As the playoffs get closer, there should be more of these predictive type columns, so I thought it might be helpful to have a thread just for Playoff talk.

This one is from Inforum, done by Dom Izzo. He is based out of North Dakota, so allow for that type bias.

He has 4 CAA teams in the playoffs, with UNH getting the Automatic Bid.


https://www.inforum.com/sports/bison-med...tology-1-0

Here is the one from College Sports Madness

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology

With our win today we are in a very good position Beat Hampton next week and I think we're a lock with a couple games to secure a seed and at least one home game.

(10-29-2022 07:04 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  With our win today we are in a very good position Beat Hampton next week and I think we're a lock with a couple games to secure a seed and at least one home game.

Agreed, and I’ll add:

Beat Hampton = Playoff LOCK and likely a first round home game
+ Beat Villanova = Playoffs, first round home game, or POTENTIAL Top 8 seed/first round bye
+ Beat UR = Top 8 seed, second round home game, POTENTIAL Top 4 seed w/at least 2 home games.

Not getting ahead of myself…just trying to visualize our path.

A loss blows this all up. Gotta win ‘em all.

Yes, we have likely top 8 seed and potential top 4 seed by winning out which brings a first round bye plus guarantee home games till semifinals if a top 4 seed. Let us look at the CAA remaining schedule to see what our opponents and us have left!

Also the imbalance CAA schedule & lack of divisions make conference champ race exciting.

Here is recap of games left to play, key CAA games already played, plus projection:

UNH 5-0 Left @ Richmond, home URI, @ Maine. Beat Elon @ home. Project 7-1 or 6-2

Rich 4-1 Left Home UNH, @ Hens, home W&M. Loss@ Elon, Beat Nova home. 6-2 or 5-3.

W&M 4-1 Left @ Hampton, home Nova, @ Rich. Loss Elon & wins Hens, URI. 7-1 or 6-2

Elon 3-2 Left Home Albany, @ Hamp. Losses @ UNH & URI. Win @ W&M, home Rich. 6-2

Hens 3-2 Left Home Monmouth & Rich, @ Nova. Loss @ W&M & Home Elon. Win @ URI. 5-3 or 4-4

URI 3-2 Left Home ME & Albany, @ UNH. Loss @ W&M. Loss Hens & win Elon. 6-2 or 5-3

Nova 3-2 Left @ Towson & W&M, home Hens. Loss @ Rich, Monmouth. No good win. 5-3 or 4-4.

Key games:

Nov 5--UNH @ Richmond

Nov 12--Nova @ W&M
Richmond @ Delaware
URI @ UNH

Nov 19-- W&M @ Richmond
Delaware @ Nova

Current Standings:

UNH 5-0
Tribe 4-1
Rich 4-1
Elon 3-2
Hens 3-2
URI 3-2

Desired Tribe standings:

UNH 6-2 losses @ Rich and home loss to URI
Tribe 7-1 home win Nova and win @ Rich
Rich 5-3 home win UNH and win @ Hens plus loss at home to W&M
Elon 6-2 wins out
Hens 5-3 home lost to Rich & win @ Nova
URI 6-2 win @ UNH
Nova 4-4 losses @ W&M and home to Hens

Elon and URI both still play Albany. The Great Danes have been playing well recently; their offense is good; and their QB will probably win Rookie of the Year (not just in CAA but possibly also the Jerry Rice award nationally). (The Rice Award projection could be a stretch because I haven't been following rookies nationally....but he sure has looked good in the CAA).

Here’s the projection from DRatings

Updated on 10/30/2022 @ 2:10pm EST.

FCS Playoff Bracket Projection
Seed Team Record Conference
1 CS Sacramento 8-0 Big Sky
North Dakota 5-3 Missouri Valley
Idaho 5-3 Big Sky
8 Montana St 7-1 Big Sky
Furman 7-2 Southern
Davidson 6-2 Pioneer
5 Incarnate Word 8-1 Southland
Delaware 6-2 Colonial
Gardner Webb 4-5 Big South
4 Holy Cross 8-0 Patriot
Chattanooga 6-2 Southern
New Hampshire 6-2 Colonial
3 N Dakota St 6-2 Missouri Valley
Mercer 7-2 Southern
TN Martin 5-3 Ohio Valley
6 Samford 7-1 Southern
Montana 5-3 Big Sky
SF Austin 5-4 Western Athletic
2 S Dakota St 8-1 Missouri Valley
Richmond 6-2 Colonial
Northern Iowa 5-4 Missouri Valley
7 Weber St 7-1 Big Sky
William & Mary 7-1 Colonial
St Francis PA 6-2 Northeast

The CAA leader should be a seed, especially if it is a 1 loss squad. Big Sky is a good conference, no doubt, but giving seeds to 3 of their 4 teams is giving them way too much respect. I wonder why they put a 4-5 Gardner Web in their projected playoff? At least NC A&T is above .500 in the current Big South standings. Are A&T and Campbell ineligible for the auto qualifier because they are leaving?
I suppose I'm reading too much into a midseason projection. Much of this will be sorted out over the coming weeks as the teams in the strong leagues eat each other.

(10-30-2022 01:45 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  Here’s the projection from DRatings

Updated on 10/30/2022 @ 2:10pm EST.

FCS Playoff Bracket Projection
Seed Team Record Conference
1 CS Sacramento 8-0 Big Sky
North Dakota 5-3 Missouri Valley
Idaho 5-3 Big Sky
8 Montana St 7-1 Big Sky
Furman 7-2 Southern
Davidson 6-2 Pioneer
5 Incarnate Word 8-1 Southland
Delaware 6-2 Colonial
Gardner Webb 4-5 Big South
4 Holy Cross 8-0 Patriot
Chattanooga 6-2 Southern
New Hampshire 6-2 Colonial
3 N Dakota St 6-2 Missouri Valley
Mercer 7-2 Southern
TN Martin 5-3 Ohio Valley
6 Samford 7-1 Southern
Montana 5-3 Big Sky
SF Austin 5-4 Western Athletic
2 S Dakota St 8-1 Missouri Valley
Richmond 6-2 Colonial
Northern Iowa 5-4 Missouri Valley
7 Weber St 7-1 Big Sky
William & Mary 7-1 Colonial
St Francis PA 6-2 Northeast

The fact Montana is ranked and on this projected list is a joke. They are 5-3. The 5 opponents they’ve beaten? No winning records and an overall 10-33 record. They will lose big to Montana State and finish with 4 losses and beat two additional teams with current 1-7 and 2-6 records. The ridiculous Big Sky bias really needs to stop.

(10-30-2022 12:26 PM)Zorch Wrote:  Elon and URI both still play Albany. The Great Danes have been playing well recently; their offense is good; and their QB will probably win Rookie of the Year (not just in CAA but possibly also the Jerry Rice award nationally). (The Rice Award projection could be a stretch because I haven't been following rookies nationally....but he sure has looked good in the CAA).

Good point.

St Francis clinched the first bid to the playoffs, as the NEC's champion.

Holy Cross also beat Fordham, which maybe helps us/the CAA a smidgen. There's a decent chance Fordham doesn't get an at large bid, whereas if Fordham won the conference I think HC gets in.

(10-30-2022 11:07 AM)ScottyB757 Wrote:  

(10-29-2022 07:04 PM)hktribefan Wrote:  With our win today we are in a very good position Beat Hampton next week and I think we're a lock with a couple games to secure a seed and at least one home game.

Agreed, and I’ll add:

Beat Hampton = Playoff LOCK and likely a first round home game
+ Beat Villanova = Playoffs, first round home game, or POTENTIAL Top 8 seed/first round bye
+ Beat UR = Top 8 seed, second round home game, POTENTIAL Top 4 seed w/at least 2 home games.

Not getting ahead of myself…just trying to visualize our path.

A loss blows this all up. Gotta win ‘em all.

If we make the playoffs we will almost definitely host first round. Who hosts that first round is not a who is better, rather it's who submitted a more competitive bid. We usually submit pretty good ones, and we have one of the better stadiums in FCS. I feel comfortable we'll have at least one home playoff game.

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/c...on-oct-31/

Here is the craziest bracket yet. Has Montana seeded at #5(not Montana St, Montana) and has Richmond as the CAA champ and the only CAA school in the field.

Just goes to show anyone can do a crazy bracket projection.

In seriousness, the CAA isn't going to get 6 bids, but it currently has 7 teams with 2 losses or less in conference. This is definitely not going to be the year to go 7-4 and get an invite. So, New Hampshire, Richmond, William and Mary, Delaware, Elon, Rhode Island and Villanova all have a lot of work to do to get into the playoffs. I still think 4 CAA schools is the most likely outcome.

College Sports Madness likes the Tribe a lot more.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology

(11-01-2022 11:10 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  https://www.college-sports-journal.com/c...on-oct-31/

Here is the craziest bracket yet. Has Montana seeded at #5(not Montana St, Montana) and has Richmond as the CAA champ and the only CAA school in the field.

Just goes to show anyone can do a crazy bracket projection.

In seriousness, the CAA isn't going to get 6 bids, but it currently has 7 teams with 2 losses or less in conference. This is definitely not going to be the year to go 7-4 and get an invite. So, New Hampshire, Richmond, William and Mary, Delaware, Elon, Rhode Island and Villanova all have a lot of work to do to get into the playoffs. I still think 4 CAA schools is the most likely outcome.

College Sports Madness likes the Tribe a lot more.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology

His 8th seed, UC Davis is currently 4-4. In no scenario does the CAA only get 1 bid. The range is 4 on the low side and 6 on the high. The blogger is a North Dakota guy, so you know the Big Sky bias is real. The Valley won't get 5 and the SoCon won't get 4 at the expense of the CAA.

Just a totally random comment after looking at the polls. I seem to recall that the last time that we played Weber State it did not turn out too well for Weber.

The Sagarin bracket used a computer ranking, the formula has been pretty anti CAA so far.

Well here's a computer that loves us. Weighted win paths has us as the best team in FCS.

http://football.kislanko.com/2022/WWP_current.html

(11-01-2022 12:50 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  Well here's a computer that loves us. Weighted win paths has us as the best team in FCS.

http://football.kislanko.com/2022/WWP_current.html

W&M - Ranked 52
JMU - Ranked 68

I like it
Top 10 according to this model
1) W&M
2) Holy Cross
3) Sac St
4) Weber
5) South Dakota St
6) Jackson St
7) Elon
8) Delaware
9) Samford
10) Montana St

All I really want is a game against New Hampshire.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2022...ns-8-bzbz/

The latest HERO Sports bracket has W&M as the 6 Seed, facing the Davidson - Furman winner on the second weekend.

They have 4 CAA schools in, with Rhode Island missing out.

This from HERO:
The winner of William & Mary at Richmond will be a seed. I lean the Tribe in this one. William & Mary with a win would be 10-1 overall with an FBS win (Charlotte) and two now-ranked wins (No. 20 Delaware, No. 11 Richmond). Its projected SOS of No. 50 may prevent it from jumping NDSU or Samford.