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Poll: What will be JMU's conference record
This poll is closed.
8-0 0.54% 1 0.54%
7-1 1.08% 2 1.08%
6-2 3.23% 6 3.23%
5-3 10.22% 19 10.22%
4-4 26.34% 49 26.34%
3-5 31.18% 58 31.18%
2-6 19.89% 37 19.89%
1-7 4.84% 9 4.84%
0-8 2.69% 5 2.69%
Total 186 vote(s) 100%
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How many conference games does JMU win?
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Cnelson203 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:

Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl

Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Georgia Southern came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.

That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 04:10 PM by Cnelson203.)
03-01-2022 04:02 PM
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GATA Offline
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Post: #22
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:02 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:

Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl

Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Georgia State came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.

That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.
Wrong Georgia school....

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03-01-2022 04:08 PM
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Cnelson203 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
Fixed it. Thank you. I looked up the right records, and screwed up the memo.

I apologize to both schools
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 04:15 PM by Cnelson203.)
03-01-2022 04:11 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:02 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:

Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl

Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Georgia Southern came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.

That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.

App State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall were all gods among men in 1-AA football when they made the move to FBS. JMU is close to that caliber, but not quite the same I don't think. I do think they'll be very good if they can find a QB and an OL, though. The east is the best G5 division in the country, however, and that could make all the difference.
03-01-2022 04:26 PM
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bit_9 Online
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Post: #25
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
I'd put the o/u at 4. I think you hit 4 and that bodes well for recruiting as well. That's something solid to hang a hat on for year 1 and a tough schedule.
03-01-2022 04:33 PM
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rileylives Offline
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Post: #26
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
Actually, a 3.5 over/under would hit the nail right on the head.
03-01-2022 04:36 PM
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Usajags Offline
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Post: #27
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
JMU still has a 2 year transition period, correct? Or did that get adjusted somehow?
03-01-2022 04:40 PM
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hburg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:40 PM)Usajags Wrote:  JMU still has a 2 year transition period, correct? Or did that get adjusted somehow?
We will find out this summer. Per Kevin Warner.

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03-01-2022 04:53 PM
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Big Buds Offline
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Post: #29
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
I’m starting to rethink my vote for 2 SBC wins.
03-01-2022 04:59 PM
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Can't Tame the Lion Offline
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Post: #30
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
Don't underestimate the grind of playing a full FBS schedule with mostly FCS players, especially towards the end of the season.
03-01-2022 05:03 PM
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bit_9 Online
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Post: #31
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:36 PM)rileylives Wrote:  Actually, a 3.5 over/under would hit the nail right on the head.

ok. I don't bet and such so that makes more sense in driving a wager I would suspect. =]
03-01-2022 05:11 PM
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MarginalDuke Online
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Post: #32
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 05:03 PM)Cant Tame the Lion Wrote:  Don't underestimate the grind of playing a full FBS schedule with mostly FCS players, especially towards the end of the season.

The grind of the full schedule will be undeniable. However this team played 2 FCS seasons in one calendar year due to Covid and we had a near FBS-sized roster of scholarship players due to Covid scholarship boosts for FCS. Kind of a perfect storm for transitioning to soften the move, however challenges will exist.

If I recall, we beat ODU for many recruits over the past few years, so I guess ODU isn’t even good enough for “FCS players”. I’m kidding of course, but I would say this program has a lot of FBS caliber talent (recruits and FBS transfers)
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 05:27 PM by MarginalDuke.)
03-01-2022 05:23 PM
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TealNation Offline
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Post: #33
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
Depth will be an issue initially in FBS, so I'm thinking 2-4 wins.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 05:30 PM by TealNation.)
03-01-2022 05:28 PM
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We Are the Dukes of JMU Offline
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Post: #34
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(03-01-2022 04:02 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:

Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl

Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Georgia Southern came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.

That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.

App State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall were all gods among men in 1-AA football when they made the move to FBS. JMU is close to that caliber, but not quite the same I don't think. I do think they'll be very good if they can find a QB and an OL, though. The east is the best G5 division in the country, however, and that could make all the difference.

A couple of thoughts. First, it's a little hard to this JMU season to those App State or Georgia Southern seasons. JMU is in it's first transition year, while both of those schools were in their second transition year. On the one hand, JMU is helped by the covid exemption that allowed us to carry more than the FCS maximum scholarship limit, but on the other hand we've had less time to recruit FBS caliber players than either of those schools. Either way, it's not quite apples to apples.

Also, I would say that the recent histories of JMU, App State, and Georgia Southern weren't all that different at the time they made the move. Both schools had more championships than JMU historically, but weren't necessarily stronger teams at the time of transition. Marshall is the exception. Here's each program's last five seasons in FCS/I-AA...

JMU
12-2 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
7-1 (Semifinal loss, covid season)
14-2 (Championship loss - NDSU)
9-4 (Second round loss)
14-1 (Championship loss - NDSU)

Georgia Southern
5-4 (No playoffs, ineligible)
10-4 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
11-3 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
10-5 (Semifinal loss)
5-6 (No playoffs)

App State
4-8 (No playoffs, ineligible)
8-4 (Second round loss)
8-4 (Second round loss)
10-3 (Quarterfinal loss)
11-3 (Semifinal loss)

Marshall
15-0 (National championship win)
12-3 (Championship loss)
12-2 (Semifinal loss)
11-4 (Championship loss)
12-3 (Championship win)

I would say that JMU's program was about as strong at the time of transition as any SBC school but Marshall. Georgia Southern and JMU both just kept running into the NDSU buzz saw in our final FCS seasons. Marshall was the equivalent of the NDSU buzz saw. JMU only lost more than one regular season game in one of our last five FCS seasons.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2022 05:36 PM by We Are the Dukes of JMU.)
03-01-2022 05:30 PM
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TealNation Offline
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Post: #35
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 05:03 PM)Cant Tame the Lion Wrote:  Don't underestimate the grind of playing a full FBS schedule with mostly FCS players, especially towards the end of the season.
Yeah, my thinking as well. Depth will be an issue initially in FBS, so I'm thinking 2-4 wins.
03-01-2022 05:33 PM
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #36
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
I remember the ODU transition very well. The Monarchs were 11-2 in 2012, and as a fan, I went into the 2013 transition year with high expectations. However, in the two transition years ODU went 8-4 and 6-6, and the 8-4 record is misleading. We only played five FBS teams and one of them was Idaho, which we won. The other four games were losses to North Carolina (they absolutely killed us), Pitt, Maryland, and ECU. In 2014 the Monarchs played a full but relatively weak C-USA schedule as their final transition year with their six wins over Hampton, Eastern Michigan, Rice, FIU, FAU and LA Tech.

What I am trying to get at is that these two seasons were a very real wakeup call for many of us Monarchs fans. Frankly, I think our transition schedules were much easier than what JMU will be facing, and I believe the Dukes will find the transition even a little more difficult than we did, and likely more difficult than they expect.

Hey, I've been wrong many times in the past, and I am sure I will be also in the future, but I think I am right about this one.

Anyway, my JMU friends, we are embarking on this voyage together, and there may well be some rough seas ahead. Here's to many enjoyable years as Sun Belt rivals. Cheers, all. 04-cheers
03-01-2022 05:35 PM
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APPrising Offline
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Post: #37
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
Normally depth would be an issue, but think JMU is already at full FBS roster due to increased Covid numbers of players. If they have a strong player development program and have some consistency with players that win, they should be fine.
03-01-2022 07:36 PM
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Saint3333 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
JMU beats a team that finishes in the top 5 and loses to one in the bottom three.
03-01-2022 09:18 PM
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JoeJag Offline
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Post: #39
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 12:26 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I can see them going 2-6

5 wins max.

Yep, 2-6.
03-01-2022 09:31 PM
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KickItToScotty Offline
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Post: #40
RE: How many conference games does JMU win?
(03-01-2022 04:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(03-01-2022 04:02 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:

Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl

Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Georgia Southern came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.

That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.

App State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall were all gods among men in 1-AA football when they made the move to FBS. JMU is close to that caliber, but not quite the same I don't think. I do think they'll be very good if they can find a QB and an OL, though. The east is the best G5 division in the country, however, and that could make all the difference.

I'd say NDSU and JMU have been gods among men for the most part since 2016(well, beyond that for NDSU) in FCS. Don't put any stock in to the spring 2020 season, that season was a total joke.

It will be very interesting to see how it pans out, lots of things making it impossible to truly compare to any past transitions. Especially with how strong the current Sun Belt, and especially Sun Belt East, is. Plus JMU was going to have quite a few question marks this year even without a conference move. Of course without the move those question marks probably just amount to wondering if we might be more likely to lose one or two before we run in to NDSU.

I think 3 or 4 wins are the most reasonable and safest picks, but a little off in either direction wouldn't be a huge surprise.
03-01-2022 09:49 PM
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