(10-22-2022 07:48 AM)rosewater Wrote:  I am in agreement. Cincinnati was at its highest pinnacle and most stable situation in the Big East. It was competitive, fun and an opportunity for a national championship without the prima donnas.

And there are no remaining teams in the Big 12 that are irreplaceable. If Kansas, which is brand most likely to be considered by the Big Ten, were ever to leave, you could pick up Memphis and replace most of what was lost.

The Big 12 is in a good spot right now because it's members are equally yoked for the most part. All of the programs are committed to being very competitive and helping the conference on the field/court, but no one remaining has the weight to throw around if they wanted to. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

(10-22-2022 09:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:21 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  The $40M+ range is on par with the ACC.

If it’s $50M-60M range, that makes it hard for ESPN to keep the ACC happy.

that would be $480 mil per year, I don't see it. $360 would be 30 mil.
$400 being thrown around would be enough for everyone to get just a hair over 30 mil and conf take a 13th share of same amount for overhead.

$400 million makes perfect sense.

Conference doesn't take an equal share in the Big 12 unless they've changed

(10-22-2022 12:29 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 09:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:21 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  The $40M+ range is on par with the ACC.

If it’s $50M-60M range, that makes it hard for ESPN to keep the ACC happy.

that would be $480 mil per year, I don't see it. $360 would be 30 mil.
$400 being thrown around would be enough for everyone to get just a hair over 30 mil and conf take a 13th share of same amount for overhead.

$400 million makes perfect sense.

Conference doesn't take an equal share in the Big 12 unless they've changed

Probably correct, but they have to get some $$ from somewhere for overhead.
I have no idea how much that is or where it comes from.

(10-22-2022 12:29 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 09:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:21 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  The $40M+ range is on par with the ACC.

If it’s $50M-60M range, that makes it hard for ESPN to keep the ACC happy.

that would be $480 mil per year, I don't see it. $360 would be 30 mil.
$400 being thrown around would be enough for everyone to get just a hair over 30 mil and conf take a 13th share of same amount for overhead.

$400 million makes perfect sense.

Conference doesn't take an equal share in the Big 12 unless they've changed

You're right, the only reason the SEC, ACC, Pac-12, and B1G take equal share is because of their conference networks. Big 12 schools only pay 20% of their TV dealn(Tier 1 ans 2). So right now they pay 2 million per school.

(10-24-2022 08:06 AM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 12:29 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 09:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:21 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  The $40M+ range is on par with the ACC.

If it’s $50M-60M range, that makes it hard for ESPN to keep the ACC happy.

that would be $480 mil per year, I don't see it. $360 would be 30 mil.
$400 being thrown around would be enough for everyone to get just a hair over 30 mil and conf take a 13th share of same amount for overhead.

$400 million makes perfect sense.

Conference doesn't take an equal share in the Big 12 unless they've changed

You're right, the only reason the SEC, ACC, Pac-12, and B1G take equal share is because of their conference networks. Big 12 schools only pay 20% of their TV dealn(Tier 1 ans 2). So right now they pay 2 million per school.

Ok. if they got an = share (one 13th) it would be about 8%, if they actually get 20% it is much worse than I guessed it would be.

To throw some cold water on things:

https://nypost.com/2022/10/24/what-big-1...-football/

I slipped by the paywall and here's what I got:

Marchand doesn't think we're going to hit the $400m that we're looking for, and that the Big 12 and Pac-12 will receive "similar contracts". He has us at $350-360m right now.

Big 12 to Fox and ESPN, Pac-12 to ESPN and Amazon. Apple is a non-player. Turner could be a wildcard here. Mentioned in the context of Pac-12. He thinks Fox is out. He also thinks Fox's participation in the Big 12 may be more limited than the current 50/50 split.

Amazon is not looking to pay anybody a premium. (He doesn't mention this, but for context they had previously offered a premium for F1 and Big Ten.) Pac-12 lacks bidders, but...

He thinks the Pac-12 is in a better spot than the Big 12 just by the increased leverage of the open market. Reading between the lines there is a non-trivial chance that the Pac-12 will actually get more on a per-team basis. It's a little unclear because in one space he's suggesting the top-line would be similar (in which case the Pac-12 is earning more by a fair bit) and in another space he's suggesting each league's cut will be similar.

He thinks the Big 12 could wait and get that leverage for themselves, but his sense in the league is that we want to get things nailed down. He's previously said he thinks that the Big 12 should hold off for the open market.

Nailing down things will *not* affect the last two years of the previous contract. For the new schools this kills any chance of full revenue-sharing before the new contract starts.

(10-24-2022 09:37 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Ok. if they got an = share (one 13th) it would be about 8%, if they actually get 20% it is much worse than I guessed it would be.

I can't think of a reason that the admin costs would go up with the value of the deal, so I would not expect that value to go up with the conference value. Not unless the schools actively want increased conference operations.

(10-24-2022 09:37 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-24-2022 08:06 AM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 12:29 PM)cc22 Wrote:  

(10-22-2022 09:38 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(10-20-2022 08:21 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  The $40M+ range is on par with the ACC.

If it’s $50M-60M range, that makes it hard for ESPN to keep the ACC happy.

that would be $480 mil per year, I don't see it. $360 would be 30 mil.
$400 being thrown around would be enough for everyone to get just a hair over 30 mil and conf take a 13th share of same amount for overhead.

$400 million makes perfect sense.

Conference doesn't take an equal share in the Big 12 unless they've changed

You're right, the only reason the SEC, ACC, Pac-12, and B1G take equal share is because of their conference networks. Big 12 schools only pay 20% of their TV dealn(Tier 1 ans 2). So right now they pay 2 million per school.

Ok. if they got an = share (one 13th) it would be about 8%, if they actually get 20% it is much worse than I guessed it would be.

No, if it would be worse because I'm pretty sure the ACC schools would still pay in the neighborhood of 20%. The full share is to the conference network not the conference. They still have to pay to the conference as well.

(10-24-2022 10:23 AM)parialex Wrote:  To throw some cold water on things:

https://nypost.com/2022/10/24/what-big-1...-football/

I slipped by the paywall and here's what I got:

Marchand doesn't think we're going to hit the $400m that we're looking for, and that the Big 12 and Pac-12 will receive "similar contracts". He has us at $350-360m right now.

Big 12 to Fox and ESPN, Pac-12 to ESPN and Amazon. Apple is a non-player. Turner could be a wildcard here. Mentioned in the context of Pac-12. He thinks Fox is out. He also thinks Fox's participation in the Big 12 may be more limited than the current 50/50 split.

Amazon is not looking to pay anybody a premium. (He doesn't mention this, but for context they had previously offered a premium for F1 and Big Ten.) Pac-12 lacks bidders, but...

He thinks the Pac-12 is in a better spot than the Big 12 just by the increased leverage of the open market. Reading between the lines there is a non-trivial chance that the Pac-12 will actually get more on a per-team basis. It's a little unclear because in one space he's suggesting the top-line would be similar (in which case the Pac-12 is earning more by a fair bit) and in another space he's suggesting each league's cut will be similar.

He thinks the Big 12 could wait and get that leverage for themselves, but his sense in the league is that we want to get things nailed down. He's previously said he thinks that the Big 12 should hold off for the open market.

Nailing down things will *not* affect the last two years of the previous contract. For the new schools this kills any chance of full revenue-sharing before the new contract starts.

That's not cold water at all. 350 to 360 is still a huge raise for the Big 12. The Big 12's record payout was 42.6 million, the 350 to 360 million would guarantee an average 44 to 45 million so the average pay would be higher than the record payout. There's no doubt that the 400 million was thrown out there in order to get a deal like that. Also he's saying that they may get more revenue (I have my doubts) but they'll pay more on infrastructure (li,e the Pac-12) and expenses, etc. The Pac-12 would also give up a ton in exposure, visibility and stability. They also don't add in the additional 10 to 11 million that each non-Texas and Oklahoma school makes on average from the Tier 3 packages that aren't connected ted to a conference network or ESPN+. That's the actual Big 12 payout willbe much higher and the conference will be more stable.

(10-24-2022 10:52 AM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  They also don't add in the additional 10 to 11 million that each non-Texas and Oklahoma school makes on average from the Tier 3 packages that aren't connected ted to a conference network or ESPN+. That's the actual Big 12 payout willbe much higher and the conference will be more stable.

This I think is one of the bigger questions. My assumption is that the #360 figure includes all Tier 3 rights to ESPN+. I don't think ESPN signs otherwise given that ESPN+ is a very important part of the package to them. They don't want that going anywhere else. Also Marchand's "combination" comments make me think it includes everything.

If I'm wrong about that, then yeah that makes a huge difference.

Question for the Big 12 veterans: How much of the conference's Tier 3 is not currently on ESPN+? My impression is that it was nearly all of it if not all of it - excluding UT and OU - but if that's the case I would expect Tier 3 revenue to be equal and I recall that Kansas laps everybody. But I also recall something about WVU having to buy back its Tier 3 rights so that they could be reassigned to ESPN. So how does that work?

(10-24-2022 11:08 AM)parialex Wrote:  

(10-24-2022 10:52 AM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  They also don't add in the additional 10 to 11 million that each non-Texas and Oklahoma school makes on average from the Tier 3 packages that aren't connected ted to a conference network or ESPN+. That's the actual Big 12 payout willbe much higher and the conference will be more stable.

This I think is one of the bigger questions. My assumption is that the #360 figure includes all Tier 3 rights to ESPN+. I don't think ESPN signs otherwise given that ESPN+ is a very important part of the package to them. They don't want that going anywhere else. Also Marchand's "combination" comments make me think it includes everything.

If I'm wrong about that, then yeah that makes a huge difference.

Question for the Big 12 veterans: How much of the conference's Tier 3 is not currently on ESPN+? My impression is that it was nearly all of it if not all of it - excluding UT and OU - but if that's the case I would expect Tier 3 revenue to be equal and I recall that Kansas laps everybody. But I also recall something about WVU having to buy back its Tier 3 rights so that they could be reassigned to ESPN. So how does that work?

I've read somewhere that the $400 million would only be for Tier 1 and Tier 2.

If Tier 3 were to be included for espn+, could that be a way to get to the $400 mil?

(10-24-2022 12:21 PM)dave108 Wrote:  I've read somewhere that the $400 million would only be for Tier 1 and Tier 2.

If Tier 3 were to be included for espn+, could that be a way to get to the $400 mil?

I've read that, too, but I'm discounting it at the moment because I've heard it almost exclusively from Pro-XII sources and the main source I've seen is DudeOfWV who I do not consider trustworthy.

But it could be true.

How are expansion schools getting pd

(10-24-2022 02:52 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  How are expansion schools getting pd

do you mean the new 4 starting next year?
I suspect from OUT exit money: basically $10-20M a year to each rather than the conference distribution of 40M each to OUT

(10-24-2022 03:54 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(10-24-2022 02:52 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  How are expansion schools getting pd

do you mean the new 4 starting next year?
I suspect from OUT exit money: basically $10-20M a year to each rather than the conference distribution of 40M each to OUT

Right. I believe we're getting half shares. Two schools are sacrificing their shares and four are getting paid. The math takes care of itself.

This is similar to what the AAC is doing, except with 3 and 6.

Well we will know fairly soon where things are. We really know nothing right now, Will a deal even be made? What is included in what ever they are working on? How much?

The Pac was being offered 20 mil by ESPN, I doubt they pay that much for part of the inventory. So how much is a Amazon deal worth, and what does it include?

No one really knows anything including all the media experts.

Marchand/Ourand have a new podcast up.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/th...0583941564

Mostly about Nantz but a bit about Big 12 and Pac 12

Marchand doubles down on his timeline, that something with the Big 12 will be announced soon (he doesn’t seem to think it’s a question as to whether or not we will make a deal now or go to the open market). Ourand says that Pac-12 may actually be on hold until we’re done and that ESPN/Fox/Amazon may be waiting to see where the benchmark is put for us. That could be taken as bad for us if they think we will set the benchmark low.

Marchand has progressed from saying that $350-360 is the number right now to suggesting that it is likely where things are going to end up. Around $225 from ESPN and $135m from Fox.

He doesn’t say whether that includes T3 though ESPN+ could explain the difference between ESPN and Fox numbers. On the other hand Thompson said elsewhere that ESPN needs more content than Fox so he’d expect ESPN to pick up more games. He also said that Fox probably doesn’t need Big 12 basketball at all, which could also account for the difference without T3 being the explanation.

The math Ourand puts out gives the Pac-12 a significant advantage (Closer to $40m for them vs our $30m), but then the next minute he is talking about roughly equivalent offers. This makes me think I am applying too much specificity to the numbers he’s using.

Both say that nobody is probably moving between the conferences. Marchand says the exception could be if Pac-12 members are not happy with the streaming component.

Everything Marchand says about Amazon makes me wonder if they’re actually interested at all in the Pac-12. Nothing he says affirms interest except that he says Apple is out and doesn’t say that about Amazon. My guess is that his connections are with ESPN and so isn’t really privy to Amazon negotiations. He did have a chat with an Amazon person recently, but less "off the record" type stuff. I continue to believe that if Amazon wants into college football we more closely match their needs than the Pac-12 does (though I want us to focus on linear and it sounds like we are).

Ourand says the original asking from Pac-12 was $500m, which may be the “hundreds of millions apart”.

By the way correction, I said that Big 12 schools pay 20% per member per year on their TV Tier 1 TV deal (20 million per member) it's actually 10%, or 2 million per member each year.

(10-26-2022 12:28 PM)parialex Wrote:  Marchand/Ourand have a new podcast up.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/th...0583941564

Mostly about Nantz but a bit about Big 12 and Pac 12

Marchand doubles down on his timeline, that something with the Big 12 will be announced soon (he doesn’t seem to think it’s a question as to whether or not we will make a deal now or go to the open market). Ourand says that Pac-12 may actually be on hold until we’re done and that ESPN/Fox/Amazon may be waiting to see where the benchmark is put for us. That could be taken as bad for us if they think we will set the benchmark low.

Marchand has progressed from saying that $350-360 is the number right now to suggesting that it is likely where things are going to end up. Around $225 from ESPN and $135m from Fox.

He doesn’t say whether that includes T3 though ESPN+ could explain the difference between ESPN and Fox numbers. On the other hand Thompson said elsewhere that ESPN needs more content than Fox so he’d expect ESPN to pick up more games. He also said that Fox probably doesn’t need Big 12 basketball at all, which could also account for the difference without T3 being the explanation.

The math Ourand puts out gives the Pac-12 a significant advantage (Closer to $40m for them vs our $30m), but then the next minute he is talking about roughly equivalent offers. This makes me think I am applying too much specificity to the numbers he’s using.

Both say that nobody is probably moving between the conferences. Marchand says the exception could be if Pac-12 members are not happy with the streaming component.

I would love to hear where he gets $40 million from. Everything we hear is 20 to 25 from ESPN. If Amazon is interested, and no one knows if they are, ESPN is likely to lose games and offer less not more. I think it is possible the PAC grabs 30 million in an Amazon ESPN deal, assuming an Amazon deal is possible.

(10-28-2022 08:10 AM)CatsClaw1 Wrote:  By the way correction, I said that Big 12 schools pay 20% per member per year on their TV Tier 1 TV deal (20 million per member) it's actually 10%, or 2 million per member each year.

That makes more sense. I couldn't imagine 20 million. with 10 schools that worked out close to the 1 equal share.