APR Bowl Race - Final Week

Didn’t see a thread on this. It’s “go time” for a handful of 5-win teams with high APRs to possibly steal a bowl bid.

75 bids (of 82) are accounted for (counting Saturday’s App State v Ga Southern winner).

13 other teams are one win away from a qualifying six wins.

The following teams are top three to qualify with 5 based on APR: Rice, UNLV, Auburn (based on a recent list I saw this week).

With more underdogs than favorites among that group of 13, it’s likely that the remaining 7 spots won’t be claimed by 6-win teams.

One game Friday to watch: Arkansas (-3) at 5-6 Missouri.

Saturday’s games (including the App/GaSou game which has already been accounted for)

I think that all the bowl spots are going to be claimed by regular qualifiers - no 5-7 teams will make it in my opinion.

(11-24-2022 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think that all the bowl spots are going to be claimed by regular qualifiers - no 5-7 teams will make it in my opinion.

As a Rice fan, I would only be “ok” with that if we manage to upset North Texas and get a proper 6 wins.

I do know that every year there are several upsets when one team is playing for eligibility and the other team might have less at stake.

I don’t know. A lot of those 5-6 teams are under dogs:

GT
Miami
Auburn
Vandy
Mich St
UTEP

ULM, USM, Rice, and FAU feel like toss ups.

The one on there I feel confident about is UAB.

(11-24-2022 01:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t know. A lot of those 5-6 teams are under dogs:

GT
Miami
Auburn
Vandy
Mich St
UTEP

ULM, USM, Rice, and FAU feel like toss ups.

The one on there I feel confident about is UAB.

For quo’s scenario of 7 teams to win to occur, all of the favorites AND single digit underdogs would have to win, plus one more double digit underdog.

I’m curious which among these quo thinks is most likely to win?

GT +35.5
Rice +14.0
Auburn +22
UTEP+17
MSU +19
Vandy +14

I would not be shocked if Vandy or Rice pull it off. Rice has their injured star QB1b coming back to start which gives them a fighting chance. And, Vandy has shown signs of life recently.

(11-24-2022 11:00 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  APR Bowl Race - Final Week

Didn’t see a thread on this. It’s “go time” for a handful of 5-win teams with high APRs to possibly steal a bowl bid.

75 bids (of 82) are accounted for (counting Saturday’s App State v Ga Southern winner).

13 other teams are one win away from a qualifying six wins.

The following teams are top three to qualify with 5 based on APR: Rice, UNLV, Auburn (based on a recent list I saw this week).

With more underdogs than favorites among that group of 13, it’s likely that the remaining 7 spots won’t be claimed by 6-win teams.

One game Friday to watch: Arkansas (-3) at 5-6 Missouri.

Saturday’s games (including the App/GaSou game which has already been accounted for)

Teams with five wins (need a loss to qualify by APR)

Rice 994
Michigan State 983
Missouri 983
Auburn 983
Miami(FL) 982

Teams with four wins (need a win to qualify by APR)

Iowa State 986
UNLV 984

Most likely 79 or 80 will get to 6-6. Rice may be a lock for a bowl game.

UNLV favored (-12.5) in their game against 2-9 Nevada.

Iowa State surprisingly only 10 point underdogs at #4 TCU.

5-6 Missou looking good out of the gate to take a 17-7 early lead!
Arkansas says not so fast my friend. Razorbacks lead at the half 21-20

Mizzou holds on 29-27

(11-25-2022 06:50 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  Mizzou holds on 29-27

So that’s 6 spots left (not counting the App/GaState winner). 12 teams can qualify by reaching 6 wins tomorrow.

76 claimed spots including one for App/GaSt

GaTech (5-6) goes up 7-0 on UGA!!!

What do you think about that!?

(11-26-2022 12:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  GaTech (5-6) goes up 7-0 on UGA!!!

What do you think about that!?

I think it's unlikely to last, but hope it does!

Early games going to form, other than GaTech still hanging around..

(11-24-2022 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think that all the bowl spots are going to be claimed by regular qualifiers - no 5-7 teams will make it in my opinion.

While that didn't happen, the chances are good that we will have 80 regular qualifiers (assuming Buffalo wins on Friday). I think it would be difficult for the NCAA to appear to be trying to avoid awarding the last two spots based on APR success by going out of their way to give last minute waivers (that they could have given conditionally weeks ago if they really wanted to (looking at you, JMU).

The two schools first in line based on APR appear to be Rice (994) and UNLV (984). The P5 conferences already have 45 qualified teams. Do they really want to tell G5 schools that striving for APR success isn't important anyway?

(11-27-2022 02:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-24-2022 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think that all the bowl spots are going to be claimed by regular qualifiers - no 5-7 teams will make it in my opinion.

While that didn't happen, the chances are good that we will have 80 regular qualifiers (assuming Buffalo wins on Friday). I think it would be difficult for the NCAA to appear to be trying to avoid awarding the last two spots based on APR success by going out of their way to give last minute waivers (that they could have given conditionally weeks ago if they really wanted to (looking at you, JMU).

The two schools first in line based on APR appear to be Rice (994) and UNLV (984). The P5 conferences already have 45 qualified teams. Do they really want to tell G5 schools that striving for APR success isn't important anyway?

This is how I see it as well. I do not think any waivers will be granted.

With that in mind, IMO Rice and UNLV will go bowling. The only real outstanding issue is Buffalo vs Auburn. If Buffalo loses to Akron, very unlikely, then my understanding is AU is third in line via APR.

if Army & App St have 4 wins vs FBS & 2 wins vs D1AA
Rice has 4 wins vs FBS & 1 win vs D1AA

don't make no sence to take Rice over them 2

So they all three have five counting wins, and the rule since before any of those games were played was if there were not enough deserving teams, even after the three rules for six win teams who would otherwise be ineligible, five win teams are sorted by APR. So if they wanted to get in with five wins, they should have studied harder

Let’s go bowling!

Fun fact: three of the last 6 teams Rice has beaten qualified yesterday! (going back to last year since we only won 5 this year (so far)

And a fourth (UTEP) almost qualified.

Rice started strong but struggled lately with a lot of injuries. Would be good to see if they can bounce back strong with a few weeks to get healthy.

It'll be interesting to see if there are any extra games this week lined up quickly. Think something like Arizona @ Hawaii. Both are 5-7 teams. Winner would get to 6-7 and thus over the APR teams.

(11-27-2022 11:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It'll be interesting to see if there are any extra games this week lined up quickly. Think something like Arizona @ Hawaii. Both are 5-7 teams. Winner would get to 6-7 and thus over the APR teams.

Two problems with that: Hawaii isn't 5-7. In fact, they are 3-10 which means not only can't they play Arizona they can't play anyone else either since they already played 13 games.