ODDS OF MAKING THE NCAA TOURNAMENT:

Houston.......: 100%
Memphis......: 55%
SMU............: 13%
UCF.............: 7%
Cincinnati.....: 6%
Wichita St....: 4%
Temple........: 1%
Tulsa...........: 1%
ECU............: 0%
Tulane.........: 0%
USF.............: 0%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...cketology/

(01-20-2022 05:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-06-2022 10:25 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  For CUSA, its an either UAB or UNT or La tech. The tournament won't select 2 of those 3, they just are obligated to pick a single auto bid champion from those options.

That remains to be seen. UAB's NET rank is currently #41, and they have more Q1/Q2 wins than losses. That makes them a NCAA bubble team. If another CUSA team beats them in their conference tournament, UAB could earn an at-large bid.

While I agree with you, that UAB holds a slim chance at an at large, the team rankings link you posted does not.

It pegs UAB as leading candidate to earn the CUSA auto bid at 45%, with a 0% chance of an at large.

0% is not the same as 0.000%,
So we’re saying there’s a chance!


As for AAC, the same site also breaks down the top four AAC teams by their at large bid chances:
Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)

Everybody else you listed in AAC is auto-or-nothing.

Memphis even at 55% in this ranking is “first team out” behind TCU and Arkansas at 49%.*

(They probably ran their “auto bid” simulation first, then only gave Memphis credit for their 40% at large chances. So even with these numbers Memphis is projected “in” ( not even last four in) but the site collated their 68-team field poorly. Hopefully their game simulation is done more soundly…)

Add it all up and these numbers basically say that AAC currently has a 50/50 shot at being single/double bid.

(01-20-2022 08:32 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 05:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-06-2022 10:25 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  For CUSA, its an either UAB or UNT or La tech. The tournament won't select 2 of those 3, they just are obligated to pick a single auto bid champion from those options.

That remains to be seen. UAB's NET rank is currently #41, and they have more Q1/Q2 wins than losses. That makes them a NCAA bubble team. If another CUSA team beats them in their conference tournament, UAB could earn an at-large bid.

While I agree with you, that UAB holds a slim chance at an at large, the team rankings link you posted does not.

It pegs UAB as leading candidate to earn the CUSA auto bid at 45%, with a 0% chance of an at large.

0% is not the same as 0.000%,
So we’re saying there’s a chance!


As for AAC, the same site also breaks down the top four AAC teams by their at large bid chances:
Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)

Everybody else you listed in AAC is auto-or-nothing.

Memphis even at 55% in this ranking is “first team out” behind TCU and Arkansas at 49%.*

(They probably ran their “auto bid” simulation first, then only gave Memphis credit for their 40% at large chances. So even with these numbers Memphis is projected “in” ( not even last four in) but the site collated their 68-team field poorly. Hopefully their game simulation is done more soundly…)

I'm assuming win probability is a huge component of that metric? Only asking that because if Cincinnati can go 14-4 in conference (as long as one of those wins is Houston), I'd imagine they're safely in, not relying on an autobid. Now that chances of that happening are exceedingly low (though increasing with every game), but to say there is no outcome where Cincinnati is an at large seems to be a bit off.

UCF has a 0% chance, it if full of immature head cases.

(01-20-2022 08:32 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 05:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-06-2022 10:25 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  For CUSA, its an either UAB or UNT or La tech. The tournament won't select 2 of those 3, they just are obligated to pick a single auto bid champion from those options.

That remains to be seen. UAB's NET rank is currently #41, and they have more Q1/Q2 wins than losses. That makes them a NCAA bubble team. If another CUSA team beats them in their conference tournament, UAB could earn an at-large bid.

While I agree with you, that UAB holds a slim chance at an at large, the team rankings link you posted does not.

It pegs UAB as leading candidate to earn the CUSA auto bid at 45%, with a 0% chance of an at large.

0% is not the same as 0.000%,
So we’re saying there’s a chance!


As for AAC, the same site also breaks down the top four AAC teams by their at large bid chances:
Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)

Everybody else you listed in AAC is auto-or-nothing.

Memphis even at 55% in this ranking is “first team out” behind TCU and Arkansas at 49%.*

(They probably ran their “auto bid” simulation first, then only gave Memphis credit for their 40% at large chances. So even with these numbers Memphis is projected “in” ( not even last four in) but the site collated their 68-team field poorly. Hopefully their game simulation is done more soundly…)

If it boils down to Cincy vs. SMU as the most likely #2 NCAA bid, Cincinnati may have a slight advantage due to their Head Coach, who has done quite an impressive job of patching together a team with bits of rope, bubble gum, and bailing wire, thus far, notwithstanding a couple of surprise losses. However, I'll be rooting for Memphis or SMU, since Cincy's had more than their share of NCAA bids.

However, the way things have gone recently, the number of AAC bids might depend on whether Houston locks up a bid and a high seed by winning 28+ games before the AAC tournament. If they don't have to win the conference tourney, a team that does need to might be able to win the championship.

,

(01-20-2022 12:09 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 08:32 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 05:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-06-2022 10:25 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  For CUSA, its an either UAB or UNT or La tech. The tournament won't select 2 of those 3, they just are obligated to pick a single auto bid champion from those options.

That remains to be seen. UAB's NET rank is currently #41, and they have more Q1/Q2 wins than losses. That makes them a NCAA bubble team. If another CUSA team beats them in their conference tournament, UAB could earn an at-large bid.

While I agree with you, that UAB holds a slim chance at an at large, the team rankings link you posted does not.

It pegs UAB as leading candidate to earn the CUSA auto bid at 45%, with a 0% chance of an at large.

0% is not the same as 0.000%,
So we’re saying there’s a chance!


As for AAC, the same site also breaks down the top four AAC teams by their at large bid chances:
Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)

Everybody else you listed in AAC is auto-or-nothing.

Memphis even at 55% in this ranking is “first team out” behind TCU and Arkansas at 49%.*

(They probably ran their “auto bid” simulation first, then only gave Memphis credit for their 40% at large chances. So even with these numbers Memphis is projected “in” ( not even last four in) but the site collated their 68-team field poorly. Hopefully their game simulation is done more soundly…)

If it boils down to Cincy vs. SMU as the most likely #2 NCAA bid, Cincinnati may have a slight advantage due to their Head Coach, who has done quite an impressive job of patching together a team with bits of rope, bubble gum, and bailing wire, thus far, notwithstanding a couple of surprise losses. However, I'll be rooting for Memphis or SMU, since Cincy's had more than their share of NCAA bids.

However, the way things have gone recently, the number of AAC bids might depend on whether Houston locks up a bid and a high seed by winning 28+ games before the AAC tournament. If they don't have to win the conference tourney, a team that does need to might be able to win the championship.

,

Just thinking back to the years SMU was forced to go much of the season with 6-7-8 guys, fatigue definitely set in towards the end of the season.
What Houston is doing right now is very impressive but is it sustainable into February and March? Having a few Covid pauses (other teams) might actually help.

(01-20-2022 12:16 PM)SadderBudweiser Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 12:09 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 08:32 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 05:11 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(01-06-2022 10:25 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  For CUSA, its an either UAB or UNT or La tech. The tournament won't select 2 of those 3, they just are obligated to pick a single auto bid champion from those options.

That remains to be seen. UAB's NET rank is currently #41, and they have more Q1/Q2 wins than losses. That makes them a NCAA bubble team. If another CUSA team beats them in their conference tournament, UAB could earn an at-large bid.

While I agree with you, that UAB holds a slim chance at an at large, the team rankings link you posted does not.

It pegs UAB as leading candidate to earn the CUSA auto bid at 45%, with a 0% chance of an at large.

0% is not the same as 0.000%,
So we’re saying there’s a chance!


As for AAC, the same site also breaks down the top four AAC teams by their at large bid chances:
Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)

Everybody else you listed in AAC is auto-or-nothing.

Memphis even at 55% in this ranking is “first team out” behind TCU and Arkansas at 49%.*

(They probably ran their “auto bid” simulation first, then only gave Memphis credit for their 40% at large chances. So even with these numbers Memphis is projected “in” ( not even last four in) but the site collated their 68-team field poorly. Hopefully their game simulation is done more soundly…)

If it boils down to Cincy vs. SMU as the most likely #2 NCAA bid, Cincinnati may have a slight advantage due to their Head Coach, who has done quite an impressive job of patching together a team with bits of rope, bubble gum, and bailing wire, thus far, notwithstanding a couple of surprise losses. However, I'll be rooting for Memphis and SMU, since Cincy's had more than their share of NCAA bids.

However, the way things have gone recently, the number of AAC bids might depend on whether Houston locks up a bid and a high seed by winning 28+ games before the AAC tournament. If they don't have to win the conference tourney, a team that does need to might be able to win the championship.

,

Just thinking back to the years SMU was forced to go much of the season with 6-7-8 guys, fatigue definitely set in towards the end of the season.
What Houston is doing right now is very impressive but is it sustainable into February and March? Having a few Covid pauses (other teams) might actually help.

Let’s extrapolate down to to the next decimal point to show that actually six AAC teams have a measurable chance at the at-large bid:

Houston 35% (+65% auto = 100%)
Memphis 40% (+15 auto = 55%)
SMU 5% (+8 auto = 13%)
UCF 2% (+5 auto = 7%)
Cincinnati 0.8% (+5.6% auto = 6.4%)
Wichita 0.6% (+3.4% auto = 4.0%)

The website say’s Cincinnati 6% chance of a berth of any kind and a 6% chance of making it as an at large.
But Wichita shows 3 & 4. So still in the realm of possibility

(01-20-2022 07:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  ODDS OF MAKING THE NCAA TOURNAMENT:

Houston.......: 100%
Memphis......: 55%
SMU............: 13%
UCF.............: 7%
Cincinnati.....: 6%
Wichita St....: 4%
Temple........: 1%
Tulsa...........: 1%
ECU............: 0%
Tulane.........: 0%
USF.............: 0%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...cketology/

55%? LMAO

Teamrankings is a bad sight for that. Use Haslametrics teamcast.

(01-20-2022 10:28 PM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(01-20-2022 07:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  ODDS OF MAKING THE NCAA TOURNAMENT:

Houston.......: 100%
Memphis......: 55%
SMU............: 13%
UCF.............: 7%
Cincinnati.....: 6%
Wichita St....: 4%
Temple........: 1%
Tulsa...........: 1%
ECU............: 0%
Tulane.........: 0%
USF.............: 0%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...cketology/

55%? LMAO

I’ve just been handed this update…
The Four Freshmen are down to 36%
Big SMU men up to 20%

Dance/auto

Houston 100/62
Memphis 36/12
SMU 20/10
Cincinnati 8/7
UCF 7/5
Wichita 4/3
Temple 1/1

UAB 46
UNT 20
FAU 3
Rice 2
Charlotte 1

https://youtu.be/U2I4XhFnAtY

(01-20-2022 11:00 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Teamrankings is a bad sight for that. Use Haslametrics teamcast.

Cool website, I like it! They do have a slightly different take from what we see on Sagarin, KenPom, NET.

They have AAC and CUSA both as one bid, (UH, UNT). However in the next 8 out they have 2 more CUSA and only one AAC (SMU, UAB, LaTech)

They have Memphis ranked 73rd (ahead of LaTech) but maybe they have momentum factored in for tourney projections

The thing I would stress is those team odds don't work independently from one another. It's very likely as a couple team odds go down, another team will go up. AAC has a few teams that could make the tournament with a strong finish. I suspect one or two will emerge from the bloated middle.

at least tulsa dragged down UCs NET last night

(01-21-2022 10:11 AM)panicstricken Wrote:  at least tulsa dragged down UCs NET last night

Really…can’t wait to get to the Big 12..teams like Tulsa are killing our chances of getting to the tourney…

i know

but its all i have right now

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-men-field
Lunardi with UCF as “next four out”, so we have a reasonable shot at the tourney still if we don’t lay any more eggs (which I’m not certain this team can do). No Memphis anywhere to be seen now though. Looking like it’s gonna be Houston and UCF or a one bid league if UCF craps the bed and Houston wins the tourney.

(01-21-2022 10:51 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-men-field
Lunardi with UCF as “next four out”, so we have a reasonable shot at the tourney still if we don’t lay any more eggs (which I’m not certain this team can do). No Memphis anywhere to be seen now though. Looking like it’s gonna be Houston and UCF or a one bid league if UCF craps the bed and Houston wins the tourney.

I've seen Cincinnati in a couple next 4 out bracket projections too. I've seen SMU as high as in a couple brackets. Those 3 and Memphis could still theoretically play their way in, though Memphis's door is closing very quickly.

(01-21-2022 10:51 AM)BraveKnight Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-men-field
Lunardi with UCF as “next four out”, so we have a reasonable shot at the tourney still if we don’t lay any more eggs (which I’m not certain this team can do). No Memphis anywhere to be seen now though. Looking like it’s gonna be Houston and UCF or a one bid league if UCF craps the bed and Houston wins the tourney.

How can he realistically have Michigan in there at all? 8-7 and their wins are Buffalo, Prarie View A&M, Tarleton St, San Diego State, UNLV, Nebraska, and Maryland. 0-5 vs. Q1 and 1-1 vs. Q2.