(08-29-2022 03:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:27 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS.

UH won’t abandon football. The board of regents just agreed to spend $30 million of the university’s own money to relocate track and field facilities and expand the temporary on-campus stadium from 9K to 17K seats. That’s a huge investment just to make sure the football team can retain its FBS status during the 3-4 years it will take to get a new Aloha Stadium built.

Moreover the shoe-in candidate to take over as Hawaii’s next governor is on the record saying he supports completion of the already-funded $400 million Aloha Stadium replacement project as soon as possible.

My expectation is that UH would be included in a Pac-12 rebuild, given that we wouldn’t require Olympic sports membership, would pay high enough travel subsidies to allow conference opponents to fly charter to Honolulu, would take a reduced conference distribution thanks to our local PPV deal, and would offer disproportionate TV value due to both the Week Zero exemption and last-game-of-the-day broadcast timeslot. Yes our football team sucks at the moment (damn you Todd Graham) but history has shown that given time we’ll be competitive again.

However even in the worst case scenario you describe — remnants of the Pac-12 rebuild by adding 10 MWC schools and leave UH out — I see UH football surviving, most likely by dropping down to FCS and working with the Big West conference to restart Big West football. This could be done by offering full conference memberships to some combination of SJSU (if it’s also left out), Sac State, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah and Utah Tech. Only three of those would have to join to give the Big West the six football schools it would need.

It would be a crime if Hawaii was left out of the pac 12 if they took 10 MWC. SJSU and Wyoming would be the last 2 but I'd just see all of them coming. I think CSU, UNM, AFA would fight for Wyoming and SDSU and Fresno are bound by CSU laws to fight for SJSU.

Hawaii could make it as FBS Indy because everyone likes an exempt game and uh Hawaii. Fresno would play them every year, they're our #2 rival.

(08-29-2022 02:27 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

I think the MWC pecking order is:

1. SDSU
2. Fresno
3. CSU
4. BSU
5. AFA
6. UNLV
7. UNM
8. Utah St
9. Nevada
10. Wyoming
11. Hawaii
12. SJSU

I think Hawaii can jump way higher if the MWC can grab Zaga as a 12th BBall school. Otherwise, I see WSU/OSU stopping with the top 8.

I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS. And if that all happens, that's the last time I ever want to here G5 schools complaining about greed, anti-trust, collusion, or whatever buzz word that fits the week. It's pure greed if we don't see a straight 14 team merger of the MWC. There is no branding advantage with the PAC that doesn't have the Rose Bowl or the academic prestige.

Nobody is going to drop to FCS willingly. C-USA would probably love to have them so that UTEP and NMSU have a much tighter Western Division. It means C-USA expanding to 12 as I believe MTSU or FIU or even UTEP might get an AAC invite to replace SMU.

C-USA, MAC at 12
AAC, Sun Belt at 14

(08-29-2022 03:39 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 03:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:27 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS.

UH won’t abandon football. The board of regents just agreed to spend $30 million of the university’s own money to relocate track and field facilities and expand the temporary on-campus stadium from 9K to 17K seats. That’s a huge investment just to make sure the football team can retain its FBS status during the 3-4 years it will take to get a new Aloha Stadium built.

Moreover the shoe-in candidate to take over as Hawaii’s next governor is on the record saying he supports completion of the already-funded $400 million Aloha Stadium replacement project as soon as possible.

My expectation is that UH would be included in a Pac-12 rebuild, given that we wouldn’t require Olympic sports membership, would pay high enough travel subsidies to allow conference opponents to fly charter to Honolulu, would take a reduced conference distribution thanks to our local PPV deal, and would offer disproportionate TV value due to both the Week Zero exemption and last-game-of-the-day broadcast timeslot. Yes our football team sucks at the moment (damn you Todd Graham) but history has shown that given time we’ll be competitive again.

However even in the worst case scenario you describe — remnants of the Pac-12 rebuild by adding 10 MWC schools and leave UH out — I see UH football surviving, most likely by dropping down to FCS and working with the Big West conference to restart Big West football. This could be done by offering full conference memberships to some combination of SJSU (if it’s also left out), Sac State, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah and Utah Tech. Only three of those would have to join to give the Big West the six football schools it would need.

It would be a crime if Hawaii was left out of the pac 12 if they took 10 MWC. SJSU and Wyoming would be the last 2 but I'd just see all of them coming. I think CSU, UNM, AFA would fight for Wyoming and SDSU and Fresno are bound by CSU laws to fight for SJSU.

Hawaii could make it as FBS Indy because everyone likes an exempt game and uh Hawaii. Fresno would play them every year, they're our #2 rival.

And Fresno State is UH’s #1 rival. Looking forward to our 55th meeting on November 5th.

"Still, I’m throwing this out there because one Pac-12 AD told me he’s in favor of chasing a number of current and future Big 12 teams vs. adding a bunch of Mountain West Conference candidates that dilute the value of the Pac-12.

“Oklahoma State is at the top of my list,” he said.

Odds: 10 to 1.

Uh, no, that isn't going to happen and by printing it Canzano embarrasses himself.

I copied the paragraph from Canzano’s post and posted it here more because of his comments about ESPN not wanting to “disrupt the teetering ecosystem.” If anyone has followed realignment as long as some of us here have, we know better. If there was no ESPN, The Big East would still be playing football.

Personally I don’t believe ESPN has done a good job hiding its wish to get rid of The Big 12. Bowlsby called them on it and that wasn’t the first time ESPN has been complicit.

If ESPN fails to bid on The Big 12 media rights, that will be a tell.

If The Big 12 loses more teams to The SEC, or loses a teams to The ACC or The PAC, I would expect ESPN might have to answer some questions.

(08-29-2022 03:50 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 03:39 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 03:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:27 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS.

UH won’t abandon football. The board of regents just agreed to spend $30 million of the university’s own money to relocate track and field facilities and expand the temporary on-campus stadium from 9K to 17K seats. That’s a huge investment just to make sure the football team can retain its FBS status during the 3-4 years it will take to get a new Aloha Stadium built.

Moreover the shoe-in candidate to take over as Hawaii’s next governor is on the record saying he supports completion of the already-funded $400 million Aloha Stadium replacement project as soon as possible.

My expectation is that UH would be included in a Pac-12 rebuild, given that we wouldn’t require Olympic sports membership, would pay high enough travel subsidies to allow conference opponents to fly charter to Honolulu, would take a reduced conference distribution thanks to our local PPV deal, and would offer disproportionate TV value due to both the Week Zero exemption and last-game-of-the-day broadcast timeslot. Yes our football team sucks at the moment (damn you Todd Graham) but history has shown that given time we’ll be competitive again.

However even in the worst case scenario you describe — remnants of the Pac-12 rebuild by adding 10 MWC schools and leave UH out — I see UH football surviving, most likely by dropping down to FCS and working with the Big West conference to restart Big West football. This could be done by offering full conference memberships to some combination of SJSU (if it’s also left out), Sac State, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah and Utah Tech. Only three of those would have to join to give the Big West the six football schools it would need.

It would be a crime if Hawaii was left out of the pac 12 if they took 10 MWC. SJSU and Wyoming would be the last 2 but I'd just see all of them coming. I think CSU, UNM, AFA would fight for Wyoming and SDSU and Fresno are bound by CSU laws to fight for SJSU.

Hawaii could make it as FBS Indy because everyone likes an exempt game and uh Hawaii. Fresno would play them every year, they're our #2 rival.

And Fresno State is UH’s #1 rival. Looking forward to our 55th meeting on November 5th.

On my 45th bday. I throw a party every year so I won't be going. My wife would have worn my Hawaii Rainbows hat/shirt because she hates Fresno St. I have a name bet w/ a guy named Kona from my Tap baseball app, I had to change my name from Fresno St. to Hawaii Rainbows for 3 hrs. last yr.

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

(08-29-2022 03:56 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I copied the paragraph from Canzano’s post and posted it here more because of his comments about ESPN not wanting to “disrupt the teetering ecosystem.” If anyone has followed realignment as long as some of us here have, we know better. If there was no ESPN, The Big East would still be playing football.

Personally I don’t believe ESPN has done a good job hiding its wish to get rid of The Big 12. Bowlsby called them on it and that wasn’t the first time ESPN has been complicit.

If ESPN fails to bid on The Big 12 media rights, that will be a tell.

If The Big 12 loses more teams to The SEC, or loses a teams to The ACC or The PAC, I would expect ESPN might have to answer some questions.

The B12 appears to be in bed with FOX, you can’t blame ESPN if they choose to support the PAC &/ or ACC instead.

Nobody realistically thought B12 teams where moving to the AAC last year.

If their former commissioner’s action did do damage to the relationship that’s on the B12 IMHO.

ESPN is not required to throw $ at the new B12, however I think they will make a limited offer for some content, especially ESPN+ inventory. As has been laid out a couple times the PAC if they survive better meets ESPN’s available window needs than B12. That’s not ESPN trying to kill B12, it’s them making a decision that works for them. I don’t expect them to juggle their existing coverage of AAC/ Sunbelt/MAAC to make room for B12 games as ESPN has solid win/win relationships with those leagues that I believe they value.

The B12 due to their additions & exit fees are likely very solid and in no danger of being absorbed by PAC or ACC or being killed off.

I think the odds favor the PAC 10 staying at 10 or getting picked apart over the addition of any new members.

(08-29-2022 04:03 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

I would remind you that SWC had no exit fee.

(08-29-2022 05:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 04:03 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

I would remind you that SWC had no exit fee.

Doesn’t the PAC not have an exit fee? (Unless you count the GOR that’s expiring in two years.)

(08-29-2022 06:50 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 05:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 04:03 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

I would remind you that SWC had no exit fee.

Doesn’t the PAC not have an exit fee? (Unless you count the GOR that’s expiring in two years.)

As I recall, its no fee if you give 2 years notice, which is why USC and UCLA announced on June 30.

(08-29-2022 12:45 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  San Diego State: 2 to 1
SMU: 4 to 1
UNLV: 5 to 1
Boise State: 6 to 1
Fresno State: 8 to 1
Big 12 schools: 10 to 1

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...tid=li3ck7

No thanks as a UW supporter

(08-29-2022 02:00 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 01:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.

Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.

The PAC-12, even if it's just a few members, will be able to raid the Mountain West and CUSA, and perhaps the American. It's an Autonomy Conference, and that has value, and that standing doesn't just go away because their membership no longer looks like a "P5." They'll take the most valuable properties available and leave the weaker members (like San Jose St) behind.

What’s the cash value of having Autonomy Conference status in name only? Would it be high enough to convince half a dozen or more MWC members to each pay the MWC’s $16.5 million exit fee?

https://mwwire.com/2022/07/21/mountain-w...3-million/

At 16.5 million, the moving school would be ahead by the end of year 2.

(08-29-2022 10:48 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 12:45 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  San Diego State: 2 to 1
SMU: 4 to 1
UNLV: 5 to 1
Boise State: 6 to 1
Fresno State: 8 to 1
Big 12 schools: 10 to 1

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pa...tid=li3ck7

No thanks as a UW supporter

Agreed. As a Stanford fan I have a hard time understanding why Stanford, Oregon or Washington would agree to expand before I knew what my situation was with the B1G in couple years. I doubt Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Utah or Arizona State would be in a rush to add anyone either. None of those schools moves the meter. Also bringing somebody in complicates the exit. They will want the schools to sign a GOR and institute a very hefty exit fee.

As for the MWC exit fee, even if they wait 6 months to invite San Diego State, they would still accept, and say they are joining no later than 2025. They would then negotiate a settlement for less than $33M, but above the $16.5M to leave a year earlier, my guess is a middle figure like $25M would be the compromise, as both sides would like to get the extra money for 2024 --the leverage being about equal-- and this would work. I could see five years of $5M payments starting after they exit.

The exit fee kills any AAC move. It also kills any move to the Pac-12 until schools know that Oregon and Washington are staying put for a contract cycle. If I was San Diego State I would have "free" outs if any flagship schools left the Pac-12 before 2026.

I don't think a straight move is possible given the instability.

(08-29-2022 02:27 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

I think the MWC pecking order is:

1. SDSU
2. Fresno
3. CSU
4. BSU
5. AFA
6. UNLV
7. UNM
8. Utah St
9. Nevada
10. Wyoming
11. Hawaii
12. SJSU

I think Hawaii can jump way higher if the MWC can grab Zaga as a 12th BBall school. Otherwise, I see WSU/OSU stopping with the top 8.

I think UH abandons football and the rest drop down to FCS. And if that all happens, that's the last time I ever want to here G5 schools complaining about greed, anti-trust, collusion, or whatever buzz word that fits the week. It's pure greed if we don't see a straight 14 team merger of the MWC. There is no branding advantage with the PAC that doesn't have the Rose Bowl or the academic prestige.

My rankings:
1. San Diego St
(gap)
2. UNLV
3. Colorado St
4. Boise St
5. Hawaii
6. Fresno St
7. Nevada
8. New Mexico
9. Utah St
10. Air Force
11. Wyoming
12. San Jose St

(08-29-2022 10:51 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:00 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 01:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 12:53 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I told you Boise was in front of Fresno.

Its a moot point though because if the B1G adds UW/UO/Cal/Stanford in the next few months it won't be strong enough to rebuild.

The PAC-12, even if it's just a few members, will be able to raid the Mountain West and CUSA, and perhaps the American. It's an Autonomy Conference, and that has value, and that standing doesn't just go away because their membership no longer looks like a "P5." They'll take the most valuable properties available and leave the weaker members (like San Jose St) behind.

What’s the cash value of having Autonomy Conference status in name only? Would it be high enough to convince half a dozen or more MWC members to each pay the MWC’s $16.5 million exit fee?

https://mwwire.com/2022/07/21/mountain-w...3-million/

At 16.5 million, the moving school would be ahead by the end of year 2.

Sounds like you're assuming that a rebuilt Pac-12 made up of Oregon State, Washington State and 6-10 MWC schools could land a TV deal that pays at least $8-$10 million per member per year. Given that the MWC is currently being paid $4 million per school per year I'm not sure that's a sound assumption.

Moreover the relevant calculation for an MWC school moving to a reconstituted Pac-12 isn't how long it would take for its new TV earnings to exceed the exit fee, but rather how long it would take for the difference between the current MWC TV payout and the reconstituted Pac-12 TV payout to exceed the exit fee. If we assume hypothetically that a reconstituted Pac-12 actually could land a deal that pays $8 million per school per year, that difference would be $4 million per year and it would take four years for the moving school to earn back the cost of the exit fee.

I agree with HawaiiMongoose on a Pac-12 made up of MWC schools is not likely get any better a contract than the MWC.

First off, I'm convince Kliavkoff will likely resign if another B1G raid comes along, which we all know will be followed on by a four corner exit to the Big 12. That wasn't what he signed on for. ESPN will halt negotiations for TV contract and its back to square one with next to zero value. There is no reason for ESPN to pay the same level as the AAC or more than the MWC get from CBS, so they wont do that? It's almost a CUSA situation.

I'm also going to counter the point of the realignment guru about basketball credits staying with the Pac-12. Only schools that remain in the Pac-12 get the benefit of those. Any schools leaving the Mountain West lose the credits they had in that conference and start Pac-12 play with ZERO credits. They will only get a 1/5th share of credits from their first year, then 1/5th from their 1 & 2nd years the following year as they build back up. They wont get any benefit from the credits earned by Arizona, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Oregon and others. The remaining credit payments will flow only to WSU and OSU.

So a school leaving the MWC starts over on basketball credits, has to pay an exit fee from the MWC of at least $16.5M, and probably somewhere between $25-33M depending on what they negotiate, since 2024 is less than 2 years away. And come to a conference without a TV contract in hand, and with a commissioner likely to walk away.

I think it's 100% more likely WSU and OSU spend a year plus trying to get into the Big 12. They can always bail to the MWC as last as March 2024. At least they'd move to a conference with a TV contract and a commissioner.

(08-29-2022 04:03 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

And those 4 schools all wandered in the wilderness for years..In retrospect, that turned out to be a very bad decision..Those schools should have kept the SWC name and added new members from the independents that were plentiful at the time..

(08-30-2022 08:05 AM)Tmac13 Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 04:03 PM)Poster Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:14 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(08-29-2022 02:11 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  If the Big East experience is a guide, Ore St & Wash St should pick the Teams they want to be associated with. UC & USF guided the Big East/American expansion. The other schools should step back and allow those schools that will be in the conference long term to make the choices.

Yep. People who think an autonomous conference will disband while a bunch of G5 schools won't jump at the opportunity to take their most valuable, shed their least valuable, gain 2 P5 schools, and gain autonomy are in for a rude awakening.

TCU, Houston, SMU and Rice already decided to disband the SWC rather than keep a watered down conference together.


And that was when four teams were left behind. In this scenario, it would be only two teams (Oregon State and Washington State) left behind.

And those 4 schools all wandered in the wilderness for years..In retrospect, that turned out to be a very bad decision..Those schools should have kept the SWC name and added new members from the independents that were plentiful at the time..

Well, at the time, they thought they had pretty good landing spots--the WAC landed the Cotton Bowl and Conference USA assembled the Southern independents into a conference that seemed to have a lot of potential. But the WAC ended up with 16 teams and then the MWC 8 split, leaving them semi-stranded again.

Most of the independents you'd put on a list of SWC backfill prospects are your C-USA teams anyway. It's not like Houston thrived playing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Southern Miss; so I'm not sure that TCU and SMU would have fared much better in a jerry-rigged SWC than they did in WAC/CUSA.