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Massey Index Conference Rankings
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parialex Offline
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Massey Index Conference Rankings
I have a spreadsheet that I am using to rank the conferences using the Massey Index. The Massey site already ranks them, but I have things plugged in so that we can see the numbers for the realigned conferences (excluding the FCS additions to Conference USA).

Here are the current rankings (let's see if this works):

[Image: Fe9tJlrWQAIUGCJ?format=png&name=360x360]

Observations:

We're mid-season, but for the CURRENT membership most of the rest of the games will be in-conference so I don't expect much movement. For FUTURE, there will be movement because the realigning teams are playing "out of conference" in that tally.

The fact that the three teams going from the AAC to the Big 12 have a combined conference record of 5-1 so far are probably inflating the Big 12's future strength and deflating the AAC's. It's not clear how well the incoming teams will do with the tougher Big 12 schedule and those games will be incorporated in the baseline .500 record the conference will have in conference play.

That said, the Big 12 is really kicking some [redacted] before and after realignment. Really impressive and encouraging. If they hadn't nailed down the playoff format, it would have been hard to devise a "SuperTwo" or "Power Four" that excludes us (even if USC-UCLA hadn't jumped).

Last year I did the comparison with Sagarin instead of Massey and it told a similar story for the G5. The Big Ten closer to the SEC and Big 12 though.

The ACC and Pac-12 are closer to the current AAC than they are to the SEC. That seems very notable.

It's not listed, but adding the corner schools puts the Big 12 squarely between the Big Ten and ACC at 43.4.

At the G5 level these numbers make me more bullish on the AAC. As of right now at least the gap with the SBC isn't big and going forward the AAC will have a media advantage.

This has to be the worst season in Mountain West Conference history. Just astonishingly bad. I have to think this is a one-off but good heavens they were passed up by Conference USA.

My CURRENT numbers are slightly different than the ones on the Massey site because they are less refined. I put them up mostly for an apples-to-apples comparison. Really, though, the difference is within any margin of error for such crude measurements.
10-14-2022 10:28 AM
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Huan Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
interesting we would drop by taking the corner 4; would this drop be less if we don't take all 4?
10-14-2022 11:22 AM
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parialex Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-14-2022 11:22 AM)Huan Wrote:  interesting we would drop by taking the corner 4; would this drop be less if we don't take all 4?

I would think so. Only Utah adds competitive value. The other three are ranked in the bottom half of FBS (not P5... FBS).

I ran the numbers for the Big Ten and it's the same over there. if they add the four they are rumored to be considering, they go down. (They're okay if just Washington and Oregon, though.)

Do you know who could be added to either conference without hurting them?

Washington State and Oregon State. The two that would be left behind are currently out-performing either of the two sets of four
10-14-2022 11:45 AM
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Huan Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
Interesting. How bad is adding just Arizona and sdsu?
10-14-2022 12:28 PM
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parialex Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
Not good (Arizona is #83, SDSU #102) but adding two drags is not as deleterious as adding four. I think if we're adding the corner schools (or SDSU) we are basically counting on them improving. (Not a bad bet, IMO. Arizona State in particular seems underperforming its potential and Colorado was more successful in the Big 12)
10-14-2022 12:51 PM
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Kruciff Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-14-2022 12:51 PM)parialex Wrote:  Not good (Arizona is #83, SDSU #102) but adding two drags is not as deleterious as adding four. I think if we're adding the corner schools (or SDSU) we are basically counting on them improving. (Not a bad bet, IMO. Arizona State in particular seems underperforming its potential and Colorado was more successful in the Big 12)
The answer is simple. If the B1G isn't going to make a move, get Oregon, Washington, Utah, and there can be a battle royale for whoever wants spot #4.


Or 3 adds in the west, 15 total are fine until the ACC shows cracks and you add Pitt, VT, Louisville, Miami, and ... GT? Memphis?


Come to think of it, with the above in mind, do we really need four more adds? You could play every team in the conference at home every 4 years if you just have two permanent rivals and 6 rotating conference games
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2022 06:59 AM by Kruciff.)
10-15-2022 06:56 AM
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parialex Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-15-2022 06:56 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  The answer is simple. If the B1G isn't going to make a move, get Oregon, Washington, Utah, and there can be a battle royale for whoever wants spot #4.


Or 3 adds in the west, 15 total are fine until the ACC shows cracks and you add Pitt, VT, Louisville, Miami, and ... GT? Memphis?


Come to think of it, with the above in mind, do we really need four more adds? You could play every team in the conference at home every 4 years if you just have two permanent rivals and 6 rotating conference games

If Oregon and Washington are gettable from the top then that changes the dynamics completely. But I don't think they are as I think they are B1G or Bust. I think the only way we get those two are to destroy their conference, which means taking at least two and possibly four other Pac-12 teams first.
10-15-2022 11:35 AM
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parialex Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
Updated numbers:

[Image: FfXeQgZWIAALUNR?format=png&name=360x360]

I ran the numbers for hypothetical conferences, the Big Ten with the four they're reportedly interested in and the Big 12 with the corner schools. As well as the combined ranking of Oregon State and Washington State

Pac-2: 41
Big 16: 44.1
B1G 20: 44.9
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2022 12:18 PM by parialex.)
10-18-2022 12:17 PM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
We at UCF hold Massey near and dear to our hearts.
10-19-2022 09:54 AM
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RobUCF Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-19-2022 09:54 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  We at UCF hold Massey near and dear to our hearts.

We do? Personally I prefer the Colley Matrix.
10-19-2022 11:32 AM
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Endless Purple Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
Massey is the one that voted UCF #1 the other year if I remember correct.
10-19-2022 07:57 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-19-2022 07:57 PM)Endless Purple Wrote:  Massey is the one that voted UCF #1 the other year if I remember correct.

UCF was recognized by the NCAA as national champion in 2017 due to being ranked #1 in the Colley Matrix

https://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/...ank17.htmlhttps://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/...ank17.html
10-20-2022 09:43 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-20-2022 09:43 AM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(10-19-2022 07:57 PM)Endless Purple Wrote:  Massey is the one that voted UCF #1 the other year if I remember correct.

UCF was recognized by the NCAA as national champion in 2017 due to being ranked #1 in the Colley Matrix

https://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/...ank17.htmlhttps://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/...ank17.html

You are correct. Silver moment on my part.
10-20-2022 11:04 AM
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Aztecgolfer Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
(10-14-2022 12:51 PM)parialex Wrote:  Not good (Arizona is #83, SDSU #102) but adding two drags is not as deleterious as adding four. I think if we're adding the corner schools (or SDSU) we are basically counting on them improving. (Not a bad bet, IMO. Arizona State in particular seems underperforming its potential and Colorado was more successful in the Big 12)

Our 2021 Massy Rating was 26 football, 28 basketball. We are having a down year this year going with an inexperienced O-line and having issues at QB, though the latter looks to have improved quite a bit bringing Jaylen Mayden back to the position.
10-20-2022 03:18 PM
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parialex Offline
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RE: Massey Index Conference Rankings
Updated numbers. I added a new column for hypothetical conferences. Mostly combinations rumored and asked about.

[Image: Ff2mUTuWYAApBaD?format=png&name=small]

The PacWest was my selection of teams based on a number of factors. People are going to have their own line-ups but I ran several combinations and most of them were square in the 70's (as low as 70.8, as high as 78.6) with this one being about average. My two most controversial inclusions, New Mexico and UTSA, cancel each other out because the latter is good and the former terrible.

The SEC is improving and looks like they might pass us up on the CURRENT column. Future Big 12 hurt a bit by UCF's loss to ECU.
10-24-2022 01:20 PM
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