(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 10:46 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 12:43 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(10-22-2021 01:56 PM)XLance Wrote:  I do think that Kansas and Mizzou end up as the B1G's #15 and #16.

I sincerely believe that Mizzou has zero interest in the B1G. Kansas is another story though, and I am sure that they would jump if offered. However, does the B1G really want Kansas?? I believe that is a legitimate question to ask here.
Does adding Kansas add a rivalry for the B1G?? Believe it or not, yes, it does, in basketball. Kansas used to have a rivalry with Nebraska, so there's that.
Does adding Kansas add a significant market for the B1G??? Kansas City isn't a shrimp, but it is not a "DFW," which the SEC just added.
Does Kansas have a big fan base in its own state??? In basketball, yes. For football, that following is practically microscopic, IMO.

Click the link, and then type in Kansas Jayhawks. Then compare to K-State.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

A legitimate question.
The B1G would take Kansas because they are a "brand". Even though it is in basketball, Kansas has won the last umpteen Big 12 basketball championships against some very good competition and is regarded as a "blue blood" in one of the two top income producing sports.
Kansas is an AAU school which the B1G seems to covet. They are a traditional rival of Nebraska (which needs some identity help in the west). And lastly Kansas and Missouri define the boundaries of what we commonly refer to as the mid-west, and the B1G has always thought of themselves as a mid-western conference.

It is interesting to ponder which school the SEC would target to replace Missouri, if they were to leave to take a spot in the B1G.
My top four contenders would be: Oklahoma State, Louisville, West Virginia and University of South Florida.

Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 10:46 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 12:43 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(10-22-2021 01:56 PM)XLance Wrote:  I do think that Kansas and Mizzou end up as the B1G's #15 and #16.

I sincerely believe that Mizzou has zero interest in the B1G. Kansas is another story though, and I am sure that they would jump if offered. However, does the B1G really want Kansas?? I believe that is a legitimate question to ask here.
Does adding Kansas add a rivalry for the B1G?? Believe it or not, yes, it does, in basketball. Kansas used to have a rivalry with Nebraska, so there's that.
Does adding Kansas add a significant market for the B1G??? Kansas City isn't a shrimp, but it is not a "DFW," which the SEC just added.
Does Kansas have a big fan base in its own state??? In basketball, yes. For football, that following is practically microscopic, IMO.

Click the link, and then type in Kansas Jayhawks. Then compare to K-State.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

A legitimate question.
The B1G would take Kansas because they are a "brand". Even though it is in basketball, Kansas has won the last umpteen Big 12 basketball championships against some very good competition and is regarded as a "blue blood" in one of the two top income producing sports.
Kansas is an AAU school which the B1G seems to covet. They are a traditional rival of Nebraska (which needs some identity help in the west). And lastly Kansas and Missouri define the boundaries of what we commonly refer to as the mid-west, and the B1G has always thought of themselves as a mid-western conference.

It is interesting to ponder which school the SEC would target to replace Missouri, if they were to leave to take a spot in the B1G.
My top four contenders would be: Oklahoma State, Louisville, West Virginia and University of South Florida.

Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

(10-26-2021 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 10:46 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 12:43 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I sincerely believe that Mizzou has zero interest in the B1G. Kansas is another story though, and I am sure that they would jump if offered. However, does the B1G really want Kansas?? I believe that is a legitimate question to ask here.
Does adding Kansas add a rivalry for the B1G?? Believe it or not, yes, it does, in basketball. Kansas used to have a rivalry with Nebraska, so there's that.
Does adding Kansas add a significant market for the B1G??? Kansas City isn't a shrimp, but it is not a "DFW," which the SEC just added.
Does Kansas have a big fan base in its own state??? In basketball, yes. For football, that following is practically microscopic, IMO.

Click the link, and then type in Kansas Jayhawks. Then compare to K-State.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/col...ket-sales/

A legitimate question.
The B1G would take Kansas because they are a "brand". Even though it is in basketball, Kansas has won the last umpteen Big 12 basketball championships against some very good competition and is regarded as a "blue blood" in one of the two top income producing sports.
Kansas is an AAU school which the B1G seems to covet. They are a traditional rival of Nebraska (which needs some identity help in the west). And lastly Kansas and Missouri define the boundaries of what we commonly refer to as the mid-west, and the B1G has always thought of themselves as a mid-western conference.

It is interesting to ponder which school the SEC would target to replace Missouri, if they were to leave to take a spot in the B1G.
My top four contenders would be: Oklahoma State, Louisville, West Virginia and University of South Florida.

Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

True JR, and in that regard "the Alliance"is working to assist the SEC in that they have slowed the further shifting at the P level that we see going on daily at the G level.
But if a fundamental format changes, and 16 with pod scheduling gets the fans excited before basketball is freed there may be a rush for the alliance conferences to fill out to 16. I still have a hard time believing that 1-eighteen is a good number and 2-if there is movement to 18, that UVa and Carolina wouldn't opt for the B1G rather than the SEC.
We'll see. One question would be, what would the Big 12 do if the PAC took BYU and the ACC took Cincinnati?

(10-26-2021 01:30 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 10:46 AM)XLance Wrote:  A legitimate question.
The B1G would take Kansas because they are a "brand". Even though it is in basketball, Kansas has won the last umpteen Big 12 basketball championships against some very good competition and is regarded as a "blue blood" in one of the two top income producing sports.
Kansas is an AAU school which the B1G seems to covet. They are a traditional rival of Nebraska (which needs some identity help in the west). And lastly Kansas and Missouri define the boundaries of what we commonly refer to as the mid-west, and the B1G has always thought of themselves as a mid-western conference.

It is interesting to ponder which school the SEC would target to replace Missouri, if they were to leave to take a spot in the B1G.
My top four contenders would be: Oklahoma State, Louisville, West Virginia and University of South Florida.

Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

True JR, and in that regard "the Alliance"is working to assist the SEC in that they have slowed the further shifting at the P level that we see going on daily at the G level.
But if a fundamental format changes, and 16 with pod scheduling gets the fans excited before basketball is freed there may be a rush for the alliance conferences to fill out to 16. I still have a hard time believing that 1-eighteen is a good number and 2-if there is movement to 18, that UVa and Carolina wouldn't opt for the B1G rather than the SEC.
We'll see. One question would be, what would the Big 12 do if the PAC took BYU and the ACC took Cincinnati?

X, I like 18 for a lot of reasons, but I didn't say we were headed there. If additions are made for hoops and branding 20 will likely be the number. Three new states and four AAU schools would be the objective. And for the same reason UT and OU will be joining the SEC I expect the same reasoning to prevail for UNC:
1. Regionality
2. Culture
3. Disney association (still the premier brand promoter).
4. No buy into a soon to be obsolete cable channel with a long wait for a full
revenue distribution.

(10-26-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 01:30 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

True JR, and in that regard "the Alliance"is working to assist the SEC in that they have slowed the further shifting at the P level that we see going on daily at the G level.
But if a fundamental format changes, and 16 with pod scheduling gets the fans excited before basketball is freed there may be a rush for the alliance conferences to fill out to 16. I still have a hard time believing that 1-eighteen is a good number and 2-if there is movement to 18, that UVa and Carolina wouldn't opt for the B1G rather than the SEC.
We'll see. One question would be, what would the Big 12 do if the PAC took BYU and the ACC took Cincinnati?

X, I like 18 for a lot of reasons, but I didn't say we were headed there. If additions are made for hoops and branding 20 will likely be the number. Three new states and four AAU schools would be the objective. And for the same reason UT and OU will be joining the SEC I expect the same reasoning to prevail for UNC:
1. Regionality
2. Culture
3. Disney association (still the premier brand promoter).
4. No buy into a soon to be obsolete cable channel with a long wait for a full
revenue distribution.

OK, I'll give you 1, 3 & 4.

BTW a pod of Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Kansas might actually give the Vols a chance to win again in football (maybe).

Today is an example of why Division I is too big. There is a Texas basketball game on vs. New Orleans. Score is 77-13. At halftime! One Texas player has 7 3s, more points than the entire other team and she has only played about 8 minutes.

Final was 131-36.

(10-26-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 01:30 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 11:34 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Why X, we would move to 18 with Duke, UNC & UVa.

Barring that:
Missouri is essentially holding the slot once offered to FSU.
South Carolina holds the slot once intended for Clemson.
Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M are all now in the fold.

That said I certainly see a major upside for South Florida. The Gulf Coast location in an area of Florida the Gators don't reach in full, and it opens up even more Southerly recruiting plus the market of Tampa / St Pete, and the potential for cruise football weekends between Austin (Corpus Christi), Baton Rouge (New Orleans), Mobile, and Tampa/St Pete which are tremendous business opportunities. Tie in Biloxi and the potential for synergistic revenue is huge for Disney and the SEC. Besides if there is a conference out there who could take a flyer on a work in progress it's the SEC. And USF's research is growing nicely.

I still like 18 in 3 regional divisions with a best at large for conference semis, but alas I don't think we are headed there. We may be headed instead for 6 conferences of 16. If Missouri wanted to leave I think a lot more dominoes would fall than the ACC would like.

We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

True JR, and in that regard "the Alliance"is working to assist the SEC in that they have slowed the further shifting at the P level that we see going on daily at the G level.
But if a fundamental format changes, and 16 with pod scheduling gets the fans excited before basketball is freed there may be a rush for the alliance conferences to fill out to 16. I still have a hard time believing that 1-eighteen is a good number and 2-if there is movement to 18, that UVa and Carolina wouldn't opt for the B1G rather than the SEC.
We'll see. One question would be, what would the Big 12 do if the PAC took BYU and the ACC took Cincinnati?

X, I like 18 for a lot of reasons, but I didn't say we were headed there. If additions are made for hoops and branding 20 will likely be the number. Three new states and four AAU schools would be the objective. And for the same reason UT and OU will be joining the SEC I expect the same reasoning to prevail for UNC:
1. Regionality
2. Culture
3. Disney association (still the premier brand promoter).
4. No buy into a soon to be obsolete cable channel with a long wait for a full
revenue distribution.

JR, you may be looking too large.
It is without question that three divisions in a conference is superior to two. 18 may be a workable number, and 21 is just too many. You might consider 15 each for the B1G, SEC, and yes the ACC, with 12 being the number for the Big 12 (since they don't seem to want to go away) as well as for the PAC.

(11-16-2021 04:18 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 01:30 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-26-2021 12:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  We do know that the SEC is done. There really isn't anything or anybody that they could add (sans Notre Dame) that could really enhance their revenue. Unless you could get the membership to agree to pay for academic prestige, the SEC doesn't need to make any other moves.
The ACC is fairly simple. If Notre Dame won't move then it's Cincinnati and West Virginia. With Notre Dame, it's the Irish and Cincinnati.
That leaves the B1G in a bind with their AAC "requirement" as only Kansas and Iowa State are available out of the Big 12.
The question then becomes, what does the PAC do?
Since everything with the PAC is in pairs for their networks, I think it could be BYU (then pairing with UTAH), Oklahoma State/Texas Tech to then pair with Colorado, TCU/SMU and Houston.

X, if hoops are liberated from the NCAA and their value doubled, then yes UVa and UNC are worth it. 20 million viewers potentially, brand names (which to casual national viewers matter) and as anchors for a now more lucrative sport where any resultant post season tournament is more than doubled in revenue.

As things stand now you do not hold as much value. As things may become you do.

True JR, and in that regard "the Alliance"is working to assist the SEC in that they have slowed the further shifting at the P level that we see going on daily at the G level.
But if a fundamental format changes, and 16 with pod scheduling gets the fans excited before basketball is freed there may be a rush for the alliance conferences to fill out to 16. I still have a hard time believing that 1-eighteen is a good number and 2-if there is movement to 18, that UVa and Carolina wouldn't opt for the B1G rather than the SEC.
We'll see. One question would be, what would the Big 12 do if the PAC took BYU and the ACC took Cincinnati?

X, I like 18 for a lot of reasons, but I didn't say we were headed there. If additions are made for hoops and branding 20 will likely be the number. Three new states and four AAU schools would be the objective. And for the same reason UT and OU will be joining the SEC I expect the same reasoning to prevail for UNC:
1. Regionality
2. Culture
3. Disney association (still the premier brand promoter).
4. No buy into a soon to be obsolete cable channel with a long wait for a full
revenue distribution.

JR, you may be looking too large.
It is without question that three divisions in a conference is superior to two. 18 may be a workable number, and 21 is just too many. You might consider 15 each for the B1G, SEC, and yes the ACC, with 12 being the number for the Big 12 (since they don't seem to want to go away) as well as for the PAC.

So…Missouri shifts from the SEC to the B1G and either:
1) Notre Dame goes all in with the ACC
2) ACC adds from the XII (Cincinnati or West Virginia, most likely) and the XII adds Memphis or South Florida

It would seem basketball is the last great well of cash that hasn't been tapped. So it probably makes sense to consider how things will play out with the NCAA Tournament and the coming structural changes.

I was traveling recently and had a lot of time to think. It occurred to me that college sports are going through many changes, but perhaps one of them is not yet foreseen.

The schools want dollars at most any cost. Some want to preserve this notion of hybrid amateurism, but some probably realized the boat sunk a long time ago and just want to get out ahead of the inevitable. I realized that one of the great competitors for college sports are pro sports. None of the professional leagues will ever be overtaken, but their market share could be weakened.

I guess what I'm getting at is that a greater degree of professionalism is coming beyond just NIL. If the cards are played right then it will enrich the schools rather than diminish them. It depends, but the major college conferences could grow their popularity among traditional pro sports fans.

With that said, we saw recently that even the A-10 is adding schools. This is a basketball first conference albeit with a lesser reputation than some like the Big East. I think we can all see a separation coming and I think the leagues with genuine ability to make money off basketball know it. They want in on the club, whatever that looks like.

(10-24-2021 11:16 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I posted this on the UConn board...

If the media considers the Big 12 a P5 league after the moves are made...
I am starting to warm on the idea of quietly putting our name in the hat if the league further expands to 14. I thoroughly enjoy being in the Big East for Olympic sports, and I enjoy our football schedule, but I feel that our reluctance to reach out to the Big 12 this go around was due to the fact that we didn't think it would continue to be a power league. If it does continue to be a power league (like the Big East was post-Miami) and they do decide to expand, I think we should entertain a move.

The only viable candidates in my opinion would be the following:
UConn
Boise State
Memphis
USF
SMU
Colorado State

Each of the six has its worts but I think ultimately if we make a push it would be us and USF.

I don't think the league will stomach Boise State and Memphis academically. There is a reason both got left behind.

SMU is in the same footprint as TCU. Unless Texas politics come into play, I don't see it.

Colorado State just doesn't move the needle nationally.

That leaves us and USF. We both have played in a power league before. We would be the best school academically in the league, and the league's footprint would further push eastward.
We arguably have the best athletic department of anybody either in the league or as a candidate, and we have proven we can win in football in a power league.

West: BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma State, Iowa State
East: UConn, WVU, Cincy, UCF, USF, Kansas, Kansas State

shizzle: You are aware that Kansas and Kansas State are southwest of Iowa State, right? Of course, Missouri is in the SEC East, and I have never understood Dallas being in the NFC East.

ACC just has no desire for WVU and the reasons are academics and simply Pitt already has a hold of the largest market. I do believe their TV contract situation is gonna be really dire in comparison in about four years that they may have to bit the bullet and take two. I just can't convince myself if there are two teams available that grow the pot enough and actually fit. In my mind the ACC has no good moves on the board, so they make a move take the best available brands available. OSU and Kansas out of fear of potential moves.

The Big Ten makes overtures at ND and is rebuffed, Big Ten remains unchanged until a couple ACC schools approach in the 2030s

PAC finds itself in the same place the ACC does. No great fits both on the academic and geography scale. They remain unchanged

SEC remains unchanged until two ACC schools approach them in the 2030s. They settle on a final eighteen from the Carolina/Virgina schools

The ACC after being raided is able to convince some of the remaining Texas schools of the Big XII to join the ACC in the 2030s as part of the a Gulf Coast pod and rejoin OSU/KU. Essentially the ACC drops four from its currently lineup and adds six from the Big XII

(05-07-2022 09:47 PM)CFBLurker Wrote:  ACC just has no desire for WVU and the reasons are academics and simply Pitt already has a hold of the largest market. I do believe their TV contract situation is gonna be really dire in comparison in about four years that they may have to bit the bullet and take two. I just can't convince myself if there are two teams available that grow the pot enough and actually fit. In my mind the ACC has no good moves on the board, so they make a move take the best available brands available. OSU and Kansas out of fear of potential moves.

The Big Ten makes overtures at ND and is rebuffed, Big Ten remains unchanged until a couple ACC schools approach in the 2030s

PAC finds itself in the pretty much the same place the ACC does. No great fits both on the academic and geography scale. Hawaii could be considered, but definitely a dark horse pick. They probably remain unchanged.

SEC remains unchanged until four ACC schools approach them in the 2030s. They settle on a final twenty from the Carolina/Virgina/Florida schools

The ACC after being raided is able to convince some of the remaining Texas schools of the Big XII to join the ACC in the 2030s as part of the a Gulf Coast pod and rejoin OSU/KU. Essentially the ACC drops four from its currently lineup and adds six from the Big XII

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Taken in the order of their contract renewals with my strong suggestion that the ACC should make a move as soon as is possible, especially since this is their look in year.

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.




Those 4 open up two large states for the ACC and the ACCN (Ohio and Texas) and 2 new states in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Such a move would include 3 schools which would improve ACC attendance. And, it is a preemptive move which likely takes ACC schools off the menu of the SEC and B1G. Just the attempt would either strengthen ESPN's commitment, or make them tip their hand with regard to the ACC.

Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

This yields some happy and competitive groupings and gives North Carolina and Virginia Schools even more with which to be contented.

This move strengthens the ACC's chances of landing the other half of the Sugar Bowl which will then be played in an ACC city. It distances the ACC from the B12.



2. Big Ten: Likelihood to make additions / 50% if the ACC doesn't add. Much less if they do add. If the ACC adds the B1G is limited to Kansas and Iowa State, and only if they wanted to leave the SEC maybe Missouri.

Best Options: Notre Dame (major value add and football blueblood) and Kansas (AAU and the alleged birthplace of basketball).

An eighteen member ACC is better equipped to weather the loss of N.D.

If Notre Dame is a no, and the ACC has expanded, the Big Ten isn't likely to add at all.




3. The PAC 12: Likelihood to make additions / 30% if they need more inventory, a new time zone to market, and new markets for the PACN. I'd rate chances higher if sports were a major emphasis but past history says additions are not as likely.

If they did opt to expand their best prospects to 16 would be Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and T.C.U. Why? Iowa State and Kansas are AAU and Iowa State is competitive and Kansas is much needed for hoops. Oklahoma State now an R1 Carnegie school is more acceptable than in the past and is the best Athletic Department of any of the remaining 8. Plus Oklahoma State and T.C.U. deliver decent numbers in DFW and Oklahoma. 16 is only practical in a pod system.

Whether the PAC 12 adds or doesn't is, in my opinion, wholly independent of what other conferences do.


4. The New Big 12: Likelihood to make additions / 50% unless the Big 10 raids the ACC's leaders. Then the likelihood goes way up.

Sorry, but they have taken their best 4 options from the AAC and adding 2 more doesn't really add.

But should the ACC not expand, and should a 40 million dollar deficit in media revenue permit the Big 10 to take 2 of, or 4 of, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, then the SEC would be pushed to take some as well.

in that reality the B12 should absolutely go after Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt in the North and Miami, N.C. State, and Clemson & Florida State if available. The added markets and branding would boost them far more than anymore AAC schools.



5. The SEC: Likelihood to make additions: 0% unless the B1G moves to 18 out of the ACC. If the B1G added Notre Dame and Kansas to 16 the SEC would congratulate Kansas, Notre Dame and the Big Ten and remain quite happy with their own 16.

If the Big Ten moves to 18 out of the ACC the SEC likely takes Virginia Tech and would make a play for UNC. Perhaps they consider Duke and North Carolina as a pair. I don't think a move to 18 by the B1G would result in the SEC adding 4 to 20.

That would leave Clemson and FSU for the B12.

The SEC won't breach the ACC unless somebody else has already and the only one capable of it is the Big 10.

The only potential scenario I see for the SEC going after ACC schools might happen if Missouri and Kansas moved to the B1G. That would leave a slot with which to entice Duke, Virginia and North Carolina as a threesome. I find the likelihood of this to be remote. ESPN would likely be amenable however because the ACC without them would be much more flexible where new members would be concerned.

These are my thoughts about coming realignment options and potentialities.

If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.

The SEC to stage their own playoff?
Bilas suggested the ACC and SEC merge.

If you combined an 18 team ACC with a 16 team SEC what could you possibly accomplish? Evidently a lot.

Battle lines are being drawn. Threats are being leveled across the college landscape. Where would you go to survive and which institutions would you trust?

Let's look at #1 for just a moment:

1. ACC: Likelihood they make additions / 30% chance. Why? Most additions would be market adds and they remain in Irish limbo, not quite in Heaven but outside of Hell with 5 ND games a year.

My recommendation: Add Baylor, Tulane, Cincinnati, and West Virginia

Why? Baylor, Cincinnati, and West Virginia strengthen the ACC in all 3 major sports (basketball, and football) and would add challengers which have proven to be annually competitive. Tulane and Cincinnati bring solid markets and New Orleans is a destination city which bridges Louisiana and Texas to Florida across the small peninsulas of Alabama and Mississippi.

West Virginia attacks the B1G in the NE, negating some of the Penn State influence in that region.
Cincinnati plants an ESPN flag in a B1G state and along with Notre Dame presents a constant ESPN thorn in the B1G's side.
Tulane....a hand in glove fit for the academic minded schools in the ACC. New Orleans, a destination city and a rest stop on the way to Texas and access to 29 million pair of eyeballs.
Logistically balanced (two north of the Tar Heel State, which is the fulcrum of the ACC, and two to the South).

ESPN is a sneaky bunch, I wouldn't put anything past them.

It takes 2 parties to make a split happen easily. Unfortunately even G5 leadership entrusted to look after the best interest in the grouping want nothing else but to sell out on the P5's interest.

In the very unlikely event a serious split discussion will ever happen it will be based on the economic realities of the time. It certainly won't be an inclusion of every program in the 1980's CFA agreement. That is the most stupid of all the stupid ideas on here as the state of CFB in 1985 has no bearing on where things are today.

(05-27-2022 04:28 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  It takes 2 parties to make a split happen easily. Unfortunately even G5 leadership entrusted to look after the best interest in the grouping want nothing else but to sell out on the P5's interest.

In the very unlikely event a serious split discussion will ever happen it will be based on the economic realities of the time. It certainly won't be an inclusion of every program in the 1980's CFA agreement. That is the most stupid of all the stupid ideas on here as the state of CFB in 1985 has no bearing on where things are today.

Whiff! It will happen to monetize hoops and discussions on when, and how, are underway. It will be facilitated and organized around market dominance preferences of Networks and their cash will be the cause. I agree it won't have much to do with the CFA, or even the P5, but basketball can earn 2.25 x more revenue if not under the NCAA and that is enough to create separation.

Put another way, the P5 and top hoops programs have very few shared self interests with the NCAA and when that happens separation occurs.

(05-27-2022 04:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-27-2022 04:28 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  It takes 2 parties to make a split happen easily. Unfortunately even G5 leadership entrusted to look after the best interest in the grouping want nothing else but to sell out on the P5's interest.

In the very unlikely event a serious split discussion will ever happen it will be based on the economic realities of the time. It certainly won't be an inclusion of every program in the 1980's CFA agreement. That is the most stupid of all the stupid ideas on here as the state of CFB in 1985 has no bearing on where things are today.

Whiff! It will happen to monetize hoops and discussions on when, and how, are underway. It will be facilitated and organized around market dominance preferences of Networks and their cash will be the cause. I agree it won't have much to do with the CFA, or even the P5, but basketball can earn 2.25 x more revenue if not under the NCAA and that is enough to create separation.

I don't know how it will be done but it most certain won't be done along the lines of the CFA members in. Too much has changed since that time. But I know for most of the fans here that was the glory era.

(10-14-2021 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  If you respond don't say "this will never happen." Some of you said that about Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Rather state how you see it playing out and most importantly why you believe it.[/b]

I think the SEC is done expanding. 16 is enough either with a 3-6-6 divisionless schedule or a 3-4-1 4-pods schedule.

B1G will only expand if they can get ND and I think they can by 2036 at the latest. It may happen sooner if the ACC is abundantly compensated.

When ND joins they'll need 1 more to go to 16. UNC Duke and UVA know that losing only 1-team will not doom the ACC, so they stay put. GT maybe, but by this time I think the B1G go with the most valuable program and that's FSU (they do have to change their bylaw about adjacent states).

The SEC threatens to add 4-20 schools to keep the B1G out of the south but the B1G makes it clear they are only adding 2 schools. So the SEC doesn't expand in defense mode.

That leaves the ACC with 13. They add 3, Baylor, Cincy and Houston. Going to a 3-6-6 or 1-7-7 divisionless schedule. The 2 best teams available in Texas and the best team available, Cincy.

The Big 12 who previously added Boise State and Memphis when Tex/OKL left to go to 14, are down to 11-teams and add San Diego State, USF, Temple, SMU, and UNLV (I'm expecting Las Vegas to become a big sports town by 2036) (Colorado State if not UNLV). Goes to 3-6-6 scheduling. All this is cloudy. Just a best guess based on current program realignment values. 16-team conference providing lots of content becomes the standard.

Pac-12 stays at 12. No possible additions really add to their average media value.

That's my best guess as of May 27, 2022.

Edit : Best guess ACC 1-7-7 divisionless scheduling permanent partners :
BC -Cuse
Cincy - Louisville
UVA-VT
UNC-Duke
NCST-Wake
GT-Clemson
Houston-Baylor
Miami-Pitt

Best Guess SEC pods :
Fla, UGA, USC, UK
Ala, Aub, Tenn, Vandy
aTm, LSU, Miss, Miss St.
Tex, Okl, Ark, Mizzou

Edit2 : Or instead of FSU going to the B1G, the B1G takes Mizzou and the SEC takes FSU. Everything else stays the same.