Big Sky has 2 P5 wins :)

(09-19-2021 05:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC has three, btw - Memphis beat Mississippi State yesterday, though they were badly outplayed in the game.

I have to disagree with the extremeness of that assessment.

(09-19-2021 11:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Win% vs G5:

MWC 1.000
SEC .941
B12 .909
B1G .833
ACC .769
AAC .727
SBC .667
IND .500
PAC .429
USA .214
MAC .111
FCS .111

MWC can't be at 1.000 because Boise lost to UCF. They are 2-1 with 3 independent wins.

Good catch. On my spreadsheet, I inadvertently recorded that as an ACC loss instead of an AAC one. I'll edit that on all the relevant posts above. Thanks.

And, I am including non-P5 independents in the G5 category, so the MWC is 5-1 by that measure.

(09-19-2021 07:11 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Win% vs G5:

MWC 1.000
SEC .941
B12 .909
B1G .833
ACC .769
AAC .727
SBC .667
IND .500
PAC .429
USA .214
MAC .111
SBC .111

You have SBC twice and the .111 is wrong.

The .667 is also wrong. The SBC is 8-2 vs G5 conferences or 0.800. I'm guessing the OP is lumping independents in with the G5 which is incorrect.

(09-20-2021 07:08 AM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:11 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Win% vs G5:

MWC 1.000
SEC .941
B12 .909
B1G .833
ACC .769
AAC .727
SBC .667
IND .500
PAC .429
USA .214
MAC .111
SBC .111

You have SBC twice and the .111 is wrong.

The .667 is also wrong. The SBC is 8-2 vs G5 conferences or 0.800. I'm guessing the OP is lumping independents in with the G5 which is incorrect.

Depends which ones. ND is the only independent that should be in the P5 bucket. All other independents should be in the G5 bucket.

Except for UConn. They can go in the FCS bucket.

At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

(09-20-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

I dunno. I mean MWC maybe best team Boise lost to about the 4th/5th best team from the AAC in UCF. That's got to count for something.

4 of the 5 P5 teams MWC has beaten have 0 FBS wins this year. The only one that has any FBS wins this year is UCLA. Arizona, Washington St are not good football teams- some of the worst FBS teams in the country.

(09-20-2021 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

I dunno. I mean MWC maybe best team Boise lost to about the 4th/5th best team from the AAC in UCF. That's got to count for something.

4 of the 5 P5 teams MWC has beaten have 0 FBS wins this year. The only one that has any FBS wins this year is UCLA. Arizona, Washington St are not good football teams- some of the worst FBS teams in the country.

In short, counting PAC wins as P5 wins is fools gold.

(09-20-2021 07:20 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:08 AM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:11 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Win% vs G5:

MWC 1.000
SEC .941
B12 .909
B1G .833
ACC .769
AAC .727
SBC .667
IND .500
PAC .429
USA .214
MAC .111
SBC .111

You have SBC twice and the .111 is wrong.

The .667 is also wrong. The SBC is 8-2 vs G5 conferences or 0.800. I'm guessing the OP is lumping independents in with the G5 which is incorrect.

Depends which ones. ND is the only independent that should be in the P5 bucket. All other independents should be in the G5 bucket.

Except for UConn. They can go in the FCS bucket.

That bucket is turning into a small bucket... less and less independent schools.

(09-20-2021 07:20 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 07:08 AM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:11 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Win% vs G5:

MWC 1.000
SEC .941
B12 .909
B1G .833
ACC .769
AAC .727
SBC .667
IND .500
PAC .429
USA .214
MAC .111
SBC .111

You have SBC twice and the .111 is wrong.

The .667 is also wrong. The SBC is 8-2 vs G5 conferences or 0.800. I'm guessing the OP is lumping independents in with the G5 which is incorrect.

Depends which ones. ND is the only independent that should be in the P5 bucket. All other independents should be in the G5 bucket.

Except for UConn. They can go in the FCS bucket.

I used "G5" to mean "not P5" in my analysis. So, Notre Dame counts as P5, and the other independents (BYU, Army, UConn, UMass, Liberty and NMSU) are lumped together with the G5 conferences for this purpose. Where Win% data is shown for independents as a group, ND is included since they aren't part of any other conference. If anyone would prefer to analyze this in a different way, feel free to do so.

(09-20-2021 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

I dunno. I mean MWC maybe best team Boise lost to about the 4th/5th best team from the AAC in UCF. That's got to count for something.

4 of the 5 P5 teams MWC has beaten have 0 FBS wins this year. The only one that has any FBS wins this year is UCLA. Arizona, Washington St are not good football teams- some of the worst FBS teams in the country.

Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

The numbers don't lie: The MWC is "better" (at least on paper) than the AAC at this early stage. But things can change quickly.

(09-19-2021 01:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Pac 12 is ahead of only the CUSA and MAC in ooc win %.

Even if they win all their remaining ooc games, they will still be below .500 (at least before the bowls). And their last 4 include 2 against ND and 2 against BYU. The only other time that happened going back to 1994 was last year and that was on only 3 games.

Its a historically bad year for them.

The Sun Belt, is clearly ahead of CUSA and MAC this year. MAC only has 2 schools with only 1 loss and nobody unbeaten. CUSA still has 1 unbeaten and 6 with 1 loss. Sun Belt has 2 unbeaten and 4 with 2 loss.

MWC still has 3 unbeaten and 5 with 1 loss. AAC 3 unbeaten and 2 with 1 loss. Those 8 unbeatens and 19 once beatens are the schools still alive for the G5 NY6 slot (barring all the conferences having 2 loss champs).

Sagarin's don't show it that way. The MAC West is still above both divisions of CUSA and Sun Belt. Even the MAC East is ahead of one of the CUSA and Sunbelt divisions. I think there were losses to FCS schools that aren't on these lists. That could change quickly, and I don't think the MAC is good this year.

(09-20-2021 12:26 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 01:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Pac 12 is ahead of only the CUSA and MAC in ooc win %.

Even if they win all their remaining ooc games, they will still be below .500 (at least before the bowls). And their last 4 include 2 against ND and 2 against BYU. The only other time that happened going back to 1994 was last year and that was on only 3 games.

Its a historically bad year for them.

The Sun Belt, is clearly ahead of CUSA and MAC this year. MAC only has 2 schools with only 1 loss and nobody unbeaten. CUSA still has 1 unbeaten and 6 with 1 loss. Sun Belt has 2 unbeaten and 4 with 2 loss.

MWC still has 3 unbeaten and 5 with 1 loss. AAC 3 unbeaten and 2 with 1 loss. Those 8 unbeatens and 19 once beatens are the schools still alive for the G5 NY6 slot (barring all the conferences having 2 loss champs).

Sagarin's don't show it that way. The MAC West is still above both divisions of CUSA and Sun Belt. Even the MAC East is ahead of one of the CUSA and Sunbelt divisions. I think there were losses to FCS schools that aren't on these lists. That could change quickly, and I don't think the MAC is good this year.

Sagarin still heavily weights last year at this point. And given the pandemic, he might even be putting 2019 data in there.

(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

I dunno. I mean MWC maybe best team Boise lost to about the 4th/5th best team from the AAC in UCF. That's got to count for something.

4 of the 5 P5 teams MWC has beaten have 0 FBS wins this year. The only one that has any FBS wins this year is UCLA. Arizona, Washington St are not good football teams- some of the worst FBS teams in the country.

Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

The wins maybe should have lost, but they did win. Could have should have.

The problem is that the MWC teams that they've beaten are largely not good teams at all. Arizona might go 0-12. Washington St and Cal aren't good. They lost a game to Vanderbilt. The games that the AAC have won are going to age well. La Tech, Marshall, Boise St.

And yeah, 3 of those MWC G5 wins are 2 vs Uconn(the worst team maybe ever in FBS) and New Mexico St. Programs that will be sub 150 in Sagarin this year. Those wins aren't going to age well.

(09-20-2021 01:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 08:24 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  At this point, the MWC conference looks better than the AAC — and perhaps clearly better.

I dunno. I mean MWC maybe best team Boise lost to about the 4th/5th best team from the AAC in UCF. That's got to count for something.

4 of the 5 P5 teams MWC has beaten have 0 FBS wins this year. The only one that has any FBS wins this year is UCLA. Arizona, Washington St are not good football teams- some of the worst FBS teams in the country.

Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

The wins maybe should have lost, but they did win. Could have should have.

The problem is that the MWC teams that they've beaten are largely not good teams at all. Arizona might go 0-12. Washington St and Cal aren't good. They lost a game to Vanderbilt. The games that the AAC have won are going to age well. La Tech, Marshall, Boise St.

And yeah, 3 of those MWC G5 wins are 2 vs Uconn(the worst team maybe ever in FBS) and New Mexico St. Programs that will be sub 150 in Sagarin this year. Those wins aren't going to age well.

I suspect you are correct about the "aging well" - and just looking at the wins you mentioned (La Tech, Marshall, Boise) drives home the 'luck' factor in that, as the AAC teams should have lost all three of those games.

But if so, then the computers will sort that out and the AAC will be ranked higher. As of now, we're just kind of left with the bare wins and losses, imo.

(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

Sounds like some box score and highlight only analysis with the Memphis games quo. Our pass D has definitely been poor so far. Despite time of possession MSU only had more passing yards, we had more rushing yards. We also had more forced fumbles so we weren't out-everythinged. MSU also got favorable calls. Before that punt return we were already leading 21-17.

With ASU we led the whole game despite the poor pass D.

The MAC has just 3 FBS wins: NIU over GA Tech, WMU over Pitt, EMU over UMASS. Not getting it done unfortunately in a few G5 games they should've/could've won, but the 2 P5 wins are nice.

Also, I agree it seems the MW is doing better than the AAC this year. I think that'll be the case even more once the new Big 12 members leave. The AAC will be the new CUSA.

(09-20-2021 12:26 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 01:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Pac 12 is ahead of only the CUSA and MAC in ooc win %.

Even if they win all their remaining ooc games, they will still be below .500 (at least before the bowls). And their last 4 include 2 against ND and 2 against BYU. The only other time that happened going back to 1994 was last year and that was on only 3 games.

Its a historically bad year for them.

The Sun Belt, is clearly ahead of CUSA and MAC this year. MAC only has 2 schools with only 1 loss and nobody unbeaten. CUSA still has 1 unbeaten and 6 with 1 loss. Sun Belt has 2 unbeaten and 4 with 2 loss.

MWC still has 3 unbeaten and 5 with 1 loss. AAC 3 unbeaten and 2 with 1 loss. Those 8 unbeatens and 19 once beatens are the schools still alive for the G5 NY6 slot (barring all the conferences having 2 loss champs).

Sagarin's don't show it that way. The MAC West is still above both divisions of CUSA and Sun Belt. Even the MAC East is ahead of one of the CUSA and Sunbelt divisions. I think there were losses to FCS schools that aren't on these lists. That could change quickly, and I don't think the MAC is good this year.

Interesting.

(09-20-2021 05:53 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

Sounds like some box score and highlight only analysis with the Memphis games quo. Our pass D has definitely been poor so far. Despite time of possession MSU only had more passing yards, we had more rushing yards. We also had more forced fumbles so we weren't out-everythinged. MSU also got favorable calls. Before that punt return we were already leading 21-17.

With ASU we led the whole game despite the poor pass D.

My analysis of Arkansas State is based on the box score alone. But IMO if you give up 50 points and 680 yards, it's kind of hard for that box score to be misleading.

I watched most of the Mississippi State game. Memphis scored 14 of their 31 points on a scoop and score and a punt return. Those are always lucky plays, because you can't duplicate them. Memphis might go the next 5 games without either, and not for lack of trying. Mississippi State also bungled the snap on a 4th and goal play when up 17-7, that turned the game around for Memphis.

Look, i get it, bottom line Memphis won the game, great. But IMO it is fair to say that it was a very fortunate win. When you get outgained 2 to 1, out first-downed 2 to 1 and the other team has the ball for 40 minutes, well, IMO you were lucky to win.

(09-20-2021 06:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 05:53 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

Sounds like some box score and highlight only analysis with the Memphis games quo. Our pass D has definitely been poor so far. Despite time of possession MSU only had more passing yards, we had more rushing yards. We also had more forced fumbles so we weren't out-everythinged. MSU also got favorable calls. Before that punt return we were already leading 21-17.

With ASU we led the whole game despite the poor pass D.

My analysis of Arkansas State is based on the box score alone. But IMO if you give up 50 points and 680 yards, it's kind of hard for that box score to be misleading.

I watched most of the Mississippi State game. Memphis scored 14 of their 31 points on a scoop and score and a punt return. Those are always lucky plays, because you can't duplicate them. Memphis might go the next 5 games without either, and not for lack of trying. Mississippi State also bungled the snap on a 4th and goal play when up 17-7, that turned the game around for Memphis.

Look, i get it, bottom line Memphis won the game, great. But IMO it is fair to say that it was a very fortunate win. When you get outgained 2 to 1, out first-downed 2 to 1 and the other team has the ball for 40 minutes, well, IMO you were lucky to win.

Quo, I'll be the first to admit Memphis got lucky. But the Tigers made big plays and MissState failed to do so.

As to the refs botching the punt return for a score (which they did, I realize) ... that was partly the MissState player's faults for not making it clear to the officials that he had his hand on the ball so as to kill the play. Punt team rule: take a knee and put the hand on the ball for two to three seconds. Show the officials. Simple, fundamental special teams play. MSU failed to do that.

In addition, Memphis played strong D to thwart the two MSU two-point conversion plays. And the Tiger kicker nailed a pressure-packed 51-yarder. Big plays. Clutch plays. Timely plays. Yes, MSU was dominant in total yards and time of possession. And yes, Memphis got lucky in many respects. But, jeesh, can you not give a bit of credit to the Tigers. You know I respect your contributions to this board and agree with you 95 percent of the time. But sometimes you come across as more anti-Memphis as I come across as pretentious and effete.