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Spread Pickem Week 13
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ken d Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
Tennessee's blowout of Vandy left schmolik and I tied for first in Week 13 with 9 wins apiece. JRsec finishes alone in second place with 8, followed by SouthEastAlaska and VFL8920 in third with 7.

In the season race, schmolik's late surge carried him to a dominating win with 96 correct picks in his best 12 weeks, an average of 8 wins/week. Impressive! I will be awarding him with three rep points for that achievement in addition to his 3 for Week 13. I would hope that his fellow competitors will also shower him with recognition and award him points as well.

A total of 16 players started the season, but lacking early success that number gradually dwindled, leaving us with 7 players who participated in the required 12 weeks to qualify for the season crown. The final standings are (with # of individual weeks won in parentheses):

96 schmolik (4)
92 Skyhawk (5)
91 ken d (4)
91 VFL8920 (4)
88 panite (1)
87 SouthEastAlaska (1)
84 JRsec (2)

In addition to the 2 points Skyhawk earns for his second place finish, I have decided to award him 3 bonus points for having the most individual weekly wins.

Congratulations everyone for a great Pickem season. I'll show some season statistics in a separate post that might be of interest.
11-27-2022 06:53 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
During the season I tracked some overall statistics to see how we are doing collectively picking against the point spreads every week. Some of the numbers I found enlightening, though I'm not sure they will translate to more successful game strategies in the future since the sample size is relatively small.

The first stat is the average point spread each week. I found it interesting that this number dramatically increased in the last three weeks, most likely because by that point in the season I was selecting slates of games that likely would have the most impact on conference races and CFP selections.

I compared that with the number of player wins each week and contrasted that with the number of wins by favorites for those weeks. Finally, I calculated the average number of wins by all players for each week. These are the results.

............Avg........Player...Fav....Avg
Week..Spread.....Wins...Wins..Wins


1............8.2 .........10........6.......7.2
2............8.1..........11.......10......7.4
3............7.8............9........9.......8.5
4............8.5..........10........5.......8.0
5............6.7..........10........7.......7.5
6............5.3..........12........7.......7.3
7............8.8...........9.........6.......7.0
8............8.5...........8.........8.......6.8
9............8.9..........10........7.......7.5
10..........9.5..........10........7.......7.1
11.........13.8..........11.......5.......7.3
12.........12.8...........8........6.......6.6
13.........10.7...........9........5.......7.1

For the entire season, favorites covered the spread 6.8 times a week, or 45% of the time, which is below what we would expect in a normal year. Collectively, we did better than the favorites, picking correctly 7.3 times a week which is 49% of the time.
11-27-2022 06:53 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
Thanks for running the Spread Pick Em! I had fun (for obvious reasons :) You should play the straight up contest! You still can during Championship Week and the bowls/CFP.
11-27-2022 07:39 AM
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SouthEastAlaska Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
Thank you Ken, that was fun!
11-27-2022 11:29 AM
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panite Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
Thanks ken d. Enjoyed playing. 02-13-banana 02-13-banana COGSCOGS 01-donnankungfu04-cheers
11-29-2022 12:18 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Spread Pickem Week 13
Thanks for the fun : )

04-cheers
11-29-2022 12:47 PM
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