(08-05-2022 03:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC is poised to bust 80 million buy as early as 2024 or as late as 2026 depending upon when Oklahoma and Texas join.

The ACC is beginning to discuss revenue sharing.

Vanderbilt is family, but will struggle even more with NIL, Pay for Play, on Campus space for needed research expansion, and football facilities last updated in 1981.

Syracuse, Pitt and B.C. are in difficult positions with regard to realignment.

The SEC prefers not to share the SE or SW with the Big 10.

Solutions are few to the dilemmas we face.

I suggest one of these options:

1. The SEC and ACC merge and accept the following terms:

Boston College, Duke, Syracuse, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest will be all but football members or B-League Football members (explanation to follow).

The other 10 will be full football members.

This presupposes one issue which could impact Pitt. Either Pitt is taken by the B1G or Missouri and Kansas join Colorado, Utah, Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford in the Big 10.

ESPN also creates a B league SEC football conference which pays in the 30 million range. This conference includes the present B12 and will be where the non-Football members of the A league will play, if they decide to play football at all.

So, Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech and West Virginia all become B League members.

All members full A League, full B League, or simply non-football are full conference members for all else.

Add Tulane, Memphis, South Florida and Temple as non-A League Football members as well.

A League Football is shared on the SECN, B League Football on the converted ACCN and bundled giving all B League subscribers full carriage and exposure across the entire new footprint. B League Football schools have access to the upper tier CFP. They are only B League to prevent, or at least present, disparity in football revenue as an aspect which does not prevent full inclusion in anything else.

Hoops, baseball, softball, all other sports share revenue, schedules, tournaments, etc.

So, you would have a check to A League Football in the 80 million plus range.

A check to B League Football in the 30 million plus range.

A check to each for T3 subscription channels from ESPN

And a check to all for all other sports.

Notre Dame would be independent and could schedule with any of the above.


OR>>>

2. Just the 10 football A League members are added after Pitt or Missouri's fate is known.

Thoughts? I'm just looking for acceptable work arounds which disrupt as little as possible.

There will be no Merger, just an assimilation of a few ACC members. The SEC and Big will cherry pick who they want, and the rest will have to take whatever is out there to rebuild, or move on themselves. At the end of the day the AAC will have the same happen to them as did the B12 and Pac 12.

Merger isn't a good fit to describe what will happen because the organizations will *NOT* be joined at all. Hostile takeover? Reverse merger? It looks like half the (ACC-ND) will be in the SEC eventually. And some of what is left will be in the B1G. If Louisville doesn't make it to the SEC, the Big12 is also a possible landing spot for some teams. The point is ... most of the ACC won't be in the ACC. Describe that how you wish.

All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

(08-07-2022 11:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

Exactly....why would the networks want to increase their "payroll" by 50%?

(08-07-2022 11:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

Do the math!!!

3 years ago the networks and an independent group analyze a move to a 2 conference league of between 32 to 56 schools to study viability. Forty-eight hit the sweet spot for payouts and returns. A CFP of 12 to 16 schools was estimated to be worth over 3 billion. The payouts won't start at 100 million they will grow to about 110 over a decade. They'll start at over 80 million.

80 million is a rough doubling of where the ACC will be in a year or two, and little over double for PAC 12 schools and B12 schools.

If FOX added 8 to the Big 10 and ESPN added 8 to the SEC each would be spending 320 million more in an effort to capture targeted brands and key markets which are essential to making a closed system healthy and marketable. The value of just the regular seasons of such a league would NET another billion and half plus. An independent hoops tourney is another billion.

So, for a layout of 320 million each FOX and ESPN, even if they did a 50/50 split on profits with the conferences would be 5.5 plus billion minus 640 million and then split between FOX and ESPN = which is roughly 2.5 billion each then split with schools which NET's them a 1.25 billion profit on 320 million in added media payouts.

Now you tell me Mark is that an acceptable ROI?

And Mark I'm not counting the reduction of conference overhead by consolidating 5 to 3, or revenue generated by sale of conference property split between former conference members, or the ultimate network savings when lesser leagues are devalued, or the profit of baseball and softball championship tournaments.

They are selling a whole entity Mark, not individual schools or really even conferences.

(08-07-2022 11:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

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(08-07-2022 12:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-07-2022 11:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

Do the math!!!

3 years ago the networks and an independent group analyze a move to a 2 conference league of between 32 to 56 schools to study viability. Forty-eight hit the sweet spot for payouts and returns. A CFP of 12 to 16 schools was estimated to be worth over 3 billion. The payouts won't start at 100 million they will grow to about 110 over a decade. They'll start at over 80 million.

80 million is a rough doubling of where the ACC will be in a year or two, and little over double for PAC 12 schools and B12 schools.

If FOX added 8 to the Big 10 and ESPN added 8 to the SEC each would be spending 320 million more in an effort to capture targeted brands and key markets which are essential to making a closed system healthy and marketable. The value of just the regular seasons of such a league would NET another billion and half plus. An independent hoops tourney is another billion.

So, for a layout of 320 million each FOX and ESPN, even if they did a 50/50 split on profits with the conferences would be 5.5 plus billion minus 640 million and then split between FOX and ESPN = which is roughly 2.5 billion each then split with schools which NET's them a 1.25 billion profit on 320 million in added media payouts.

Now you tell me Mark is that an acceptable ROI?

And Mark I'm not counting the reduction of conference overhead by consolidating 5 to 3, or revenue generated by sale of conference property split between former conference members, or the ultimate network savings when lesser leagues are devalued, or the profit of baseball and softball championship tournaments.

They are selling a whole entity Mark, not individual schools or really even conferences.

4X ROI is GREAT, and it all looks good on paper, but none of us have seen this level of planning and cooperation in college football before, so it's just hard to believe it will actually happen. If it does, fine... for the 48 schools. What happens to the other 17 (soon to be 21) currently in the P5? Are they part of the closed system, too?

(08-07-2022 10:04 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(08-07-2022 12:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-07-2022 11:43 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  All of these fantasies are based on the assumption that the TV networks will pay for the SEC and B1G to grow to 24 teams each. I'm skeptical about more than 16...

Do the math!!!

3 years ago the networks and an independent group analyze a move to a 2 conference league of between 32 to 56 schools to study viability. Forty-eight hit the sweet spot for payouts and returns. A CFP of 12 to 16 schools was estimated to be worth over 3 billion. The payouts won't start at 100 million they will grow to about 110 over a decade. They'll start at over 80 million.

80 million is a rough doubling of where the ACC will be in a year or two, and little over double for PAC 12 schools and B12 schools.

If FOX added 8 to the Big 10 and ESPN added 8 to the SEC each would be spending 320 million more in an effort to capture targeted brands and key markets which are essential to making a closed system healthy and marketable. The value of just the regular seasons of such a league would NET another billion and half plus. An independent hoops tourney is another billion.

So, for a layout of 320 million each FOX and ESPN, even if they did a 50/50 split on profits with the conferences would be 5.5 plus billion minus 640 million and then split between FOX and ESPN = which is roughly 2.5 billion each then split with schools which NET's them a 1.25 billion profit on 320 million in added media payouts.

Now you tell me Mark is that an acceptable ROI?

And Mark I'm not counting the reduction of conference overhead by consolidating 5 to 3, or revenue generated by sale of conference property split between former conference members, or the ultimate network savings when lesser leagues are devalued, or the profit of baseball and softball championship tournaments.

They are selling a whole entity Mark, not individual schools or really even conferences.

4X ROI is GREAT, and it all looks good on paper, but none of us have seen this level of planning and cooperation in college football before, so it's just hard to believe it will actually happen. If it does, fine... for the 48 schools. What happens to the other 17 (soon to be 21) currently in the P5? Are they part of the closed system, too?

You haven't seen it because it has not been network planned and coordinated and because the P5 couldn't agree that water is wet! I expect a 3rd conference at 40 million which will make be included and which will have post season access. It will likely lose a few members over a decade and the strongest in it may one day be absorbed into the other two.

(08-06-2022 07:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-06-2022 02:22 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-05-2022 06:47 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  One thought I had involving both the SEC and ACC -- and tapping into what is seemingly super popular with the Premier League soccer in England -- is setting up Relegation between the two conferences.

I'm for that. I feel it follows naturally once an A League (Fox/B1G + ESPN/SEC) and B League (ACC/PAC/B12 survivors) both exist.

As you say, relegation increases fan interest in games that might not otherwise be huge draws. And it addresses lingering fairness/ fan interest questions, such as 'Why is Pitt on the bubble and Vandy not?'

Question for JR: That's a detailed imagining of possibilities. Have you had a chance to consider more about how the postseason might work in this arrangement? Does the B League champ get an automatic playoff spot against A League teams? Might the B League place both of its title finalists in a 12- to 16-team playoff, provided certain W-L standards are met?

Without access there is no incentive for a B League to even form. Yes it would have access of at least its champion. After that at large bids would be given on perceived strength.

The B League concept would be in play for the Big Ten as well.

Understand it would exist only for football. In each of the SEC and B1G baseball/hockey, basketball and all other sports would be shared among the larger grouping. It is a tool to allow for different football payouts to exist while all other sports affiliations are shared.

This enhances especially Big Ten baseball with West Coast schools affiliated, and their hockey with Northeastern schools included.

For the SEC it really boosts hoops and makes baseball and softball monster sports.

It is simply a way to have a much broader inclusion than the pathway others are willing to imagine where there is organization for Big Ten and SEC high dollar football and a third conference of lesser paid football survivors. And such a construct as I am proposing not only allows for football segregation by payout, which is what the networks are doing with consolidation, but it maintains a nexus for all other sports in a breakaway from the NCAA which monetizes everything more efficiently while keeping historical relationships together and not sacrificing them to simply advance football.

I struggle with guaranteeing a playoff spot to a school you have already defined as inferior and not worthy to compete against the A league.