Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.



2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.

Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).

An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.

If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.




3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.

If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.

Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.


4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.

Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.

But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.

in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.



5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.

If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.

That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.

The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.

The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.

These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.

If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.



2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.

Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).

An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.

If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.




3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.

If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.

Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.


4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.

Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.

But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.

in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.



5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.

If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.

That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.

The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.

The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.

These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.

If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.

Focusing on just the ACC.

Baylor-Dr. Livingstone has done an amazing job at Baylor. The Bears are on an upward trajectory and would be a great addition to almost any conference. If I am not mistaken their graduation rates are the highest in the Big 12 (including academic bully, Texas).
Their only problem is : location, location, location

Tulane-belongs in the ACC if their administration would be consistent in their approach to athletics.
Their only problem is: see Baylor

Cincinnati-can't say anything negative. good academics and sports..new market. The best fit for the ACC of all of the schools that are available without a location problem.

West Virginia-terrible academic fit with very little in common with most ACC schools. There sports, however, are on par with the ACC. The only way West Virginia joins would be if ESPN demanded it and was willing to back it up with a massive infusion of dollars.

Unfortunately the best choices for the ACC already reside in other conferences:
from the SEC: Kentucky and South Carolina
from the B1G: Maryland

(10-15-2021 08:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.

Focusing on just the ACC.

Baylor-Dr. Livingstone has done an amazing job at Baylor. The Bears are on an upward trajectory and would be a great addition to almost any conference. If I am not mistaken their graduation rates are the highest in the Big 12 (including academic bully, Texas).
Their only problem is : location, location, location

Tulane-belongs in the ACC if their administration would be consistent in their approach to athletics.
Their only problem is: see Baylor

Cincinnati-can't say anything negative. good academics and sports..new market. The best fit for the ACC of all of the schools that are available without a location problem.

West Virginia-terrible academic fit with very little in common with most ACC schools. There sports, however, are on par with the ACC. The only way West Virginia joins would be if ESPN demanded it and was willing to back it up with a massive infusion of dollars.

Unfortunately the best choices for the ACC already reside in other conferences:
from the SEC: Kentucky and South Carolina
from the B1G: Maryland

I don't have a problem with the ACC adding Cincinnati, West Virginia, or even Baylor (though, personally, I'd prefer TCU), but... instead of Tulane, I'd rather double-dip into Texas by adding Houston. It's still a good bridge to FSU (709 miles by car), and let's face it: having an ACC team in New Orleans still doesn't flip it from an SEC town. .. nor does having one ACC team in Waco guarantee ACCN carriage in Texas (but Fort Worth + Houston goes a long way).

(10-15-2021 10:12 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(10-15-2021 08:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.

Focusing on just the ACC.

Baylor-Dr. Livingstone has done an amazing job at Baylor. The Bears are on an upward trajectory and would be a great addition to almost any conference. If I am not mistaken their graduation rates are the highest in the Big 12 (including academic bully, Texas).
Their only problem is : location, location, location

Tulane-belongs in the ACC if their administration would be consistent in their approach to athletics.
Their only problem is: see Baylor

Cincinnati-can't say anything negative. good academics and sports..new market. The best fit for the ACC of all of the schools that are available without a location problem.

West Virginia-terrible academic fit with very little in common with most ACC schools. There sports, however, are on par with the ACC. The only way West Virginia joins would be if ESPN demanded it and was willing to back it up with a massive infusion of dollars.

Unfortunately the best choices for the ACC already reside in other conferences:
from the SEC: Kentucky and South Carolina
from the B1G: Maryland

I don't have a problem with the ACC adding Cincinnati, West Virginia, or even Baylor (though, personally, I'd prefer TCU), but... instead of Tulane, I'd rather double-dip into Texas by adding Houston. It's still a good bridge to FSU (709 miles by car), and let's face it: having an ACC team in New Orleans still doesn't flip it from an SEC town. .. nor does having one ACC team in Waco guarantee ACCN carriage in Texas (but Fort Worth + Houston goes a long way).

UH is, like Baylor on a upward trajectory, and would make a fine addition. Without Texas (the school) as an anchor, I'm just not sold on going all the way to Texas (the state) to get the bang we would need to invest in the last two schools we would take in realignment.
Cincinnati and Notre Dame would be the perfect pair, without Notre Dame Cincinnati alone is an attractive addition if we wanted to stop at 15.
West Virginia just has too much baggage.

Still in the back of my mind.......Kentucky and Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina or even getting the band back together with Maryland and South Carolina.......interestingly each of those schools would be better off (with the exception of a few dollars) in the ACC.

I don’t see any incentive for the ACC to grow at this point, unless they need a 16th to compliment a full member ND. Those additional markets aren’t going to increase the tv contract.

All P5 expansion is on hold until either:
ND decides to join a conference
The SEC decides to grow (again)

The PAC 12 is geographically and academically trapped—there’s no where they can grow that improves their finances and meets their exacting standards

The ACC doesn’t have anyone in their footprint that improves things for them either.

For the Big 10 their might be a few schools who would be a plus for them but the ACC and PAC 12 schools they might consider are going to require too many companion schools for the move to make financial sense for the Big 10.

I think the set up we have will be in place for another decade and a half at least.

(10-15-2021 12:24 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t see any incentive for the ACC to grow at this point, unless they need a 16th to compliment a full member ND. Those additional markets aren’t going to increase the tv contract.

All P5 expansion is on hold until either:
ND decides to join a conference
The SEC decides to grow (again)

The PAC 12 is geographically and academically trapped—there’s no where they can grow that improves their finances and meets their exacting standards

The ACC doesn’t have anyone in their footprint that improves things for them either.

For the Big 10 their might be a few schools who would be a plus for them but the ACC and PAC 12 schools they might consider are going to require too many companion schools for the move to make financial sense for the Big 10.

I think the set up we have will be in place for another decade and a half at least.

Well the SEC won't move on the ACC unless the Big 10 does. So if the Big 10 stands pat the SEC will as well.

However, I do think the ACC needs to do whatever can enhance their revenue and position.

Adding a Texas school or two and a new state or two could enhance revenue simply via an inventory increase as long as those added add to the competitiveness of their product which generates interest and as far as markets go New Orleans, Houston, and Cincinnati would help.

And then there's that lingering N.D. issue. Do you think adding Texas, Louisiana, and Ohio (particularly Cincinnati) would help the ultimate chance of landing the Irish? I do. Now certainly we would have to be facing a closed upper tier situation, but I believe that eventuality is only about a decade, or less, away.

By making those moves only the ACC could offer representation in New England, southern recruiting exposure to the Irish in Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, and a long existing N.D. recruiting honey hole like Cincinnati. As long as an ACC schedule doesn't move past 10 conference games the Irish would still have 2 games for USC and/or Stanford and a Big 10 school.

And playing Ga Tech, Miami, FSU, Tulane, Houston, or Baylor and Cincinnati are not the murderer's row of Georgia, Florida, L.S.U., Texas, Texas A&M and Ohio State.

So IMO it prepares them better to receive Notre Dame, and grows markets, inventory, and makes them even harder to raid. And none of it would goad the SEC into action.

Only reasons for the ACC to expand is if ND changes its mind, or there are unforeseen defections from the upper tier conferences. B1G expansion to 14 has been awkward (financial and on-field competitive concerns with the additions, transition to a new commissioner), and SEC expansion to 16 could create problems (are there enough wins available for the large bourgeoisie). The B12 schools (and Tulane) do not add to the average value of an ACC program…they’ll be available in the future if needed. The ACC is better-off being patient, and not expanding now.

The ACC should focus on other revenue generating ideas. ACC football needs to be superior to the new B12. FSU, Miami, Clemson and VT provide marketable TV brands…the ACC needs to make sure that the conference and ESPN are addressing their needs. The commissioner can work on CFP expansion; partnerships with the B1G, PAC or SEC; and further separating the A5 from the NCAA D1 (basketball tournament reform). Finally, if the ACC dilutes itself with unnecessary expansion, then the brand name programs have more of an excuse to have wandering eyes.

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.



2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.

Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).

An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.

If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.




3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.

If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.

Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.


4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.

Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.

But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.

in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.



5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.

If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.

That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.

The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.

The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.

These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.

If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.

Looking at the SEC:
The SEC has set the standard and has no reason to expand further. In fact you could say the SEC is top heavy in football schools, but they are well spread out in the southeast and represent the true football crazed section of the country. ESPN couldn't have drawn it up any better.
16 teams....not too many, with flexibility. At 16 you could comply with the NCAA's two division rule with 8 team divisions, or if necessary go to a 4 team pod system for scheduling and a playoff ready system.

The sec's move to 16 will force the ACC and B1G to also move to 16 teams.
ESPN will keep the ACC in tact for content. The ACC is strong in areas that the SEC is relatively weak, such as basketball, soccer, lacrosse, country club sports for both men and women.
Likewise this will force the B1G to also move to 16, while I do believe the PAC will remain a 12 team league (and will play with either two 6 team divisions or 4 three team pods).

To that end; ESPN successfully dictated, by moving Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, what the rest of realignment will look like.

SEC will stand pat at 16.
ACC will add Cincinnati and very reluctantly add West Virginia at ESPN's behest, while keeping Notre Dame a partial member.
The B1G with their self imposed AAU rule, grab Kansas and Iowa State (which are their only choices).
And then it's over......until 2036.

(10-15-2021 12:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  Still in the back of my mind.......Kentucky and Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina or even getting the band back together with Maryland and South Carolina.......interestingly each of those schools would be better off (with the exception of a few dollars) in the ACC.

It's a pretty big gap in dollars, and growing. I also totally disagree that South Carolina would be better off aside from $ in the ACC...we'd get more games against nearby schools, but also get more games against faraway schools up north. We'd reunite with old rivals, but we've spent nearly 30 years now in the SEC building rivalries here that we'd lose. And the games we play now are so much more meaningful even when we lose, the chance to take down an Alabama or Florida is just a lot more exciting than hoping to beat Duke or NC State.

Returning to the ACC would be the one thing that could kill my interest in Gamecock football...others may not feel that strongly but I also don't see any positive interest from the fanbase in considering a move. Maybe I'm wrong?

(10-16-2021 08:53 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(10-15-2021 12:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  Still in the back of my mind.......Kentucky and Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina or even getting the band back together with Maryland and South Carolina.......interestingly each of those schools would be better off (with the exception of a few dollars) in the ACC.

It's a pretty big gap in dollars, and growing. I also totally disagree that South Carolina would be better off aside from $ in the ACC...we'd get more games against nearby schools, but also get more games against faraway schools up north. We'd reunite with old rivals, but we've spent nearly 30 years now in the SEC building rivalries here that we'd lose. And the games we play now are so much more meaningful even when we lose, the chance to take down an Alabama or Florida is just a lot more exciting than hoping to beat Duke or NC State.

Returning to the ACC would be the one thing that could kill my interest in Gamecock football...others may not feel that strongly but I also don't see any positive interest from the fanbase in considering a move. Maybe I'm wrong?

I don't have a dog in the race here and I can't even remember when South Carolina was last in the ACC. The only advantage South Carolina would have of joining the ACC would be being in the same conference as Clemson and IMO Clemson belongs in the SEC more than South Carolina in the ACC. They're more of a football school than a men's basketball school.

(10-16-2021 08:59 AM)schmolik Wrote:  I don't have a dog in the race here and I can't even remember when South Carolina was last in the ACC.

You'd have to go back to before many of us were born - SC was in the ACC only from 1953-71, over a decade less than we've been in the SEC at this point and counting.

It's an ACC fantasy they mention sometimes and it really would make a lot of sense from their perspective. We have history there, we'd be competitive, and we certainly fit the footprint. But my perception at least is that there is zero interest from the SC side and the fanbase.

My thoughts regarding the ACC expansion:

1. WVU has zero chance. The value of the program is steadily declining.

2. I don’t think the ACC/the ESPN will jump to 18 teams right away. 16 is probably the right number.

3. Cincy and TCU are my top picks.

4. Having said that, I don’t think the ACC/the ESPN are in rush. ND is a much bigger fish to fry and their media deal with the NBC will expire in 2025. I would wait until then. If ND extend the deal with the NBC, then the ESPN can start thinking about a plan B.

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.



2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.

Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).

An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.

If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.




3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.

If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.

Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.


4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.

Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.

But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.

in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.



5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.

If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.

That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.

The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.

The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.

These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.

If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.

This will never happen…

(Sorry, couldn’t resist )

Interesting scenarios. Speaking just to the ACC one, if they REALLY want to solidify the ND full-time acquisition, perhaps they omit WVU, and take TWO TX teams in TCU and Houston. That would not just get the Irish exposure in TX, but games directly in both major markets.

But if structural changes force ND into full-time conference membership I think the ACC remains a clear leader as it is - this would simply strengthen that position.

(10-16-2021 08:53 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(10-15-2021 12:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  Still in the back of my mind.......Kentucky and Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina or even getting the band back together with Maryland and South Carolina.......interestingly each of those schools would be better off (with the exception of a few dollars) in the ACC.

It's a pretty big gap in dollars, and growing. I also totally disagree that South Carolina would be better off aside from $ in the ACC...we'd get more games against nearby schools, but also get more games against faraway schools up north. We'd reunite with old rivals, but we've spent nearly 30 years now in the SEC building rivalries here that we'd lose. And the games we play now are so much more meanin..
gful even when we lose, the chance to take down an Alabama or Florida is just a lot more exciting than hoping to beat Duke or NC State.

Returning to the ACC would be the one thing that could kill my interest in Gamecock football...others may not feel that strongly but I also don't see any positive interest from the fanbase in considering a move. Maybe I'm wrong?

Personally out of the three, my preference would be Kentucky and Maryland.
South Carolina after 30 years hasn't developed any really good rivalries in the SEC. The real reason for the interest in the Cocks for the ACC is that Columbia is less than a 3 hour drive from 6 ACC schools.

(10-16-2021 09:46 PM)XLance Wrote:  South Carolina after 30 years hasn't developed any really good rivalries in the SEC.

I disagree. The Georgia game is huge, although the rivalry is a bit one-sided. The Florida series is also heavily not in our favor, but became more of a rivalry once Spurrier came and we actually started to beat them a few times...could have gotten even bigger if Muschamp hadn't been Muschamp. Most of our games with Tennessee have been close wins or losses for years which has increased that rivalry, and the 5 game losing streak to Kentucky in the recent past elevated that game as well. Even the Battle of Columbia with Missouri has potential and a pretty even, back-and-forth series. Granted, none of the forced Western division permanent rivalries have ever amounted to much - Arkansas, Mississippi State & Texas A&M (we'd have to beat them at least once to even begin to start a rivalry).

I'll take all of the above in a heartbeat over 3 or 4 games against the NC schools a year. Duke & Wake we haven't even played once since joining the SEC in 1992, and does anyone really miss that? We play UNC and NC State every few years now which seems to work well for both us and them. I suppose that may change if the SEC goes to 9 conference games but I for one would miss games against the other SEC East schools more if they go away than I would those nonconference games.

Those ACC rivalries are a generation or more in the past now, since joining the SEC we have more history with East Carolina than any of the ACC schools (aside from Clemson, obviously).

This move will never happen, but Pitt needs to join the B1G. Being in a "POD" with Maryland, PSU and Rutgers is the most natural fit for Pitt in any of these scenarios. It's unfortunate that it won't happen. But it is what it what it is. Even in the streaming world that is upon us, markets and brands will drive the ship. And the B1G already has Pittsburgh covered.

(10-15-2021 12:24 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I don’t see any incentive for the ACC to grow at this point, unless they need a 16th to compliment a full member ND. Those additional markets aren’t going to increase the tv contract.

All P5 expansion is on hold until either:
ND decides to join a conference
The SEC decides to grow (again)

The PAC 12 is geographically and academically trapped—there’s no where they can grow that improves their finances and meets their exacting standards

The ACC doesn’t have anyone in their footprint that improves things for them either.

For the Big 10 their might be a few schools who would be a plus for them but the ACC and PAC 12 schools they might consider are going to require too many companion schools for the move to make financial sense for the Big 10.

I think the set up we have will be in place for another decade and a half at least.

I agree. If the ACC goes to 16 + ND, it makes it that much tougher to be flexible with scheduling should ND decide they want to join. With 14 + ND, you can add one to get to 16 and then just count division games-7 games. That would give ND more scheduling flexibility than an 8 or 9 game conference schedule. So what the ACC needs is the great green shamrock whale and expanding before they join makes it too hard to get them.

I don't think the B1G moves now, even though they would probably be happy to go to 16, because the schools they want are locked up in the ACC now. Maybe in 10-15 years they add 2 ACC schools.

(10-17-2021 04:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  I don't think the B1G moves now, even though they would probably be happy to go to 16, because the schools they want are locked up in the ACC now. Maybe in 10-15 years they add 2 ACC schools.

Schools are not necessarily locked. When court rulings substantially change the equitable nature of existing contracts forcing by compliance one party (the school) into an unforeseen expense (should they rule next Summer that players are employees) then all previous contracts signed prior to the court's ruling may be ruled null and void, provided a party, or parties, want out. GOR's already have precedent for this as applied in the entertainment industry.

(10-17-2021 06:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 04:20 PM)bullet Wrote:  I don't think the B1G moves now, even though they would probably be happy to go to 16, because the schools they want are locked up in the ACC now. Maybe in 10-15 years they add 2 ACC schools.

GOR's already have precedent for this as applied in the entertainment industry.

I have made this music/movie comparison before. Absolutely correct.