(03-01-2022 04:26 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: (03-01-2022 04:02 PM)Cnelson203 Wrote: In looking at history with SB teams with similar winning tradition transitions, it looks promising for JMU. If my research is right:
Marshall entered FBS in 1997 and went 8-1 (MAC) and won the conference championship and played in Motor City Bowl
Appalachian State came to SB in 2014 and went 6-2 losing only to Georgia Southern and South Alabama.
Georgia Southern came to SB in 2014 took home all the marbles, going 8-0 winning the conference championship but was not yet eligible for a bowl win. Looking forward to our match up in Harrisonburg.
That's a phenomenal record of success, and I recognize that the SB is quite a bit stronger today. But if history is any judge, then anything LESS than 4-4 would be a stumble out of the gate...but the East is going to be tough for all of us.
App State, Georgia Southern, and Marshall were all gods among men in 1-AA football when they made the move to FBS. JMU is close to that caliber, but not quite the same I don't think. I do think they'll be very good if they can find a QB and an OL, though. The east is the best G5 division in the country, however, and that could make all the difference.
A couple of thoughts. First, it's a little hard to this JMU season to those App State or Georgia Southern seasons. JMU is in it's first transition year, while both of those schools were in their second transition year. On the one hand, JMU is helped by the covid exemption that allowed us to carry more than the FCS maximum scholarship limit, but on the other hand we've had less time to recruit FBS caliber players than either of those schools. Either way, it's not quite apples to apples.
Also, I would say that the recent histories of JMU, App State, and Georgia Southern weren't all that different at the time they made the move. Both schools had more championships than JMU historically, but weren't necessarily stronger teams at the time of transition. Marshall is the exception. Here's each program's last five seasons in FCS/I-AA...
JMU
12-2 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
7-1 (Semifinal loss, covid season)
14-2 (Championship loss - NDSU)
9-4 (Second round loss)
14-1 (Championship loss - NDSU)
Georgia Southern
5-4 (No playoffs, ineligible)
10-4 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
11-3 (Semifinal loss - NDSU)
10-5 (Semifinal loss)
5-6 (No playoffs)
App State
4-8 (No playoffs, ineligible)
8-4 (Second round loss)
8-4 (Second round loss)
10-3 (Quarterfinal loss)
11-3 (Semifinal loss)
Marshall
15-0 (National championship win)
12-3 (Championship loss)
12-2 (Semifinal loss)
11-4 (Championship loss)
12-3 (Championship win)
I would say that JMU's program was about as strong at the time of transition as any SBC school but Marshall. Georgia Southern and JMU both just kept running into the NDSU buzz saw in our final FCS seasons. Marshall was the equivalent of the NDSU buzz saw. JMU only lost more than one regular season game in one of our last five FCS seasons.