(09-21-2021 06:31 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 11:32 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I've been making the assumption that UTEP would pretty much join the MWC if they got an invite at any point, but am I overstating that? They have shown more of an interest in being associated with a Texas based conference than a Mountain/Pacific time zone conference going all the way back to when they joined C-USA in the first place.

No expert on UTEP but have to think a CUSA that doesn’t have SMU or Houston is already less interesting and if the speculation pans out that UTSA is going to AAC, it becomes even less interesting.

There were claims some time back that Rice and UTEP asked to present their case to join MWC and weren’t offered that opportunity.

In another thread, someone speculates that AFA and CSU pulled out because MWC had agreed to add teams in Texas.

Now I can see AFA thinking, 8 hour bus rides to UTEP aren’t a bad thing. I would think New Mexico would be reluctant to lose UTEP as a regular non-conference date and there would be a lot of resistance around MWC to adding two schools who are shall we say troubled in football.

I don’t know why Rice would want to go back west and no one else in Texas in CUSA is earth shaking as an add.

Seems the whole idea of MWC going to Texas is forced, and better fits realignment speculation than realignment reality.

For MWC and expansion, its Texas or bust. Their choices are NMSU, UTEP, UNT, UTSA, Rice and Texas St. They simply are not going to go with North Dakota St. or Montana. MWC is not an entry level conference. And they already have Wyoming, a school in a tiny population state with limited upside. They don't need another one. UC Davis has no fan support, so they couldn't move up. There's nowhere to go but Texas. And its closer to most of the conference than NDSU.

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 06:35 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  It seems odd to me that a pool of Texas schools deemed terrible additions if AAC were to take them despite the proximity to AAC footprint, are also being touted as good adds for MWC when none but UTEP are in proximity to the MWC footprint.

I don’t think it’s forced. Thompson said there are multiple schools in the MWC that want to expand to 14. Unless you believe they’d be willing to add NMSU and make another run at Gonzaga, then Texas seems the most logical place to look—especially because Rice and UNT already had discussions about joining.

For the record, I don’t think those schools would be terrible additions to the American, although I think UNT’s location hurts their chances.

Maybe both Dakota twins are on the docket to go to 14? It could push Boise State to the west for now since that is where their rivals are at. UNR, Fresno State, San Jose State and Hawaii is their rivals, and not playing them every year did hurt the MWC a bit for not having the heated rivalry.

I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

Absolutely, which is why Rice, UTEP, and UNT were in communication with the MWC a few years back.

(09-23-2021 10:21 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 09:57 PM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t think it’s forced. Thompson said there are multiple schools in the MWC that want to expand to 14. Unless you believe they’d be willing to add NMSU and make another run at Gonzaga, then Texas seems the most logical place to look—especially because Rice and UNT already had discussions about joining.

For the record, I don’t think those schools would be terrible additions to the American, although I think UNT’s location hurts their chances.

Maybe both Dakota twins are on the docket to go to 14? It could push Boise State to the west for now since that is where their rivals are at. UNR, Fresno State, San Jose State and Hawaii is their rivals, and not playing them every year did hurt the MWC a bit for not having the heated rivalry.

I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

Absolutely, which is why Rice, UTEP, and UNT were in communication with the MWC a few years back.

That was before the MWC signed the new TV deal though.

Both the MWC and AAC may have to go smaller to preserve TV money.

(09-23-2021 10:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 10:21 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Maybe both Dakota twins are on the docket to go to 14? It could push Boise State to the west for now since that is where their rivals are at. UNR, Fresno State, San Jose State and Hawaii is their rivals, and not playing them every year did hurt the MWC a bit for not having the heated rivalry.

I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

Absolutely, which is why Rice, UTEP, and UNT were in communication with the MWC a few years back.

That was before the MWC signed the new TV deal though.

Both the MWC and AAC may have to go smaller to preserve TV money.

I think there is a reason both conferences are intrigued by adding new time zones.

(09-23-2021 09:48 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  From what I've been seeing lately it sounds like it could just be CSU/AFA to the AAC to 10 members. It may be due to not having an adequate 12th team.

That might also keep the MWC at 10 without being able to find two schools that can keep the TV deal up on average.

What would have happened if realignment hit before the AAC and MWC signed their TV deals? Could be a totally different outcome.

I don't think the MW sits at 9 full members because it forces a 16-game basketball schedule and MW teams have already been complaining about difficulty with OOC scheduling. Assuming they can't talk Gonzaga into moving, it'd create an interesting situation.

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

(09-23-2021 10:35 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:48 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  From what I've been seeing lately it sounds like it could just be CSU/AFA to the AAC to 10 members. It may be due to not having an adequate 12th team.

That might also keep the MWC at 10 without being able to find two schools that can keep the TV deal up on average.

What would have happened if realignment hit before the AAC and MWC signed their TV deals? Could be a totally different outcome.

I don't think the MW sits at 9 full members because it forces a 16-game basketball schedule and MW teams have already been complaining about difficulty with OOC scheduling. Assuming they can't talk Gonzaga into moving, it'd create an interesting situation.

SDSU is in favor of a 16 Game hoops schedule. Fisher/Dutcher wanted fewer conference games to have more flexibility to schedule OOC. However, that is not how the majority of the conference felt as they went to 20 game season.

Plus we just saw the flagship of Idaho move down, which is what, the first school to do that voluntarily in like 40 years? Or ever? When has a school voluntarily moved down and not closed shop like the Cali schools?

McNeese State maybe. They qualified and opted for 1-AA and the Southland. Dayton is another in the late 70’s.

N/M

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

I don’t think it’s that simple. Fan support matters, and football and basketball attendance at both the University of Montana and North Dakota State are better than at a lot of FBS schools.

Wyoming is a comparable school that does just fine as an FBS program in a state with a larger area and less population than either of the Dakotas. Also the state is about a third smaller but only has a little more than half the population of Montana. So by those metrics it would certainly be feasible for the Dakotas and Montana to support an FBS program or two. It’s just a matter of the right FCS programs being given the opportunity to make the move and choosing to embrace it.

And just for the record, I’m not suggesting a move into the Dakotas and Montana would be the MWC’s best option. But if circumstances led them to look in that direction and the MWC ended up “owning” two more states in the same way they already own five (Wyoming, New Mexico, Idaho, Nevada, Hawaii), I wouldn’t consider it a disaster for the conference by any means.

(09-20-2021 10:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  That's worst case scenario for CUSA as they are left with a bunch of eastern schools, LA Tech, USM and UTEP.

It would actually be ideal for CUSA

(09-23-2021 01:04 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

I don’t think it’s that simple. Fan support matters, and football and basketball attendance at both the University of Montana and North Dakota State are better than at a lot of FBS schools.

Wyoming is a comparable school that does just fine as an FBS program in a state with a larger area and less population than either of the Dakotas. Also the state is about a third smaller but only has a little more than half the population of Montana. So by those metrics it would certainly be feasible for the Dakotas and Montana to support an FBS program or two. It’s just a matter of the right FCS programs being given the opportunity to make the move and choosing to embrace it.

And just for the record, I’m not suggesting a move into the Dakotas and Montana would be the MWC’s best option. But if circumstances led them to look in that direction and the MWC ended up “owning” two more states in the same way they already own five (Wyoming, New Mexico, Idaho, Nevada, Hawaii), I wouldn’t consider it a disaster for the conference by any means.

Fan support matters to the individual school. It only matters to a conference if that fan support extends outside the stadium and includes an above-average number of fans who will watch on TV and boost the conference's TV value. Those low-population states have a far-below-average number of people and TV homes.

Montana isn't comparable to Wyoming as an athletic department. Wyoming's athletic budget is more than twice Montana's, and that $24 million/year gap can't be attributed to $3 million/year in MWC TV revenue. Wyoming's program is much better supported. Maybe Wyoming's TV value is in the bottom half of the MWC, but even if that is so, it doesn't make an argument for Montana, because a prospective new member only adds value if they are above average, not if they are just slightly more valuable to the conference than the least valuable current members.

(09-23-2021 01:11 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 10:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  That's worst case scenario for CUSA as they are left with a bunch of eastern schools, LA Tech, USM and UTEP.

It would actually be ideal for CUSA

WKU
MTSU
UNCC
FIU
FAU
LATech
UTEP

With some JaxSt and Missouri State thrown in could work.

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

This is such a dumb argument. It gets old and I'm embarrassed for those who offer it and for any conferences that still abide by it. Chasing markets rather than fan support and success on the field is stupid. Never mind that NDSU has significant fan support and radio network coverage in Minnesota (with 6 million people), where roughly half of NDSU students come from (as well as a sizeable share of NDSU players). The fact is, if the MWC is a football conference, picking Rice over NDSU is suicide.

If I were UTEP's administration I would rather leave than get stuck in an even worse C-USA than they are now. I'd try to join the WAC for olympic sports and play indy football like NMSU. I can't imagine being a UTEP fan and your closest conference opponent be Louisiana Tech and MTSU.

(09-23-2021 01:11 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 10:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  That's worst case scenario for CUSA as they are left with a bunch of eastern schools, LA Tech, USM and UTEP.

It would actually be ideal for CUSA

not with UTEP.

It would be manageable but UTEP would clearly be the black sheep

(09-23-2021 01:47 PM)NDSUGopher Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

This is such a dumb argument. It gets old and I'm embarrassed for those who offer it and for any conferences that still abide by it. Chasing markets rather than fan support and success on the field is stupid. Never mind that NDSU has significant fan support and radio network coverage in Minnesota (with 6 million people), where roughly half of NDSU students come from (as well as a sizeable share of NDSU players). The fact is, if the MWC is a football conference, picking Rice over NDSU is suicide.

There’s merit to both arguments - I wouldn’t say Wedge’s argument is dumb. It’s a different philosophy to expansion and one both the B1G and SEC utilized in the last round of realignment (albeit over a decade ago and times do change.)

There are a lot more considerations than fan support and success. Rice offers a large city with easy access, recruiting hotbed (Texas), and academics rivaled by very few. Whether or not those should be highly valued by the MWC is a different conversation but they are legitimate concerns.

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

State population may be a factor, but there has to be more to it than just population alone, since Wyoming is the least populous state in the U.S.

#43 Montana 1,095,004 (almost twice Wyoming's population)
#44 Rhode Isand 1,061,509
#45 Delaware 990,334
#46 South Dakota 896,581
#47 North Dakota 770,026
#48 Alaska 724, 357
#49 Vermont 623,251
#50 Wyoming 581,075

https://worldpopulationreview.com/states

(09-23-2021 03:00 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 01:47 PM)NDSUGopher Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 12:06 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 09:24 AM)Bogg Wrote:  

(09-22-2021 10:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  I agree Boise State fits better in the West but I doubt those Dakota schools want to play FBS. Is there an effort there to move up? I would think Montana is more likely.

I imagine moving into Texas would be much more attractive to the MW than moving into The Empty Quarter would be.

The total population of Montana and the two Dakotas combined is less than 2.8 million people scattered over 295,000 square miles of land.

So in a land area larger than the state of Texas, Montana and the Dakotas have a combined population that is less than 40% of the population of the Houston metro area (also less than 40% of the population of the DFW metro area).

Those facts ought to put to rest any notion of the Mountain West adding schools from Montana or the Dakotas. For that matter, they ought to put to rest the notion of any schools in those states moving to FBS.

This is such a dumb argument. It gets old and I'm embarrassed for those who offer it and for any conferences that still abide by it. Chasing markets rather than fan support and success on the field is stupid. Never mind that NDSU has significant fan support and radio network coverage in Minnesota (with 6 million people), where roughly half of NDSU students come from (as well as a sizeable share of NDSU players). The fact is, if the MWC is a football conference, picking Rice over NDSU is suicide.

There’s merit to both arguments - I wouldn’t say Wedge’s argument is dumb. It’s a different philosophy to expansion and one both the B1G and SEC utilized in the last round of realignment (albeit over a decade ago and times do change.)

There are a lot more considerations than fan support and success. Rice offers a large city with easy access, recruiting hotbed (Texas), and academics rivaled by very few. Whether or not those should be highly valued by the MWC is a different conversation but they are legitimate concerns.

I would agree that Rice academics blows everyone out of the water. Excellent school. But who owns the hearts of football fans in Houston. Not Rice. You'll find more fans of Univ of Texas, Texas A&M, Univ of Houston, Baylor, and just about everyone else before you will find Rice football fans. My mom lives in Houston. Rice isn't on TV. No one talks about them. I mean, like at all.

(09-23-2021 01:35 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(09-23-2021 01:11 PM)GreenBison Wrote:  [quote='solohawks' pid='17659429' dateline='1632193344']
That's worst case scenario for CUSA as they are left with a bunch of eastern schools, LA Tech, USM and UTEP.

It would actually be ideal for CUSA

WKU
MTSU
Charlotte
FIU
FAU
LATech
UTEP

Add Marshall, Southern Miss, Liberty, JMU and you have it correct.