RE: Where is realignment heading?
The correlation between a schools ability to compete and the size of their football stadium is very high and statically significant.
The 24 largest home stadiums seat between 70 and 108 K.
Michigan, PSU, Ohio State, TAMU, LSU, Bama, Texas, Georgia, UCLA, Florida, Auburn, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Clemson, Wisky, ND, SC, FSU, USC, Arkansas, Michigan State, Iowa, Mizzou, and Washington. Of these 24 Nebraska is the most underachieving, followed by FSU, UCLA, Arkansas and Mizzou. Their underachievement is not about money, but coaches they hired with the exception of Mizzou where the entire state slumped into a shitstorm after too many police killings.
If you go from 24 to 32 you get VT, Miami, BYU, Cal, Iowa State, KY, Mississippi State, and Louisville.
UVa can seat 61 but has not in two decades. Pitt could 68K but never has unless Penn State came to town.
Obviously KY and Cal don't belong in a top 32 frame but look at 33-42:
Illinois, West Va, TT, Oklahoma State, NC State, Purdue, Arizona State, Arizona, Oregon, and Indiana. (NC State has the most undersized stadium relative to demand in this group, but they like it that way).
At this point you are down to stadiums that seat only 63K. In fact the entire block from 33-42 varies from 60-53 K. Of those who seat 50K or less only Utah, Stanford, NW, TCU, Cincy, and UCF have appeared in more than one NY6 bowl (although I think I am missing one or two.)
Anyway, my main point is that there are only about 28 programs that can actually contend on a regular basis and these 28 can be identified mostly by the size of their football stadium.
No amount of TV money makes up for playing a school that sells 300,000 more football tickets than you sell. They only reason the 24-28 keep the other 30-32 around is the big boys want wins. Their fan bases will not accept 7-5 seasons as success even if the losses are to Bama, PSU, LSU, Texas, and Washington.
The group of schools that don't support a football at all cost culture, with smaller stadiums, and with serious competition with their own basketball programs for attention are the ones that I think will determine how big or small the upper division will become. Specifically these schools are mostly Pitt, Syracuse, MD, Colorado, Oregon State, Arizona, UNC, NC State, GT, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, Kansas, Stanford, NW, Duke, BC, Vandy, and UVa.
I suspect that most will attempt to play at the highest level for as long as they can put 11 kids on the field.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2021 05:21 PM by Statefan.)
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