We're all making the assumption that the AAC will eventually have to add teams. We all know there are teams willing to sell their school's presidents children to get into the conference. It's been over a month now since the Big XII bitchslapped the AAC and took who they wanted. Two weeks since the MWC bitchslapped the AAC and told them hands off!

So what is really going on over in AAC land? What is the hold up with inviting programs?

If I had to guess, I think it is determining how many to add, who to add, and then if those targets can afford it.

If the AAC is determined to enforce some sort of required budget as part of a move, then most of C-USA, SBC, and MAC are immediately out of the picture.

UAB is the closest thing to a lock, but I bet they want to announce that move with at least one other program to get to 10.

Probably working with Judy on the merger idea.

I think they don't want to oversaturate their limited pool.

Additionally, trying to appease ESPN and the programs intact.

I don't expect to hear word on additions until the end of the season.

(10-14-2021 08:44 AM)freshtop Wrote:  If I had to guess, I think it is determining how many to add, who to add, and then if those targets can afford it.

If the AAC is determined to enforce some sort of required budget as part of a move, then most of C-USA, SBC, and MAC are immediately out of the picture.

UAB is the closest thing to a lock, but I bet they want to announce that move with at least one other program to get to 10.

Based on what Aresco told the Memphis beat writer, it should be less than a month but probably a couple of weeks? I think they have an idea who they want to add, and they are giving those prospects time to look at their books to see if they can meet the financial and travel expenses and all the other criteria of the AAC? Whatever that looks like?

Hopefully we'll all get some closure soon and everyone can move on with their lives in whatever situation they find themselves.

(10-14-2021 08:44 AM)freshtop Wrote:  If I had to guess, I think it is determining how many to add, who to add, and then if those targets can afford it.

If the AAC is determined to enforce some sort of required budget as part of a move, then most of C-USA, SBC, and MAC are immediately out of the picture.

UAB is the closest thing to a lock, but I bet they want to announce that move with at least one other program to get to 10.

Well according to the AAC commissioner, I would expect an announcement soon who they are adding. Tells me should be soon and they already know who they are adding I would think.

From the Memphis bball beat writer on 10.13 that I put on a different thread. Doesn't answer the what or why, but does help with the when.

https://twitter.com/munzly/status/1448310570852179974

Quote:Aresco on AAC realignment timeline: "Within the next few weeks to a month."

https://twitter.com/munzly/status/1448309830419197953

Quote:I asked Aresco abt CUSA's proposal to AAC.
"I think we've stated a few times that we're not really interested in discussing any kind of merger or conference realignment. At this point, I don't want to say much about it. We did receive a letter. We'll respond to it very shortly."

(10-14-2021 08:45 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Probably working with Judy on the merger idea.

LOL. I wish.

It seems to me (like others have said) they are feeling out who to add and how many. My guess is that they will add 4. UAB seems like a lock. Charlotte is gaining steam. They need another Texas team for Navy (Rice). The holdup is probably who team #4 is. My guess is it is between Marshall, ODU, App State, and Buffalo. I have a feeling the AAC wants to avoid state directionals.

Getting the remaining 8 to agree on which schools to add. They will have no shortage of schools to add within their footprint. Couple of weeks I'll bet they add 2 and wait to see if any mwc schools change thei minds.

It's also logistics.

Presidents probably need meetings with each other, and need meetings with their own AD's and Board of Directors, to hash out things.

For example, Marshall, whose name has bounced around a lot in realignment threads. I'm sure there is much internal discussion on whether it's a good move, if they can afford to and where that money will come from, and perhaps who else is coming with them to make the move worthwhile. Which means waiting on another school's decision, etc. Getting all the ducks in a row before anything official.

Meanwhile the AAC has to wait on Marshall (for example) to determine whether they want to, or whether they can, before they can relay that info to other schools or make their other decisions, based on what's best for what they're trying to achieve.

Look at the message boards, we have discussed this a lot amongst ourselves. The schools need to do it even moreso, honestly hahah armed with more reliable information but also more politics

(10-14-2021 09:00 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  It seems to me (like others have said) they are feeling out who to add and how many. My guess is that they will add 4. UAB seems like a lock. Charlotte is gaining steam. They need another Texas team for Navy (Rice). The holdup is probably who team #4 is. My guess is it is between Marshall, ODU, App State, and Buffalo. I have a feeling the AAC wants to avoid state directionals.

I think they'll leave the Sunbelt alone. That's an ESPN entity that will not be damaged. CUSA is the dead meat this time around.

I think the upcoming PAC 12 tv deal comes into play. One reason why I think the Big XII is waiting to invite Boise and Memphis is because they want to see what the PAC 12 will get for their new deal which is up after the 2023 season. Word is the PAC 12 could fetch close to a six billion deal from the networks. Question is those that includes just the current 12 schools or some additions. The talk is the networks want as much inventory as possible which could result in the P5 going to a 9-game conference schedule.

The Big XII may feel they could lose another team or two which would have a trickle down affect with the MWC and AAC being in the line of fire once again. If the plan is still for Cincy, UCF, and Houston to join the Big XII in 2023 then I expect something to happen by the end of the year if not early 2022.

I don’t think they’re in any rush to add the teams that have been rumored. UAB/Charlotte/Rice/FAU/UTSA/Marshall or anybody else in CUSA would jump at the opportunity be it today or in 3 years. I think they wait and see how things develop to see who’s available before making a move.

That aside, knowing that the AAC will likely lose Memphis/USF and Navy/SMU/Tulsa, what would even be the point of joining? Respectfully, cause we suck hard at everything, I don’t see a point in joining a conference with an equally crappy base of ECU, Temple, and Tulane.

My gut tells me it will be UAB and Rice to start. I think Buffalo will get a hard look as well, if ESPN agrees they add value. After that its a real crapshoot.

(10-14-2021 09:05 AM)2009panther Wrote:  I don’t think they’re in any rush to add the teams that have been rumored. UAB/Charlotte/Rice/FAU/UTSA/Marshall or anybody else in CUSA would jump at the opportunity be it today or in 3 years. I think they wait and see how things develop to see who’s available before making a move.

That aside, knowing that the AAC will likely lose Memphis/USF and Navy/SMU/Tulsa, what would even be the point of joining? Respectfully, cause we suck hard at everything, I don’t see a point in joining a conference with an equally crappy base of ECU, Temple, and Tulane.

Which makes you think that Aresco has to be thinking long term as well. Is he worried about losing three or more schools in the next year or two? He has to be.

(10-14-2021 09:02 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 09:00 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  It seems to me (like others have said) they are feeling out who to add and how many. My guess is that they will add 4. UAB seems like a lock. Charlotte is gaining steam. They need another Texas team for Navy (Rice). The holdup is probably who team #4 is. My guess is it is between Marshall, ODU, App State, and Buffalo. I have a feeling the AAC wants to avoid state directionals.

I think they'll leave the Sunbelt alone. That's an ESPN entity that will not be damaged. CUSA is the dead meat this time around.

This is true. The MWC and CUSA are not ESPN properties per se. The MAC and Sunbelt won't change. The AAC is asking a lot from its potential candidates, which is a good thing because it means major investment in Athletics. The issue is that it may have thinned out the herd a little too much.

(10-14-2021 08:56 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  

Quote:I asked Aresco abt CUSA's proposal to AAC.
"We did receive a letter. We'll respond to it very shortly."

Yeah. RETURN TO SENDER

(10-14-2021 09:10 AM)freshtop Wrote:  My gut tells me it will be UAB and Rice to start. I think Buffalo will get a hard look as well, if ESPN agrees they add value. After that its a real crapshoot.

My guess is that Rice is hoping for the MWC since that seems to me a more stable conference than the AAC. I'm thinking the MWC takes 2 from CUSA in TX with Rice and UTSA/UNT (but not UTEP even though it makes the most sense from a location standpoint) and then the AAC takes 2 from CUSA with UAB being one of them. Then CUSA adds JMU and Liberty.

(10-14-2021 09:02 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 09:00 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  It seems to me (like others have said) they are feeling out who to add and how many. My guess is that they will add 4. UAB seems like a lock. Charlotte is gaining steam. They need another Texas team for Navy (Rice). The holdup is probably who team #4 is. My guess is it is between Marshall, ODU, App State, and Buffalo. I have a feeling the AAC wants to avoid state directionals.

I think they'll leave the Sunbelt alone. That's an ESPN entity that will not be damaged. CUSA is the dead meat this time around.

I think this might be the issue. If AAC takes 4 from C-USA, they open themselves to criticism that this is just C-USA 2.1.

I think Aresco may be trying to separate from that criticism. Is Liberty a wild card? If they are looking at Sunbelt, is that Coastal Carolina or Georgia State?

I would not be surprised if the announcement is Buffalo, UAB, Georgia State, and Rice or UTSA. That’s a different look, pulling from three other G5s, and helping the AAC “tweener” dialogue.