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Instant Analysis of New Conferences
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #1
Instant Analysis of New Conferences
So my original goal was to compile 5 years worth of basketball, baseball, softball, and football RPI type numbers to see what the American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, and MAC would look like in each sport with the updated membership. For sake of comparison, I added WKU and MTSU to the MAC. I compiled the data for one year and it took a while so I decided to do a ONE year instant analysis instead. Basketball numbers are from 2020-2021. Baseball and Softball are from 2021. Football is from the current Massey composite (yes I know it changes weekly so these numbers are soon to be out of date).

Caveat: I know the RPI/NET/Massey Composite isn't necessarily translatable because the conference teams played would have changed. However, this is just an exercise in fun to get a rough idea of what we could expect.

Football (Average current Massey rating):
1. MWC (70.67)
2. AAC (87.43)
3. SBC (91.46)
4. MAC (92.21)

Top 5 SBC contributors: CCU, Louisiana, App State, Marshall, and South Alabama.
Bottom 5: Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, and Texas State.

Instant Analysis - the SBC is a little down this year compared to last, but the bottom teams are all ones we expect get better. If the other teams can maintain their level of performance we will get better as a conference. Also, JMU is not figured into these numbers and one would expect quick success in FBS from them.

Basketball (Average NET ranking):
1. AAC (133.79)
2. MWC (163.72)
3. MAC (188.79)
4. SBC (196.64)

Top 5 contributors: Marshall, Georgia State, Old Dominion, JMU, and Texas State
Bottom 5: ULM, Troy, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas State

Instant Analysis: I am curious how far down the AAC average NET will fall when they replace good games with the departing teams with the newer teams. The Sun Belt obviously needs the most help in basketball. We added some teams that have been good so hopefully that's the shot in the arm we need to get better as a league. Commissioner Gill is a basketball guy, and one of his goals is to improve the sport. We will see where it goes from here.

Baseball (Average RPI):
1. AAC (111.3)
2. MWC (120.0)
3. SBC (132.1)
4. MAC (179.5)

Top 5 contributors: Old Dominion, Southern Miss, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
Bottom 5: Marshall, JMU, Texas State, Arkansas State, App State

Instant Analysis: Baseball is a sport we should excel in. There are many proud programs in this league that can rise up in any given year. JMU and Marshall need to catch up quickly. Without Marshall and JMU our average would have been 113.5.

Softball (Average RPI):
1. SBC (102.3)
2. AAC (108.1)
3. MWC (135.4)
4. MAC (159.4)

Top 5 contributors: JMU, Louisiana, Texas State, South Alabama, and Troy
Bottom 5: Georgia State, Southern Miss, ULM, Marshall, and CCU

Instant Analysis: This is a danged good softball league. The SBC had 4 bids to the NCAA Tournament last year, and had JMU been in the league we could have received 5 (if they actually let a non-P5 have that many).

Welcome new members! We look forward to growing the conference with you!
10-22-2021 04:51 PM
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banker Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
We need to sponsor soccer (says the defending National Champion school).
10-22-2021 04:54 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
Thank's for compiling this data! Hopefully this conference can snag a baseball or softball national championship to really help cement our place as one of the best mid-majors. We also need to get somebody over the hump and to a NY6 bowl. If C-USA dissolves we will be the only league without a current member who has played in one.
10-22-2021 04:56 PM
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12thmonarch Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 04:54 PM)banker Wrote:  We need to sponsor soccer (says the defending National Champion school).

+1
10-22-2021 04:59 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 04:54 PM)banker Wrote:  We need to sponsor soccer (says the defending National Champion school).

Seems obvious. With the additions we now have six men's soccer programs (Marshall, ODU, Coastal Carolina, JMU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern). Depending on how things shake out with CUSA, they'll be left with FIU as their only all-sports member to play, along with affiliates Kentucky and South Carolina (and West Virginia coming on in 2022). If they can't add to that, we could accept all four of them as affiliates.

(still seems weird calling the Sun Belt "we" and CUSA "they" but I'm sure it'll wear off soon enough)
10-22-2021 04:59 PM
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12thmonarch Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 04:59 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(10-22-2021 04:54 PM)banker Wrote:  We need to sponsor soccer (says the defending National Champion school).

Seems obvious. With the additions we now have six men's soccer programs (Marshall, ODU, Coastal Carolina, JMU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern). Depending on how things shake out with CUSA, they'll be left with FIU as their only all-sports member to play, along with affiliates Kentucky and South Carolina (and West Virginia coming on in 2022). If they can't add to that, we could accept all four of them as affiliates.

(still seems weird calling the Sun Belt "we" and CUSA "they" but I'm sure it'll wear off soon enough)

Me too. I think it will take a little while getting used to it.
10-22-2021 05:00 PM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
Y'all, I didn't create this thread to talk about soccer again. We have almost every other post to do that! Let's talk about football, softball, baseball, and basketball. Please.
10-22-2021 05:06 PM
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cyc46 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
We’ll be back in football. If we ever get to middling basketball that will be an accomplishment
10-22-2021 05:09 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:09 PM)cyc46 Wrote:  We’ll be back in football. If we ever get to middling basketball that will be an accomplishment

Can't wait for the Troy/Southern Miss/A-State Slum-Court rivalry with one another. Who can be worse at basketball, who the heck even knows.

Like we've said already I'm excited for Troy to play ODU's women's basketball team.
10-22-2021 05:10 PM
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hgolfman405 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 04:59 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(10-22-2021 04:54 PM)banker Wrote:  We need to sponsor soccer (says the defending National Champion school).

Seems obvious. With the additions we now have six men's soccer programs (Marshall, ODU, Coastal Carolina, JMU, Georgia State, Georgia Southern). Depending on how things shake out with CUSA, they'll be left with FIU as their only all-sports member to play, along with affiliates Kentucky and South Carolina (and West Virginia coming on in 2022). If they can't add to that, we could accept all four of them as affiliates.

(still seems weird calling the Sun Belt "we" and CUSA "they" but I'm sure it'll wear off soon enough)

Pretty competitive league and adding UK, USC and if UWV can be worked out another big plus. Very reasonable travel with plenty of rival games within.

UM vs. UK
ODU vs. JMU
Ga.St vs. Ga. So
Coastal vs. USC

Don't see any problems here but USA disbanded Men's Soccer so I really don't have a close perspective....Looks like a winner to me.
10-22-2021 05:12 PM
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GaSoEagle Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
We will be back too or we ll keep firing guys until we get back- haha
10-22-2021 05:14 PM
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EigenEagle Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
My take:

Football: If we're behind the MWC and AAC, it isn't by much. We don't have any program equivalent to Boise, Memphis, and SMU but we could be deeper than either league on a lot of years.

MBB: I think we will close the gap with the MWC, but as long as the AAC has Wichita, Temple, Memphis, and maybe 1 or 2 others still has a not-insignificant lead on us.

Baseball: Don't see any non-power conference with a clear advantage over us. The bottom of the league could keep the RPI low, though.

Softball: I think we may have secured the position of the top non-power conference in this sport, including maybe even the Big 12.
10-22-2021 05:37 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:37 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  My take:

Football: If we're behind the MWC and AAC, it isn't by much. We don't have any program equivalent to Boise, Memphis, and SMU but we could be deeper than either league on a lot of years.

Boise isn't the powerhouse they used to be, and they've taken another step back this year in my opinion. Memphis is 4-3 with three straight losses, also unranked. App State is better program than both at this point, though they don't have the reputation Boise State has. SMU is the AAC's top program right now, but they're only a tiny margin better than programs like Louisiana, App State, and Coastal.
10-22-2021 05:43 PM
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:37 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  My take:

Football: If we're behind the MWC and AAC, it isn't by much. We don't have any program equivalent to Boise, Memphis, and SMU but we could be deeper than either league on a lot of years.

I think people would consider the App State the Boise or Memphis of the SBC. They just haven't made a NY6 yet. They are definitely a recognizable brand though.
10-22-2021 05:53 PM
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CoachMaclid Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:06 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Y'all, I didn't create this thread to talk about soccer again. We have almost every other post to do that! Let's talk about football, softball, baseball, and basketball. Please.

You do realize that if Marshall, JMU, and Coastal bring the CUSA associate soccer members and either of the Florida schools with them, SBC basically becomes the best men's soccer conference in the nation overnight...
10-22-2021 06:20 PM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 06:20 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  
(10-22-2021 05:06 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Y'all, I didn't create this thread to talk about soccer again. We have almost every other post to do that! Let's talk about football, softball, baseball, and basketball. Please.

You do realize that if Marshall, JMU, and Coastal bring the CUSA associate soccer members and either of the Florida schools with them, SBC basically becomes the best men's soccer conference in the nation overnight...

Yes. We are told that in about 85% of the threads on this board. You do realize that's not the intent of my post...
10-22-2021 06:29 PM
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Bobcat87 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:09 PM)cyc46 Wrote:  We’ll be back in football. If we ever get to middling basketball that will be an accomplishment

And we’ll be back too, I just have no idea when . . .
10-22-2021 06:31 PM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 05:06 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Y'all, I didn't create this thread to talk about soccer again. We have almost every other post to do that! Let's talk about football, softball, baseball, and basketball. Please.

No soccer talk, fine with me. But I am fully prepared to start calling for SBC sponsorship of women's lacrosse and field hockey, now that we have 3 schools sponsoring each? Will that be ok?

No? I'll see myself out.
10-22-2021 07:25 PM
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CAJUNNATION Offline
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RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
FWIW, Louisiana will have the most talented basketball lineup we’ve had in many years.
10-22-2021 07:31 PM
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SkullyMaroo Offline
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RE: Instant Analysis of New Conferences
(10-22-2021 07:31 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  FWIW, Louisiana will have the most talented basketball lineup we’ve had in many years.

It looks like everyone's OOC schedule in conference is dreadful so we need to win some games. I'm curious what South Alabama's season looks like. We return just one full time starter, Kayo Goncalves (USM fans might remember his 18 points on 6 three pointers - including a buzzer beater). Jamal West made 17 starts and he returns as well.

But we have 7 high-level transfers:
Tyrell "Turbo" Jones - Transfer from Auburn
*Lance Thomas - Transfer from Memphis
*Jay Jay Chandler - Transfer from Texas A&M
*Diante Smith - Transfer from TCU
*Greg Parham - Transfer from VMI
*Javon Franklin - Transfer from Auburn
*Charles Manning, Jr. - Transfer from LSU

And we add a few additional newcomers. I'm hoping USA can return to what we should be. Hopefully the Cajuns and others are strong as well. We gotta get better.
10-22-2021 07:45 PM
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