(05-14-2022 10:40 AM)bear2be2 Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 09:06 PM)Endless Purple Wrote:  

(05-13-2022 02:58 PM)bear2be2 Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:48 PM)Endless Purple Wrote:  Second what Tcufrog86 said on the assistants. Too much loyalty lately. Looking back when TCU would make a major change to OC, there were 2 major changes. First going to Fuentes (Memphis fans should be familiar) and TCU jumped up to dominate the MWC and win the Rose Bowl. The second major change was Cumbie/Meachum leading into the 14/15 seasons. When open to real change, TCU did well, but Patterson was not know for doing that unless forced. This past time, he refused change so the head coach changed.

I find it interesting see all the comments on power rankings with TCU down low given history of success over different periods. Most people just think of the TCU of the 70s & 80s and assume that is who the program is. Baylor is being rated highly for only a few good years in a row (3 coaches), TCU has had good years for over 20 years (2 coaches). TCU just kept one for a long time, which Baylor has yet to do. OSU's previous coach only had one 9 win season, none better (Miles), so what happens if Gundy leaves? Call back Pat Jones or Bob Simmons....

I think there's a general feeling that the TCU program has stagnated. As good as y'all were before the Big 12 and in the early years after joining, y'all have kind of sunk into a level and brand of mediocrity that can be hard to claw out of. Y'all still beat us and Texas regularly, so props for that, but TCU has been basically a five- to seven-win team for going on seven years now, and that changes the way people perceive your program.

That perception is only going to be changed by winning at a high level. The reason Baylor gets credit is that each of its last three coaches have had seasons where they won at least 11 games and competed for or won the Big 12 title. I like Sonny Dykes and think he will do well at TCU, but I see him having a Mike Leach ceiling. I just don't think you can win at a championship level consistently running the Air Raid. We'll see if he can prove that wrong.

But I think TCU definitely needed some new blood and excitement injected into its program. Patterson, while a legendary defensive coach in his time, had run his course.

I guess 5-7 win team for the past 7 years is accurate if you do not count the couple 11 wins seasons.

I guess a lot of what I am curious about is the guidelines people are using. It seems most only look at the past 4-5 years for long terms futures. BU and OSU seem to be near the top. TCU has an overall higher winning percent than both and more history than both.

BU is on their third coach, what about a fourth? how long will winning coaches last - see 1997-2007. UH has had success under several coaches as well with Sumlin, Herman, and Holgerson but are not shown to be a top pick by most all.

or the reply by CitrusUCF - with the Patterson era being an aberration even though many coaches have had success at TCU. Including in the SWC so P5 is not new, as with BU and UH also in the SWC.

Both replies help in understanding how people are evaluating things. I also am not sold on Dykes. I think it comes down to what he learned in his previous stops. I think if he goes like Mack Brown as more CEO and brings in great staff, TCU will do very well. If he sticks to just coaching the team, then on to the next. Personally, I think TCU has one of the highest upsides based on revenue, history, current talent levels, admin/fan support, but also the most uncertainty.

WVU really has the most sustained history of success of all teams and even they are not picked near the top consistently.

TCU is 74-51 (.592) over the past 10 seasons. Baylor is 80-47 (.630), and that's with a major scandal and two terrible seasons in its aftermath. Oklahoma State, which is a criminally underrated program nationally, is 90-39 (.698).

It's more than just four or five years. Same for West Virginia, which is a seriously mediocre 68-56 (.548) over the past 10 years.

A decade is an eternity in college football. Perceptions change a lot in that amount of time. The good thing is they can change in the other direction pretty quickly as well with just a little bit of sustained success. Iowa State is a great example of that. They've only gone 56-69 (.448) the last 10 years, but they get a lot of mileage out of Matt Campbell's 39-25 record over the past five seasons.

Like I mentioned, it is just letting me know how people are evaluating which is just recent history. Not saying it is inaccurate, just seeing guidelines.

Iowa St has never had sustained success. I like them and hope Campbell stays 20 years to change that. Similar to Snyder at K St. They have never had sustained success under any other coach, yet he gave them legitimacy.

I do find a decade is an eternity in fan following. Not in program or school commitment to success. There is a reason certain teams keep coming back to their averages through good and bad times. I expect WVU to pick up again with more Florida and Ohio exposure going back to their east coastish roots. The Big 12 / Texas tie-in did not suit them being alone in the east.

As far as TCU Baylor why should it only be 10 years? Shall we compare 20? Add Ok St to that. A lot comes down to the whole system (Baylor made effort to succeed & OK ST got a good coach to stay), but again, I am just curious as to basis for most here - short term success. Not trying to change everyone's mind, just get a gauge of how to evaluate their rankings.

I have no strong desire to predict the future, but enjoy watching it play out.

(01-25-2022 01:50 PM)hiphopfroggy Wrote:  

(01-25-2022 10:32 AM)Noise Penalty Wrote:  It has been mentioned here just briefly but I think one important factor that needs to be considered is who benefits from the new B12 the most. The new AAC teams have proven they can compete and sometimes break through with 15% or less of the resources that the current B12 teams have had. The AAC TV payout was just under $7 million a year and the B12 was $47 million. This alone is a game changer. Then you add in the uptick in recruiting prowess. While it will take a few years, the upside for the new teams is huge, even if the new TV payout is in the $20-27 Million range which I am seeing online.

On the flip side of that the current B12 teams are going to have to do with less. Not sure if the recruiting prestige will be significantly diminished or not. And there is always the concern that more teams are poached.

It is interesting to see the reactions of the current teams to UCF as an addition to the B12. Of course I am a homer, but I have been a UCF fan and alumni since then early 1980s. I have watched UCF grow despite having the boots of the big 3 programs on our neck making sure we do not blossom. We have always said that all we lacked was that P5 flag to fly and the benefits that come along with it. We have the size, the location, the students, the facilities, we have had some recent success on the field and in our branding; all I think we needed was a shot to play with the big boys (and some big boy funding). We have always played with a chip on our shoulders as the red headed stepchild of Florida football. I can't help but think we are going to explode and bloom in the new B12. Not saying we will win the B12 anytime soon, but I think we will contribute in a real and meaningful way, which is all you should want in a conference mate.

I can't wait.

P.S. You current B12 guys are going to need to impress me with local BBQ if you are really going to prove your worth. Right now I have to say that Salt Lick outside of Austin is the best I have had on a road trip.

Hey, you guy's beat Art Briles' BU in a NY6 game, you are family

What sort of reactions are you referring to from current Big12 member school fanbases?

I'll admit I was a bit skeptical at first regarding UCF, and was wrong.
Things that made me hesitate at UCF in the Big 12:
1) Geography- obviously y'all are on an island in Florida which is SEC country. With not much history with Big12 teams and having to compete against CF powerhouses for recruits it seemed questionable to me at first.
2) Little history. As you said you have been a UCF football fan since the 80's, so you have witnessed their entire history. College Football history had already been written before UCF even started playing it. I'm a history guy, I love history.
3)UCF-directional school, people say it was a commuter school with no real on campus culture.


These were my first gut reactions, and I admit I was wrong to react that way and UCF is a great addition to the Big 12.

All that matters is the state of the football program right now, and UCF along with the other 3 additions are all in a strong place with their football programs and are respectable institutions of higher learning as well.
Here's to hoping TCU plays @ UCF during Halloween soon so I can go to the Universal Studio's Halloween Horror Nights that I keep hearing is so great.

So even when you lose...you win.....

I've wanted to share my thoughts, but wanted to avoid seeming biased as well. So after mulling this over since this thread started, here's what I've got.

Oklahoma State & Baylor - Teams that currently look like they should be in the conference championship mix every year
Cincinnati - Teams that look great right now, but that could change with the next head coach (whenever that comes)
BYU, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech, UCF - Solid teams that should be in the mix a lot of the time
TCU - I only have them below the group above because I'm curious how they'll do with a new coach; it will show how solid they are as a program
Kansas State, Houston, Kansas - Teams that could have success from time to time, but I see struggling more often that not.

(04-28-2022 10:46 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  I don't see too many tiers but currently as stands these are my tiers. 1-10 pretty interchangeable depending on the coach.

Oklahoma State - The best and think they can take advantage of Oklahoma to the SEC as the years go by from a recruiting standpoint unless Oklahoma is at the Alabama/Georgia/LSU (minus Brian Kelly) level year in and year out.
Baylor - Coach is key
Cincinnati - Coach is key
UCF - Coach is key
Texas Tech - Coach is key
BYU - Coach is key
Iowa State - Coach is key
West Virginia - Coach is key
Houston - Coach is key
TCU - Coach is key

Kansas State - I can see all others winning the conference if given the right coach on a semi regular basis. I think Kansas State will often be solid but rarely winning conference.

Kansas - Until they show some sustained success.

Well, no kidding. Coach-is-key is applicable to every team in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Change is inevitable, and it's all a crapshoot. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you're relieved if you can just break even until a buy-out is feasible (as, for example, during Tommy Tuberville's seemingly endless retirement/golfing gig at UC).

I look forward to the games. That's when/where things get sorted out and a new conference pecking-order emerges.

(05-18-2022 03:11 PM)JamesNathan Wrote:  I've wanted to share my thoughts, but wanted to avoid seeming biased as well. So after mulling this over since this thread started, here's what I've got.

Oklahoma State & Baylor - Teams that currently look like they should be in the conference championship mix every year
Cincinnati - Teams that look great right now, but that could change with the next head coach (whenever that comes)
BYU, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech, UCF - Solid teams that should be in the mix a lot of the time
TCU - I only have them below the group above because I'm curious how they'll do with a new coach; it will show how solid they are as a program
Kansas State, Houston, Kansas - Teams that could have success from time to time, but I see struggling more often that not.

Solid take, but i would move Tech to the last group.

I'm happy to see UH undervalued. Sleep on us at your own peril.

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 10:46 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  I don't see too many tiers but currently as stands these are my tiers. 1-10 pretty interchangeable depending on the coach.

Oklahoma State - The best and think they can take advantage of Oklahoma to the SEC as the years go by from a recruiting standpoint unless Oklahoma is at the Alabama/Georgia/LSU (minus Brian Kelly) level year in and year out.
Baylor - Coach is key
Cincinnati - Coach is key
UCF - Coach is key
Texas Tech - Coach is key
BYU - Coach is key
Iowa State - Coach is key
West Virginia - Coach is key
Houston - Coach is key
TCU - Coach is key

Kansas State - I can see all others winning the conference if given the right coach on a semi regular basis. I think Kansas State will often be solid but rarely winning conference.

Kansas - Until they show some sustained success.

Well, no kidding. Coach-is-key is applicable to every team in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Change is inevitable, and it's all a crapshoot. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you're relieved if you can just break even until a buy-out is feasible (as, for example, during Tommy Tuberville's seemingly endless retirement/golfing gig at UC).

I look forward to the games. That's when/where things get sorted out and a new conference pecking-order emerges.

Eh to a degree, but not as much for the Bama, Ohio State's, Georgia's, Florida's of the world.

Their name at least recruits themselves to keep them respectable but their goal is National Championship. It's also much easier for the power schools to find a good coach and keep than us is why I included that.

(05-18-2022 09:48 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 10:46 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  I don't see too many tiers but currently as stands these are my tiers. 1-10 pretty interchangeable depending on the coach.

Oklahoma State - The best and think they can take advantage of Oklahoma to the SEC as the years go by from a recruiting standpoint unless Oklahoma is at the Alabama/Georgia/LSU (minus Brian Kelly) level year in and year out.
Baylor - Coach is key
Cincinnati - Coach is key
UCF - Coach is key
Texas Tech - Coach is key
BYU - Coach is key
Iowa State - Coach is key
West Virginia - Coach is key
Houston - Coach is key
TCU - Coach is key

Kansas State - I can see all others winning the conference if given the right coach on a semi regular basis. I think Kansas State will often be solid but rarely winning conference.

Kansas - Until they show some sustained success.

Well, no kidding. Coach-is-key is applicable to every team in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Change is inevitable, and it's all a crapshoot. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you're relieved if you can just break even until a buy-out is feasible (as, for example, during Tommy Tuberville's seemingly endless retirement/golfing gig at UC).

I look forward to the games. That's when/where things get sorted out and a new conference pecking-order emerges.

Eh to a degree, but not as much for the Bama, Ohio State's, Georgia's, Florida's of the world.

Their name at least recruits themselves to keep them respectable but their goal is National Championship. It's also much easier for the power schools to find a good coach and keep than us is why I included that.

Doesn't Florida kind of exemplify the coach is key statement? They've had 5 coaches in the last 20 years and only one was able to have them playing at an elite level. And even then that success only spanned the life of one exceptional QB.

(05-19-2022 12:50 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:48 PM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 04:18 PM)colohank Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 10:46 AM)natibeast2.0 Wrote:  I don't see too many tiers but currently as stands these are my tiers. 1-10 pretty interchangeable depending on the coach.

Oklahoma State - The best and think they can take advantage of Oklahoma to the SEC as the years go by from a recruiting standpoint unless Oklahoma is at the Alabama/Georgia/LSU (minus Brian Kelly) level year in and year out.
Baylor - Coach is key
Cincinnati - Coach is key
UCF - Coach is key
Texas Tech - Coach is key
BYU - Coach is key
Iowa State - Coach is key
West Virginia - Coach is key
Houston - Coach is key
TCU - Coach is key

Kansas State - I can see all others winning the conference if given the right coach on a semi regular basis. I think Kansas State will often be solid but rarely winning conference.

Kansas - Until they show some sustained success.

Well, no kidding. Coach-is-key is applicable to every team in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Change is inevitable, and it's all a crapshoot. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you're relieved if you can just break even until a buy-out is feasible (as, for example, during Tommy Tuberville's seemingly endless retirement/golfing gig at UC).

I look forward to the games. That's when/where things get sorted out and a new conference pecking-order emerges.

Eh to a degree, but not as much for the Bama, Ohio State's, Georgia's, Florida's of the world.

Their name at least recruits themselves to keep them respectable but their goal is National Championship. It's also much easier for the power schools to find a good coach and keep than us is why I included that.

Doesn't Florida kind of exemplify the coach is key statement? They've had 5 coaches in the last 20 years and only one was able to have them playing at an elite level. And even then that success only spanned the life of one exceptional QB.

The same is true of Alabama. There were a lot of good, not great teams between Bear Bryant and Gene Stallings and then again between Stallings and Saban.

(05-18-2022 08:35 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  I'm happy to see UH undervalued. Sleep on us at your own peril.

Houston is picking up a lot of talent. I saw who you added yesterday.