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The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #1
The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
A lot has happened in the last five days. Rumors are swirling about the AAC and MWC. So without further ado, here are my next dominoes.

The AAC decides to take a bite out of the apple in the MW. Unable to persuade the two biggest names in the MW (SDSU and Boise State), they grab Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They also grab Rice and UAB out of C-USA to form a 14-team league.

West: AFA, CSU, UNM, Wyoming, Rice, SMU, Navy
East: Tulsa, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, Temple, USF

At this point the MW is down to 8 schools, most in the Pacific time zone. But first, Gonzaga looks around and decides to stand pat due to the defections from the MW.

The new strategy for the MW is to get into Texas, so they do. They add UTEP, NMSU, North Texas, and UTSA to get to 12.

West: SJSU, SDSU, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada
East: Boise State, USU, UTEP, NMSU, UNT, UTSA

With C-USA down to 9 members, the MAC senses it can upgrade both its football and basketball prospects at the expense of the former while gently expanding their border. The MAC invites WKU and MTSU to get to 14 schools.

South: WKU, MTSU, Ball State, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Kent State
North: Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, NIU, EMU, CMU, WMU

Army, UConn, and UMass look around and decide to stay independent.

This leaves us with 18 schools: Liberty, the 10 Sun Belt schools, and 7 remaining C-USA schools (Charlotte, FAU, FIU, ODU, Marshall, LaTech, Southern Miss).

At this point, I think the Sun Belt is in the driver's seat. It decides to add four schools to eliminate a competitor. Adding Liberty does not achieve this goal, so they remain independent. The Sun Belt adds Marshall, Southern Miss, LaTech (who holds their nose), and FAU.

West: Texas State, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, LaTech, Louisiana, Southern Miss, South Alabama
East: Marshall, FAU, CCU, App State, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, UMass, Liberty, FIU, ODU, and Charlotte.

FIU joins the A-Sun for Olympic sports. ODU and Charlotte join the CAA for Olympic sports.
09-19-2021 09:37 AM
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indianasniff Offline
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Post: #2
The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
MAC with WKU and MTSU sounds good to me. Put them both in the west and shift Toledo to the east


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09-19-2021 10:03 AM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
UTSA and UNT are likely top MW prospects... but that may change if all 4 front-range schools bolt. I think the American would do well if they could land just 2 of those (CSU and AFA).
09-19-2021 10:17 AM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
This board is one of the very few places that think Rice has any chance to go anywhere.

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09-19-2021 10:19 AM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
What if AFA said they would join the AAC only if rice got invited?

AAC

West : AFA, Col St, WSU, Tulsa, SMU, Rice
East: Tulane, Memphis, UAB, USF, ECU, temple

Still think it’s risky for CSU and AFA to join since the big 12 could still take some schools from the AAC.
09-20-2021 08:57 AM
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Troy_Fan_15 Online
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
Again I hate to burst everyone's bubble but La Tech joining the SBC won't happen. Neither want each other.
09-20-2021 09:24 AM
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virgosports Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-19-2021 09:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  A lot has happened in the last five days. Rumors are swirling about the AAC and MWC. So without further ado, here are my next dominoes.

The AAC decides to take a bite out of the apple in the MW. Unable to persuade the two biggest names in the MW (SDSU and Boise State), they grab Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They also grab Rice and UAB out of C-USA to form a 14-team league.

West: AFA, CSU, UNM, Wyoming, Rice, SMU, Navy
East: Tulsa, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, Temple, USF

At this point the MW is down to 8 schools, most in the Pacific time zone. But first, Gonzaga looks around and decides to stand pat due to the defections from the MW.

The new strategy for the MW is to get into Texas, so they do. They add UTEP, NMSU, North Texas, and UTSA to get to 12.

West: SJSU, SDSU, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada
East: Boise State, USU, UTEP, NMSU, UNT, UTSA

With C-USA down to 9 members, the MAC senses it can upgrade both its football and basketball prospects at the expense of the former while gently expanding their border. The MAC invites WKU and MTSU to get to 14 schools.

South: WKU, MTSU, Ball State, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Kent State
North: Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, NIU, EMU, CMU, WMU

Army, UConn, and UMass look around and decide to stay independent.

This leaves us with 18 schools: Liberty, the 10 Sun Belt schools, and 7 remaining C-USA schools (Charlotte, FAU, FIU, ODU, Marshall, LaTech, Southern Miss).

At this point, I think the Sun Belt is in the driver's seat. It decides to add four schools to eliminate a competitor. Adding Liberty does not achieve this goal, so they remain independent. The Sun Belt adds Marshall, Southern Miss, LaTech (who holds their nose), and FAU.

West: Texas State, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, LaTech, Louisiana, Southern Miss, South Alabama
East: Marshall, FAU, CCU, App State, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, UMass, Liberty, FIU, ODU, and Charlotte.

FIU joins the A-Sun for Olympic sports. ODU and Charlotte join the CAA for Olympic sports.

If SDSU and Boise st are a no, and CSU and AFA are a yes then I can see AAC taking unlv and UAB and call it done at 12.
09-20-2021 09:34 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 08:57 AM)bluesox Wrote:  What if AFA said they would join the AAC only if rice got invited?

AAC

West : AFA, Col St, WSU, Tulsa, SMU, Rice
East: Tulane, Memphis, UAB, USF, ECU, temple

Still think it’s risky for CSU and AFA to join since the big 12 could still take some schools from the AAC.

I think what you posted is the most likely outcome at this point

I just find it hard to believe Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy and Air Force will allow Rice to be left out.
09-20-2021 09:37 AM
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topper1296 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-19-2021 10:03 AM)indianasniff Wrote:  MAC with WKU and MTSU sounds good to me. Put them both in the west and shift Toledo to the east


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My preference is that what ever is left of CUSA and the SBC swap programs to become more regionally aligned on an east/west split, but WKU may end up in the MAC depending on how this all shakes out.
09-20-2021 09:38 AM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 09:37 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 08:57 AM)bluesox Wrote:  What if AFA said they would join the AAC only if rice got invited?

AAC

West : AFA, Col St, WSU, Tulsa, SMU, Rice
East: Tulane, Memphis, UAB, USF, ECU, temple

Still think it’s risky for CSU and AFA to join since the big 12 could still take some schools from the AAC.

I think what you posted is the most likely outcome at this point

I just find it hard to believe Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy and Air Force will allow Rice to be left out.

Though they’ve been left out this whole time.
09-20-2021 09:43 AM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
Got to think the MWC will add UTEP and UTSA to replace CSU and AFA. I guess north Texas could be in the mix, maybe also add north Texas and Texas state to get to 14 or UTA without football
09-20-2021 09:44 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 09:43 AM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 09:37 AM)solohawks Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 08:57 AM)bluesox Wrote:  What if AFA said they would join the AAC only if rice got invited?

AAC

West : AFA, Col St, WSU, Tulsa, SMU, Rice
East: Tulane, Memphis, UAB, USF, ECU, temple

Still think it’s risky for CSU and AFA to join since the big 12 could still take some schools from the AAC.

I think what you posted is the most likely outcome at this point

I just find it hard to believe Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy and Air Force will allow Rice to be left out.

Though they’ve been left out this whole time.

There wasnt room for them last time

This time there is
09-20-2021 09:51 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 09:44 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Got to think the MWC will add UTEP and UTSA to replace CSU and AFA. I guess north Texas could be in the mix, maybe also add north Texas and Texas state to get to 14 or UTA without football

UTSA and N Texas would be my bets
09-20-2021 09:52 AM
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DuelingDragon Online
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
If C-USA somehow loses its Texas wing + UAB in all this, I am not sure why anyone else would leave. The eastern schools would have the eastern core they have been saying they want, while collecting exit fees without having to pay exit fees. Moving to the Sun Belt at that point puts western trips back in play.

Marshall
ODU
Charlotte
WKU
MTSU
FAU
FIU
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss

If they want 12, there is Liberty and JMU sitting right there as strong, well-funded programs. I am sure there are a couple others that would look at this.

This would probably be absolute best case scenario for those eastern schools.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 10:08 AM by DuelingDragon.)
09-20-2021 09:59 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
I really don't think it's worth it for the AAC to go any further west than Colorado if Boise and SDSU aren't involved. Colorado schools aren't a massive geographic outlier in a division with schools in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, but it starts getting whacky any further west you go.
09-20-2021 10:09 AM
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AppManDG Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
Don't think LA Tech is in the cards for the SB, but don't be surprised if UTSA is.
09-20-2021 10:38 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 10:38 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Don't think LA Tech is in the cards for the SB, but don't be surprised if UTSA is.

I agree,

I would push for UTSA to replace non football UTA and USM to replace non football UALR since it has been mentioned in multiple places that both non football schools might be on the way out soon.

If you wanna go to 14 from that then you add Marshall and one other in the East and move Troy to the West.

You gotta be careful you don't end up like CUSA they with 2 divisions that don't want to be together.
09-20-2021 10:42 AM
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topper1296 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 09:59 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  If C-USA somehow loses its Texas wing + UAB in all this, I am not sure why anyone else would leave. The eastern schools would have the eastern core they have been saying they want, while collecting exit fees without having to pay exit fees. Moving to the Sun Belt at that point puts western trips back in play.

Marshall
ODU
Charlotte
WKU
MTSU
FAU
FIU
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss

If they want 12, there is Liberty and JMU sitting right there as strong, well-funded programs. I am sure there are a couple others that would look at this.

This would probably be absolute best case scenario for those eastern schools.

I'd be thrilled if it ended up this way, but I'm not going to hold my breathe.
09-20-2021 10:45 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 10:45 AM)topper1296 Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 09:59 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  If C-USA somehow loses its Texas wing + UAB in all this, I am not sure why anyone else would leave. The eastern schools would have the eastern core they have been saying they want, while collecting exit fees without having to pay exit fees. Moving to the Sun Belt at that point puts western trips back in play.

Marshall
ODU
Charlotte
WKU
MTSU
FAU
FIU
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss

If they want 12, there is Liberty and JMU sitting right there as strong, well-funded programs. I am sure there are a couple others that would look at this.

This would probably be absolute best case scenario for those eastern schools.

I'd be thrilled if it ended up this way, but I'm not going to hold my breathe.

AAC takes Rice and UAB
MWC takes N Texas and UTEP
Sunbelt takes UTSA and S Miss

The biggest wrench in the plan that I see is that the MWC doesnt take UTEP but instead take UTSA and N Texas

Then the Sunbelt takes USM and Marshall leaving UTEP in an eastern basis conference
09-20-2021 10:51 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (September 19 edition)
(09-20-2021 09:34 AM)virgosports Wrote:  
(09-19-2021 09:37 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  A lot has happened in the last five days. Rumors are swirling about the AAC and MWC. So without further ado, here are my next dominoes.

The AAC decides to take a bite out of the apple in the MW. Unable to persuade the two biggest names in the MW (SDSU and Boise State), they grab Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They also grab Rice and UAB out of C-USA to form a 14-team league.

West: AFA, CSU, UNM, Wyoming, Rice, SMU, Navy
East: Tulsa, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, Temple, USF

At this point the MW is down to 8 schools, most in the Pacific time zone. But first, Gonzaga looks around and decides to stand pat due to the defections from the MW.

The new strategy for the MW is to get into Texas, so they do. They add UTEP, NMSU, North Texas, and UTSA to get to 12.

West: SJSU, SDSU, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada
East: Boise State, USU, UTEP, NMSU, UNT, UTSA

With C-USA down to 9 members, the MAC senses it can upgrade both its football and basketball prospects at the expense of the former while gently expanding their border. The MAC invites WKU and MTSU to get to 14 schools.

South: WKU, MTSU, Ball State, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Kent State
North: Bowling Green, Toledo, Buffalo, NIU, EMU, CMU, WMU

Army, UConn, and UMass look around and decide to stay independent.

This leaves us with 18 schools: Liberty, the 10 Sun Belt schools, and 7 remaining C-USA schools (Charlotte, FAU, FIU, ODU, Marshall, LaTech, Southern Miss).

At this point, I think the Sun Belt is in the driver's seat. It decides to add four schools to eliminate a competitor. Adding Liberty does not achieve this goal, so they remain independent. The Sun Belt adds Marshall, Southern Miss, LaTech (who holds their nose), and FAU.

West: Texas State, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, LaTech, Louisiana, Southern Miss, South Alabama
East: Marshall, FAU, CCU, App State, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern

The remaining independents are Notre Dame, Army, UConn, UMass, Liberty, FIU, ODU, and Charlotte.

FIU joins the A-Sun for Olympic sports. ODU and Charlotte join the CAA for Olympic sports.

If SDSU and Boise st are a no, and CSU and AFA are a yes then I can see AAC taking unlv and UAB and call it done at 12.

All these dominoes...have to make sense two ways: Money (does your TV payout go up or at worst revenue neutral?) and geographical sense (airports and drivability)

UNLV fits an extra category...they have the ability to host a post season bowl games and conference championships so...they are a special case with in regards to the top 2 points.
09-20-2021 11:06 AM
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