Thompson has every reason to downplay AAC numbers and give the lowest possible numbers for AAC, as that stabilizes his conference more. Of course he is going to give the low end of figures. For what reason would he give the upper end of numbers the AAC might get. Think about it. Use your brain.

(09-20-2021 09:03 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:55 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:52 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:15 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:13 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Not well ahead, but slightly ahead, and makes me feel much better that my concerns about the deal being slashed to 2-3 million a year aren't likely rooted in any reality. If he thought that was possible you best believe he'd be throwing that out there that the MWC could be making more money than the AAC after this.

I thought the MWC is about $3m per. Am I wrong?

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It's about $4M annually per school.

I keep seeing that figure and don’t know where it comes from. It’s been reported in the media that the MWC’s five year deal with CBS and Fox is worth $270 million, and all but about $2 million of that is split just 11 ways since Hawaii has a separate five-year PPV deal with Spectrum worth about $16 million. So doing the math, $268 million divided by five is $54 million per year, divided by 11 schools is $4.9 million per school. Boise State gets a larger cut (an extra $1.8 million per year) but even after accounting for that the remaining members should be receiving $4.5-$4.7 million per year. Perhaps they’re getting just $4 million now since they’re in the first year of the contract but if so it will escalate to over $5 million by the fifth year.

Maybe it's not apples to apples. Maybe MWC fans are comparing their total conference distributions to AAC media payouts?

No, that's just the TV money. Doesn't include bowl earnings, NCAA tournament credits or CFP money distributions.

A couple million bucks for a school like CSU with over 20k undergrads is an additional under $50 student athletic fee per semester. That’s a night out in Fort Collins. Eastern exposure, eastern/central time zones, eastern/southern recruiting are a thing. $2 mm doesn’t move the needle.

(09-20-2021 08:10 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Those brands lost are still much better than any potential adds such as UAB, AFA and Colorado St.

Those brands are also much better than Memphis, SMU and USF. Clearly.

The only spin I see is from your end.

All true, yet Thompson is still openly admitting that even with what is surely the lowest number he's heard regarding AAC TV value it's still worth more than the MWC.

(09-20-2021 09:29 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Thompson has every reason to downplay AAC numbers and give the lowest possible numbers for AAC, as that stabilizes his conference more. Of course he is going to give the low end of figures. For what reason would he give the upper end of numbers the AAC might get. Think about it. Use your brain.

Of course he is, and the lowest possible number he can throw out there by his own admission in the linked article is still higher than the MWC payout. I mean seriously this is his literal quote in the article.

“They have been told simply by the departure of those three schools, their average annual value drops to mid-$40 million,” Thompson said of the total AAC payout. “The Mountain West is $40 million. It’s a push. So you’re not going there for TV money. What are you going there for?"

So seriously even if he's telling the 100% truth and not picking the lowest possible range of estimates he's still openly admitting the AAC is going to be worth a little more than the MWC if they lose no one to the AAC. Takes like 2 brain cells to realize that calculus changes both directions if CSU and AFA join.

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

lol...He has no idea what the AAC deal is. Hell---he doesnt even know what in his own TV deal half the time. This is the same guy that thought BYU rebroadcast rights were in the TV deal and they weren't. This is the same guy that seriously thought the merged MW-CUSA conference would get two NCAA auto-bids. This is the same guy that thought he could just end the Boise special deal by saying it was over. While Im sure commissioners know much more than common fans about conferences---Im often amazed by things that are legitimately right in their wheel house that conference commissioners apparently dont know.

(09-21-2021 12:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

lol...He has no idea what the AAC deal is. Hell---he doesnt even know what in his own TV deal half the time. This is the same guy that thought BYU rebroadcast rights were in the TV deal and they weren't. This is the same guy that seriously thought the merged MW-CUSA conference would get two NCAA auto-bids. While Im sure they know much more than common fans about conferences---Im often amazed by things that are right in their wheel house that they dont know.

You’ve moved up. It’s ok to call aresco out on his 8 years of bs.

(09-20-2021 08:32 PM)VCE Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:26 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Sorry, UCF, Houston and Cincy are three of the four best teams in the AAC. That is a huge hit. It would be for any conference. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I guess maybe I'm in the spin zone too, but seems kind of self-fulfilling. If the Big 12 had picked up Houston, SMU, and USF, people would be calling those three the best brands and would be pointing out "how much population you're losing" or something dumb.

I’m pretty sure we would all be scratching our heads and asking why SMU over Cincy and why USF over UCF. And I prefer USF as an institution, but man did they squander a huge opportunity.

I hate to say it but I think you are right.

UCF is going to use the XII money to jack up its budget. If the ACC comes calling they are going to be comparing UCF to USF and take UCF because of its budget.

(09-21-2021 12:32 AM)VCE Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 12:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

lol...He has no idea what the AAC deal is. Hell---he doesnt even know what in his own TV deal half the time. This is the same guy that thought BYU rebroadcast rights were in the TV deal and they weren't. This is the same guy that seriously thought the merged MW-CUSA conference would get two NCAA auto-bids. While Im sure they know much more than common fans about conferences---Im often amazed by things that are right in their wheel house that they dont know.

You’ve moved up. It’s ok to call aresco out on his 8 years of bs.

Coug is not wrong though. I'm a big oresco skeptic, but hair Thompson has a pretty embarrassing track record too.

So the AAC after losses = MWC as is. If you add 2 or 3, from upper 1/2 MWC, The reduction in value will be considerably less. Pretty real chance ESPN would leave the deal almost flat. Travel for Col schools wouldn't be much worse than now, And dipping into Tex and FL may do wonders for recruiting.

(09-21-2021 12:32 AM)VCE Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 12:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

lol...He has no idea what the AAC deal is. Hell---he doesnt even know what in his own TV deal half the time. This is the same guy that thought BYU rebroadcast rights were in the TV deal and they weren't. This is the same guy that seriously thought the merged MW-CUSA conference would get two NCAA auto-bids. While Im sure they know much more than common fans about conferences---Im often amazed by things that are right in their wheel house that they dont know.

You’ve moved up. It’s ok to call aresco out on his 8 years of bs.

Those two statements seem to be in conflict with each other. Aresco is full of BS, and you are now a power school. Aresco could have sat on his tail and not lobbied for programs that were all called up over every other G5 conference.

(09-20-2021 07:04 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

It's also a very safe assumption he's throwing out the lowest number he's heard. Considering the tone of that article he's certainly not throwing out the ceiling of AAC TV numbers. The fact that his lowball number in his spinning interview he threw out there is less than what the MWC makes by his own admission is a pretty bad sign.

Yes. Pretty bad sign. I haven't put much stock into the MW->AAC move until Thompson started yapping.

He better be putting together a 4-team CTZ expansion plan to counter. Grab Memphis, SMU, Tulane, and UTSA to cripple the American. Add no-exit fees until 2026 to lure Memphis. And, after the Big 12 becomes the Big 14, the Mountain West is insulated. Keeping the 4 front-range schools together is of value to AFA and CSU, and it is something the WAC-16 could not give them.

(09-21-2021 08:01 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  So the AAC after losses = MWC as is. If you add 2 or 3, from upper 1/2 MWC, The reduction in value will be considerably less. Pretty real chance ESPN would leave the deal almost flat. Travel for Col schools wouldn't be much worse than now, And dipping into Tex and FL may do wonders for recruiting.

Actually worth slightly more if you take Thompson's word for it on the numbers (and you should take those numbers as the floor not the ceiling). Thompson did more to encourage me this has legs than anything else. Thompson is on the one hand trying to trash Aresco and say why would you want to leave while admitting that on the lowest end of the spectrum the AAC is still worth slightly more without any MWC additions and that they are coming up with plans if 2 members leave.

(09-21-2021 08:01 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  So the AAC after losses = MWC as is. If you add 2 or 3, from upper 1/2 MWC, The reduction in value will be considerably less. Pretty real chance ESPN would leave the deal almost flat. Travel for Col schools wouldn't be much worse than now, And dipping into Tex and FL may do wonders for recruiting.

AAC probably won't take a cut once it lines up its 4 members.

Without replacement mid 40's which is still $5.6 million per on ESPN for an 8 member FB playing conference.

But CSU and AFA I believe are going mostly for the academics which are higher across the board in the AAC.

(09-20-2021 07:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...rado-state

MWC commissioner claims he's heard the loss of 3 drops AAC value to mid 40s. That would be a little over $5 million a school.

This is amid the speculation that Air Force and Colorado St. are talking with the AAC.

So this number is before AF and CSU move and is still higher than the MWC payout as is. LOL.

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(09-20-2021 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Sorry, UCF, Houston and Cincy are three of the four best teams in the AAC. That is a huge hit. It would be for any conference. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

It depends on the gap between the teams. UCF, Houston and Cincy could be both (a) the three most valuable brands in the AAC and also (b) not much more valuable than the AAC average.

UCF, Houston and Cincy didn't necessarily have to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the AAC. They may have just had to be a head above. Or a hairline above.

I personally think they were a hairline above.

(09-21-2021 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Sorry, UCF, Houston and Cincy are three of the four best teams in the AAC. That is a huge hit. It would be for any conference. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

It depends on the gap between the teams. UCF, Houston and Cincy could be both (a) the three most valuable brands in the AAC and also (b) not much more valuable than the AAC average.

UCF, Houston and Cincy didn't necessarily have to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the AAC. They may have just had to be a head above. Or a hairline above.

I personally think they were a hairline above.

You've said that, but someone has to offset the low end schools. We all know that there are multiple low TV value schools in the conference that have to be offset by the top ones. The TV contract showed which ones were the top value schools, as that allowed them to exit the deal should any of the 3 schools leave.

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(09-20-2021 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Sorry, UCF, Houston and Cincy are three of the four best teams in the AAC. That is a huge hit. It would be for any conference. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

It is a huge hit, that's why Thompson has heard from at least someone the low end of the number the AAC could drop to, but that floor of the number he's heard he even admits out of his own mouth is still a little more than what the MWC makes. Aresco is out there saying he doesn't believe the AAC deal will drop at all. I suspect both are spinning the best case scenarios for what they want and the number is somewhere in between what each of them are selling, but that's still above the MWC without factoring in what them losing teams could cost.

(09-21-2021 11:18 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 11:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:20 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  That sounds lowball to me.

IMO, Cincy/Houston/UCF are just not that much more valuable than other AAC schools. It's not like we're losing Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. They're just Houston, Cincy and UCF.

So I suspect some spinning is going on here to protect the MW.

Sorry, UCF, Houston and Cincy are three of the four best teams in the AAC. That is a huge hit. It would be for any conference. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

It depends on the gap between the teams. UCF, Houston and Cincy could be both (a) the three most valuable brands in the AAC and also (b) not much more valuable than the AAC average.

UCF, Houston and Cincy didn't necessarily have to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the AAC. They may have just had to be a head above. Or a hairline above.

I personally think they were a hairline above.

You've said that, but someone has to offset the low end schools. We all know that there are multiple low TV value schools in the conference that have to be offset by the top ones. The TV contract showed which ones were the top value schools, as that allowed them to exit the deal should any of the 3 schools leave.

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IIRC, the new TV deal allows ESPN to renegotiate if any AAC school leaves. I think at the time the deal was announced, there was reporting by SBJ that ESPN was specifically concerned that five schools - Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston or Memphis - might leave. So maybe those schools were regarded as most valuable.

But the bottom line is the clause seems to apply to all schools, whereas in the original 2012 deal, I think there was a specific designation of Group A (IIRC, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Houston and Temple) and Group B schools, where "A" were the four most valuable schools that would trigger a renegotiate clause.

So IMO, that suggests a convergence of value among AAC schools over the past 8 years, not a divergence where a few schools became heads-and-shoulders more valuable.

And IMO that comports with what happened: Houston, Cincy and UCF were not proactively elevated via "expansion" to a fully-armed Big 12. They were elevated as "backfill" to a severely wounded Big 12, a conference that had just lost half its value due to the departure of its major brand names.

IMO, nobody can seriously doubt that had Texas and OU not announced their departure, Cincy/Houston/UCF would still be in the AAC for the forseeable future with the rest of us. Again, that suggests to me the lack of a fundamental, deep and significant difference in value compared to other AAC schools.

The tv contract money isnt all of it, either. Memphis pulled in $8.5million from the AAC a couple of years back, under the old tv agreement. There's just more money to be made in the AAC.