So, there is a very real chance that, under the new 12-team format, a 3-loss team (KSU, LSU, or Utah) could get a bye to the quarterfinals. Those being the rules, I suppose it is "fair". Here is a fantasy bracket that would make the 6+6 MORE fair:

What if only champs with 1 or fewer losses get a bye (Maybe G5 champs need to be undefeated)? To compensate, this means your lowest ranked teams could be playing in a "Play-In" round, before the "First" round, before the "Quarterfinal" round. I don't think it is so bad if a 10-win team has to win 2 extra games to get to the same round as a 12-win team.

You could enhance it further by giving undefeated Power 5 champs byes straight to the Semifinals. But, you'd have to cap the number of byes so you can still fit all 12 teams (same teams: 6 champs + 6 at larges) into the playoff.

Each loss Clemson suffered should knock them further down the playoffs. While Michigan always needed to beat Ohio State and Purdue to get a bye, losing to Illinois should also have had >0 effect on their postseason position. Under this format, EVERY GAME MATTERS.

You'd play 3 games the second weekend of December, 3 the third weekend, and 2 games on New Years Day. The 2 NYD games are always Quarterfinals, but whether the others are "Quarterfinals" or "First Round" or "Play-In" games is TBD until the CCGs are concluded.

In most scenarios you'd have games from multiple rounds played the same weekend. BUT, only teams with byes would be given more rest than their opponents, so having different rounds played the same day will NOT affect the competitive fairness of the bracket.

Rules for byes:
(1) All champs with 1 or fewer losses can get a bye straight to the quarterfinals (maybe G5 need to be undefeated)
(2) If more than 1 team deserves a bye, an undefeated Power champ can get a double bye to the semis IF they are the only such team OR there are only two such teams and no more than 1 other team deserving of a regular bye.
(3) If no team has a double bye and fewer than 4 champs have 1 or fewer losses, the bracket reverts to the standard of giving the top 4 champs byes to the quarterfinals.

Multiple scenarios for 2022:
Ohio State, Tennessee, and Alabama all get home games next week and would be preparing now, even though the shape of the bracket is unknown. This gives them 12-14 days to ready their stadiums, in compliance with the presidents' mandate. I suppose if they move the season up a week, hosts for the first weekend could be determined at the same time as the bracket. Winners of these games may play a week later, on the third weekend of December, or on New Years Day. The exact shape of the bracket is determined only after the CCGs are complete and the number of champs with 0 or 1 losses is known.

Scenario 1 (0-8-4-0)
Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC all win their championships: all 4 get byes to the QFs, as standard. The first weekend holds 3 First Round Games, while the second weekend holds the fourth First Round Game (the one not hosted by OSU/Tenn/Bama) and two QFs (2 of UGA/UM/TCU/USC hosting two winners from the OSU/Tenn/Bama games). The last two QFs (2 of UGA/UM/TCU/USC hosting the third first weekend winner and the lone QF winner from the second weekend) are held on NYD.

Scenario 2 (6-3-1-2)
Georgia, Michigan, and only 1 of TCU/USC win their championships: UGA and UM get byes to the Semis, while TCU/USC goes straight to the Quarters. The first weekend (hosted by OSU/Tenn/Bama) are all Play-In games whose winners play the second weekend @ the top 3 remaining teams. Those three winners then play NYD, along with TCU/USC, with the two winners of those games meeting UGA/UM in the semis.

Scenario 3 (4-6-0-2)
Georgia and Michigan win; TCU and USC lose. UGA and UM against get byes straight to the Semis. Only 2 of the first week games (the Tennessee and Alabama games) are turned into Play-In games, likely against the AAC winner and whoever is #11. Ohio State's game and the three second weekend games (2 of which will include winners of the Tenn & Bama games), will send their 4 winners to the 2 NYD games. The 2 winners of the NYD games will meet UGA/UM in the semis

Scenario 4 (2-7-2-1)
TCU, USC, and one of Georgia/Michigan wins. UGA/UM goes straight to the semis while TCU and USC go straight to the Quarters. Tennessee hosts seed #12 in the play-in round. The Ohio State and Alabama games, along with 2 second-weekend games (one of which hosts the winner of the Tennessee game) send their winners to the Quarterfinals. The winners of the Alabama and Ohio State games play a Quarterfinal against each other that same second weekend while the winners of the other two games play TCU and USC in NYD games. Winners of TCU, USC, and OSU/Bama games then join with UGA/UM in the semis a week later.

Scneario 5 (0-10-1-1)
Only one of UGA/UM win and only one of TCU/USC win. The three first weekend games AND two of the three second weekend games are ALL first-round games. The third game on the second week (hosted by TCU/USC) and the two NYD games are all quarterfinals. The three winners will join UGA/UM in the January semis.

Scenario 6 (0-8-4-0)
Georgia and Michigan both lose. We are left with fewer than 4 champs that qualify for a bye and none earn a double-bye so we revert to the standard bracket with no pre-first-round games. This is the only scenario that allows teams with >1 loss to get a bye. The teams getting byes are: LSU, Clemson/UNC, USC/Utah, and TCU/KSU.

Theoretical Other Scenarios:
Below are all possible scenarios that can fit into this schedule. Each number represents the number of teams entering the playoff each round (PlayIn-FirstRound-Quarterfinal-Semifinal).
0-8-4-0
2-5-5-0
4-2-6-0
0-10-1-1
2-7-2-1
4-4-3-1
6-1-4-1
4-6-0-2
6-3-1-2
Who plays which weekend can be difficult to deduce. Most have only a single possible bracket, so you should be able to figure out the schedule from the above sets.

For a 3 loss team to get a bye, we’d have to have 3 of the top 6 conferences produce a stinker of a champion. The odds of 3 of the leagues all performing poorly is going to be low.

You also have to consider the shuffling of members that will be occurring as well as the move to 1 vs 2 CCG games. I don’t think we have much to worry about

(12-02-2022 05:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For a 3 loss team to get a bye, we’d have to have 3 of the top 6 conferences produce a stinker of a champion. The odds of 3 of the leagues all performing poorly is going to be low.

You also have to consider the shuffling of members that will be occurring as well as the move to 1 vs 2 CCG games. I don’t think we have much to worry about

Well, a 3-loss team got a bye and the two 3-loss champions were both from leagues with 1v2 CCGs.

The point was moreso that dumping 10-3 Utah (or 11-2 Clemson) into the same round as 13-0 Georgia devalues the regular season. It is good to give Champs a seeding preference, but not all champs are created equally.

how about we don't reinvent the wheel. They have a good format and it's fair. Don't like it, win your conference. That's fair.

(12-02-2022 05:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For a 3 loss team to get a bye, we’d have to have 3 of the top 6 conferences produce a stinker of a champion. The odds of 3 of the leagues all performing poorly is going to be low.

I mean, it happened this year.

(12-07-2022 10:54 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-02-2022 05:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For a 3 loss team to get a bye, we’d have to have 3 of the top 6 conferences produce a stinker of a champion. The odds of 3 of the leagues all performing poorly is going to be low.

You also have to consider the shuffling of members that will be occurring as well as the move to 1 vs 2 CCG games. I don’t think we have much to worry about

Well, a 3-loss team got a bye and the two 3-loss champions were both from leagues with 1v2 CCGs.

The point was moreso that dumping 10-3 Utah (or 11-2 Clemson) into the same round as 13-0 Georgia devalues the regular season. It is good to give Champs a seeding preference, but not all champs are created equally.

I think you're overthinking. #1 seed Georgia has no complaints, and would have no complaints in the new system. (Remotely, they may complain about preferring not to rematch Tennessee in the quarterfinals, and face a new opponent. But that's a quibble)

And TV, and everyone involved in prep and setup, would HATE not knowing in advance how many games are happening when.

Here is what would have been produced this year. Note the "solution" to semifinals: On campus games with 5+ weeks of lead time (to find alternate mid-January sites if need be).

Note again that even WITH flexible byes, all game times are determined pre-season; TV does not have to scramble last minute to carve out air time. Remember also the 3 first week hosts were determined pre-CCGs; Bama was told to prep for a Friday game mostly because they are CTZ.

Not mentioned in the OP is that conference champs with 3 or fewer losses (notably Kansas State and Tulane) do not have to play in any Play-In Round. Below is the bracket with rankings (not seeds) among 12 qualifiers. Teams are paired based on the highest ranked team from each matchup.

A challenge to find any team unfairly placed

A: 11 PSU @ 5 Alabama (Fr. 9th) *PLAY-IN*
B: 10 USC @ 6 Tenn (Sa. 10th) *PLAY-IN*
C: 9 KSU @ 4 Ohio State (Sa. 10th)

D: winner-A @ 8 Utah (10-3) (Fr. 16th)
E: 12 Tulane @ 3 TCU (12-1) (Sa. 17th)
F: winner-B @ 7 Clemson (11-2) (Sa. 17th)

G: winner-C vs. winner-D (Fiesta Bowl, Mo. 2nd)
H: winner-E vs. winner-F (Peach Bowl, Mo. 2nd)

J: winner-G @ 1 Georgia (13-0) (Fr. 13th)
I: winner-H @ 2 Michigan (13-0) (Sa. 14th) *Good chance played @ Ford Field

K: National Championship (Sa. 28th)

(12-07-2022 11:05 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  I think you're overthinking. #1 seed Georgia has no complaints, and would have no complaints in the new system. (Remotely, they may complain about preferring not to rematch Tennessee in the quarterfinals, and face a new opponent. But that's a quibble)

And TV, and everyone involved in prep and setup, would HATE not knowing in advance how many games are happening when.

TV and everyone would know EXACTLY how many games are happening and when, years in advance. That is one of the noted features of this model.

While Georgia may not complain (like the OP says, they know the rules). It is unfair to football fans that if Georgia had lost to Kentucky and Georgia Tech to close the regular season, they would have placed it roughly the same spot in the bracket. Those games mean less if Georgia still gets a Top 4 seed.

(12-07-2022 10:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  how about we don't reinvent the wheel. They have a good format and it's fair. Don't like it, win your conference. That's fair.

Yeah - I've always been of the opinion that every playoff format needs to be K.I.S.S.: Keep It Simple Stupid.

As hard core fans, we get obsessed about the exceptions and unique situations, so we are focused on addressing all of those non-standard items. It's understood that a CCG loser but still gets an at-large bid (like TCU and USC would have gotten this year) is going to have to play an additional game compared to at-large schools that didn't make their CCG. However, the reality is that the general public needs to understand within 10 seconds how the playoff format works. A fourth grader should be able to understand it.

Just look at how the concept of the Group Stage in the World Cup needs to be explained to Americans every 4 years. I actually love that format (as it's less random than a straight bracket) and don't think it's that complicated, but you would think that it's explaining particle physics to the average American sports fan.

Heck - the CFP is so wedded to the straight NCAA Tournament-style bracket that they won't even reorganize the matchups by seed each playoff round in the way that the NFL does (which I believe would be significantly more impactful on making the playoff "fair"). They couldn't even comprehend so many "if X happens, then this game gets played in week 1 but if Y happens, then that same game gets played in week 2" scenarios.

At the same time, that "bye or no bye" situation is exactly what will make the CCGs extremely compelling to the average fan. As stever20 noted, just win your conference championship if you don't want to play an extra game. That should absolutely mean something.

I'm with Frank. K.I.S.S.

Win and get the bye week. Lose and you have to play. Simple stuff.

(12-07-2022 10:54 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-02-2022 05:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  For a 3 loss team to get a bye, we’d have to have 3 of the top 6 conferences produce a stinker of a champion. The odds of 3 of the leagues all performing poorly is going to be low.

You also have to consider the shuffling of members that will be occurring as well as the move to 1 vs 2 CCG games. I don’t think we have much to worry about

Well, a 3-loss team got a bye and the two 3-loss champions were both from leagues with 1v2 CCGs.

The point was moreso that dumping 10-3 Utah (or 11-2 Clemson) into the same round as 13-0 Georgia devalues the regular season. It is good to give Champs a seeding preference, but not all champs are created equally.

The 4 byes are a feature, not a bug. 10-3 Utah getting one of the 4 byes enhances the regular season tremendously. So many more teams and so many more games matter down the stretch.

To your point that not all champs are created equally, 1-seed Georgia gets a bowl game against #6 Tennessee, the 4th wild card, or #9 Kansas State, the 5th conference champ; 4-seed Utah gets a bowl game against #4 Ohio State, the 2nd wild card. That's a big difference.

(12-02-2022 05:17 PM)Crayton Wrote:  So, there is a very real chance that, under the new 12-team format, a 3-loss team (KSU, LSU, or Utah) could get a bye to the quarterfinals. Those being the rules, I suppose it is "fair". Here is a fantasy bracket that would make the 6+6 MORE fair:

What if only champs with 1 or fewer losses get a bye (Maybe G5 champs need to be undefeated)? To compensate, this means your lowest ranked teams could be playing in a "Play-In" round, before the "First" round, before the "Quarterfinal" round. I don't think it is so bad if a 10-win team has to win 2 extra games to get to the same round as a 12-win team.

You could enhance it further by giving undefeated Power 5 champs byes straight to the Semifinals. But, you'd have to cap the number of byes so you can still fit all 12 teams (same teams: 6 champs + 6 at larges) into the playoff.

Each loss Clemson suffered should knock them further down the playoffs. While Michigan always needed to beat Ohio State and Purdue to get a bye, losing to Illinois should also have had >0 effect on their postseason position. Under this format, EVERY GAME MATTERS.

You'd play 3 games the second weekend of December, 3 the third weekend, and 2 games on New Years Day. The 2 NYD games are always Quarterfinals, but whether the others are "Quarterfinals" or "First Round" or "Play-In" games is TBD until the CCGs are concluded.

In most scenarios you'd have games from multiple rounds played the same weekend. BUT, only teams with byes would be given more rest than their opponents, so having different rounds played the same day will NOT affect the competitive fairness of the bracket.

The way its set up is fine. Those teams won it on the field. Now, I'm not a fan of the top 2 CCG. I prefer the division setup, but in reality, that is going away. 3 conferences have done away with it, 3 have no intention of returning to it after expansion and the Big 10 and SEC are talking about doing away with divisions. MAC and Sun Belt will probably follow the other 8.

I wonder if the 6 conference champs be two G5 teams with unbeaten records that are ranked in the top 10? Boise State and TCU back then in the 2009/10? Then lets say the PAC 12 champ gets an at large bid of the 12 team field?

#1 Alabama SEC
#2 Texas Big 12
#3 Cincinnati Big East
#4 TCU MWC
#5 Florida SEC
#6 Boise State WAC
#7 Oregon PAC 12
#8 Ohio State Big 10
#9 Georgia Tech ACC
#10 Iowa Big 10
#11 Virginia Tech ACC
#13 Penn State Big 10
I put Penn State with a 10-2 record over number 12 LSU with a 9-3 record.

#12 LSU SEC
#14 BYU MWC 10-2
#15 Miami, Florida ACC
#16 West Virginia Big East
#17 Pittsburgh ACC
#18 Oregon State PAC 12
#19 Oklahoma State Big 12
#20 Arizona PAC 12
#21 Stanford PAC 12
#22 Nebraska Big 12
#23 Utah 9-3 MWC
#24 USC PAC 12
#25 Wisconsin Big 10
Central Michigan 11-2 MAC

Alabama, Texas, TCU and Cincinnati gets the first round byes. There were 5 teams unbeaten. Boise State was the lowest of the 5 unbeatens that year.

#5 Florida Vs #13 Penn State
#6 Boise State Vs #11 Virginia Tech
#7 Oregon Vs #10 Iowa
#8 Ohio State Vs #9 Georgia Tech

#1 Alabama Vs Florida/Penn State winner
#2 Texas Vs Boise State/Virginia Tech winner
#3 Cincinnati Vs. Oregon/Iowa winner
#4 TCU Vs Ohio State/Georgia Tech winner

#1Alabama/Florida/Penn State Vs TCU/OHio State/Georgia Tech winner
#2 Texas/Boise State/Virginia Tech Vs Cincinnati/Oregon/Iowa winner

Lets say #1 Alabama wins and # 6 Boise State wins out?
Alabama vs Boise State for the championship game.

(12-07-2022 11:10 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  As hard core fans, we get obsessed about the exceptions and unique situations, so we are focused on addressing all of those non-standard items. It's understood that a CCG loser but still gets an at-large bid (like TCU and USC would have gotten this year) is going to have to play an additional game compared to at-large schools that didn't make their CCG. However, the reality is that the general public needs to understand within 10 seconds how the playoff format works. A fourth grader should be able to understand it.

Just look at how the concept of the Group Stage in the World Cup needs to be explained to Americans every 4 years. I actually love that format (as it's less random than a straight bracket) and don't think it's that complicated, but you would think that it's explaining particle physics to the average American sports fan.

Heck - the CFP is so wedded to the straight NCAA Tournament-style bracket that they won't even reorganize the matchups by seed each playoff round in the way that the NFL does (which I believe would be significantly more impactful on making the playoff "fair"). They couldn't even comprehend so many "if X happens, then this game gets played in week 1 but if Y happens, then that same game gets played in week 2" scenarios.

At the same time, that "bye or no bye" situation is exactly what will make the CCGs extremely compelling to the average fan. As stever20 noted, just win your conference championship if you don't want to play an extra game. That should absolutely mean something.

I too like the how the World Cup does it so that any two teams could meet in the Final. And I agree that the CFP is showing NO inclination toward anything but the simplest (K.I.S.S) bracket.

To the fourth grader:
Undefeated: bye to the semis
1-loss champ: bye to the quarters
everyone else: First Round
4+loss champs and worst at larges: Play-In (if needed)

To the last about compelling CCGs:
The OP format would preserve this. Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC are still: win to get a bye, lose and you are in the First Round. Clemson, UNC, LSU, Kansas State, and Utah (and UCF/Tulane) are all win to get a playoff spot, lose and you are out. The ONLY stakes changing in those games are that Clemson and Utah luck into byes less often.