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Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-27-2022 08:22 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 06:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 06:20 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-24-2022 12:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-24-2022 06:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  So what we see is not the expansion of the SEC but the development of a new entity (spearheaded by the SEC).....a super conference.
Once this super conference is built, then it would have to be divided into divisions/pods for scheduling?

If ESPN is indeed behind the new super conference as you have alluded wouldn't that leave them vulnerable to charges of collusion?

Not if it is done in compliance with a change in law, especially if it is initiated by a conference, or conferences.

I have heard some talk, not from usual or any official sources, that football and basketball may actually be handled as separate entities and under 2 different organizations in a pay for play world. It's just speculative conversation but for a school like North Carolina it would solve some issues. You wouldn't have to be in a football conference with Duke and Wake to be in a basketball conference with them. I can see something like that approach simplifying fiscal oversight and governance. Do it for baseball as well and including schools like Rice and Dallas Baptist becomes possible. I see positive aspects to this. However, just a rumor while separation is a potential reality.

When we see this type of legislation being promoted by one of more conferences and to actually have it introduced in Congress, what sort of time frame are we looking at? It probably wouldn't be done this year (election year, wouldn't want to make too many voters mad).
I wonder if this type of legislation would have to incorporate a pay-for-play structure that also required Congressional approval. Would the schools have to cede governance to Congress or could the schools maintain the ability to govern themselves?
I understand that this is all speculative conversation or perhaps just a rumor, but it needs to be addressed if for no other reason to understand just how much time is involved to get to get it where it needs to be.
07-coffee3
X, The Supreme Court has made pay for play as a reality fairly clear in remarks delivered to the NCAA over NIL. They were being polite to say get your houses in order. There is another pending case which could be ruled on this Summer.

I'm reasonably sure conversations began between the SEC and some ACC schools a few days after the Texas and Oklahoma news. I'd say as quiet as things have been lately, and with the stall on playoff expansion that all of this is being worked on now behind the scenes.

I see no action by Congress election year or not, though the party in power will be exceedingly in favor of pay for play as has a conservative Supreme Court. Congress will let the SCOTUS be the tip of the spear on this matter.

Now whether we have a new entity that encompasses all revenue sports or they are handled severely is yet to be determined. I see merit in both approaches. There is less confusion to fans to have it under one roof, but likely better governance for each sport to manage each independently of the others. They will after all become businesses.

How soon? You could see football starting to take shape with more advanced announcements this summer. Hoops will lag. And implementation anywhere from 2 to 4 years. We'll see.

I really think this has to be decided before playoff structure is determined.

And, I expect schools to remain non-profit and in charge of non-revenue sports and Athletic Departments bifurcated into a for profit taxable wing acting as a separate entity and actually supporting the schools by a licensing fee which will support Title IX sports and the non-revenue portion under the auspices of the academic entity. The fee which supports Title IX would reduce tax liability for the for-profit sports.

Darn.

Every time I write a check to the Rams Club, I have to identify the contribution to add to my "home" points or my "away" points.
Contributions to add to my home points (which can help improve my football seating) are NOT tax deductible. But if I were only wanting to gain better seating only for away games those contributions WOULD be tax deductible.
The problem is this.....when I go to UVa or Georgia Tech all of the away seating is located in the same sections. If I really wanted better seats, I could just go to a ticket service and buy the best available. Crazy!
Even worse contribution requirements across all levels of the Rams Club are increasing by an average of 20% this year.
There is no advantage to the fan (any school) other than to have some tiny influence, for athletic departments to continue to operate as non-profit entities.

Stub Hub's best tickets are cheaper on the whole than my mandatory $1200 donation with an additional $1100 for a pair. Now that tickets are electronic you can't pick up a pair outside the stadium either. Cable plus streaming are a fraction of the total cost, good for all sports and Stub Hub gives us better seats for must attend games and we still come out better and we can buy tickets with friends and sit with them.

Perhaps now you can get better seating by donating to nonprofit sports?
01-27-2022 02:27 PM
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Thiefery Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
in this super SEC division less concept.. will my Horns continue to play ou, pig and aggy yearly? Cause that's all I care about
01-28-2022 01:53 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 01:53 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  in this super SEC division less concept.. will my Horns continue to play ou, pig and aggy yearly? Cause that's all I care about

Easily. The concept would consist of likely 4-5 annual games and 4-5 rotating ones. Annuals would consist of those games most important to the school and the rotating games would keep each year fresh. Which also drives ticket interest. So, Arkansas, Oklahoma, A&M and even LSU might be included. Protecting key games is the focus and variety for other games the spice.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2022 02:10 AM by JRsec.)
01-28-2022 02:07 AM
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Post: #44
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
SoCon 2.0 sounds peachy.

Going to be difficult to choose just 5 for some people.
01-28-2022 12:41 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 12:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  SoCon 2.0 sounds peachy.

Going to be difficult to choose just 5 for some people.

Unlike most, I think a few privates will become basketball only under pay for play. I think it is reasonable for 2 possibly 3 to choose other options, or perhaps seek an all but football consideration. We'll see.
01-28-2022 12:54 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 12:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  SoCon 2.0 sounds peachy.

Going to be difficult to choose just 5 for some people.

Unlike most, I think a few privates will become basketball only under pay for play. I think it is reasonable for 2 possibly 3 to choose other options, or perhaps seek an all but football consideration. We'll see.

So do you see room for a non-football Vanderbilt & Duke in the SEC Mega Conference?

Are they in addition to 24 football schools, or would they have 22 for football?
01-28-2022 01:49 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 01:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So do you see room for a non-football Vanderbilt & Duke in the SEC Mega Conference?

Are they in addition to 24 football schools, or would they have 22 for football?


If you had to pick teams who would go in for all sports but football it would be Vanderbilt and Duke. While neither lack for money, both severely lack for football will and leadership. Wake Forest may be tiny, but they have the will to win and good leadership. It's plausible lil ole Wake could grow a respectable t-shirt following in the Piedmont Triad ... there's really no other sports game in town. Also Wake has the money to aggressively expand its enrollment should it choose to.
01-28-2022 02:10 PM
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Post: #48
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 12:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  SoCon 2.0 sounds peachy.

Going to be difficult to choose just 5 for some people.

Unlike most, I think a few privates will become basketball only under pay for play. I think it is reasonable for 2 possibly 3 to choose other options, or perhaps seek an all but football consideration. We'll see.

I'm not sure Duke wouldn't do that. Syracuse, Boston College and Wake Forest would be candidates as well. They could make the Big East REALLY big. It would be harder for Vandy being in a football state and already getting SEC money.
01-29-2022 11:44 AM
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 02:07 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 01:53 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  in this super SEC division less concept.. will my Horns continue to play ou, pig and aggy yearly? Cause that's all I care about

Easily. The concept would consist of likely 4-5 annual games and 4-5 rotating ones. Annuals would consist of those games most important to the school and the rotating games would keep each year fresh. Which also drives ticket interest. So, Arkansas, Oklahoma, A&M and even LSU might be included. Protecting key games is the focus and variety for other games the spice.

How would you do the rotations?

I can think of a number of schools that we would like to play on an every other year basis or even a once every four year basis.

Idealy we would have Clemson, WF, and UNC every year. However we need to be playing UVa/VT and FSU/Duke every other year.

On a once every four year basis old ACC or old SoCon foes would be best say South Carolina, Miami, Mississippi State, Auburn.

That would take us to 6 games. You could then rotate out of the entire group or create a pool of North, South, and West.

If we had the following over four years we could add 7K seats to CF Stadium and bring it up to 66K:

Bold - Home Game

UNC, UNC, UNC, UNC
WF, WF, WF, WF
Clemson, CU, CU, CU
VT, UVa, VT, UVa
Duke, FSU, Duke FSU
SC, Miami, MSU, Auburn
Pitt, Louisville, BC, ND, Syracuse (North Group)
TAMU, Arkansas, Mizzou, Vandy (West Group)
Tennessee[/b][/b]Bama, LSU, Florida (South Group)
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2022 08:49 PM by Statefan.)
01-29-2022 08:48 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-27-2022 06:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  And, I expect schools to remain non-profit and in charge of non-revenue sports and Athletic Departments bifurcated into a for profit taxable wing acting as a separate entity and actually supporting the schools by a licensing fee which will support Title IX sports and the non-revenue portion under the auspices of the academic entity. The fee which supports Title IX would reduce tax liability for the for-profit sports.

If revenue sports become for profit entities separate from the universities they are licensed by, and the athletes in those sports are all contract employees of those separate entities, what role do they play in Title IX?

Wouldn't Title IX just apply to the non-revenue sports in which the athletes are compensated by scholarships only? That would effectively eliminate a lot of sports that nobody really cares about, or have them revert to non-scholarship club status.

Athletes in the for profit sports needn't be scholarship athletes any more. They would pay for their own room and board out of their salaries. The question for me is whether they would also be required to be students and pay their own tuition, or whether being students is a condition of employment paid for by the entity that pays their salary. Or maybe they don't all have to be students, but tuition is a tax-free perk they can take advantage of if they want it.

This is an entirely new world, and anything about it can now be on the table. Sacred cows can be slaughtered and traditions broken.
01-30-2022 09:46 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-30-2022 09:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 06:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  And, I expect schools to remain non-profit and in charge of non-revenue sports and Athletic Departments bifurcated into a for profit taxable wing acting as a separate entity and actually supporting the schools by a licensing fee which will support Title IX sports and the non-revenue portion under the auspices of the academic entity. The fee which supports Title IX would reduce tax liability for the for-profit sports.

If revenue sports become for profit entities separate from the universities they are licensed by, and the athletes in those sports are all contract employees of those separate entities, what role do they play in Title IX?

Wouldn't Title IX just apply to the non-revenue sports in which the athletes are compensated by scholarships only? That would effectively eliminate a lot of sports that nobody really cares about, or have them revert to non-scholarship club status.

Athletes in the for profit sports needn't be scholarship athletes any more. They would pay for their own room and board out of their salaries. The question for me is whether they would also be required to be students and pay their own tuition, or whether being students is a condition of employment paid for by the entity that pays their salary. Or maybe they don't all have to be students, but tuition is a tax-free perk they can take advantage of if they want it.

This is an entirely new world, and anything about it can now be on the table. Sacred cows can be slaughtered and traditions broken.

They have no role Ken, which is why any contribution from the for-profit entity would be tax deductible, and therefore the salve for most academics to accept the arrangement. And it saves face for the government. And that is the cologne the purists will drench themselves in to cover the whiffs of professionalism which they detest, especially since most snobbery is born out of the union of denial and hypocrisy.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2022 10:54 AM by JRsec.)
01-30-2022 10:52 AM
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Post: #52
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-30-2022 09:46 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 06:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  And, I expect schools to remain non-profit and in charge of non-revenue sports and Athletic Departments bifurcated into a for profit taxable wing acting as a separate entity and actually supporting the schools by a licensing fee which will support Title IX sports and the non-revenue portion under the auspices of the academic entity. The fee which supports Title IX would reduce tax liability for the for-profit sports.

If revenue sports become for profit entities separate from the universities they are licensed by, and the athletes in those sports are all contract employees of those separate entities, what role do they play in Title IX?

Wouldn't Title IX just apply to the non-revenue sports in which the athletes are compensated by scholarships only? That would effectively eliminate a lot of sports that nobody really cares about, or have them revert to non-scholarship club status.

Athletes in the for profit sports needn't be scholarship athletes any more. They would pay for their own room and board out of their salaries. The question for me is whether they would also be required to be students and pay their own tuition, or whether being students is a condition of employment paid for by the entity that pays their salary. Or maybe they don't all have to be students, but tuition is a tax-free perk they can take advantage of if they want it.

This is an entirely new world, and anything about it can now be on the table. Sacred cows can be slaughtered and traditions broken.

If they don't have to be students, the whole house of cards collapses. At that point, it really has no connection to the university. Its just another minor league.
02-01-2022 08:33 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-29-2022 08:48 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 02:07 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 01:53 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  in this super SEC division less concept.. will my Horns continue to play ou, pig and aggy yearly? Cause that's all I care about

Easily. The concept would consist of likely 4-5 annual games and 4-5 rotating ones. Annuals would consist of those games most important to the school and the rotating games would keep each year fresh. Which also drives ticket interest. So, Arkansas, Oklahoma, A&M and even LSU might be included. Protecting key games is the focus and variety for other games the spice.

How would you do the rotations?

I can think of a number of schools that we would like to play on an every other year basis or even a once every four year basis.

Idealy we would have Clemson, WF, and UNC every year. However we need to be playing UVa/VT and FSU/Duke every other year.

On a once every four year basis old ACC or old SoCon foes would be best say South Carolina, Miami, Mississippi State, Auburn.

That would take us to 6 games. You could then rotate out of the entire group or create a pool of North, South, and West.

If we had the following over four years we could add 7K seats to CF Stadium and bring it up to 66K:

Bold - Home Game

UNC, WF, UNC, WF
Clemson, Georgia, CU, UGA
VT, UVa, VT, UVa
Duke, FSU, Duke FSU
SC, Miami, MSU, Auburn
Pitt, Louisville, BC, ND, Syracuse (North Group)
TAMU, Arkansas, Mizzou, Vandy (West Group)
Tennessee[/b][/b]Bama, LSU, Florida (South Group)

While I am positive that UNC would love to play in a division that consists of nothing but scout team A and scout team B, I would imagine that more than a few E$PN execs would be losing their groceries 03-puke at a division that would basically be nothing but preseason games .
And while Clemson fans might prefer playing their scout teams to playing some ACC teams, if Clemson were in the SEC, most Clemson fans would want to see the Tigers play SEC opponents.

I have an acceptable modification for both teams above.
02-02-2022 02:01 PM
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Post: #54
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-29-2022 11:44 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:41 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  SoCon 2.0 sounds peachy.

Going to be difficult to choose just 5 for some people.

Unlike most, I think a few privates will become basketball only under pay for play. I think it is reasonable for 2 possibly 3 to choose other options, or perhaps seek an all but football consideration. We'll see.

I'm not sure Duke wouldn't do that. Syracuse, Boston College and Wake Forest would be candidates as well. They could make the Big East REALLY big. It would be harder for Vandy being in a football state and already getting SEC money.

...something tells me that once the 'door is busted down' regarding a football-only 'SuperAlliance' (which will be the SEC and the BIG10, and the other top teams outside of these), they may well institute specific criteria to be a 'member' (i.e., stadium size, monetary fees, etc.), which might well leave out some of the less football-centric schools, such as Vandy and Duke.

The SEC, BIG10, etc. would then be for 'Olympic sports' only, but with that, the BBall bluebloods (i.e., such as Duke, the Big East, etc.) could well start THEIR own 'SuperAlliance' completely separate from the football version AND the traditional conferences. With that, schools which are strong in BOTH sports could be members of each sport 'Alliance'...

Of course, the 'powers that be' running the SEC, BIG10, etc. would require some soft landing spots in these Alliances, lest they round up the legal teams to 'preserve their conference'...
02-02-2022 05:36 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-28-2022 02:10 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 01:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So do you see room for a non-football Vanderbilt & Duke in the SEC Mega Conference?

Are they in addition to 24 football schools, or would they have 22 for football?


If you had to pick teams who would go in for all sports but football it would be Vanderbilt and Duke. While neither lack for money, both severely lack for football will and leadership. Wake Forest may be tiny, but they have the will to win and good leadership. It's plausible lil ole Wake could grow a respectable t-shirt following in the Piedmont Triad ... there's really no other sports game in town. Also Wake has the money to aggressively expand its enrollment should it choose to.

All that you have written is true....somewhat.
Wake Forest has been around since 1834, why would they aggressively expand enrollment now just to join a football conference?
Also Wake has been in Winston-Salem for almost 70 years......more t-shirt fans?

It does not sound that there is any room in the SEC mega-conference for any school that can't pack in a large crowd for football. I guess the smaller stadium schools in the SEC should be looking over their shoulders, too?
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2022 06:16 AM by XLance.)
02-03-2022 06:15 AM
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Post: #56
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(02-03-2022 06:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 02:10 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 01:49 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So do you see room for a non-football Vanderbilt & Duke in the SEC Mega Conference?

Are they in addition to 24 football schools, or would they have 22 for football?


If you had to pick teams who would go in for all sports but football it would be Vanderbilt and Duke. While neither lack for money, both severely lack for football will and leadership. Wake Forest may be tiny, but they have the will to win and good leadership. It's plausible lil ole Wake could grow a respectable t-shirt following in the Piedmont Triad ... there's really no other sports game in town. Also Wake has the money to aggressively expand its enrollment should it choose to.

All that you have written is true....somewhat.
Wake Forest has been around since 1834, why would they aggressively expand enrollment now just to join a football conference?
Also Wake has been in Winston-Salem for almost 70 years......more t-shirt fans?

It does not sound that there is any room in the SEC mega-conference for any school that can't pack in a large crowd for football. I guess the smaller stadium schools in the SEC should be looking over their shoulders, too?

Wherever you would draw the line, most smaller stadiums in the SEC are just bigger than the ones in the ACC. Wake brings up the rear with the smallest stadium in the entire P5.

100+
Texas A&M, Kyle Field = 102,733
Tennessee, Neyland Stadium = 102,455
LSU, Tiger Stadium = 102,321
Alabama, Bryant-Denny Stadium = 100,077

90+
Georgia, Sanford Stadium = 92,746

80+
Florida, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium = 88,548
Auburn, Jordan-Hare Stadium = 87,451
Clemson, Memorial Stadium = 81,500

70+
Florida State, Doak-Campbell Stadium = 79,560
South Carolina, Williams-Brice Stadium = 77,559
Arkansas, Razorback Stadium = 76,000

60+
Pitt, Heinz Field = 68,400
Virginia Tech, Lane Stadium = 65,632
Miami, Hard Rock Stadium = 64,767
Ole Miss, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium = 64,038
Missouri, Memorial Stadium = 61,620
Virginia, Scott Stadium = 61,500
Mississippi State, Davis Wade Stadium = 61,337
Kentucky, Kroger Field = 61,000; Louisville, Cardinal Stadium = 61,000

50+
NC State, Carter-Finley Stadium = 58,000
Georgia Tech, Bobby Dodd Stadium = 55,000
North Carolina, Kenan Stadium = 50,500

40+
Syracuse, Carrier Dome = 49,057
Boston College, Alumni Stadium = 44,500
Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Stadium = 40,550
Duke, Wallace Wade Stadium = 40,004

30+
Wake Forest, Truist Field = 31,500
02-03-2022 10:16 AM
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
It's one thing to have seats, it's another to fill them.

Pitt averaged 45,400 for 21
Miami averaged 43,500
Louisville averaged 43,570
Mizzou averaged 46,200
UNC averaged 48,000
MSU averages 49,430
NC State averages 54,510
Kentucky averaged 56,140
Ole Miss averaged 56,230

If you are attempting a split, the only question is where VT goes.

Texas, OU, LSU, TAMU, Auburn, Bama, TN, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, FSU, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina make a tidy 14 with filled seating from 75K to 105K.

VT is the tweener at 65K because Pitt and Miami never average more than 50-52K in a year and to do that Pitt has to host PSU and Miami has to host a good FSU or a good Florida team. If you push VT down, you get VT, NC State, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Pitt, Miss State, Miami, Kentucky, UNC, GT, Louis, and UVa as 12 that seat on paper 50-65 but in reality usually host 43-60K.

I really don't know what to do about BC, Syracuse, WF, Duke, and Vandy. Of these five Wake is the most committed to football. Duke and Vandy are not committed at all.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2022 07:53 PM by Statefan.)
02-03-2022 07:19 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(02-03-2022 07:19 PM)Statefan Wrote:  It's one thing to have seats, it's another to fill them.

Pitt averaged 45,400 for 21
Miami averaged 43,500
Louisville averaged 43,570
Mizzou averaged 46,200
UNC averaged 48,000
MSU averages 49,430
NC State averages 54,510
Kentucky averaged 56,140
Ole Miss averaged 56,230

If you are attempting a split, the only question is where VT goes.

Texas, OU, LSU, TAMU, Auburn, Bama, TN, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, FSU, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina make a tidy 14 with filled seating from 75K to 105K.

VT is the tweener at 65K because Pitt and Miami never average more than 50-52K in a year and to do that Pitt has to host PSU and Miami has to host a good FSU or a good Florida team. If you push VT down, you get VT, NC State, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Pitt, Miss State, Miami, Kentucky, UNC, GT, Louis, and UVa as 12 that seat on paper 50-65 but in reality usually host 43-60K.

I really don't know what to do about BC, Syracuse, WF, Duke, and Vandy. Of these five Wake is the most committed to football. Duke and Vandy are not committed at all.

If you were going to split the combined SEC and ACC, there would have to be exceptions made for the attendance criteria.

This I think works.
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Tennessee

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, UVa, Virginia Tech, Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mizzou, Louisville
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2022 08:32 PM by XLance.)
02-03-2022 08:31 PM
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(02-03-2022 08:31 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-03-2022 07:19 PM)Statefan Wrote:  It's one thing to have seats, it's another to fill them.

Pitt averaged 45,400 for 21
Miami averaged 43,500
Louisville averaged 43,570
Mizzou averaged 46,200
UNC averaged 48,000
MSU averages 49,430
NC State averages 54,510
Kentucky averaged 56,140
Ole Miss averaged 56,230

If you are attempting a split, the only question is where VT goes.

Texas, OU, LSU, TAMU, Auburn, Bama, TN, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, FSU, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina make a tidy 14 with filled seating from 75K to 105K.

VT is the tweener at 65K because Pitt and Miami never average more than 50-52K in a year and to do that Pitt has to host PSU and Miami has to host a good FSU or a good Florida team. If you push VT down, you get VT, NC State, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Pitt, Miss State, Miami, Kentucky, UNC, GT, Louis, and UVa as 12 that seat on paper 50-65 but in reality usually host 43-60K.

I really don't know what to do about BC, Syracuse, WF, Duke, and Vandy. Of these five Wake is the most committed to football. Duke and Vandy are not committed at all.

If you were going to split the combined SEC and ACC, there would have to be exceptions made for the attendance criteria.

This I think works.
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Tennessee

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, UVa, Virginia Tech, Carolina, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Miami, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mizzou, Louisville

That works.

ACC West - Mizzou, Vandy, Louisville, KY, Pitt
ACC South - Miami, GT, UNC, NC State, Duke
ACC North - WF, VT, UVa, BC, Syracuse

SEC West - Texas, OU, TAMU, LSU, Arkansas
SEC South - Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Tennessee, Auburn
SEC East - Florida, FSU, Georgia, Clemson, SC

That gets you past the 30,000-40,000 tickets per home game differential that is so difficult to negotiate.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2022 09:47 PM by Statefan.)
02-03-2022 09:44 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Finebaum predicts some will form "exit strategy" so they can join the SEC
(01-26-2022 06:02 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the Super SEC ends up going to 24 teams and the Big 10 follows, I doubt anyone is going to have room for ND in the OOC as they’ll likely be playing 10 conference games. I think ND lands in the Super Big 10 simply due to lack of potential opponents. ND isn’t going to settle for independence if it means playing the Big 12, ACC, and PAC 12 leftovers. It’s a tough pill to swallow but the Big 10 is going to have the schools they want to play.

Looking around, I think these schools are likely all in hard spot:
ACC: BC, Cuse, WF
Big 12: Cincinnati, WVU, UCF, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU
PAC 12: Washington St, Oregon St, Utah

Bubble:
ACC: Pitt, Duke, GT, L’ville, NC St, Miami
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa St
PAC 12: Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St

Likely in a Super Conference:
ACC: Florida St, Clemson, VT, UVA, UNC
Big 12: None
Pac 12: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington

Alternatively, I think the SEC could end up as entity unto its own (with the addition of some ACC schools) while the Big Ten, PAC 12, ACC, Big 12, & ND stage their own playoff.

No doubt the pursuit of money is a very powerful force in society, and that is true of academia and intercollegiate sports as well. But I believe many fans continue to underestimate the power of another force -- inertia -- which dominates academics' behavior.

I do see the top football schools - that is to say the P5 - becoming a separate entity, whether that is inside the NCAA or outside of it. I don't see any of them being left behind in a pay for play world, and I don't see a P2 acting separately. At the same time, I doubt we'll see three 24 team conferences. I don't even think we will wind up with symmetry in conference/division size. But I do think that both the SEC and B1G will grow with culturally compatible brands, and that will result in a reduction from P5 to P4. I think the ACC is the conference that will have to die for this to happen.

I could see the B1G taking in ACC schools (including Notre Dame) as a new 7 team division, bringing them to 21 teams in total. The teams I would guess would be considered academically compatible to the B1G and valuable enough from a brand standpoint to justify that growth are: Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, Pitt, Georgia Tech and Duke. I think those schools would also be willing and interested in staying together.

For its part, I think the SEC would accept Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Virginia Tech and Kansas, creating these 7 team divisions:

Clemson, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State and Kentucky
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vandy
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Arkansas, Missouri and Kansas

The PAC remains unchanged thanks to geography and academic snobbery. That leaves The Big 12 to absorb the remaining four ACC schools as part of an 8 team eastern division:

West Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, UCF and USF.

The western division consists of:
Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston and BYU.

These four conferences have their own postseason play, with the three conferences of 16 or more teams having a three game, four team CCT in the first two weeks of December. On New Year's Day, the B1G champ plays the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl and the SEC champ plays the Big 12 champ in the Sugar Bowl. The winners of those two bowls play each other for the championship of whatever they call this new, separate division.

The other four NY6 bowls match 8 non champions on or around New Year's Day. All six rotate as hosts of the National Championship game.

The 70 teams in this division will be required to play 10 games against division opponents, and no more than 2 games against other NCAA FBS schools (but no FCS schools).

Most important, each of these four conferences (and all other conferences) make their own rules about player compensation, mobility and eligibility, and are responsible for policing compliance with their own rules.
02-07-2022 09:46 AM
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