 wins. Tennessee went 2-1 vs top 10 teams, Bama went 0-2. Tennesse was undefeated against common opponents, they destroyed LSU, while bama ofc lost to them. Tennessee did look bad against USC, but bama looked bad against Texas and got bailed out by the refs, won when A&M failed on 4th and goal from the 2 as time expired, and only beat Ole' Miss by 6 in another one score game. 3-2 in 1 score games, that's not dominant by any standard, and it certainly shouldn't be enough to trump 2 top 10 wins and a better record against common opponents.

Give Bama Tennessee's schedule and they lose at least 3, maybe 4.

(11-27-2022 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 05:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 04:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 02:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Ohio St was in that game until the end. Alabama is 2-2 in VERY close games this year, sure they can say they lost 2 on the last play, but they should have lost to A&M on the last play as well, and Texas clearly outplayed them. Alabama is just not as impressive as they usually are this year when you look at their entire body of work. I'd probably rank tOSU ahead of them even with 2 losses, there's no discussion at all when bama has more losses and a whole lot more close games as well.

And speaking of bama, I don't see how they can be ranked ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee lost to a resurgent USC that's peaking at the right time and to Georgia, neither of which is embarrassing, and they also have 2 top 10 wins, including the head to head against Alabama. Bama's best SEC win is against an unranked team, their best overall is against #21 Texas (who significantly outplayed them). Tennessee also has a better record against common opponents. This shouldn't even be close, Tennessee is better. If Bama had this exact same resume but was in the Pac they'd be ranked #10.

Agreed. Committee is bad about the recency bias. They saw Tennessee stink it up at South Carolina and forget that Tennessee beat them head to head and simply has better wins.

IMO, H2H should not count so much in CFB, because it isn't fair H2H. Fair H2H is like the NFL and college hoops and basically everyone else does it - you play a team home and away. In CFB, you only play once, so one of the teams gets home field advantage without ever having to play on the other team's field.

In the case of LSU and Tennessee, Alabama played both on the road and lost at the buzzer. In the case of South Carolina, Tennessee got waxed by a million points, exposed. That IMO is just an entirely worse kind of loss, enough to trump H2H.

Committee normally looks at who you beat more than who you lost to.

Yes, but I also think the Committee looks at how you lost. I will always believe that 2017 B1G champ Ohio State lost out to non-champ Alabama for the final CFP spot because they didn't just lose to Iowa, they got demolished by them.

Tennessee was down 42-31 going into the 4th quarter against USC, they were in it until the wheels came off at the end. That tOSU team in 2017 was down by 21 going into the 4th quarter and it just went downhill from there, they weren't in it for most of the game. And that tOSU team didn't have 2 top 10 wins, a head to head win, and a better record against common opponents to tip the scales in their favor against bama. Not to mention that Alabama only had 1 loss, while tOSU had 2. These situations aren't comparable at all.