I don’t think we’ve done this yet. What will happen this year? How will the transition year go? Are the Dukes biting off more than they can chew in year one?

I’ll go with a .500 FBS record and a win against FCS Norfolk St to have the Dukes at 6-5 this year. Not bad at all for history’s fastest transition from FCS to FBS program.

Among things we will learn this year is how good Cig is as an underdog coach. It is easy to win when you can outman almost all of your opponents. What happens when you are outmanned for several games?

6-5 overall (4-4 in the Sun Belt)
4-2 at home, 3-3 on the road
What say ye?

MTSU win
Norfolk St win
App State loss
Texas St win
Arkansas St loss
Georgia Southern win
Marshall loss
Louisville loss
ODU win
Ga State win
Coastal Carolina loss

I will only be surprised if JMU finishes 1-10 or 10-1. Anything in between could happen with reasonable circumstances. It will be interesting to see the impact of injuries on quality depth or how Cig may tank the season late in the year to give PT to players who will be playing in 2023.

7-4

MTSU win
Norfolk St win
App State loss
Texas St win
Arkansas St win
Georgia Southern win
Marshall toss up
Louisville toss up
ODU win
Ga State win
Coastal Carolina win

I think 6-5 would be a great first year at the FBS level. Our depth is going to be tested for sure. Can’t wait for Saturday. Go Dukes!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

6-5 all day

(08-31-2022 11:41 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  6-5 all day

This is my hope. It would be extremely solid in a first year of transition. Go look at ODU, App State, and Georgia Southern and their records in the first year of transition. It's not pretty, and they were mostly playing FCS teams. There are growing pains. I think 2023 will be more telling.

I'm not sure any of us know for sure until we get past the first 3 or 4 FBS games how we stack up. It feels to me like our OL and run game will be as strong as its ever been, but possibly we will need work elsewhere. Every team has some strength and weakness.

SBC has some of the best G5 teams in the country, and the east is loaded. We're going to be facing NFL caliber QBs, WRs, etc along the way.

Likely one or two schools we think should be a W will be better than expected and beat us. I can already hear the cries about how we got "outcoached". But I also think we have a good shot at pulling a few unexpected upsets ourselves.

I'd be pretty happy with a 6-5 start. Wouldn't be shocked if the first year ends either a little lower, or higher than that. Even the "experts" basically have thrown up their hands on predicting it. I did notice it looks like they manually adjusted our Sagarin ranking downward, and initially labeled us an "a" school, not an "A" or "AA." Makes me question that ranking even more when moving divisions changes the score. We didn't suddenly become less competitive than SDSU and Montana overnight.

I do feel whatever the outcome, years 2 and 3 are likely to build on that. The right building blocks are being established and we'll end up in a good place.

I think I said 6-5 or 5-6 depending on the MTSU result a few months ago. With departures and with what appears to be many of the FBS transfers not making the 2 deep, I think I will revise that to 4-7 or 5-6. I think our future is bright and I am excited to be where we are, but on paper this looks like our weakest team in 8 years or so.

I'm with Newbill. Last poll, I had us at 6-5 (and would be quite happy with that as long as the losses were competitive). Attrition on defense beyond graduation has me thinking 5-6 now. I think the offense may have to carry the load for till the defense gets settled in.
Wins against MTSU, NSU, Texas St, Georgia Southern and ODU.
Go Dukes!

6-5 but could see 5-6 as well. I think the Ga State game is the game that will determine if we have a winning season or not.

MTSU - win
Norfolk St - win
@ App State - loss
Texas St - win
@ Arkansas State - win
@ Georgia Southern - win
Marshall - loss
@ Louisville - loss
@ ODU - loss (ugh)
Ga State - win
Coastal Carolina - loss

MTSU win
Norfolk St win
App State loss
Texas St win
Arkansas St win
Georgia Southern win
Marshall loss
Louisville loss
ODU win
Ga State win
Coastal Carolina win


8-3

MTSU W
Norfolk St W
@App State L
Texas St W
@Arkansas St L
@Georgia Southern W
Marshall W
@Louisville L
@ODU W
Ga State W
Coastal Carolina L

7-4

When transfers don't ascend to a starting or 2 deep role it is equally plausible that the talent we already had was better than some give credit for. I am thinking 7-4 and that Coastal may be a bigger test than Louisville.

MTSU - W
NSU - W
at App State - L
Texas State - W
at stAte - L
at GS - W
Marshall - W
at Louisville - W
at ODU - W
GSU - L
Coastal - L

7-4/4-4

Noah Fleischman, if you watch WHSV, has JMU winning 3 or 4 games. Good grief! The over/under for the team, I thought at one time, was 6.5.

(09-01-2022 09:49 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  Noah Fleischman, if you watch WHSV, has JMU winning 3 or 4 games. Good grief! The over/under for the team, I thought at one time, was 6.5.

I haven't paid attention to how it's changed, but I remember when the line came out most places had 6.5 while barstool sportsbook had 7.5. Surprised to see Noah pick such a low win total, if we don't win a little more than that then some of our question marks must have pretty disappointing answers.

MTSU - W
Norfolk St. - W
App State - L
Texas State - W
Ark State - W
GA Southern - W
Marshall - W
Louisville - L
ODU - W
GA State - W
Coastal Car. - L

7-4

(08-31-2022 11:41 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  6-5 all day

yeah

(09-01-2022 06:39 AM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  I think I said 6-5 or 5-6 depending on the MTSU result a few months ago. With departures and with what appears to be many of the FBS transfers not making the 2 deep, I think I will revise that to 4-7 or 5-6. I think our future is bright and I am excited to be where we are, but on paper this looks like our weakest team in 8 years or so.

How could you see the FBS transfers not making our 2-deep as a negative? At least one of those players started for a Top 25 FBS team last year.

Our existing team is so talented that those transfers can't crack the 2-deep, and you see that as a negative?

I guess I'm the contrarian here but I'm more in line with Fleischman and thinking we'll end up around 4-7 this year. I'm basing that mainly on the roster turnover and the highly increased competition we'll be facing week in and week out. However, with so many unknowns two wins above or below that total wouldn't surprise me at all. I'd be shocked (and ecstatic) if we got to seven or more wins.