Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

Interesting ideas. But I don't think there is any scenario, ever, where Wake Forest lands an SEC invitation.

(03-04-2022 11:26 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I don't think there is any scenario, ever, where Wake Forest lands an SEC invitation.

Lloyd Christmas had a better shot with Mary Swanson

(03-04-2022 11:26 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

Interesting ideas. But I don't think there is any scenario, ever, where Wake Forest lands an SEC invitation.

There is no scenario that checks all the boxes. Wake is no more likely to get a B1G invite than one from the SEC. I'm trying to find a solution that includes every current P5 school, all of which will want to be included even in a league where players are salaried employees, and they are a lousy geographical fit for the Big 18. Where would you put them? The SEC at least can use more relatively weak football teams in conference.

I think you are on the right path Ken, I would propose to you a slight variation which brings a little symmetry and allows for common rules amongst the 4 remaining conferences,

SEC-20
B1G-20
PAC-16
BigXII/ACC-16

All play in pods system, All have Conference semi-finals determined by best team in each pod, winners all play in conference championships. From there we follow your national semi-final and championship model.

I don’t like it overall.

But if Armageddon happens…
Switch FSU & Kansas, Louisville & Wake, and stop the ACC/Big12 combo at 15 members. The B1G needs more football, and FSU provides a better academic/profile fit. The SEC can leverage basketball; both Kansas & Louisville help address that opportunity.


B1G
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois and Purdue
Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland
Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami

SEC
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and LSU
Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech and Louisville

Big 15
Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Wake Forest
Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, TCU and BYU
Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Iowa State

PAC stays as is.

(03-04-2022 01:41 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:26 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

Interesting ideas. But I don't think there is any scenario, ever, where Wake Forest lands an SEC invitation.

There is no scenario that checks all the boxes. Wake is no more likely to get a B1G invite than one from the SEC. I'm trying to find a solution that includes every current P5 school, all of which will want to be included even in a league where players are salaried employees, and they are a lousy geographical fit for the Big 18. Where would you put them? The SEC at least can use more relatively weak football teams in conference.

I'd put them in the Big 18, it seems to be catching leftovers and that is what they would be. Most of the Big 18 would be likelier to get an SEC invite than Wake - Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Texas Tech, West Virginia or Louisville being the most likely IMO.

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

I don’t really see GT and Miami as schools the SEC needs to protect the Deep South. The Georgia Bulldogs own the state because UGA pulls a lot of students from the state and many of them stay instate after graduation while GT’s recruits out-of-state and most alumni don’t stick around. GT is trending more towards Vanderbilt or Duke than it is Alabama or Florida trajectory wise. Miami may be further south, but they aren’t Southern and I don’t see them as an essential piece.

To me, Louisville’s combined football and basketball programs make them the more rounded add with a better trajectory.

The SEC definitely sits in a nice spot where they can grab say FSU and Clemson, formulate a few different strategies, and see where things go.

I also don’t see UNC as a school with enough sway to muscle out Clemson for Duke. If Texas didn’t get to bring Texas Tech, the Tar Heels don’t get a plus one either.

Creating two tiers with every current FBS school:

Tier I

Independent: Notre Dame

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida St, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Penn St, Virginia, Virginia Tech

B1G
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, Ohio St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Iowa St, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin

PAC
North: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington St
South: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

XIV
East: Boston College, Central Florida, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, TCU

Tier II

AAC
East: Appalachian St, Army, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Marshall, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas St, Navy, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, UL Lafayette

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Connecticut, Kent St, Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio
West: Ball St, Bowling Green St, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, Utah St, UTEP, UTSA, Wyoming
West: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV

SBC
East: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Florida International, Georgia St, Jacksonville St, James Madison, Liberty, Old Dominion
West: Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee St, New Mexico St, Sam Houston St, South Alabama, Texas St, UL Monroe, Western Kentucky

(03-07-2022 02:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t really see GT and Miami as schools the SEC needs to protect the Deep South. The Georgia Bulldogs own the state because UGA pulls a lot of students from the state and many of them stay instate after graduation while GT’s recruits out-of-state and most alumni don’t stick around. GT is trending more towards Vanderbilt or Duke than it is Alabama or Florida trajectory wise. Miami may be further south, but they aren’t Southern and I don’t see them as an essential piece.

To me, Louisville’s combined football and basketball programs make them the more rounded add with a better trajectory.

The SEC definitely sits in a nice spot where they can grab say FSU and Clemson, formulate a few different strategies, and see where things go.

I also don’t see UNC as a school with enough sway to muscle out Clemson for Duke. If Texas didn’t get to bring Texas Tech, the Tar Heels don’t get a plus one either.

The point Muskie is not to allow anyone else access to the markets at all. It's not my thinking though. ESPN doesn't want divided loyalties in the Deep South or Southwest. They dominate ad rates and don't want someone doing to them what ND does to large cities in the B1G footprint, give a cheaper back door to advertise in B1G markets than the B1G will offer.

Otherwise I agree with most of your assessments.

(03-07-2022 02:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t really see GT and Miami as schools the SEC needs to protect the Deep South. The Georgia Bulldogs own the state because UGA pulls a lot of students from the state and many of them stay instate after graduation while GT’s recruits out-of-state and most alumni don’t stick around. GT is trending more towards Vanderbilt or Duke than it is Alabama or Florida trajectory wise. Miami may be further south, but they aren’t Southern and I don’t see them as an essential piece.

To me, Louisville’s combined football and basketball programs make them the more rounded add with a better trajectory.

The SEC definitely sits in a nice spot where they can grab say FSU and Clemson, formulate a few different strategies, and see where things go.

I also don’t see UNC as a school with enough sway to muscle out Clemson for Duke. If Texas didn’t get to bring Texas Tech, the Tar Heels don’t get a plus one either.

Perhaps, but I'm not sure that you could say that Texas really wanted Texas Tech to be it's plus one, could you?

(03-07-2022 01:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

So, basically, the "Russia" view of college sports, right?

(03-07-2022 06:47 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 01:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

So, basically, the "Russia" view of college sports, right?

Except we lob cash, not missiles, and hope the women and children by tickets and attend, instead of fleeing the region. But as far as protecting Mother South's ad rates? Yeah, pretty much!

(03-07-2022 01:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

JR your list demonstrates just how important the ACC is for the protection of the SEC.

(03-07-2022 08:28 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 01:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

JR your list demonstrates just how important the ACC is for the protection of the SEC.

Well X, you can't protect the ACC if they are 40 million in arrears of the SEC and B1G. So, you merge the valuable core of the ACC with the SEC and pay them the difference. And you merge the less valuable members with the NB12 or vice versa and pay them slightly more than they presently make.

ESPN keeps 100% of the SE and SW markets and keeps FOX or anyone else out. When ND plays at home it's NBC and on the road for 3 games a year it's ESPN's games.

(03-07-2022 06:47 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  So, basically, the "Russia" view of college sports, right?

The B1G/SEC face off over the ACC is more like the WWF/WCW face off in the 90s, and they both have their eyes on Paul Heyman's ECW.

(03-07-2022 09:20 PM)Porcine Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 06:47 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  So, basically, the "Russia" view of college sports, right?

The B1G/SEC face off over the ACC is more like the WWF/WCW face off in the 90s, and they both have their eyes on Paul Heyman's ECW.

I see what you're saying. LOL

It isn't like I'm pining for ACC programs. However, I'm aware the landscape is quickly changing and even powerful conferences have to move to keep up. Even if that means we stay north of the Md./Va. line then so be it. In fact, that makes it even easier to move forward. Then ESPN can reorganize the SW and SE at their leisure. At that point Kansas becomes part of our plan to expand, as it helps our plains brethren to accept the creation of a true Eastern division for the Big Ten. After that, round off with the West Coast 6 from the PAC. That would be my preference IF we have to expand.

Something like this is what I have in mind:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer...999998&z=5

(03-07-2022 01:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-07-2022 02:40 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 11:14 AM)ken d Wrote:  Revenue distribution is the 800 pound gorilla all P5 schools and conferences must come to terms with in order to rationalize alignment and playoff strategy. The B1G and the SEC currently have a huge financial advantage they don't want to give up (and IMO they shouldn't have to) and that drives their positions regarding playoff formats. Here's a suggested solution. Spoiler alert: ACC fans may not be happy with this.

Either as a separate subdivision within the NCAA D-I or entirely independent of the NCAA, the five autonomous conferences and Notre Dame could rationally realign into four conferences within what I call the National College Football League. In the process, three additional G5 schools would win the last golden tickets, bringing the number of schools in this new league to 72. Unlike other proposals, however, I have not sought symmetry within and among conferences.

I suggest the B1G and SEC further expand by adding valuable properties from the ACC that are reasonably culturally and academically compatible. They would each end up with 21 members, organized into three 7 team divisions. The four ACC schools not taken by these two conferences would go to the Big 12, along with three additional AAC schools not already committed to join that league. This new Big 18 would be grouped in three 6 team divisions. The PAC would remain unchanged. One Big 12 member, Kansas, would be invited to the B1G.

Here is where it gets radical, in order to allow the B1G and SEC to maximize their post regular season revenues. Instead of a single CCG, each of these behemoths stage a 6 team conference championship tournament (CCT) for which they don't have to share revenues with anyone else. Participants are the two highest ranked division champs who get a first round bye plus the third highest ranked division champ and three at large teams. The third division champ and the highest ranked at large host first round games on their home field. The winners travel to the two champs with byes. The CCT championship is played at a neutral site (probably Indianapolis for the B1G and Atlanta for the SEC).

The Big 18 and PAC each have a 4 team CCT, with first round games hosted by the highest ranked division champs.

On New Year's day the B1G champ lays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 18 champ at the Sugar Bowl. The two winners then meet for the League Championship at Jerry World.

These are my suggested divisions:

B1G:
Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Kansas
Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia

SEC:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Texas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Kentucky
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt

Big 18:
Oklahoma St, Baylor, Kansas St, BYU, Texas Tech and Iowa State
TCU, UCF, Houston, Memphis, USF and SMU
West Virginia, Louisville, Pitt, Cincinnati, Boston College and Syracuse

PAC's two divisions remain unchanged

The regular season for these four conferences begins in what is now Week Zero. The four CCTs begin on Thanksgiving weekend to maximize exposure for those 8 first round games (2 games per conference). The B1G and SEC semis and the PAC and Big 18 finals are the following Saturday. A week later, the B1G championship is played at 12:00, the Army-Navy game at 4:00 and the SEC championship at 8:00PM

After compensating participating teams for their travel expenses, net revenues from the Four Team playoff in January are divided equally among the 72 schools in the league. Each of the four conferences in the League negotiate their own media contracts separately for their regular season and CCT games. No school should be worse off financially than they are currently, though some who are added to the B1G and SEC will get a significant pay raise. Most likely every one of the 72 schools should see a pay bump.

The fate of FBS schools not included in this new League, as well as the New Year's Bowls other than the Rose and Sugar, will be left to market forces to sort out.

At the end of the day, this arrangement results in 19 single elimination games after the 12 game regular season (16 CCT games, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship), compared to 8 games in the present system (5 GGGs, 2 CFP semis and a CFP championship). The regular season, including CCTs, is completed by the second Saturday in December, and the CFP keeps its current schedule, assuring an early January end to the season.

The more I think about it the more compelling the lineups appear. One caveat I see is if Ohio State takes control of the expansion process for the Big Ten. Then I might see them try to snag FSU and leave Kansas to another conference. OTOH, Kansas and Notre Dame more than make up the value of FSU and Clemson to the SEC. Also, FSU fans may not take so kindly to the Big Ten. If push comes to shove, they'd prefer keeping their rivalry with UF over a Big Ten-bound Miami.

Another complication is where UNC would ultimately end up. At minimum the Big Ten needs to first convince both Duke and Virginia (and probably Georgia Tech in addition to these) to convince UNC to jump their way. In any case the core of the ACC like where they are now.

I can see the argument for Wake to the SEC, just that I'm not sure their valuation would be enough for the 4-letter network.

Here's another possibility (crazy as it seems): UNC, Duke, UVA, Wake, Miami, GT and ND to Big Ten.

Yes, an R2 small private like Wake to Big Ten sounds crazy but then last July I saw this:

This was back when they were still talking about the Alliance. Ultimately, the scheduling portion of that idea didn't materialize because Ohio State put the kibosh on it but it gives you a sense of what has been going on behind the scenes. Whether UNC is valuable enough to be willing to take Wake as a tag-along is not clear. However, we are in new territory here. Old notions about how expansion works may be outdated in a new paradigm once SCOTUS rules on pay-for-play. With that said, the Big Ten can ill afford to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good when the next opportunity comes.

I suggest people read or re-read Jackie Sherrill's comments on the SEC's defensive expansion play for 1992. It will illustrate the lengths the SEC was willing to go to in order to protect its SE brand via expansion.

It is why I have mystified and these blog site pundits saying "they will never go past 16, ...20, ...24, etc. Of course, they were many of the same people who claimed it would never move past 12, that Texas and Oklahoma would never head to the SEC, and that academics would always seek better academic associations. Louisville to the ACC disproved the latter, but was a solid move.

Absent in most mega realignment scenarios is Louisville, as it is here. It's true that the Cardinals are likely the only school sharing a rivalry with an instate member of the SEC which isn't wanted by its SEC rival (except A&M fans, but not so much their administration). Georgia is tepid on Georgia Tech but their state legislature is not.

In 1992 the SEC was planning a move, purely defensive and wholly dependent upon a Big 10 move down the Eastern Seaboard, which would keep them out of the deep South. FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami cover the Deep South. Who then? The most valuable is Louisville, yeah Louisville, and it's not even close (ND excepted, and Kansas excluded since I'm talking schools in the ACC). Then it would be UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia, N.C. State, Wake Forest and this is accounting for potential basketball independence from the NCAA.

So as I see it the SEC's defensive strategy would be:

1. Protect the Deep South. It takes 4 schools to do this: Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, and Miami. This would be feasible but only 1 adds value which wasn't true in 1990-2.

2. Add 8. The four Deep South Schools plus Duke, UNC, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The B1G likely doesn't move on just non AAU NC State, or Louisville.

3. Kill B1G Desire. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia. Simply remove AAU schools from their path. At least this adss 20 million to the footprint and delivers dominance in Atlanta.

4. A modified kill of B1G Desire: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia which takes the 3 best academic schools in 2 new states and the most valuable Florida School.

5. Coup de Grace the Big 10's Desire: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia ending any value moves East and taking the next most valuable prize. How? Money and a division created just for them. Then offer Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa the final 4 slots.

The most likely IMO opinion is #4. It adds the most value while stopping a B1G incursion.

If the SEC was just seeking value it would be in order: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson in that order. No Notre Dame and you add North Carolina (counting a full value for indy hoops).

Imagine this new 8 team division of the SEC:

Ohio St, Michigan, Notre Dame, Florida St, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia. It completely decapitates the B1G and strips them of most of their value. Do it before the B1G contract is renewed and the remnants are then only worth about what the ACC remnants, the PAC and the NB12 are, enabling ESPN to pay SEC money to the entire new division.

The SEC would then have 9 of the top 11 schools ranked by their five year MSR (mean Sagarin rating). They could justify using their autonomy to hold an 8 team CCT to determine their champion at the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. The other four P5 champs would play their own tournament with the winner determined at the Rose Bowl. The two bowl winners meet for the national championship. The SEC keeps all the revenue from from its 7 game tournament, plus half of the national championship game.

The only problem is that I doubt those 8 schools would be willing to join the SEC even if the GoR issues could be hammered out. But it's fun to speculate about it.

The conference average 5 year Sagarin ratings would be (with the number of Top 20 teams in parentheses):

SEC...81 (12)
ACC...77 (1)
PAC...75 (3)
B12...75 (2)
B1G...73 (2)