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Conference OOC Win% vs FBS after Week 3
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Alanda Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Conference OOC Win% vs FBS after Week 3
(09-20-2021 06:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 05:53 PM)Alanda Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

Sounds like some box score and highlight only analysis with the Memphis games quo. Our pass D has definitely been poor so far. Despite time of possession MSU only had more passing yards, we had more rushing yards. We also had more forced fumbles so we weren't out-everythinged. MSU also got favorable calls. Before that punt return we were already leading 21-17.

With ASU we led the whole game despite the poor pass D.

My analysis of Arkansas State is based on the box score alone. But IMO if you give up 50 points and 680 yards, it's kind of hard for that box score to be misleading.

I watched most of the Mississippi State game. Memphis scored 14 of their 31 points on a scoop and score and a punt return. Those are always lucky plays, because you can't duplicate them. Memphis might go the next 5 games without either, and not for lack of trying. Mississippi State also bungled the snap on a 4th and goal play when up 17-7, that turned the game around for Memphis.

Look, i get it, bottom line Memphis won the game, great. But IMO it is fair to say that it was a very fortunate win. When you get outgained 2 to 1, out first-downed 2 to 1 and the other team has the ball for 40 minutes, well, IMO you were lucky to win.

I can agree with a "very fortunate win" more than "badly outplayed". That's what I was arguing against. To me saying badly outplayed made it sound like MSU played a flawless game and we could do nothing in response. The fumble return for a TD greatly affected the time of possession as MSU was doing a lot of dink and dunk passing. 11:40 of their 37:30 Poss. came from their first two drives of the game. They got 22 plays in the 1st qtr before Memphis got one.
09-20-2021 07:02 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Conference OOC Win% vs FBS after Week 3
(09-20-2021 06:38 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 06:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 05:53 PM)Alanda Wrote:  
(09-20-2021 12:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Once the data connections are made in about a month or so, we can let the computers sort it out.

But as of now, the AAC is 2-11 vs P5 while the MW is 5-10. Against G5 (including non-ND independents) the MW is 8-1, the AAC is 8-3.

As for win "shakiness", I think the AAC probably has more shaky, shoulda-lost wins. Boise led UCF by 21 points and yet UCF won. ECU was down by 18 in the 4Q vs Marshall but somehow won. Memphis was outgained and out-everythinged by Mississippi State, and yet got some favorable calls to win. Memphis also gave up like a billion yards and points to Arkansas State and yet won. SMU literally beat La-Tech on a Hail Mary play. I'm sure the MW has had some close games too, but those are three downright Miracles and one very lucky win. The AAC record so far is not good, and yet it easily could be a whole lot worse.

The MW does have one more FCS loss than the AAC (two to one), but overall, the MW has to be in front right now, IMO.

Sounds like some box score and highlight only analysis with the Memphis games quo. Our pass D has definitely been poor so far. Despite time of possession MSU only had more passing yards, we had more rushing yards. We also had more forced fumbles so we weren't out-everythinged. MSU also got favorable calls. Before that punt return we were already leading 21-17.

With ASU we led the whole game despite the poor pass D.

My analysis of Arkansas State is based on the box score alone. But IMO if you give up 50 points and 680 yards, it's kind of hard for that box score to be misleading.

I watched most of the Mississippi State game. Memphis scored 14 of their 31 points on a scoop and score and a punt return. Those are always lucky plays, because you can't duplicate them. Memphis might go the next 5 games without either, and not for lack of trying. Mississippi State also bungled the snap on a 4th and goal play when up 17-7, that turned the game around for Memphis.

Look, i get it, bottom line Memphis won the game, great. But IMO it is fair to say that it was a very fortunate win. When you get outgained 2 to 1, out first-downed 2 to 1 and the other team has the ball for 40 minutes, well, IMO you were lucky to win.

Quo, I'll be the first to admit Memphis got lucky.
But the Tigers made big plays and MissState failed to do so.

As to the refs botching the punt return for a score (which they did, I realize) ... that was partly the MissState player's faults for not making it clear to the officials that he had his hand on the ball so as to kill the play. Punt team rule: take a knee and put the hand on the ball for two to three seconds. Show the officials. Simple, fundamental special teams play. MSU failed to do that.

In addition, Memphis played strong D to thwart the two MSU two-point conversion plays. And the Tiger kicker nailed a pressure-packed 51-yarder. Big plays. Clutch plays. Timely plays. Yes, MSU was dominant in total yards and time of possession. And yes, Memphis got lucky in many respects. But, jeesh, can you not give a bit of credit to the Tigers. You know I respect your contributions to this board and agree with you 95 percent of the time. But sometimes you come across as more anti-Memphis as I come across as pretentious and effete.

Bill, the bold part is all I needed to read, LOL, though I did read the rest of your post.

That's because that's all I was saying. The issue being addressed wasn't the validity of Memphis's win. Memphis won the game, I acknowledge that (not that anyone at Memphis cares, LOL).

It's just that "shaky" wins, meaning lucky wins, were being discussed, and IMO Memphis got a lucky win over Mississippi State. And so I mentioned that, along with several other lucky (IMO) recent wins by AAC teams.
(This post was last modified: 09-21-2021 11:19 AM by quo vadis.)
09-21-2021 11:18 AM
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OscarWildeCat Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Conference OOC Win% vs FBS after Week 3
(09-19-2021 04:59 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(09-19-2021 04:40 AM)ken d Wrote:  .815 SEC
.778 B12
.720 B1G
.565 IND
.542 ACC
.542 MWC
.450 SBC
.417 AAC
.391 PAC
.208 USA
.120 MAC
.103 FCS

Thanks for posting that.

On a related note the MWC already has five P5 wins, by four different members, and would have six if not for the officials robbing BSU of a TD near the end of today's one-point loss to Oklahoma State.

By comparison the AAC has two, and one of those was by Cincinnati who is exiting the conference.

So the same number of P5 wins as the FCS Big Sky Conference.
09-21-2021 11:53 AM
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