(07-25-2022 08:50 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The situation remains fluid.

As do Sheer’s Tears.

That’s the name of the running feature for Arizona schadenfreude. That guy’s level of butthurt when things don’t go AZ’s way is legendary.

(07-24-2022 11:46 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 11:42 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 11:40 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 09:52 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 09:35 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  One of major issues right now is that ESPN offer is low and Oregon and Washington want unequal sharing. They want a certain percentage more. Numbers don’t make survival possible within the conference. Big fracture within the conference and other schools won’t budge- Jason Scheer

Link
https://twitter.com/jasonscheer/status/1..._&ref_url=

yeah, that traces back to a column that was just spitballing, about how all conferences will end up moving to unequal sharing. not what UW and UO are demanding

Actually it wouldn't surprise me a bit if Scheer is relaying factual information about Oregon and Washington asking for unequal sharing and the other schools saying no. What I'm more skeptical about is the "big fracture" comment. The core of his narrative for the past few weeks has been that Arizona wants out and so exaggerating the magnitude of the rift may just reflect his personal (and possibly even unintentional) bias.

The reality may be that an "it's just business" negotiation is unfolding, with Oregon and Washington staking out an opening position and the others pushing back. That doesn't preclude UO and UW from backing off ("oh well, we had a fiduciary duty to at least try, nothing personal guys") and everyone reaching an accommodation that keeps the conference together.

I would only conclude the Pac-12 house of cards is collapsing if Oregon and Washington are not only asking for unequal sharing but also threatening to accept Big 12 offers if they don't get it. But so far as I know not even Scheer has reported that.

Of course looking at this from a Big 12 perspective, a smart strategy would be to try to shatter Pac-12 unity by luring UO and UW into making that threat, by targeting their four initial invitations to Oregon and Washington along with Arizona and Colorado -- not Utah or Arizona State. And perhaps not coincidentally, a poster on the MWC board who claims to have an inside source says he's heard those four are in fact the Big 12's current targets.

Does the MWCboard poster have a track record?

LOL, you posted that question while I was deleting that part of my post. Yes, he has some credibility -- he was actually predicting USC's departure before the USC/UCLA news broke -- but not so much that I feel confident relaying the information. That's why I second-guessed myself and edited my comments.

That's interesting, and would make some level of sense - why double up in Utah and Arizona if you don't have to as all it does is dilute the overall payout? Problem is, I don't see any way that Arizona gets in over ASU. I know it's the flagship and has better academics but Phoenix metro has almost 5 times as many people as Tucson. Maybe if this was a "Big Ten taking over the west" scenario as was floated for awhile they'd get in being AAU, but I can't imagine an outcome where a conference like the Big 12 would pass on Phoenix if it came down to inviting one of the other.

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

We've had a lot of silence from real media the past week.

Either Pac, ACC and Big 12 stand pat, or things are imminent. When they are talking, but are in the preliminary stages is when all the leaks come out.

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

I think the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame. If ND says yes, then they take one of those 6 schools you mention. Since they haven't taken anyone else, I suspect they will stay at 18 if ND joins or wait for them at 16 if they don't.

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

(07-25-2022 12:03 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

KU or Colorado would only be selected if the Big 10 decided they didn't want another western team. Which is possible. They may want to minimize travel for the 14 and not worry about travel for the 2. KU has basketball but dismal football. CU has ok football and a bigger market. Utah has zero chance.

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

Where did you get this from? Almost every indication in this state is, what you would call the "younger generation don't care" or would like a change. A lack of success by CU since moving to the PAC in football has decimated the fan base.

The "older generation" are those who fund the program. I'll agree, most want CU to move, not as much based on old rivalries since NU is now in the B1G, more due to the fact that the move to the PAC 12 is viewed as a failure and a move to the Big 12 would provide a fresh start against some old conference mates.

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

Agree about CU, should have never left the Big 12 behind.

(07-25-2022 12:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:03 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

KU or Colorado would only be selected if the Big 10 decided they didn't want another western team. Which is possible. They may want to minimize travel for the 14 and not worry about travel for the 2. KU has basketball but dismal football. CU has ok football and a bigger market. Utah has zero chance.

I agree with that zero chance. But it’s exactly the same number of decimals after the zero as KU. KU has a better chance of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years than it has of joining the B1G.

(07-25-2022 01:08 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:03 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

KU or Colorado would only be selected if the Big 10 decided they didn't want another western team. Which is possible. They may want to minimize travel for the 14 and not worry about travel for the 2. KU has basketball but dismal football. CU has ok football and a bigger market. Utah has zero chance.

I agree with that zero chance. But it’s exactly the same number of decimals after the zero as KU. KU has a better chance of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years than it has of joining the B1G.

KU has zero chance if the Big 10 is not concerned about geography. If they want to limit western travel, KU probably has the best shot of being #18 if Notre Dame is #17.

(07-25-2022 06:14 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-24-2022 11:48 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  I hope Utah is smart and leaves for the BIG12 and get away from what I see is a sinking ship in the PAC12

There are pushed back from BYU fans that do not want Utah in the Big 12 and Utah fans keep saying they sell out their stadium.

We know Colorado, Utah and Arizona State do not want to join the Big 12. Arizona does, but Big 12 fans on the Kurtz chat said let the left coast schools stay where they are at in the PAC 12. They are way too snobbish for ACC, Big 12 and SEC. Both PAC 12 and Big 10 are snobbish on their academics.

The Big 12 fans are interested in Colorado State, Boise State and San Diego State to join, and looking at Memphis, USF and another eastern school to join for an eastern pod.

There is nothing wrong with ACC academics, it just seems too far away to send the Olympic sports for the amount of money in question.

There is nothing so wrong with SEC academics that $75M+ couldn't fix.

The coastal PAC-12 school probably are too snobbish for the Big 12, if there are any better options.

(07-25-2022 01:03 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

Agree about CU, should have never left the Big 12 behind.

Since Colorado turned their backs on the Big 12, so I think the Big 12 say to Colorado "You made your bed, now go lay down in it." Means that the Big 12 closes the doors on Colorado of ever rejoining the conference.

(07-25-2022 02:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Means that the Big 12 closes the doors on Colorado of ever rejoining the conference.

No, we'll gladly talk. Everyone here likes to roadtrip up into the Rockies while also attending an away game at CU.

(07-25-2022 02:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 01:03 PM)jacksfan29! Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

Agree about CU, should have never left the Big 12 behind.

Since Colorado turned their backs on the Big 12, so I think the Big 12 say to Colorado "You made your bed, now go lay down in it." Means that the Big 12 closes the doors on Colorado of ever rejoining the conference.

Never let personal history get in the way of good business. CU athletics would benefit from a return to the Big 12, IMO, and the Big 12 would benefit from their return and presence.

(07-25-2022 10:53 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:33 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  If I were Colorado, I'd see the writing on the wall and determine my travel and my $$$ are better off with my old buddies in the Big 12. Arizona reportedly has long been impatient -

I really don't see why the B12 wouldn't grab Utah and ASU - Utah is the fastest growing state, and ASU is in Phoenix.

The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

I think the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame. If ND says yes, then they take one of those 6 schools you mention. Since they haven't taken anyone else, I suspect they will stay at 18 if ND joins or wait for them at 16 if they don't.

Your right. ND has a standing invite which the Big Ten covets. All accounts I've read is that Stanford is their partner if ND makes the move. If the Big Ten makes a run at 20 even though they really don't have to then they invite UNC and UVA. That's 32 million people in those two states with brands that can deliver eyeballs all in the eastern time zones. Of course this is down the road, but they have all the time in the world for ACC GOR mitigation.

(07-25-2022 01:08 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:03 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 09:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  The fans are split in Colorado. The older fans wants to go back to Big 12 while the young generation that graduated from or now attending Colorado wants to stay in the PAC 12. The issue with Arizona being impatient is coming from MHVER13 and the Big 12 fans who are taking his words for it. Utah, Arizona State and Colorado wants to wait it out to see if they could get an invite to the ACC, SEC or Big 10.

The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

KU or Colorado would only be selected if the Big 10 decided they didn't want another western team. Which is possible. They may want to minimize travel for the 14 and not worry about travel for the 2. KU has basketball but dismal football. CU has ok football and a bigger market. Utah has zero chance.

I agree with that zero chance. But it’s exactly the same number of decimals after the zero as KU. KU has a better chance of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years than it has of joining the B1G.

Why do you think that Kansas, an AAU member since 1909, is in danger of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years? The Med Center alone bolsters its standing: NCI designated cancer center, recently named a comprehensive cancer center.

(07-25-2022 05:58 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 01:08 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 12:03 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(07-25-2022 10:46 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  The only schools in either conference that are possible for B1G are Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Kansas

The B1G could have made the politics of this much easier had they invited Cal and Stanford - which they did not do - meaning its not gonna happen. If they're not taking Cal and Stanford they are certainly not taking any of those other schools (and of those, Colorado and Kansas make more sense, but again not happening).

The ACC could add those west cost schools, but in doing so would open up their GOR - which would lead to poaching by the B1G and SEC. So that's not happening until 2036.

So the Pac can either sit on their hands for 10 years (like the B12 did) or someone (Col and Az) can be pro-active.

KU does have basketball. But Utah has a bigger (and faster growing) market, better football, and better academics.

KU or Colorado would only be selected if the Big 10 decided they didn't want another western team. Which is possible. They may want to minimize travel for the 14 and not worry about travel for the 2. KU has basketball but dismal football. CU has ok football and a bigger market. Utah has zero chance.

I agree with that zero chance. But it’s exactly the same number of decimals after the zero as KU. KU has a better chance of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years than it has of joining the B1G.

Why do you think that Kansas, an AAU member since 1909, is in danger of losing its AAU status in the next 3 years? The Med Center alone bolsters its standing: NCI designated cancer center, recently named a comprehensive cancer center.

I was thinking the school in danger would be Oregon. Their R&D expenditures are well below everyone else in AAU, IIRC.

Here's some simple math.

The Big 12 was hoping to get $400M with Texas and Oklahoma, as neither was willing to throw in their 3rd tier rights. For Texas that was fine, as that would have brought them around $57M with the LHN, but for OU we're talking only $45-46M with their smaller 3rd tier. Who knows maybe $450M was possible. But they left and the Big 12 lost 50% of their value. That $400-450M is now $200-225M. Throw in the 3rd tier Big 12 ESPN+ rights and maybe you're looking at a a number north of $250M. Divide by 12 schools and you get $21-22M as a realistic base value.

The Pac-12 lost 40% of it's estimated $500M with USC and UCLA leaving. That comes to $300M for 10 schools or $30M each. It appears Kliavkoff is looking to package digital content to drive that higher and has a couple suitors. So you could be looking at $35M or more per school.

Now why exactly would anyone leave the Pac-12 for the Big 12 given that knowledge? This is even before factoring in a likely $40M in exit fee penalties (assuming typical 2 years of distributions, settled for 50-60 cents on the dollar). There is math and there is new math and there is crazy.