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Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #81
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(12-29-2023 08:55 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(12-24-2023 10:08 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(12-24-2023 09:57 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  There is some chatter that Fox Sports would prefer that Miami (FL) accompany Florida State to the Big Ten if they are able to come to a settlement to leave the ACC. Also, the rumor is that the SEC is hot after UNC and they'd prefer Virginia as their partner but would take either Duke or NC State if that's what it'd take to win over UNC. No real info on Clemson so far.

Just passing along what I've heard.

The Big10 should also grab Virginia and Duke to make that decision easier for them : )

NC, NC State, Clemson, and Louisville, wouldn't be bad for the SEC...

If you go to 22, the B1G with Duke, Florida St, Miami, and Virginia wouldn’t be bad. The SEC would get to 20 with Clemson, Kansas, North Carolina, and North Carolina St and to 22 with Louisville and Virginia Tech.

20 seems to be the number that the power conferences would settle on, especially since the Domers aren't in a rush to join a conference any time soon. I could see the ACC going on but looking very differently and having to go fully national in order to survive in the new age.

FSU, Clemson -> Big Ten
UNC, Virginia, NC State, Virginia Tech -> SEC
Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Louisville -> Big 12

"new" ACC:

Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford, Cal, San Diego State
SMU, Rice, Tulane, Memphis, UAB
Wake Forest, Duke, Charlotte, East Carolina, South Florida
Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Army (fb only), Navy(fb only)

1. Keep OSU and WSU in the fold and avoid the "embarrassment" of leaving them out of the adults table
2. UAB in an area with lots of passion for college sports and would be complementary to the rest of that division
3. Without UNC the likes of Duke and Wake would like to rebuild the "Carolina Mafia" to make their new reality more to their comfort
4. Army and Navy draw decent numbers nationally and would help the conference in the Northeast
01-04-2024 06:39 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #82
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
My guess is that the Big 10 loses out on FSU—

Clemson and FSU to the SEC

Big 10 and SEC both sit at 18
Big 12 sticks with 16
It’s 50/50 whether the ACC backfills

That’s where things stay unless ND gets concerned about their standing.
01-07-2024 06:22 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #83
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(01-07-2024 06:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My guess is that the Big 10 loses out on FSU—

Clemson and FSU to the SEC

Big 10 and SEC both sit at 18
Big 12 sticks with 16
It’s 50/50 whether the ACC backfills

That’s where things stay unless ND gets concerned about their standing.

I think it'll depend on what happens with the court case, but let's say that espn doesn't exercise their option, which then makes 2027 the magic date.

The GoR issue then is likely much more easily negotiated.

And so the current unhappiness stays more focused on the CFP, and doesn't expand to the SEC/espn more than it already has.

In that case, I agree with you that it's very likely that FSU plus1 (likely Clemson) go to the SEC.

That said, I think an FSU+3 is also rather likely. I think they really want NC (plus NC State or VT).

And if that happens, the Big10 likely add 2 for 20 - Probably Miami plus either USF, GT, or VA.
01-07-2024 11:16 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #84
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
Start at 7:20



01-31-2024 09:35 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #85
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(01-31-2024 09:35 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Start at 7:20




Realignment is coming. And it may be to 24. For the B1G, they can wait on a few schools: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Stanford, and Utah. Those schools aren't going to the SEC. If they can only get a couple "desired" ACC schools, then they'll fill in as necessary from the former PAC.

As far as the ACC options, I imagine the B1G is in the driver's seat for Virginia. I think the Cavaliers would prefer to head North before they headed South. After that, I think Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami are toss-ups. I think Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida St lean to the SEC. I think North Carolina St and Virginia Tech are realistic options for either but will take whoever is willing make an offer.

The other ACC schools like Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, and Wake Forest could be left in the dust. Louisville to the SEC and Pittsburgh to the B1G are longshots, in my opinion. Now, Kansas could go either way but with Missouri in the SEC, I could see the SEC adding the Jayhawks.

Finally, Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame will stay independent unless the financial disparity reaches some magic number they haven't disclosed. No matter what the school says about independence, that hurdle would be too much.
01-31-2024 11:18 AM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #86
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(01-31-2024 11:18 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Realignment is coming. And it may be to 24. For the B1G, they can wait on a few schools: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Stanford, and Utah. Those schools aren't going to the SEC. If they can only get a couple "desired" ACC schools, then they'll fill in as necessary from the former PAC.

As far as the ACC options, I imagine the B1G is in the driver's seat for Virginia. I think the Cavaliers would prefer to head North before they headed South. After that, I think Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami are toss-ups. I think Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida St lean to the SEC. I think North Carolina St and Virginia Tech are realistic options for either but will take whoever is willing make an offer.

The other ACC schools like Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, and Wake Forest could be left in the dust. Louisville to the SEC and Pittsburgh to the B1G are longshots, in my opinion. Now, Kansas could go either way but with Missouri in the SEC, I could see the SEC adding the Jayhawks.

Finally, Notre Dame. I think Notre Dame will stay independent unless the financial disparity reaches some magic number they haven't disclosed. No matter what the school says about independence, that hurdle would be too much.

I think that's a generally fair assessment.

A couple thoughts:

I think most people agree with what they were saying in the video about Duke to the Big10 would be a good thing. I really like the idea of the pair of Duke and Kansas.

I think Missouri is over the Kansas/Missouri rivalry. Plus Kansas being a basketball school, I think they'd prefer the Big10. I don't see them wanting to be another Vanderbilt.

And I still think North Carolina could go either way.

If the target really is 24 (and I think that's current hype that may change once the facts start coming in) then that's only 6 more schools for the Big10.

Right now, I don't think anyone but FSU knows which of the P2 they prefer. But even if they go to the SEC, USF in Tampa is a good second Florida school target for the Big10. I just don't think it was coincidence that Miami and USF were just added to the AAU.

So if it's 2 Florida schools, with Virginia, Duke, and Kansas, then it's just a question of whether the SEC tries for GT.

Toss in NC and that's 25 schools.

FSU/USF, Miami, GT, Virginia, NC, Duke, Kansas

But that said, I think there's a good chance that FSU/NC head to the SEC.

And even if that happens, if the Big10 add the 6 that I note above (USF, Miami, GT, Virginia, Duke, Kansas), I think the SEC has some tough choices for their 8 to get to 24.

FSU, NC, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, get them to 5. The next 3 are what? Louisville, West Virginia, OK State, Kansas State, or another Texas school or 2? Maybe reach out towards Utah (and BYU?) These are all schools which I think most people would call long shots.

So I think the SEC is likely going to want to go after some of the Big10 targets.

So if the Big10 wants get their preferred choices, they are going to need to get in there ahead of the SEC.

Once they do, then the next 4 - AZ, AZ State, Colorado, and Stanford, may just be waiting round the corner.
(This post was last modified: 01-31-2024 01:31 PM by Skyhawk.)
01-31-2024 01:29 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #87
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.
02-02-2024 12:36 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #88
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-02-2024 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.

The "revenue model" is whatever the media partners are willing to pay.

They may play hardball, but they aren't stupid.

And the more schools pulled to the P2, the less value the other conferences have.

If enough schools are pulled out of the ACC or the Big10, that likely ends the media deal.

And 3 revenue partners are likely going to find more ways to be able to pay more, than a single revenue partner.

Unless we're talking about Apple or Amazon, of course : )
02-02-2024 01:47 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #89
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(01-31-2024 11:18 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-31-2024 09:35 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Start at 7:20




Realignment is coming. And it may be to 24.

I'm now convinced, after watching yesterday's news on the alliance forming between Sankey and Petitti.

If I have to guess, they've low keyed agreed to the parameters to how to split the programs needed to get to the magic number. Perhaps Sankey accepted the Big Ten entering the state of Florida in exchange for the rest of the Southeast being under SEC control. The SEC could also take another chunk of the Southwest and control the Phoenix market. There will still be holes in coverage but at least all four time zones in the continental 48 are represented.

Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Kansas, Colorado, Utah -> Big Ten

USC, UCLA, OR, WA, UU, CU
KU, UNL, IA, MN, WI, NU
IL, IN, PU, MSU, UM, OSU
ND, RU, UMD, FSU, PSU, Mia

Arizona State, Arizona, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State -> SEC

AZ, ASU, UT, TAMU, OU, Ark
LSU, MS, MSU, AL, TN, VU
MO, KY, WVU, Clem, SC, VT
UVA, UNC, NCS, GA, FL, AU


Divisions are set up nice and easy. Some rivalries would have to be protected every season but they shouldn't cause too much disruption if done correctly.

The money to pay for this would come from not having to pay the Big 12 and ACC as much. What remains of the PAC/ACC/B12 would form a new entity that would take on new media partners who want to enter the college sports market in a major way.
02-05-2024 10:32 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #90
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-05-2024 10:32 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(01-31-2024 11:18 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-31-2024 09:35 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Start at 7:20




Realignment is coming. And it may be to 24.

I'm now convinced, after watching yesterday's news on the alliance forming between Sankey and Petitti.

If I have to guess, they've low keyed agreed to the parameters to how to split the programs needed to get to the magic number. Perhaps Sankey accepted the Big Ten entering the state of Florida in exchange for the rest of the Southeast being under SEC control. The SEC could also take another chunk of the Southwest and control the Phoenix market. There will still be holes in coverage but at least all four time zones in the continental 48 are represented.

Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Kansas, Colorado, Utah -> Big Ten

USC, UCLA, OR, WA, UU, CU
KU, UNL, IA, MN, WI, NU
IL, IN, PU, MSU, UM, OSU
ND, RU, UMD, FSU, PSU, Mia

Arizona State, Arizona, Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State -> SEC

AZ, ASU, UT, TAMU, OU, Ark
LSU, MS, MSU, AL, TN, VU
MO, KY, WVU, Clem, SC, VT
UVA, UNC, NCS, GA, FL, AU


Divisions are set up nice and easy. Some rivalries would have to be protected every season but they shouldn't cause too much disruption if done correctly.

The money to pay for this would come from not having to pay the Big 12 and ACC as much. What remains of the PAC/ACC/B12 would form a new entity that would take on new media partners who want to enter the college sports market in a major way.

I suspect they may have reached an agreement, but one between FOX and ESPN modified by Sankey and Petitti, but it would not have looked anything like that. And Notre Dame will continue to call its own shots. If it's part of the upper tier, and I think it will be, it will be as an independent with an equal share, or within a third conference built for their purposes.
02-05-2024 06:23 PM
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Post: #91
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
IF the ACC is in fact going to implode, the state of Florida should be priority number1. I personally believe that FSU is more valuable than Notre Dame due to delivering a state full of ☆☆☆☆☆ recruits. Notre Dame doesn't want a conference so let that rest. I'd be fine with a scheduling agreement between the BIG and ND of some sort.

FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Kansas and Utah would be a solid 6 if going to 24.

I would make a call to Texas A&M first before an invite to Utah. Just to see if their marriage is still solid.

I also wouldn't be surprised if NC, NC State, Duke, and Wake Forest stuck together. I'm not an ACC historian, lol, I just feel like that state and their schools are committed to each other and their conference.
02-06-2024 03:10 PM
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Skyhawk Offline
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Post: #92
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-06-2024 03:10 PM)cubucks Wrote:  IF the ACC is in fact going to implode, the state of Florida should be priority number1. I personally believe that FSU is more valuable than Notre Dame due to delivering a state full of ☆☆☆☆☆ recruits. Notre Dame doesn't want a conference so let that rest. I'd be fine with a scheduling agreement between the BIG and ND of some sort.

FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Kansas and Utah would be a solid 6 if going to 24.

I would make a call to Texas A&M first before an invite to Utah. Just to see if their marriage is still solid.
...

I think we're making a mistake counting to 24 for the Big10.

Looking at the SEC, and based upon their criteria, I can see them stopping at 24.

But the Big10 has a lot more options.

And that's even if we only include AAU schools.

Starting west and moving east:

Arizona and Arizona State. Phoenix and Tuscon markers. And AZ is a basketball school. And knowing that USC fought to get them added to the PAC, lends credence to them being possibles for the Big10. Interestingly, pundits seemed to favor AZ over State, before State made AAU. And besides that, adding both makes a western pod of 6 schools. Which should help out travel.

Utah - Geography works against them. They could get added, but I think others are added first. They could have a shot at being an SEC target.

Colorado - Big8 rival. For travel, links well between the plains schools and the pacific schools. Current hype due to new coach.

Kansas - Big8 rival. Basketball school. Should be added to prevent the SEC from adding.

Missouri and Texas A&M - should check to see how happy they are about Texas joining. But likely to stay in the SEC.

Pittsburgh - Unlikely due to Penn State, but, like Utah, is possible.

Virginia - Maryland rival. Is a real possibility, due to Maryland and Pitt wanting local rivals adding to balance west coast additions.

North Carolina - A real question mark. Doesn't have the money concerns some schools have. So they could be content in their own conference. But rumors suggest that they are more in "opportunist" mode. Could go either way. But I think they tilt towards the SEC.

Duke - Basketball power. Lack of football strength makes them an unlikely add to the SEC, though possible. Like Kansas, the Big10 should add them to prevent the SEC from adding.

Georgia Tech - mostly SEC rivalries. But, like Duke, not considered a football school. Would be a good addition to add the Atlanta market, and to link to Florida.

Miami - Florida. (Did I mention Florida? lol) Big10 alumni region. I don't think them getting AAU recently was a coincidence.

USF - Florida (again). Tampa market. As I said about Miami, I don't think it's a coincidence that they were added to AAU. And travel is easier than FSU.

Florida - possible, but I think unlikely, unless Georgia moves too.

I skipped Buffalo, Tulane, and Rice. They could get added, but unlikely. And I don't think Vanderbilt is leaving the SEC as things currently stand.

Syracuse and Iowa State, being former AAU, could get invite, but only if the Big10 was going really big.

So looking at the above, I think 28 is likely closer to the Big10's eventual number.

That means adding 10 schools.

And one of them could be non-AAU Florida State.

I think it'll be these 9 to the Big10:

AZ, AZ State, Colorado, Kansas, Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, and USF or FSU

Plus one of the others above for 10. Could it be Utah or NC or Pitt? Of those 3, I think NC could be the most likely, if the SEC doesn't add them.

I guess we'll see.
02-06-2024 09:07 PM
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Post: #93
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-02-2024 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.

The "revenue model" is whatever the media partners are willing to pay.

They may play hardball, but they aren't stupid.

And the more schools pulled to the P2, the less value the other conferences have.

If enough schools are pulled out of the ACC or the Big10, that likely ends the media deal.

And 3 revenue partners are likely going to find more ways to be able to pay more, than a single revenue partner.

Unless we're talking about Apple or Amazon, of course : )

When I say revenue model, what I mean is that at present, the biggest dollars come from being able to provide huge names and match ups for the major networks in the traditional time slots. Conferences can make additional money if they have a big enough catalog of content to be able to fill some T2 and T3 slots as well and through either a conference network or a streaming package.

With the way things are headed, I see there being the most potential for future value on the streaming side. These conferences are so big and have so many brands you’re going to end up with some major programs and attractive matchups that don’t even crack the top 3. Streaming suddenly has a lot more value when you’ve got at least one of the big ones on streaming each week.
02-09-2024 07:05 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #94
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-09-2024 07:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.

The "revenue model" is whatever the media partners are willing to pay.

They may play hardball, but they aren't stupid.

And the more schools pulled to the P2, the less value the other conferences have.

If enough schools are pulled out of the ACC or the Big10, that likely ends the media deal.

And 3 revenue partners are likely going to find more ways to be able to pay more, than a single revenue partner.

Unless we're talking about Apple or Amazon, of course : )

When I say revenue model, what I mean is that at present, the biggest dollars come from being able to provide huge names and match ups for the major networks in the traditional time slots. Conferences can make additional money if they have a big enough catalog of content to be able to fill some T2 and T3 slots as well and through either a conference network or a streaming package.

With the way things are headed, I see there being the most potential for future value on the streaming side. These conferences are so big and have so many brands you’re going to end up with some major programs and attractive matchups that don’t even crack the top 3. Streaming suddenly has a lot more value when you’ve got at least one of the big ones on streaming each week.

Muskie, the estimate on a breakaway by the SEC and Big 10 into a new upper tier, with a self-contained schedule making, and a self-contained 16 team playoff adds both the content increases you speak of at all tiers, but more importantly such a 16 team playoff with no dud draws on television markets got a estimate of 2.7 billion which if divided equally between ESPN and FOX and pals, and between an expanded Big 10 and SEC would net each of the 4 entities 675 million more in annual revenue.

People are always saying I don't see more money in these additions. Well, the additions will be made for added content and the profits from the content boost in regular season games and in the playoff, revenue pays easily for either the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 or even 28 members each and every one will make in the 90 million a year range.

As usual those on the board think backwards to how things were once calculated and in doing so miss the much bigger payoff. It's why I've been saying the limit on teams is equal to the content needs of the networks. The playoff makes it all possible.
02-09-2024 07:22 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #95
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?


02-21-2024 11:43 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #96
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-09-2024 07:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-09-2024 07:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.

The "revenue model" is whatever the media partners are willing to pay.

They may play hardball, but they aren't stupid.

And the more schools pulled to the P2, the less value the other conferences have.

If enough schools are pulled out of the ACC or the Big10, that likely ends the media deal.

And 3 revenue partners are likely going to find more ways to be able to pay more, than a single revenue partner.

Unless we're talking about Apple or Amazon, of course : )

When I say revenue model, what I mean is that at present, the biggest dollars come from being able to provide huge names and match ups for the major networks in the traditional time slots. Conferences can make additional money if they have a big enough catalog of content to be able to fill some T2 and T3 slots as well and through either a conference network or a streaming package.

With the way things are headed, I see there being the most potential for future value on the streaming side. These conferences are so big and have so many brands you’re going to end up with some major programs and attractive matchups that don’t even crack the top 3. Streaming suddenly has a lot more value when you’ve got at least one of the big ones on streaming each week.

Muskie, the estimate on a breakaway by the SEC and Big 10 into a new upper tier, with a self-contained schedule making, and a self-contained 16 team playoff adds both the content increases you speak of at all tiers, but more importantly such a 16 team playoff with no dud draws on television markets got a estimate of 2.7 billion which if divided equally between ESPN and FOX and pals, and between an expanded Big 10 and SEC would net each of the 4 entities 675 million more in annual revenue.

People are always saying I don't see more money in these additions. Well, the additions will be made for added content and the profits from the content boost in regular season games and in the playoff, revenue pays easily for either the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 or even 28 members each and every one will make in the 90 million a year range.

As usual those on the board think backwards to how things were once calculated and in doing so miss the much bigger payoff. It's why I've been saying the limit on teams is equal to the content needs of the networks. The playoff makes it all possible.

I guess it comes down to which breakaway model is more profitable:

A) The Big 10 and SEC both expand to ~20 teams and then breakaway with the Big 12 and ACC as part of the breakaway

B) The Big 10 and SEC both expand to 24-28 teams (at the expense of the ACC and Big 12) then breakaway

Personally I like model A because I still think the Big 10 and SEC get a massive paycheck, they come across as more magnanimous for involving more schools in their breakaway, and they don’t have to give up the brand equity advantage that the current members have over their M2 counterparts.
02-23-2024 10:56 AM
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Post: #97
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?
(02-23-2024 10:56 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-09-2024 07:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-09-2024 07:05 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 01:47 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  
(02-02-2024 12:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t think there’s enough valuable pieces left on the board to justify 24-team Big 10 and SEC expansion. I think the revenue model would have to change in order for that added inventory to be worth it to the media companies.

Florida St, Clemson, and Notre Dame are worth expanding for. Miami and UNC can make strong cases too. If VT wasn’t chained by UVA, they’d be in consideration too. There’s not really anyone else that brings value.

The "revenue model" is whatever the media partners are willing to pay.

They may play hardball, but they aren't stupid.

And the more schools pulled to the P2, the less value the other conferences have.

If enough schools are pulled out of the ACC or the Big10, that likely ends the media deal.

And 3 revenue partners are likely going to find more ways to be able to pay more, than a single revenue partner.

Unless we're talking about Apple or Amazon, of course : )

When I say revenue model, what I mean is that at present, the biggest dollars come from being able to provide huge names and match ups for the major networks in the traditional time slots. Conferences can make additional money if they have a big enough catalog of content to be able to fill some T2 and T3 slots as well and through either a conference network or a streaming package.

With the way things are headed, I see there being the most potential for future value on the streaming side. These conferences are so big and have so many brands you’re going to end up with some major programs and attractive matchups that don’t even crack the top 3. Streaming suddenly has a lot more value when you’ve got at least one of the big ones on streaming each week.

Muskie, the estimate on a breakaway by the SEC and Big 10 into a new upper tier, with a self-contained schedule making, and a self-contained 16 team playoff adds both the content increases you speak of at all tiers, but more importantly such a 16 team playoff with no dud draws on television markets got a estimate of 2.7 billion which if divided equally between ESPN and FOX and pals, and between an expanded Big 10 and SEC would net each of the 4 entities 675 million more in annual revenue.

People are always saying I don't see more money in these additions. Well, the additions will be made for added content and the profits from the content boost in regular season games and in the playoff, revenue pays easily for either the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 or even 28 members each and every one will make in the 90 million a year range.

As usual those on the board think backwards to how things were once calculated and in doing so miss the much bigger payoff. It's why I've been saying the limit on teams is equal to the content needs of the networks. The playoff makes it all possible.

I guess it comes down to which breakaway model is more profitable:

A) The Big 10 and SEC both expand to ~20 teams and then breakaway with the Big 12 and ACC as part of the breakaway

B) The Big 10 and SEC both expand to 24-28 teams (at the expense of the ACC and Big 12) then breakaway

Personally I like model A because I still think the Big 10 and SEC get a massive paycheck, they come across as more magnanimous for involving more schools in their breakaway, and they don’t have to give up the brand equity advantage that the current members have over their M2 counterparts.

The underlined is not part of business thinking except with customers, which these aren't and the bolded and italicized is your best argument.

But splitting the playoff shares with just the member schools of the SEC and Big 10 vs all of the members of the Big 12 and ACC is a big deal.
02-23-2024 11:53 AM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #98
RE: Big Ten's Next Move(s)?


(This post was last modified: 03-08-2024 02:21 PM by cubucks.)
02-27-2024 01:35 PM
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