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What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1
What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.
07-10-2022 12:34 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #2
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.

It would be weird, but it makes sense on a certain level.

1. They're available and you have to consider the market penetration.

2. If the PAC as a league is off the table then ESPN will enjoy a late night window although I imagine they might bump up the timeline a little if they're blending Eastern/Central with Mountain on a regular basis.

11 am central, 2:30 pm central, 6 pm central, 8pm central to cover your Mountain teams on a regular basis.

With the CBS game of the week no longer on the schedule, the league actually has more flexibility. They can bunch a few more afternoon games together rather than trying to schedule around that slot. Staggering could have a slight advantage if certain evening games get out of hand competitively.

That and there will be so many schools that even fans that are used to watching multiple games aren't going to get a taste of everything. 20 schools means an average of 10 conference games a week. Some weeks will involve more games when you consider non-conference. Some weeks might be less when you consider off weeks.

3. It's not necessary for the conference to add programs that will be at the top of the food chain. We already have plenty of those and we do need to consider the math of it. If a program used to winning 8-10 games a year wins less consistently because of the sheer quality of competition then it might behoove us to have a few squads that aren't expected to win as much. Not everyone can be a top product. While brand vs brand competition is very important to increased revenue, there is a balance when it comes to maintaining the perception of what a brand is. So I think it's somewhat savvy to consider programs that are important in their own markets, but don't automatically rattle the food chain. The SEC has a history of adding to the middle more so than to the top.
07-10-2022 06:59 PM
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OdinFrigg Offline
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Post: #3
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-10-2022 06:59 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.

It would be weird, but it makes sense on a certain level.

1. They're available and you have to consider the market penetration.

2. If the PAC as a league is off the table then ESPN will enjoy a late night window although I imagine they might bump up the timeline a little if they're blending Eastern/Central with Mountain on a regular basis.

11 am central, 2:30 pm central, 6 pm central, 8pm central to cover your Mountain teams on a regular basis.

With the CBS game of the week no longer on the schedule, the league actually has more flexibility. They can bunch a few more afternoon games together rather than trying to schedule around that slot. Staggering could have a slight advantage if certain evening games get out of hand competitively.

That and there will be so many schools that even fans that are used to watching multiple games aren't going to get a taste of everything. 20 schools means an average of 10 conference games a week. Some weeks will involve more games when you consider non-conference. Some weeks might be less when you consider off weeks.

3. It's not necessary for the conference to add programs that will be at the top of the food chain. We already have plenty of those and we do need to consider the math of it. If a program used to winning 8-10 games a year wins less consistently because of the sheer quality of competition then it might behoove us to have a few squads that aren't expected to win as much. Not everyone can be a top product. While brand vs brand competition is very important to increased revenue, there is a balance when it comes to maintaining the perception of what a brand is. So I think it's somewhat savvy to consider programs that are important in their own markets, but don't automatically rattle the food chain. The SEC has a history of adding to the middle more so than to the top.

Frankly, I hope it will stop at #20. I say that for all conferences. I like what the SEC has @ 16.

Some very good athletic programs still remain in the B12. Oklahoma State is overlooked and undervalued, IMO. Iowa State gets nice crowds and has grown to be competitive. Baylor, if they can escape scandals, does well in fb and m & w bb.

The ACC needs to get proactive about expansion. The’ll regret not pursuing WVU & Cincy.

I am not keen on adding deep western schools in the SEC. Eventually, the SEC will get a couple to four (+?) ACC schools.
07-10-2022 08:40 PM
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Post: #4
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
This scenario looks far more cleaner. In some ways I'd prefer this, as long as the ACC gets a tremendous pay of course course.
07-10-2022 11:16 PM
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Post: #5
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.

If there would still be a massive $$$ disparity between the ACC and SEC/B1G...I'd still be done with college football. I did it with pro sports for other reasons (aside for exactly one game...the Super Bowl because there's often a party to go to). My team would be playing div 1 ball on a div 3 (comparatively) budget. I don't think I'd be alone. At that point, I'd hope my school would focus on academics....and put more emphasis on soccer/olympic sports. In the above re-alignment...I'd want the ACC to add UCF and USF instead of the schools further away from FL. Then FSU/Miami/UCF/USF would certainly have some substantial combined power within the state of FL...and could wield that beyond sports. It would also help with folks attending the games.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2022 07:49 AM by GarnetAndBlue.)
07-12-2022 07:38 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
18 has always been my max. And while a division of Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah seems like it would make sense, all I see are 4 schools that the bulk of the SEC would no interest playing. Save for Mizzou, I think the SEC has been very calculating in adding teams that 'fit' the character of the conference. I just have a hard time seeing the value of ASU over NCSU or CU over VT.
07-12-2022 07:41 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #7
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-12-2022 07:38 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.

If there would still be a massive $$$ disparity between the ACC and SEC/B1G...I'd still be done with college football. I did it with pro sports for other reasons (aside for exactly one game...the Super Bowl because there's often a party to go to). My team would be playing div 1 ball on a div 3 (comparatively) budget. I don't think I'd be alone. At that point, I'd hope my school would focus on academics....and put more emphasis on soccer/olympic sports.

Well, at least you aren't slow on the uptake like many on another board here. I sometimes gave my children a choice between what they thought they wanted and what I had planned for them so by their own decision they could learn that we don't always want what is best, or most enjoyable and decisions have consequences.

This exercise was to illustrate exactly what you deduced and do it without the SEC and B1G disturbing the ACC's world which too many ACC people curse only to arrive at the conclusion that (A) Somebody else is doing it to them instead of it being the result of their schools affirming Swofford's decisions. (B) The Evil Empire of the North or the Evil Empire of the South © ESPN. Or my favorite (D) the damned football first schools of the ACC who don't succeed and work hard enough to pay for their basketball and lacrosse. That's some distorted world view!

This alignment should read, if you get what you whine about everyone but you will advance, and frankly won't need any of you. Do you want to play or not?
07-12-2022 07:51 AM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #8
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-12-2022 07:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-12-2022 07:38 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  
(07-10-2022 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC moved to 20 with: Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State

Yep, get out your maps.

The Big 10 took: Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Notre Dame

Now only the Big 12 and ACC remained to form an alliance and the values roughly match.

Why? The SEC and B1G are mostly composed of flagships and it gives both conferences late night games and more markets.

It keeps the B1G out of the South.

It squeezes SEC competition from FSU, Miami and Clemson economically.

It expands ESPN markets and limits FOX.

SEC:

Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Utah

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee


B1G 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


ACC:

Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami




This is just a new approach to expand conversation. It's interesting to consider. I'm not advocating for it. But it would be potentially more valuable excluding a presence in N.Carolina and Virginia. It's ESPN friendly.

If there would still be a massive $$$ disparity between the ACC and SEC/B1G...I'd still be done with college football. I did it with pro sports for other reasons (aside for exactly one game...the Super Bowl because there's often a party to go to). My team would be playing div 1 ball on a div 3 (comparatively) budget. I don't think I'd be alone. At that point, I'd hope my school would focus on academics....and put more emphasis on soccer/olympic sports.

Well, at least you aren't slow on the uptake like many on another board here. I sometimes gave my children a choice between what they thought they wanted and what I had planned for them so by their own decision they could learn that we don't always want what is best, or most enjoyable and decisions have consequences.

This exercise was to illustrate exactly what you deduced and do it without the SEC and B1G disturbing the ACC's world which too many ACC people curse only to arrive at the conclusion that (A) Somebody else is doing it to them instead of it being the result of their schools affirming Swofford's decisions. (B) The Evil Empire of the North or the Evil Empire of the South © ESPN. Or my favorite (D) the damned football first schools of the ACC who don't succeed and work hard enough to pay for their basketball and lacrosse. That's some distorted world view!

This alignment should read, if you get what you whine about everyone but you will advance, and frankly won't need any of you. Do you want to play or not?

Absolutely. And I would expect FSU to find a way to somehow make up for it in all other non-football aspects. Heck...long-term it might be a huge win. A lot more kids these days are playing soccer and you-name-it. Tackle football seems to be on a steep decline in my hood. It won't happen overnight but the sport very well could be no more popular that regular season college basketball in 30 years. I'm pivoting toward wanting FSU to sponsor UCF/USF into the ACC and then those 3 schools be allies (not just football) going forward in all aspects within the state and beyond.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2022 12:37 PM by GarnetAndBlue.)
07-12-2022 11:24 AM
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mac6115cd Offline
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Post: #9
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
I think your proposal has merit; however, I don't trust any of the conference Commissioners. Money is the only deciding factor here.

With the new B1G TV deal expected to approach $1B, that would be a massive payout of roughly $71 million per school per year. The SEC paid their schools ~$55M.

Who would jump (if any) to the B1G: Florida? Georgia? Auburn? LSU? A&M? Missouri?

Anything's possible. Conference loyalty is a thing of the past.
07-12-2022 07:30 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #10
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-12-2022 07:30 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  I think your proposal has merit; however, I don't trust any of the conference Commissioners. Money is the only deciding factor here.

With the new B1G TV deal expected to approach $1B, that would be a massive payout of roughly $71 million per school per year. The SEC paid their schools ~$55M.

Who would jump (if any) to the B1G: Florida? Georgia? Auburn? LSU? A&M? Missouri?

Anything's possible. Conference loyalty is a thing of the past.

1. Last year the SEC out earned the B1G by 9 million per school in media revenue alone.

2. Last year the SEC media revenue was 787 million in total. The news media reported the SEC's new ESPN contract for T1 rights as above 300 million. This was a round down number put out by USAToday and copied by other media for a nice round number. CBS offered 307 million and was rejected. The SEC hasn't released details because they are waiting until the B1G signs their new contract. But for the sake of argument if the new deal was only 307 million, which it definitely is higher, and the old contract with CBS which was over a decade old and was for 55 million, then the minimum raise for T1 rights was 252 million which added to existing contracted amount of 787 million is 1.039 billion. Oops!

3. Jack Thompson, a CEO for the company which advertises for Disney/ESPN and Coca-Cola, who is also an Auburn alum, said when the details come out he expected the deal to be closer to 400 million than to 350 million. Split that to 375 million more and you have 68 million more than was guessed and under-reported by the press. Add that to 1.039 billion and you get 1.107 billion.

4. Does 1.1 billion sound familiar to you? It's the upper range of the new B1G contract which now includes USC and UCLA and is negotiated for 16 schools. And here's the surprise. The SEC contract is for 14 schools as it was signed prior to Oklahoma and Texas joining and does not include their additive value. Why? Including them in a contract signed before they joined would leave ESPN with liability.

5. So I'm not going to troll you by suggesting the SEC will have enough to raid Ohio State and Penn State, yet. But you won't troll here again with incomplete or inaccurate info.

6. By the way this, of course, means the SEC was the first to sign a billion-dollar deal. We just didn't shout it from the lungs of the press and thump our chests about it. Why not? The national championship trophies reside in the South and that is what it's all about!
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2022 08:19 PM by JRsec.)
07-12-2022 08:04 PM
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Porcine Offline
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Post: #11
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
Isn't the SEC deal pro rata, so that we won't be taking a cut when OUT's in?
07-12-2022 10:39 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #12
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-12-2022 10:39 PM)Porcine Wrote:  Isn't the SEC deal pro rata, so that we won't be taking a cut when OUT's in?

There will be no cut. Those 2 will add significantly. Think 15 million per school significant.
07-12-2022 10:56 PM
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Post: #13
RE: What if Expansion to 20 happened for the SEC and Big 10 Without the ACC?
(07-12-2022 10:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-12-2022 10:39 PM)Porcine Wrote:  Isn't the SEC deal pro rata, so that we won't be taking a cut when OUT's in?

There will be no cut. Those 2 will add significantly. Think 15 million per school significant.

That's what I mean. It's not set so that it gets split 16 ways instead of 14. Too many want to come back with "the pie gets split even more" line.
07-12-2022 11:02 PM
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