Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

(07-15-2022 11:20 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 10:28 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 05:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 01:34 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  This is why it is wrong to assume the mountain 4 schools can afford to wait or pass on Big 12 offer.

In a P2 setup, getting a 3rd “super conference” is best for all leftovers that make the cut into it. Getting exclusivity on the auto berths to CFP is the only way to have any notion the leftovers are closer to P2 than they are G5. And that P3 needs to happen in a step change. The P5 brand of rump conferences will wear off quickly in the P2 era.


So which conference is the base of the 3rd?

Pac is very unlikely given the risk 1-4 of its remaining members could go BIG and the fact the GOR is up next

Big 12 still has 3 more years on GOR and exit fees after that. And are centrally located, with maybe 1 school that could go to P2 if they go past 20 each. More leverage in regards to leftover vs leftover realignment, while also more revenue maximizing in terms of the permutations. In a free market the Big 12 becomes the base of the 3 imo

But ACC has ESPN. With ESPN effectively already having a long position on that conference being the 3.Or st least the leftovers of the ACC being the base of the 3.

There are 14 ACC schools. ESPN could really only add 10 now. Do all 4 mountain schools make that cut? Remember, KU, Baylor, Cincinnati, WVU, Ok St, Baylor, TCU, and even Houston will be in the running for ESPN to move to ACC if that’s the 3rd. Even if several from Pac and ACC eventually go to P2, all mountain 4 may not make the cut, AND they passed on having a western/central P3 in favor of one built on ACC leftovers like Wake, BC, Cuse etc

I like the way you lay this out, but differ regarding the last paragraph.

If the "3rd P" ends up, due to ESPN, being based on the 14 ACC schools, and it comes down to 10 schools being chosen from the nB12 and nPAC, I would rank-order them in value something like ....

1) Oregon
2) Washington
3) Stanford
4) Arizona State
5) Oklahoma State
6) Cal
7) Kansas
8) Arizona
9) WV
10) Utah

IOWs, about seven of the ten would come from the nPAC. Only about three would be from the current nB12, and one of those, WV, is really a B12 "outsider", not part of the core mid/southwestern group.

So IMO, the nB12's long run chance of survival really depends on there being a "P4", the SEC, B1G, ACC and a nB12 that absorbs teams from the PAC.

Even if the nB12 absorbs teams from the PAC now, if consolidation to three comes later, then most "Big 12" schools get left behind.

That's because the nB12's strength here is also its weakness - as a unit, it has strength in its stability. But, that stability is "MAC stability", the stability of no schools being wanted by better conferences. So once cherry-picking occurs to form a "third P", IMO most nB12 schools will be in jeopardy.

IOWs, IMO the nB12 is in the strange, arguably paradoxical, position of being stronger than the sum of its parts. So it needs - in the sense of ensuring the safety of all its members - to serve as the "base" of the 3rd P. If another conference is the base, or if there is no base but rather a 3rd P is formed out of the best of the ACC/nPAC/nB12, IMO it suffers the most, has the most schools left out.

Again, we're all just waiting to see.

I think that could be a P2's list, or at least close-ish. You're basically going with popular school names.

Leftover/P3 shopping is different imo. Peer groups and popular schools less important than adding value. Football value, if not monetarily speaking. And remember- ESPN is trying to appease the football ACC, aka, make them as close to P2 money as possible while also improving performance.

Getting the ACCN in Texas will be high on the list. Baylor does well in ratings, is self-funded in pay-to-play/NIL era, and gets them into Texas. Same with TCU, although less of a ratings pull. Houston has proven to do more with less, gets them into a huge Texas market. At least two of those would be included for ACCN benefits alone. But all are better additions than adding Cal if you already have Stanford imo

Cincinnati has additive value with old Big East rivals, and even without that, draws well when playing P5. Not good if you're bottom half of PAC. They have won with about every coach regardless of conference or budget recently. Gets ACC a hold with Louisville-Cincy-Pitt-WVU-VT corridor.

CU and a redundant AZ would not make the cut imo. ASU iffy. Particularly when you price in the fact Big 12 dissolution would need to occur to lubricate things and get OUT for free, so ESPN would lean heavy on Big 12 schools to ACC. One could easily see 3 mountain PAC schools left out, at least until the Super ACC then lost PAC and legacy ACC schools to P2.

You are right about Cincy and Texas schools. I believe the following ten schools are the ones the ACC / the ESPN would consider.

Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Oklahoma State

Could be. I don’t see an ACC looking to close gap with P2 chasing Cal or CU, over two football brands that pull well like Utah or Baylor, but that’s being pedantic.

I think the point is that there is risk for many schools in the Pac and Big 12 if it’s an ACC P3, and because of this, getting to a Big 18 or Big 20 is more likely than just the measuring contests fans like to suggest. The business case is you don’t care about what the conference is called, you take an offer that sufficiently offloads risk, budget risk and risk of being out of the eventual P3.

A Big 20 does that for 20/22 schools currently easily able to make moves, and in the least cost, least risk direction. Call it the Pac if it gets over the Frank Fan syndrome. But it’s a better chance of being in the P3 than going all-in on the ACC having room

(07-15-2022 11:25 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

Are the networks working together, or are they competing?

The bigger the P2, the smaller the 3rd should be (or heaven forbid the top leftovers think 2 middle class conferences is better)

2x24 and a 1x20 is my preference

2x20 and a 1x24 may be more likely.

Just please no 2x20 plus 2x14

(07-15-2022 11:48 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:25 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

Are the networks working together, or are they competing?

The bigger the P2, the smaller the 3rd should be (or heaven forbid the top leftovers think 2 middle class conferences is better)

2x24 and a 1x20 is my preference

2x20 and a 1x24 may be more likely.

Just please no 2x20 plus 2x14

Who are you squeezing out in your third conference?

(07-15-2022 11:48 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:25 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

Are the networks working together, or are they competing?

The bigger the P2, the smaller the 3rd should be (or heaven forbid the top leftovers think 2 middle class conferences is better)

2x24 and a 1x20 is my preference

2x20 and a 1x24 may be more likely.

Just please no 2x20 plus 2x14

Idk if the networks will work together, that's something for Frank to try and answer.

(07-16-2022 12:00 AM)Alanda Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:48 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:25 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

Are the networks working together, or are they competing?

The bigger the P2, the smaller the 3rd should be (or heaven forbid the top leftovers think 2 middle class conferences is better)

2x24 and a 1x20 is my preference

2x20 and a 1x24 may be more likely.

Just please no 2x20 plus 2x14

Who are you squeezing out in your third conference?

We’re watching that pillow fight now.

It would help if we knew which were P2 bound next- but since we don’t, I think you price in the flight risk, which erodes Oregon St, and WSU chances. Pac is nearly neutered in ability to attract schools because of it.

ACC bottom is protected by ESPN right now, but otherwise I don’t know how you can see things like that Pitt-Wake game and feel good about the bottom of the ACC. If 24, I think I’d leave out Oregon St, WSU, Wake, and BC. In a P2 era, I’d bet on these schools like UCF or Houston out-performing many P5s that no longer have an advantage. Could see some movement in that regard as even in a P3 setup, some of these ex-P5s will struggle with the more-with-less model

Up until this round of realignment, the only school that had recently *entered* the P5 was Utah. In contrast, a few schools were ejected from the P5 (UConn, Temple, USF, Cincinnati). I suspect that this trend will continue. It is in the interest of TV execs to pay top dollar to the teams that bring eyeballs without "subsidizing" those that do not.

Currently, there are 64 P5 teams + 1 Notre Dame. Some of the models presented represent a net *increase* in the number of power teams. 2x24 and 1x20 represents more power teams than there was last year.

The end game is the current B1G and SEC with some subset of Washington, Oregon, Kansas, UNC, UVA, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Stanford, Cal, Utah, and Notre Dame partitioned between them. No one else will be in a "power" conference.

that's how i think its end up
2 [20's] SEC: NC, Va, Clemson, FSU. B-10: ND, Stanford, Wash, Org

1 [24] B-12 plus Cal, Utah, Colo, ASU, Ariz, memphis, Mia, GT, NCST, VT, Louv, Pitt

2 [12's]

(07-16-2022 12:27 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  Up until this round of realignment, the only school that had recently *entered* the P5 was Utah. In contrast, a few schools were ejected from the P5 (UConn, Temple, USF, Cincinnati). I suspect that this trend will continue. It is in the interest of TV execs to pay top dollar to the teams that bring eyeballs without "subsidizing" those that do not.

Currently, there are 64 P5 teams + 1 Notre Dame. Some of the models presented represent a net *increase* in the number of power teams. 2x24 and 1x20 represents more power teams than there was last year.

The end game is the current B1G and SEC with some subset of Washington, Oregon, Kansas, UNC, UVA, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Stanford, Cal, Utah, and Notre Dame partitioned between them. No one else will be in a "power" conference.

TCU was added.

I’d say UL, but that’s technical

(07-15-2022 10:28 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 05:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 01:34 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  This is why it is wrong to assume the mountain 4 schools can afford to wait or pass on Big 12 offer.

In a P2 setup, getting a 3rd “super conference” is best for all leftovers that make the cut into it. Getting exclusivity on the auto berths to CFP is the only way to have any notion the leftovers are closer to P2 than they are G5. And that P3 needs to happen in a step change. The P5 brand of rump conferences will wear off quickly in the P2 era.


So which conference is the base of the 3rd?

Pac is very unlikely given the risk 1-4 of its remaining members could go BIG and the fact the GOR is up next

Big 12 still has 3 more years on GOR and exit fees after that. And are centrally located, with maybe 1 school that could go to P2 if they go past 20 each. More leverage in regards to leftover vs leftover realignment, while also more revenue maximizing in terms of the permutations. In a free market the Big 12 becomes the base of the 3 imo

But ACC has ESPN. With ESPN effectively already having a long position on that conference being the 3.Or st least the leftovers of the ACC being the base of the 3.

There are 14 ACC schools. ESPN could really only add 10 now. Do all 4 mountain schools make that cut? Remember, KU, Baylor, Cincinnati, WVU, Ok St, Baylor, TCU, and even Houston will be in the running for ESPN to move to ACC if that’s the 3rd. Even if several from Pac and ACC eventually go to P2, all mountain 4 may not make the cut, AND they passed on having a western/central P3 in favor of one built on ACC leftovers like Wake, BC, Cuse etc

I like the way you lay this out, but differ regarding the last paragraph.

If the "3rd P" ends up, due to ESPN, being based on the 14 ACC schools, and it comes down to 10 schools being chosen from the nB12 and nPAC, I would rank-order them in value something like ....

1) Oregon
2) Washington
3) Stanford
4) Arizona State
5) Oklahoma State
6) Cal
7) Kansas
8) Arizona
9) WV
10) Utah

IOWs, about seven of the ten would come from the nPAC. Only about three would be from the current nB12, and one of those, WV, is really a B12 "outsider", not part of the core mid/southwestern group.

So IMO, the nB12's long run chance of survival really depends on there being a "P4", the SEC, B1G, ACC and a nB12 that absorbs teams from the PAC.

Even if the nB12 absorbs teams from the PAC now, if consolidation to three comes later, then most "Big 12" schools get left behind.

That's because the nB12's strength here is also its weakness - as a unit, it has strength in its stability. But, that stability is "MAC stability", the stability of no schools being wanted by better conferences. So once cherry-picking occurs to form a "third P", IMO most nB12 schools will be in jeopardy.

IOWs, IMO the nB12 is in the strange, arguably paradoxical, position of being stronger than the sum of its parts. So it needs - in the sense of ensuring the safety of all its members - to serve as the "base" of the 3rd P. If another conference is the base, or if there is no base but rather a 3rd P is formed out of the best of the ACC/nPAC/nB12, IMO it suffers the most, has the most schools left out.

Again, we're all just waiting to see.

I think that could be a P2's list, or at least close-ish. You're basically going with popular school names.

Leftover/P3 shopping is different imo. Peer groups and popular schools less important than adding value. Football value, if not monetarily speaking. And remember- ESPN is trying to appease the football ACC, aka, make them as close to P2 money as possible while also improving performance.

Getting the ACCN in Texas will be high on the list. Baylor does well in ratings, is self-funded in pay-to-play/NIL era, and gets them into Texas. Same with TCU, although less of a ratings pull. Houston has proven to do more with less, gets them into a huge Texas market. At least two of those would be included for ACCN benefits alone. But all are better additions than adding Cal if you already have Stanford imo

Cincinnati has additive value with old Big East rivals, and even without that, draws well when playing P5. Not good if you're bottom half of PAC. They have won with about every coach regardless of conference or budget recently. Gets ACC a hold with Louisville-Cincy-Pitt-WVU-VT corridor.

CU and a redundant AZ would not make the cut imo. ASU iffy. Particularly when you price in the fact Big 12 dissolution would need to occur to lubricate things and get OUT for free, so ESPN would lean heavy on Big 12 schools to ACC. One could easily see 3 mountain PAC schools left out, at least until the Super ACC then lost PAC and legacy ACC schools to P2.

Obviously we differ significantly about this. After reading your post, I agree that ESPN would want a Texas presence in the "3rd P". I would therefore think that Baylor is likely to get included in the "group of 10", as unlike Houston and TCU, it has appeal throughout the state. It is IMO the only school other than Texas and Texas AM in the state that has a "pan-Texas" appeal. Who they replace on my list I do not know.

I do not get the appeal of Cincinnati making a top 10. They were in a G5 league and stuck there until the nB12 needed to expand. Yes, they have had great recent football success, but football success for a school like them is just the quality of their head coach, who can go at any time. It IMO has no institutional roots so I would not bank on that.

Anyway, just MO. I do think the nB12 is the most vulnerable to lose members. To me, most of them simply lack brand-value. When I say I think Cal and Arizona is a better school for inclusion than TCU or Houston, it's because I think Cal and Arizona are state flagships with more national TV appeal than TCU or Houston or UCF or Kansas State, etc. I agree it is about adding value, not popularity, though IMO popularity and value are closely correlated. We just seem to differ on what value means, or else on who has it. IMO, the nB12 schools tend to lack value, in the sense of what I call "brand recognition". Which IMO ultimately attracts TV sets.

Of course, I've been wrong before. We will see.

By “Endgame” I meant setting themselves up for the next decade of college sports. Some of you talking about “3x24” and all that are looking a decade further. MAYBE the ACC dissolves it’s GOR in the next year or two, but I don’t think so.

Also, I throw a LOT of fantastical threads onto this board. This one has enjoyed the highest ratio of “something like that seems likely” feedback. Sounds like we all have popcorn in hand for when the Big Ten closes their TV deal.

(07-15-2022 11:42 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:20 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 10:28 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 05:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 01:34 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  This is why it is wrong to assume the mountain 4 schools can afford to wait or pass on Big 12 offer.

In a P2 setup, getting a 3rd “super conference” is best for all leftovers that make the cut into it. Getting exclusivity on the auto berths to CFP is the only way to have any notion the leftovers are closer to P2 than they are G5. And that P3 needs to happen in a step change. The P5 brand of rump conferences will wear off quickly in the P2 era.


So which conference is the base of the 3rd?

Pac is very unlikely given the risk 1-4 of its remaining members could go BIG and the fact the GOR is up next

Big 12 still has 3 more years on GOR and exit fees after that. And are centrally located, with maybe 1 school that could go to P2 if they go past 20 each. More leverage in regards to leftover vs leftover realignment, while also more revenue maximizing in terms of the permutations. In a free market the Big 12 becomes the base of the 3 imo

But ACC has ESPN. With ESPN effectively already having a long position on that conference being the 3.Or st least the leftovers of the ACC being the base of the 3.

There are 14 ACC schools. ESPN could really only add 10 now. Do all 4 mountain schools make that cut? Remember, KU, Baylor, Cincinnati, WVU, Ok St, Baylor, TCU, and even Houston will be in the running for ESPN to move to ACC if that’s the 3rd. Even if several from Pac and ACC eventually go to P2, all mountain 4 may not make the cut, AND they passed on having a western/central P3 in favor of one built on ACC leftovers like Wake, BC, Cuse etc

I like the way you lay this out, but differ regarding the last paragraph.

If the "3rd P" ends up, due to ESPN, being based on the 14 ACC schools, and it comes down to 10 schools being chosen from the nB12 and nPAC, I would rank-order them in value something like ....

1) Oregon
2) Washington
3) Stanford
4) Arizona State
5) Oklahoma State
6) Cal
7) Kansas
8) Arizona
9) WV
10) Utah

IOWs, about seven of the ten would come from the nPAC. Only about three would be from the current nB12, and one of those, WV, is really a B12 "outsider", not part of the core mid/southwestern group.

So IMO, the nB12's long run chance of survival really depends on there being a "P4", the SEC, B1G, ACC and a nB12 that absorbs teams from the PAC.

Even if the nB12 absorbs teams from the PAC now, if consolidation to three comes later, then most "Big 12" schools get left behind.

That's because the nB12's strength here is also its weakness - as a unit, it has strength in its stability. But, that stability is "MAC stability", the stability of no schools being wanted by better conferences. So once cherry-picking occurs to form a "third P", IMO most nB12 schools will be in jeopardy.

IOWs, IMO the nB12 is in the strange, arguably paradoxical, position of being stronger than the sum of its parts. So it needs - in the sense of ensuring the safety of all its members - to serve as the "base" of the 3rd P. If another conference is the base, or if there is no base but rather a 3rd P is formed out of the best of the ACC/nPAC/nB12, IMO it suffers the most, has the most schools left out.

Again, we're all just waiting to see.

I think that could be a P2's list, or at least close-ish. You're basically going with popular school names.

Leftover/P3 shopping is different imo. Peer groups and popular schools less important than adding value. Football value, if not monetarily speaking. And remember- ESPN is trying to appease the football ACC, aka, make them as close to P2 money as possible while also improving performance.

Getting the ACCN in Texas will be high on the list. Baylor does well in ratings, is self-funded in pay-to-play/NIL era, and gets them into Texas. Same with TCU, although less of a ratings pull. Houston has proven to do more with less, gets them into a huge Texas market. At least two of those would be included for ACCN benefits alone. But all are better additions than adding Cal if you already have Stanford imo

Cincinnati has additive value with old Big East rivals, and even without that, draws well when playing P5. Not good if you're bottom half of PAC. They have won with about every coach regardless of conference or budget recently. Gets ACC a hold with Louisville-Cincy-Pitt-WVU-VT corridor.

CU and a redundant AZ would not make the cut imo. ASU iffy. Particularly when you price in the fact Big 12 dissolution would need to occur to lubricate things and get OUT for free, so ESPN would lean heavy on Big 12 schools to ACC. One could easily see 3 mountain PAC schools left out, at least until the Super ACC then lost PAC and legacy ACC schools to P2.

You are right about Cincy and Texas schools. I believe the following ten schools are the ones the ACC / the ESPN would consider.

Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Oklahoma State

Could be. I don’t see an ACC looking to close gap with P2 chasing Cal or CU, over two football brands that pull well like Utah or Baylor, but that’s being pedantic.

I think the point is that there is risk for many schools in the Pac and Big 12 if it’s an ACC P3, and because of this, getting to a Big 18 or Big 20 is more likely than just the measuring contests fans like to suggest. The business case is you don’t care about what the conference is called, you take an offer that sufficiently offloads risk, budget risk and risk of being out of the eventual P3.

A Big 20 does that for 20/22 schools currently easily able to make moves, and in the least cost, least risk direction. Call it the Pac if it gets over the Frank Fan syndrome. But it’s a better chance of being in the P3 than going all-in on the ACC having room

About the bolded - a prior post you made make me think it might be inevitable that a future "P3" might be based on the ACC, because of ESPN's long-term (2036) investment in the ACC.

That's because I'm not sure a "Big 20" or "PAC 20" - I agree with you, labels don't matter - is more valuable or attractive then the current ACC. The problem, IMO, is a lot of dead weight on the bottom of such a conference. Too much to make it clear-cut better than the ACC for #3.

Now, if we could take say the 14 or 16 best of those two - say all of the PAC schools save for Washington State and Oregon State - and combine them with the eight best nB12 schools - say Kansas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech - then yes, that might be better than the ACC as a value proposition, and edge it out for a "3rd place" position.

So the paradox here is that we have the PAC trying to "remain whole" or maybe attract the cream of the nB12, and the nB12 is trying to remain whole and attract the cream of the nPAC, when IMO neither will serve to create a true P3. That requires IMO off-loading the least-valuable members of each conference, and a *conference* can't do that, it has to look out for everyone, only individual schools can.

So maybe what should be happening is groups of the most valuable nPAC and nB12 schools should be talking to each other about breaking away?

But even then, it will IMO be close in terms of how this "B12/P12 All State Conference" compares to the ACC, which means we would have a P4 more than a P3. Or really, a P2 and a QP2 (quasi-P2). To get to a true P3, we would need to combine the best of the ACC, nB12 and nPAC. And that might just not be possible, given the protections the bottom of the ACC have via their GOR. At least not until 2036, which is IMO too far out to say anything about. We may all be part of a Greater Chinese People's Republic by then, or something.

If the conferences were going to work together, which they won't. The fix is pretty easy. You move the 3 AAC now new B12 schools, and WV from B12 to ACC. ACC now has 18 with a bit of a touch of TX. The remaining 18 in PAC and B12 merge. Instant power 4 ND stays put as inde and ACC.

None of the above will happen. Most likely sometime in the not-too-distant future FSU, UM, maybe Clemson and NC will end up in SEC or BIG. B12 and Pac 12 will settle their food fight and all will move forward.

What the acc/espn should do right now:

Step 1 : add 8 pac 12 schools, no WSU or OSU

Step 2 : add 4 big 12 schools, WVU, KU, X, X

X = Texas school, Cincinnati or BYU

Step 3 : create 3 divisions of 9 that run as stand alone conferences

Step 4 : ND plays 6 ACC games (Miami, BC and Stanford every year + 3)

Step 5: 2 highest rated division winners meet in title game, location TBD

(07-15-2022 02:50 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  It seems just about everybody on the board feels that when the smoke clears, there will be either three or four all-sports leagues of note. Nobody seems to expect the number to be five (as is currently the case with the P5).

There will be a P2 which is part of an A4.

I think when the P2 has 16 teams, the Pac can't stay long term at only 10. Its why the Big 12 was trying so hard to get mathematically correct again. They were 10 vs. 14/14/14.5 and 12.

I don't see Notre Dame avoiding the Big 10 past the expiration of the ACC GOR. While I think most likely they sit tight now, I still wouldn't be surprised to see them move this year. SEC probably peels off two prime ACC schools at the end of the GOR. So you've got 36 in the P2 and 33 others, who will realign into two leagues. I don't see many, if any, golden tickets to the G5 this year.

That is all assuming nobody drops out of the big time. Its not inconceivable a number of the A5 privates decide they don't want to play professional football and focus on basketball.

(07-16-2022 12:27 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  Up until this round of realignment, the only school that had recently *entered* the P5 was Utah. In contrast, a few schools were ejected from the P5 (UConn, Temple, USF, Cincinnati). I suspect that this trend will continue. It is in the interest of TV execs to pay top dollar to the teams that bring eyeballs without "subsidizing" those that do not.

Currently, there are 64 P5 teams + 1 Notre Dame. Some of the models presented represent a net *increase* in the number of power teams. 2x24 and 1x20 represents more power teams than there was last year.

The end game is the current B1G and SEC with some subset of Washington, Oregon, Kansas, UNC, UVA, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Stanford, Cal, Utah, and Notre Dame partitioned between them. No one else will be in a "power" conference.

Louisville was added.

Power group has been pretty consistent. Just trading at the edges. Of teams that were in a power conference in 1991, only Rice, Temple and SMU are not going to be in 2023. TCU and UH got dumped and returned. Cincinnati got added, dumped and returned. Utah and Louisville got added. UCF will soon be added. BYU will become officially a power team. USF is the one who got added who got dumped and not picked back up.

(07-16-2022 06:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 10:28 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 05:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 01:34 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  This is why it is wrong to assume the mountain 4 schools can afford to wait or pass on Big 12 offer.

In a P2 setup, getting a 3rd “super conference” is best for all leftovers that make the cut into it. Getting exclusivity on the auto berths to CFP is the only way to have any notion the leftovers are closer to P2 than they are G5. And that P3 needs to happen in a step change. The P5 brand of rump conferences will wear off quickly in the P2 era.


So which conference is the base of the 3rd?

Pac is very unlikely given the risk 1-4 of its remaining members could go BIG and the fact the GOR is up next

Big 12 still has 3 more years on GOR and exit fees after that. And are centrally located, with maybe 1 school that could go to P2 if they go past 20 each. More leverage in regards to leftover vs leftover realignment, while also more revenue maximizing in terms of the permutations. In a free market the Big 12 becomes the base of the 3 imo

But ACC has ESPN. With ESPN effectively already having a long position on that conference being the 3.Or st least the leftovers of the ACC being the base of the 3.

There are 14 ACC schools. ESPN could really only add 10 now. Do all 4 mountain schools make that cut? Remember, KU, Baylor, Cincinnati, WVU, Ok St, Baylor, TCU, and even Houston will be in the running for ESPN to move to ACC if that’s the 3rd. Even if several from Pac and ACC eventually go to P2, all mountain 4 may not make the cut, AND they passed on having a western/central P3 in favor of one built on ACC leftovers like Wake, BC, Cuse etc

I like the way you lay this out, but differ regarding the last paragraph.

If the "3rd P" ends up, due to ESPN, being based on the 14 ACC schools, and it comes down to 10 schools being chosen from the nB12 and nPAC, I would rank-order them in value something like ....

1) Oregon
2) Washington
3) Stanford
4) Arizona State
5) Oklahoma State
6) Cal
7) Kansas
8) Arizona
9) WV
10) Utah

IOWs, about seven of the ten would come from the nPAC. Only about three would be from the current nB12, and one of those, WV, is really a B12 "outsider", not part of the core mid/southwestern group.

So IMO, the nB12's long run chance of survival really depends on there being a "P4", the SEC, B1G, ACC and a nB12 that absorbs teams from the PAC.

Even if the nB12 absorbs teams from the PAC now, if consolidation to three comes later, then most "Big 12" schools get left behind.

That's because the nB12's strength here is also its weakness - as a unit, it has strength in its stability. But, that stability is "MAC stability", the stability of no schools being wanted by better conferences. So once cherry-picking occurs to form a "third P", IMO most nB12 schools will be in jeopardy.

IOWs, IMO the nB12 is in the strange, arguably paradoxical, position of being stronger than the sum of its parts. So it needs - in the sense of ensuring the safety of all its members - to serve as the "base" of the 3rd P. If another conference is the base, or if there is no base but rather a 3rd P is formed out of the best of the ACC/nPAC/nB12, IMO it suffers the most, has the most schools left out.

Again, we're all just waiting to see.

I think that could be a P2's list, or at least close-ish. You're basically going with popular school names.

Leftover/P3 shopping is different imo. Peer groups and popular schools less important than adding value. Football value, if not monetarily speaking. And remember- ESPN is trying to appease the football ACC, aka, make them as close to P2 money as possible while also improving performance.

Getting the ACCN in Texas will be high on the list. Baylor does well in ratings, is self-funded in pay-to-play/NIL era, and gets them into Texas. Same with TCU, although less of a ratings pull. Houston has proven to do more with less, gets them into a huge Texas market. At least two of those would be included for ACCN benefits alone. But all are better additions than adding Cal if you already have Stanford imo

Cincinnati has additive value with old Big East rivals, and even without that, draws well when playing P5. Not good if you're bottom half of PAC. They have won with about every coach regardless of conference or budget recently. Gets ACC a hold with Louisville-Cincy-Pitt-WVU-VT corridor.

CU and a redundant AZ would not make the cut imo. ASU iffy. Particularly when you price in the fact Big 12 dissolution would need to occur to lubricate things and get OUT for free, so ESPN would lean heavy on Big 12 schools to ACC. One could easily see 3 mountain PAC schools left out, at least until the Super ACC then lost PAC and legacy ACC schools to P2.

Obviously we differ significantly about this. After reading your post, I agree that ESPN would want a Texas presence in the "3rd P". I would therefore think that Baylor is likely to get included in the "group of 10", as unlike Houston and TCU, it has appeal throughout the state. It is IMO the only school other than Texas and Texas AM in the state that has a "pan-Texas" appeal. Who they replace on my list I do not know.

I do not get the appeal of Cincinnati making a top 10. They were in a G5 league and stuck there until the nB12 needed to expand. Yes, they have had great recent football success, but football success for a school like them is just the quality of their head coach, who can go at any time. It IMO has no institutional roots so I would not bank on that.

Anyway, just MO. I do think the nB12 is the most vulnerable to lose members. To me, most of them simply lack brand-value. When I say I think Cal and Arizona is a better school for inclusion than TCU or Houston, it's because I think Cal and Arizona are state flagships with more national TV appeal than TCU or Houston or UCF or Kansas State, etc. I agree it is about adding value, not popularity, though IMO popularity and value are closely correlated. We just seem to differ on what value means, or else on who has it. IMO, the nB12 schools tend to lack value, in the sense of what I call "brand recognition". Which IMO ultimately attracts TV sets.

Of course, I've been wrong before. We will see.

You may or may not be wrong about who gets left at the alter but you are wrong about national TV appeal. The Pac schools are at the bottom despite their name recognition. No matter how much you believe it, your belief is detached from reality.

TCU, Baylor, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Iowa St., UCF, Cincinnati, have all spent time in the top 10 in the last decade. Cal hasn't sniffed it since 2004. Not sure when Arizona was last there. And those schools have a time zone handicap.

(07-15-2022 11:25 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Is the end game 3x24, 3x20 or 4x18? That's the question. I think you'd leave out too good of schools at 2x24 since you can't swap out the bottoms of the B1G and SEC

My gut thinks it will either be 3X20 (total 60) or 2X24 (total 48)

I think the SEC and the B1G are hoping for a 12 team playoff where they get between them a total of at least 10 spots so they might favor the 3X20 with the third a Lesser Conference getting a spot, but not a bye (with perhaps Indy ND -if still Indy - the other spot - if good enough a bye in the first round, if not still in).

And I think several schools will likely have to rethink their commitments to top level football, with possibly a few exceptions made for basketball schools like Duke, Kansas, and perhaps even the team I root for Syracuse.

Assuming the 3X20 (with ND still Indy) my best guess is that the B1G takes Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Kansas to get to 20. With ND joining it would be interesting to see who loses out. Maybe Kansas.

For the SEC it will likely be FSU, Clemson, UNC, and possibly UVA to get to 20. Although if Kansas is available I think they might be the better option to UVA down the road for when the Power 2 have their own basketball tournament.

And the Lesser conference will likely be the best of the ACC/B12 remaining.



Cheers,
Neil

All these TV analyses have imperfections, but the when you take 5 years as that one writer did, it definitely indicates something. And Oklahoma St. and TCU had better average ratings than every Pac 12 school not named USC. Houston, playing in the AAC, had better ratings than 5 ACC and 3 Pac 12 schools. UH had better ratings than 4 Big 10 schools and 3 SEC schools as well. BYU had better ratings than half the ACC and 4 of the Pac 12.

Little TCU beat Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois and Rutgers from the Big 10 in TV ratings, 6 of those being massive elite academic institutions. Oklahoma St. did even better.

(07-16-2022 06:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:42 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 11:20 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 10:28 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-15-2022 05:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I like the way you lay this out, but differ regarding the last paragraph.

If the "3rd P" ends up, due to ESPN, being based on the 14 ACC schools, and it comes down to 10 schools being chosen from the nB12 and nPAC, I would rank-order them in value something like ....

1) Oregon
2) Washington
3) Stanford
4) Arizona State
5) Oklahoma State
6) Cal
7) Kansas
8) Arizona
9) WV
10) Utah

IOWs, about seven of the ten would come from the nPAC. Only about three would be from the current nB12, and one of those, WV, is really a B12 "outsider", not part of the core mid/southwestern group.

So IMO, the nB12's long run chance of survival really depends on there being a "P4", the SEC, B1G, ACC and a nB12 that absorbs teams from the PAC.

Even if the nB12 absorbs teams from the PAC now, if consolidation to three comes later, then most "Big 12" schools get left behind.

That's because the nB12's strength here is also its weakness - as a unit, it has strength in its stability. But, that stability is "MAC stability", the stability of no schools being wanted by better conferences. So once cherry-picking occurs to form a "third P", IMO most nB12 schools will be in jeopardy.

IOWs, IMO the nB12 is in the strange, arguably paradoxical, position of being stronger than the sum of its parts. So it needs - in the sense of ensuring the safety of all its members - to serve as the "base" of the 3rd P. If another conference is the base, or if there is no base but rather a 3rd P is formed out of the best of the ACC/nPAC/nB12, IMO it suffers the most, has the most schools left out.

Again, we're all just waiting to see.

I think that could be a P2's list, or at least close-ish. You're basically going with popular school names.

Leftover/P3 shopping is different imo. Peer groups and popular schools less important than adding value. Football value, if not monetarily speaking. And remember- ESPN is trying to appease the football ACC, aka, make them as close to P2 money as possible while also improving performance.

Getting the ACCN in Texas will be high on the list. Baylor does well in ratings, is self-funded in pay-to-play/NIL era, and gets them into Texas. Same with TCU, although less of a ratings pull. Houston has proven to do more with less, gets them into a huge Texas market. At least two of those would be included for ACCN benefits alone. But all are better additions than adding Cal if you already have Stanford imo

Cincinnati has additive value with old Big East rivals, and even without that, draws well when playing P5. Not good if you're bottom half of PAC. They have won with about every coach regardless of conference or budget recently. Gets ACC a hold with Louisville-Cincy-Pitt-WVU-VT corridor.

CU and a redundant AZ would not make the cut imo. ASU iffy. Particularly when you price in the fact Big 12 dissolution would need to occur to lubricate things and get OUT for free, so ESPN would lean heavy on Big 12 schools to ACC. One could easily see 3 mountain PAC schools left out, at least until the Super ACC then lost PAC and legacy ACC schools to P2.

You are right about Cincy and Texas schools. I believe the following ten schools are the ones the ACC / the ESPN would consider.

Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Oklahoma State

Could be. I don’t see an ACC looking to close gap with P2 chasing Cal or CU, over two football brands that pull well like Utah or Baylor, but that’s being pedantic.

I think the point is that there is risk for many schools in the Pac and Big 12 if it’s an ACC P3, and because of this, getting to a Big 18 or Big 20 is more likely than just the measuring contests fans like to suggest. The business case is you don’t care about what the conference is called, you take an offer that sufficiently offloads risk, budget risk and risk of being out of the eventual P3.

A Big 20 does that for 20/22 schools currently easily able to make moves, and in the least cost, least risk direction. Call it the Pac if it gets over the Frank Fan syndrome. But it’s a better chance of being in the P3 than going all-in on the ACC having room

About the bolded - a prior post you made make me think it might be inevitable that a future "P3" might be based on the ACC, because of ESPN's long-term (2036) investment in the ACC.

That's because I'm not sure a "Big 20" or "PAC 20" - I agree with you, labels don't matter - is more valuable or attractive then the current ACC. The problem, IMO, is a lot of dead weight on the bottom of such a conference. Too much to make it clear-cut better than the ACC for #3.

I think ESPN’s long position on ACC is a pivotal factor. There is no denying that’s a benefit to ACC leftovers. It is not a free market with that.

Building out the ACC as it stands today is unquestionably the best P3, maybe a P2.5.

But building out a P3 based on ACC leftovers is another matter. The ACC leftovers have the least value of all the bottom. That Pitt-Wake game did not go unnoticed. And depending on how many ACC schools needed to move any ACC schools, it may not matter to ESPN which conference lineage is the P3. If it’s 10 to P2, if the P2s are going 20+, the remaining ACC long positions can be paid off in the Big 12 as easily as ACC, while freeing up ACC brand to live on as division in SEC

Bait and switch risks are high for schools to go to ACC. So it’s the same reason why even though B12 schools should have been begging for Pac 12 invite last 12 months, getting dissolution to go Pac12 was never going to happen after last August. Stay together and make them come to you.


Then there are factors like KU not actually wanting to help appease the ACC. Their dreams of P2 are tied to more escalatory realignment. And the Big 12 looking for win-win solutions on OU/UT exit. And FOX having incentive to make its own middle class, if nothing else for mass over ESPN and making it more expensive for espn to retain top ACC schools. I’ve read FOX has ambitions of BIG plus Big East to monetize new CBB postseason. They’d need to bolster with some ACC and KU for that


We’ll find out quickly Imo. Pac10 staying at 10 or backfilling is not an issue for Big 12. It would be what like the last 11 months in terms of uncertainty around PAC longevity but with PAC weaker. ESPN adding top of Pac to ACC, or all, or some mountain schools going to Big 12 would be the two most likely next moves imo.