(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:27 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  I'm a newbie at interpreting this stuff. So for GS, our chances of beating UAB has actually decreased since last week? I like that our chances of having a winning season exists

EDIT: So I think I'm seeing that the odds of us beating UAB is 28.3%. I think I got it now. Been a long day.. Also, this spreadsheet seems to be loving them some Marshall

First, good job at sticking with this, enjoying the updates.

It's hard to get a real understanding or interpretation of the data without seeing the algorithm that goes into making the data. GS made a lot of gains though given their win against a team they weren't "supposed" to win.
The biggest problem with data, as well as the best thing, is it's a straight numbers game. Team A allowed X amount of yards and gained Y amount of first downs, so N total quality goes up or down.
The human element is taken out in the probability when comparing N numbers

To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

That makes sense. That would explain why we have a slightly better chance of beating you than UAB. My human gut (although my wife disagrees that it is indeed human due to gaseous nature resembling something of a dead whale, but I digress) says I like our chances against UAB more so than Marshall by a sizable amount.

(09-13-2022 03:56 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:27 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  I'm a newbie at interpreting this stuff. So for GS, our chances of beating UAB has actually decreased since last week? I like that our chances of having a winning season exists

EDIT: So I think I'm seeing that the odds of us beating UAB is 28.3%. I think I got it now. Been a long day.. Also, this spreadsheet seems to be loving them some Marshall

First, good job at sticking with this, enjoying the updates.

It's hard to get a real understanding or interpretation of the data without seeing the algorithm that goes into making the data. GS made a lot of gains though given their win against a team they weren't "supposed" to win.
The biggest problem with data, as well as the best thing, is it's a straight numbers game. Team A allowed X amount of yards and gained Y amount of first downs, so N total quality goes up or down.
The human element is taken out in the probability when comparing N numbers

To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

That makes sense. That would explain why we have a slightly better chance of beating you than UAB. My human gut (although my wife disagrees that it is indeed human due to gaseous nature resembling something of a dead whale, but I digress) says I like our chances against UAB more so than Marshall by a sizable amount.

One thing that's [likely] not shown in data is the amount of improvement made in the off-season, and especially after the Nebraska game, yall are very much undervalued as far as the computers are concerned.
I think yall have a very good chance at taking care of business against UAB.
I'm looking forward to our meeting, I knew it'd be a good game, but it's shaping up to be a great game

(09-13-2022 04:00 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:56 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:27 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  I'm a newbie at interpreting this stuff. So for GS, our chances of beating UAB has actually decreased since last week? I like that our chances of having a winning season exists

EDIT: So I think I'm seeing that the odds of us beating UAB is 28.3%. I think I got it now. Been a long day.. Also, this spreadsheet seems to be loving them some Marshall

First, good job at sticking with this, enjoying the updates.

It's hard to get a real understanding or interpretation of the data without seeing the algorithm that goes into making the data. GS made a lot of gains though given their win against a team they weren't "supposed" to win.
The biggest problem with data, as well as the best thing, is it's a straight numbers game. Team A allowed X amount of yards and gained Y amount of first downs, so N total quality goes up or down.
The human element is taken out in the probability when comparing N numbers

To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

That makes sense. That would explain why we have a slightly better chance of beating you than UAB. My human gut (although my wife disagrees that it is indeed human due to gaseous nature resembling something of a dead whale, but I digress) says I like our chances against UAB more so than Marshall by a sizable amount.

One thing that's [likely] not shown in data is the amount of improvement made in the off-season, and especially after the Nebraska game, yall are very much undervalued as far as the computers are concerned.
I think yall have a very good chance at taking care of business against UAB.
I'm looking forward to our meeting, I knew it'd be a good game, but it's shaping up to be a great game

I'm very excited about it. The "rivalry" with you guys were mere legendary tales when I was student. Also I had no idea about the history so I'm quite stoked to see this happen. I'm really hoping the positive trend continues because I'd love for nothing more than a great game and make those legendary tales real to me.

(09-13-2022 04:04 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  I'm very excited about it. The "rivalry" with you guys were mere legendary tales when I was student. Also I had no idea about the history so I'm quite stoked to see this happen. I'm really hoping the positive trend continues because I'd love for nothing more than a great game and make those legendary tales real to me.

I was only 9 when we played last, so getting ti actually experience the game gets me pretty hyped too

(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

You sure you scrolled over to week 2? JMU made small gains, Coastal huge losses.

(09-13-2022 04:29 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

You sure you scrolled over to week 2? JMU made small gains, Coastal huge losses.

Yes. Yes I did.
TBH I hadn't checked Coastals week 1s. Ans I assumed the dropped after struggling early last week

I assumed they would take losses but almost a was green

(09-13-2022 04:00 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:56 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:50 PM)HerdFanGuest Wrote:  

(09-13-2022 03:27 PM)stingingeagle Wrote:  I'm a newbie at interpreting this stuff. So for GS, our chances of beating UAB has actually decreased since last week? I like that our chances of having a winning season exists

EDIT: So I think I'm seeing that the odds of us beating UAB is 28.3%. I think I got it now. Been a long day.. Also, this spreadsheet seems to be loving them some Marshall

First, good job at sticking with this, enjoying the updates.

It's hard to get a real understanding or interpretation of the data without seeing the algorithm that goes into making the data. GS made a lot of gains though given their win against a team they weren't "supposed" to win.
The biggest problem with data, as well as the best thing, is it's a straight numbers game. Team A allowed X amount of yards and gained Y amount of first downs, so N total quality goes up or down.
The human element is taken out in the probability when comparing N numbers

To note, JMU as well as Coastal (who I thought had a rough weekend) also made big gains along with Marshall.

That makes sense. That would explain why we have a slightly better chance of beating you than UAB. My human gut (although my wife disagrees that it is indeed human due to gaseous nature resembling something of a dead whale, but I digress) says I like our chances against UAB more so than Marshall by a sizable amount.

One thing that's [likely] not shown in data is the amount of improvement made in the off-season, and especially after the Nebraska game, yall are very much undervalued as far as the computers are concerned.
I think yall have a very good chance at taking care of business against UAB.
I'm looking forward to our meeting, I knew it'd be a good game, but it's shaping up to be a great game

I agree with this. Vegas is in the same boat as well. There's money to be made by betting on GS lines this year.