The unofficial online home for fans of the UAB Blazers. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

This is an interesting take, attempting to systematically rank the next wave of Big Ten expansion. It appears that the B1G is going to take four more schools, possibly soon. I don't bring it so much for the B1G bit as for how the writer went about rating the attractiveness of the various candidates.

His top tier is a no brainer, and the second is pretty much so as well, although the ACC schools present obvious difficulties due to their contractual status.

In any event, I found it a well reasoned take, with the parameters used available to look at.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whe...e-numbers/

I think it’s now inevitable that the big ten takes at least 4 more. Maybe 8 more eventually. I’d see it as 4 more in the west and then add some ACC teams closer to the end of the GOR.

Just glancing through it and...RICE?
How did Rice get in on it?

(08-25-2022 02:08 PM)rook360 Wrote:  Just glancing through it and...RICE?
How did Rice get in on it?

AAU - this exercise seems to be pretty B1G (pun intended) on AAU status and overall academic rep - Rice scores well on each, AND they are in a major market. On-field performance (other than the rogue 'outlier' in a given season ) evidently isn't a big deal overall with this dissertation.

Rice was included based on market and academic profile, more or less for comparison sake. They would not be an actual candidate.

(08-25-2022 12:31 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  I think it’s now inevitable that the big ten takes at least 4 more. Maybe 8 more eventually. I’d see it as 4 more in the west and then add some ACC teams closer to the end of the GOR.

Sounds about right. Which leads to "What will the SEC do?" and how long will they cling to "We're standing pat" before fear of getting beat out of their first choices forces them to take at least four as well. We all know it's coming.

(08-25-2022 03:13 PM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  

(08-25-2022 12:31 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  I think it’s now inevitable that the big ten takes at least 4 more. Maybe 8 more eventually. I’d see it as 4 more in the west and then add some ACC teams closer to the end of the GOR.

Sounds about right. Which leads to "What will the SEC do?" and how long will they cling to "We're standing pat" before fear of getting beat out of their first choices forces them to take at least four as well. We all know it's coming.

The problem for the SEC is that the teams that have financial value resides in the ACC and the GOR is preventing teams from leaving the conference. Could they look to the Big 12 for a couple of more schools? Possibly a West Virginia or Oklahoma St could be fits and they no doubt would want to join even at a reduce tv payout. You can never say never in conference realignment.

My guess is that they'll let some years go by and then fight the ACC GOR. That looks to be an expensive fight unless ESPN ponies up some buyout money, but UNC and Clemson are high quality targets. Duke has the same problem that Kansas does. I could see them taking Ok. St.

A few years will pass and then they will bust up that GOR.

I never say never but that GOR will not be busted up in a few years or a decade from now. There is too much present evidence that points to the ACC's GOR being ironclad and rock solid. What I think will happen is ESPN will renegotiate their current deal with the ACC because it will so severely hurt those programs to a point it will be nearly impossible for them to compete and remain remotely competitive with the B1G and SEC under the current tv deal.

Although the ACC tv deal is a monetary win-win for ESPN it could negatively affect the network long term with the conference. Will ESPN risk losing ACC teams to the B1G because they have been so drastically under paid on their TV deal or will they make the ACC viable thus giving them the inside track on having two power conferences compared FOX and CBS just having the B1G? NBC will still have Notre Dame so they'll be fine.

...somebody SOMEwhere noted that ESPN threw a LOT of $$$$$ into creating the ACC Network, and are now wanting to see a return of SOME type on that venture... with that, the ACC may very well be 'locked in' for another decade or so before anything happens... unless they all agree to dissolve and appease ESPN... perhaps ESPN goes 'all-in' on the BIG XII and they can 'roll the ACC Network' into becoming the 'BIG XII Network'... or perhaps the AAC Network, even?

Or ESPN decides there isn’t a whole lot of return on investment for inventory involving Boston College, Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC State, Pitt, Virginia, Georgia Tech and decides they can make a lot more money through consolidation and inventory that matches Clemson, Florida State, Miami, UNC against the other big brands they own.

We aren’t there … yet.

But we got there with the Longhorn Network. Something to keep an eye on.