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Playoff Odds (2022)
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
I think ESPN goes a little fuzzier on their simulated committee rankings. They do simulations too but each run vary the weights assigned to schedule strength, margin of victory, conference champions, etc. The one I use is determinative (one combination of victories and point margins can produce only one ranking set).

You’ll see after the last games of the season that their model will still have uncertainty as to whom the committee will actually pick. I suppose there is a reality reflected there. I still want to use mine as a ranking system too, so I don’t know that I’ll incorporate that type of variability.

Likely a 13-0 TCU misses to a 1-loss SEC team in some of their scenarios depending on how high/low the “conference championship” or “number of losses” metrics are weighted in those runs.

Yes, they have Texas as the #6 team in the country on a neutral field. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had some injury variable giving them a discount when their #1QB was injured. Texas has played well this season, but thankfully rankings still reward on the field victories.
10-31-2022 09:59 AM
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Big Frog II Online
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Post: #42
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
I'm not going to get all excited about the CFP until it expands. We know how this plays out. We've been down this road before. We were a 95% cahnce to make it after our last game in 2014 and got knocked from 3rd to 6th. ESPN picks who they want to see.
10-31-2022 10:40 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(10-31-2022 10:40 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I'm not going to get all excited about the CFP until it expands. We know how this plays out. We've been down this road before. We were a 95% cahnce to make it after our last game in 2014 and got knocked from 3rd to 6th. ESPN picks who they want to see.

On the plus-side, the Sugar Bowl should be against a decent SEC team. May be a chance TCU gets a post-bowl Top 2 ranking.
10-31-2022 10:47 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
Five Thirty Eight Playoff Odds:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/202...edictions/

Favorites to make the Playoff by %: Ohio State (67%), Georgia (64%), Clemson (54%), Tennessee (45%)
Close Behind: Michigan (35%), Alabama (30%), TCU (29%)

Odds to "Win Out" (I assume includes Conference Championship): Ohio State (49%), Georgia (32%), Clemson (32%), Alabama (25%), Utah?? (25%), Michigan (19%)

Wins Conference:
SEC: Georgia (43%), Alabama (29%), Tennessee (16%), LSU (8%), Mississippi (5%)
Big Ten: Ohio State (59%), Michigan (24%), Illinois (12%)
ACC: Clemson (72%), North Carolina (28%)
Big 12: TCU (46%), Kansas State (24%), Texas (16%), Oklahoma State (7%), Baylor (7%)
Pac 12: Oregon (38%), USC (25%), Utah (20%), UCLA (16%)
11-01-2022 05:50 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
If you go by ESPN and 538, the probable playoff is going to be...

#1 Georgia (13-0)
#2 Ohio State (13-0)
#3 Clemson (13-0)
#4 Tennessee (11-1)

and we're going to have an all SEC semifinal! What else are they going to do, rank UT above an undefeated Clemson? Rank Ohio State #1?
11-05-2022 08:47 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
Well, LSU just jumped into the drivers seat of the SEC West. They'd still have to topple Georgia, but I wonder how much they're odds will shift, especially after the last undefeated ACC team goes down.
11-05-2022 10:35 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-05-2022 10:35 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Well, LSU just jumped into the drivers seat of the SEC West. They'd still have to topple Georgia, but I wonder how much they're odds will shift, especially after the last undefeated ACC team goes down.

If TCU loses one, two big 10 and two SEC schools?
11-05-2022 10:38 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
Guess for next ranking:

#1 Georgia
#2 Ohio St
#3 Michigan
#4 TCU
#5 Tennessee
#6 Oregon
#7 LSU
#8 USC
#9 Mississippi
#10 Alabama

CFP
Peach: #1 Georgia vs #4 TCU
Fiesta: #2 Ohio St vs #3 Michigan
NY6
Rose: Oregon vs Penn St
Sugar: Tennessee vs Texas
Orange: Clemson vs Mississippi
Cotton: LSU vs Tulane
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2022 11:04 PM by BePcr07.)
11-05-2022 11:02 PM
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Big Frog II Online
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Post: #49
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
CFP praying for a TCU loss now.
11-05-2022 11:17 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-05-2022 11:17 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  CFP praying for a TCU loss now.

* TCU goes undefeated *

CFP Committee: How can we drop them in the rankings?
11-05-2022 11:20 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
Here is the full breakdown.

With the Clemson loss, the big winner is Oregon, who is now approaching Guaranteed status. 11-1 Tennessee will be the most likely team they are compared to. Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.

11-2 LSU (or Alabama)? Doesn't look as good as they did last week, that Tennessee loss is no longer seen as a gimmie. The best shot at 3 SEC teams is Ole Miss winning the SEC at 12-1; real committee may give 12-1 Rebel Champs better props than this computer committee.

Guarantees >95% (overall likelihood of this finish in parentheses)
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (56%)
100% (11-1)+W Tennessee (1%)
100% (12-0)+W Michigan (23%)
100% (12-0)+W Ohio St (58%)
100% (12-0)+W TCU (22%)
99% (11-1)+W Georgia (17%)
97% (12-0)+L Georgia (17%)
Contenders >66%
93% (11-1)+W Oregon (21%)
93% (11-1) Tennessee (80%)
92% (11-1)+W Ohio St (6%)
85% (12-0)+L Ohio St (4%)
83% (12-0)+L TCU (8%)
82% (11-1)+W Ole Miss (1%)
74% (11-1)+W TCU (28%)
60% (11-1)+W Michigan (2%)
58% (11-1) Ohio St (25%)
49% (12-0)+L Michigan (2%)
48% (10-2)+W LSU (15%)
40% (11-1)+W UCLA (25%)
Need Help >33%
30% (11-1)+W USC (12%)
27% (10-2)+W Alabama (1%)
21% (11-1) Michigan (62%)
18% (11-1)+W Clemson (43%)
9% (10-2)+W Oregon (19%)
6% (11-1)+L Georgia (6%)
5% (11-1) Ole Miss (10%)
Saying There's A Chance
0.21% Texas, 0.18% Utah, 0.06% Tulane, 0.05% North Carolina, 0.01% NC State
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2022 08:14 AM by Crayton.)
11-06-2022 07:56 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
Call me biased but I'm going to be very curious about 11-1 Michigan vs. 12-1 Oregon in the assumption that TCU loses a game. I'm assuming both teams lost their only game to an undefeated team and Oregon's loss was Week 1 but 49-3? If I'm Michigan, I remind the Committee of that score. Ohio State has been kept out of the Playoff by a few blowout losses before (Iowa? Purdue?) On the other hand, there's a difference between getting blown out by a mediocre team and getting blown out by a 13-0 team.

Michigan wasn't helped by my Illini blowing it yesterday. They'll likely have four losses now and that's assuming they beat Purdue. Michigan needs my Penn State to finish 10-2. They would love USC beating UCLA and then losing to Notre Dame, it would damage Oregon's potential Pac 12 Championship Game win.
11-06-2022 08:03 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 07:56 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.
Something like this, but some way to see which scenarios are mutually exclusive (like, 12-1 Ohio State is actually 1 spot closer to #4 because they won't be behind 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan).

1. 12-1(or better) Georgia/Tennessee
2. 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan
3. 13-0 TCU
4 12-1 Oregon
5 11-1 Tennessee
6 12-1 Ohio State
7 12-1 TCU
8 12-1 Ole Miss
9 12-1 Michigan
10 11-1 Ohio St
11 11-2 LSU
12 12-1 UCLA/USC
13 11-2 Alabama
14 11-1 Michigan
15 12-1 Clemson

...and this is still a list by percentages, not pairwise comparisons where a Champ may unseat a non-Champ.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2022 08:43 AM by Crayton.)
11-06-2022 08:07 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 08:03 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Call me biased but I'm going to be very curious about 11-1 Michigan vs. 12-1 Oregon in the assumption that TCU loses a game. I'm assuming both teams lost their only game to an undefeated team and Oregon's loss was Week 1 but 49-3? If I'm Michigan, I remind the Committee of that score. Ohio State has been kept out of the Playoff by a few blowout losses before (Iowa? Purdue?) On the other hand, there's a difference between getting blown out by a mediocre team and getting blown out by a 13-0 team.

Michigan wasn't helped by my Illini blowing it yesterday. They'll likely have four losses now and that's assuming they beat Purdue. Michigan needs my Penn State to finish 10-2. They would love USC beating UCLA and then losing to Notre Dame, it would damage Oregon's potential Pac 12 Championship Game win.

Oregon benefitted by having UCLA, Utah, and USC (and Georgia) all winning. They'll have more big opponents on their schedule than a 11-1 Michigan (or even a 12-1 Michigan). But Michigan still has a loss to give and is more likely to make it to the end of the season with 1 or fewer losses than Oregon; Wolverine fans can always just cheer for a second Oregon loss.
11-06-2022 08:12 AM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 08:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 07:56 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.
Something like this, but some way to see which scenarios are mutually exclusive (like, 12-1 Ohio State is actually 1 spot closer to #4 because they won't be behind 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan).

1. 12-1(or better) Georgia/Tennessee
2. 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan
3. 13-0 TCU
4 12-1 Oregon
5 11-1 Tennessee
6 12-1 Ohio State
7 12-1 TCU
8 12-1 Ole Miss
9 12-1 Michigan
10 11-1 Ohio St
11 11-2 LSU
12 12-1 UCLA/USC
13 11-2 Alabama
14 11-1 Michigan
15 12-1 Clemson

...and this is still a list by percentages, not pairwise comparisons where a Champ may unseat a non-Champ.

Not sure I understand your ordering above. IMO:

1) Alabama was effectively eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. It would take complete chaos to get them back into consideration.
2) USC @ 12-1 will be just as strong as Oregon (they’ll have to beat UCLA, ND and Oregon to get there).
3) Clemson @ 12-1 will be better than a non-conference champ.
4) UCLA and UNC @ 12-1 are the only one-loss P5 conference champs that are likely jumped by a one-loss non-champion.
11-06-2022 11:49 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 11:49 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 08:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 07:56 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.
Something like this, but some way to see which scenarios are mutually exclusive (like, 12-1 Ohio State is actually 1 spot closer to #4 because they won't be behind 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan).

1. 12-1(or better) Georgia/Tennessee
2. 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan
3. 13-0 TCU
4 12-1 Oregon
5 11-1 Tennessee
6 12-1 Ohio State
7 12-1 TCU
8 12-1 Ole Miss
9 12-1 Michigan
10 11-1 Ohio St
11 11-2 LSU
12 12-1 UCLA/USC
13 11-2 Alabama
14 11-1 Michigan
15 12-1 Clemson

...and this is still a list by percentages, not pairwise comparisons where a Champ may unseat a non-Champ.

Not sure I understand your ordering above. IMO:

1) Alabama was effectively eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. It would take complete chaos to get them back into consideration.
2) USC @ 12-1 will be just as strong as Oregon (they’ll have to beat UCLA, ND and Oregon to get there).
3) Clemson @ 12-1 will be better than a non-conference champ.
4) UCLA and UNC @ 12-1 are the only one-loss P5 conference champs that are likely jumped by a one-loss non-champion.

1) Agree.

2) USC will have lost to Utah while Oregon will have beaten them. Oregon's loss was to a better team (but does 49-3 counter that?)

3) You're counting on the ACC strength and considering Notre Dame a legitimate loss to say Clemson is better than a one loss non champ. You're also probably voting based on Clemson's name as well.

4) UCLA beat Utah while USC didn't so I would say UCLA's potential resume would be better than USC's (unless you think Notre Dame is worth anything right now). Also, a one loss TCU champion isn't worth much right now considering the next best team in the Big 12 has three losses.
11-06-2022 11:59 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
2014 was a tough one. I have always been of the mind that Ohio State got in that year because of Baylor. I may be wrong, but in my mind, the committee liked TCU best, Ohio State 2nd, and Baylor 3rd that year. My guess given how they talked about things was that Florida State and TCU were is a group together and Baylor was in the next lower tier before that last week (Ohio State was bottom of one or top of the other).

If the schedules were close to equal they did not want to put a 11-1 Big 12 champ TCU over an 11-1 Big 12 champ Baylor whom had beat them. That last week Baylor had a stronger opponent which evened them out enough that they moved Baylor into the same tier and we got that exact scenario. The committee already liked Ohio State better than Baylor though and the drumming of Wisconsin gave added justification so they pushed TCU down even after showing for weeks they liked them best of the three.

If Baylor had lost their final game, my money would have been on TCU at 4 and Ohio State at 5. It would have been closer after the Big Ten Championship that year no matter what though.
(This post was last modified: 11-06-2022 12:17 PM by ohio1317.)
11-06-2022 12:16 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 11:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 11:49 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 08:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-06-2022 07:56 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.
Something like this, but some way to see which scenarios are mutually exclusive (like, 12-1 Ohio State is actually 1 spot closer to #4 because they won't be behind 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan).

1. 12-1(or better) Georgia/Tennessee
2. 13-0 Ohio State/Michigan
3. 13-0 TCU
4 12-1 Oregon
5 11-1 Tennessee
6 12-1 Ohio State
7 12-1 TCU
8 12-1 Ole Miss
9 12-1 Michigan
10 11-1 Ohio St
11 11-2 LSU
12 12-1 UCLA/USC
13 11-2 Alabama
14 11-1 Michigan
15 12-1 Clemson

...and this is still a list by percentages, not pairwise comparisons where a Champ may unseat a non-Champ.

Not sure I understand your ordering above. IMO:

1) Alabama was effectively eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. It would take complete chaos to get them back into consideration.
2) USC @ 12-1 will be just as strong as Oregon (they’ll have to beat UCLA, ND and Oregon to get there).
3) Clemson @ 12-1 will be better than a non-conference champ.
4) UCLA and UNC @ 12-1 are the only one-loss P5 conference champs that are likely jumped by a one-loss non-champion.

1) Agree.

2) USC will have lost to Utah while Oregon will have beaten them. Oregon's loss was to a better team (but does 49-3 counter that?)

3) You're counting on the ACC strength and considering Notre Dame a legitimate loss to say Clemson is better than a one loss non champ. You're also probably voting based on Clemson's name as well.

4) UCLA beat Utah while USC didn't so I would say UCLA's potential resume would be better than USC's (unless you think Notre Dame is worth anything right now). Also, a one loss TCU champion isn't worth much right now considering the next best team in the Big 12 has three losses.

1) Also agree.

2) Oregon is almost a quasi-undefeated team, having lost to the insurmountable Bulldogs. The MOV may hurt if compared to Tennessee, but MOV is not “supposed to be” considered, just baked in to the season-long statistics.

3) 12-1 Champ is worth “something” but 11-1 OSU/UM or Tennessee probably has a better body of work. Interestingly I have an 11-2 Oregon nipping at Clemson’s heals at #16.

4) Additionally, I think Tennessee, with its victories over Alabama and LSU, will get favorable looks compared to 1-loss champs TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan.

5) 12-1 TCU isn’t a sexy brand, but the argument is that the Big 12 teams are all (or, mostly all) Top 40 teams and, like the long-time SEC argument, getting out with only 1 loss is a laudable feat. I give TCU, roughly, a 1/5 chance of going undefeated, 2/5 finishing with 1 loss, and 2/5 finishing with more. They have some tough opponents upcoming and they should start to look, at least marginally, more deserving of a Top 4 ranking each game.
11-06-2022 12:27 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
(11-06-2022 07:56 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Lots of 12-1 teams are tangled in this Contender category. I really want a more graphical way to represent this chart, but have had little success.

Alright, maybe this captures a bit of the ambiguity of pair-wise comparisons, keeps mutually-exclusive columns, and still gives a general order of who is likely to make the playoff depending on finish.
[Image: attachment.php?aid=11300]

Gold shading indicates the median result. Green is above average, red is below.

So, for example, UCLA looks to be behind 5 teams (SEC East Champ, UM/OSU Winner, Texas Christian, Tennessee, and SEC West Champ), but only 3 teams are "likely" to finish ahead (SEC East Champ, UM/OSU Winner, and Tennessee). UCLA's rooting interests are made more clear (?) by this graph. Of course, the Bruins still have to contend with other "Contenders" and overall still post only a 40% playoff chance even if they win out.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2022 03:54 PM by Crayton.)
11-07-2022 03:22 PM
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RE: Playoff Odds (2022)
ESPN Playoff Predictor Update:
Best Chances:
Georgia: 91%, Ohio State: 87%, Tennessee: 64%, Michigan: 63%

Next In Line:
Clemson 31%, ALABAMA??? 16%, TCU 16%, Oregon 14%

Odds to Win:
UGa: Miss St: 84%, Ky: 90%, GaT: 99%. Conf Ch: 79%
OSU: Ind 98%, Md: 88%, Mich: 69%, Conf Ch: 91%
Tenn: Mo 93%, SC 86%, Vbilt 96%, Conf Ch: 1% to win, 99% won't make it (lists 1% to lose, must be rounding error) - If Tenn wins out and doesn't make the SEC Championship Game, they will have a 77% chance to make the Playoff.
Mich: Neb 97%, Ill 89%, OSU: 31%, If they lose to OSU, Conf Ch: <1% to win, Didn't Make It: > 99%, Assuming 11-1, loss to OSU, they will have a 56% chance to make the Playoff.

Clem: Lville: 76%, Mia: 92%, SC 88%, Conf Ch: 74%, If they win out, they will have a 62% chance to make the Playoff.
Ala: Miss: 75%, AP: >99%, Aub: 96%, Conf Ch: 4% to win, Didn't Make It: 92%, If Alabama wins out and doesn't make the SEC Championship Game, they will have a 21% chance to make the Playoff??????
TCU: Tex: 27%, Bay: 43%, ISU: 70%, Conf Ch: 47% to win, 53% to lose. If they win out, they will have a 90% chance to make the Playoff??????
Ore: Wash: 78%, Utah: 55%, Ore St: 67%, Conf Ch: 60% to win, 40% to lose. If they win out, they will have a 64% chance to make the Playoff.

Alabama and TCU don't make sense to me. The chances of Tennessee and Clemson winning out and Michigan winning all but Ohio State are decent but only two of them can make the Playoff assuming Ohio State and Georgia are locks (and if OSU loses it's almost certainly to Michigan and UM just takes their spot and OSU replaces Michigan on the hot seat). Oregon's percentages aren't nearly as high (they are saying Utah is practically a coin flip) and it only takes one of them to mess them up. They act like TCU is a branch campus of Texas (27% chance to win?).

I did run TCU 12-1 with a loss to Texas. They'd be 55% to make the Playoff. I'm not sure if that means anything.
11-07-2022 05:54 PM
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