(09-18-2021 05:58 PM)BigEastMike Wrote: [quote='chargeradio' pid='17650937' dateline='1631999395']
There's really no need in this round. C-USA is bloated at 14. The MAC has FBS football-only options of it winds up at 9 or 11 members.
Why divide the pie more than you have to?
Because, to put it facetiously, pie is tasty, and the more the merrier.
Seriously though, if anyone is arguing that the current FBS schools should be stingy and try to keep it all for themselves, they're going to get a few jeers from the peanut gallery.
More importantly, the networks have made it clear that they've got the cash and they're willing to dish it around so they can serve up a wider and wider palette of programming for their viewers. Moreover, if we value higher education, as most of us do, why shouldn't more of the nation's universities benefit from it?
Besides, D1A/FBS has been adding schools at a steady pace, since the late 1980s. It is an ongoing process. Most people are only talking about adding another batch of 5 or 6 schools. The changes will hardly be noticeable, and the networks have made it clear that they will adjust the revenues accordingly.
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If that doesn't convince you, consider this:
If the Big 12 epansion has taught us anything, it is that
there is going to be a need for more FBS schools, from the vantage point of the G5 conferences. Conferences generate more revenue based on their viewership. Conference growth has clearly been good for the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL and for the P5 conferences. It can also be good for the G5 conferences.
Every FB or BB game is considered a product by the broadcasters. The more product they can offer, and the wider the variety to appeal to the widest possible audience, th better.
That's why the Big 12 is planning to expand to 16, and is already talking about a future expansion to 20.
It's also why the AAC is planning to replace all four of the departing schools, rather than to stay put at 10 schools. If they stay put at 10, the AAC/ESPN+ package is going to generate substantially less viewership than if there are 12 AAC FB/BB teams. More product, more variety = more viewership.
The MWC has learned how to make it work for them, as reflected in their current broadcasting deal, and it's only a matter of time before the MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt do, as well.
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This is what's likely to happen:
When the Big 12 expands to 16 teams/sport, like the SEC, there will be 73 P5 schools (up from 65 currently).
There will only be 57 G5 schools (down from the current 65) left for the five G5 conferences (11.4 teams per conference, assuming that all of the independents would join G5 conferences) when the Big 12 expansion is complete.. The problem is that most conferences want to have 12 members, and there simply won't be enough to go around when the Big 12 adds 8 G5 schools, which they might could do within the next 5-6 years.
New Total: 57 G5 schools
The AAC plans to add 4 teams by 2024 (e.g., 2 from the MWC and 2 from CUSA or the SBC), to maintain a membership of 12.
57-12=45 non-AAC G5 schools left to split among the 4 other G5 conferences.
The MWC may lose at least 2 members (CSU & AF) to the AAC, and will probably try to replace them.
45=12=33 non-AAC, non-MWC G5 schools left to split by the MAC, CUSA, & SBC.
The CUSA has 14 schools. If it wishes to maintain that number of members:
33-14=19 non AAC, non MWC, non CUSA G5 schools for the MAC & SBC.
The MAC has 12 schools. If it wishes to maintain that number:
19-12=7 G5/indy non AAC, non MWC, non CUSA, non MAC schools.
What will be left at that point? Just seven FBS schools.
Let's check these computations:
12 (AAC) + 12 (MWC) + 14 (CUSA) + 12 (MAC)=50 schools; remainder=7.
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So if you're a Sun Belt Conference fan, you look at these numbers and you realize that the SBC probably can't survive unless some CUSA teams join the Sun Belt, or unless some more FCS schools make the transition to FBS before the Big 12 doubles in size to 16.
Hypothetic example:
Suppose that the 6 remaining schools (56-50, above) represent the core of Sun Belt schools that would remain after they are raided by other conferences.
As soon as the Sun Belt sees this coming down the road, they go into action. They can't add any independents, because all the independents will have already been distributed to the MWC, MAC, CUSA, and AAC by that point.
Their only option, if they want to remain in existence, would be to add at least 4 and more probably 6 FCS-to-FBS schools, and to do so expeditiously.
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Q: Why would the Sun Belt bear the brunt of this?
A: They may not, but they seem most likely to, because they are the smallest G5 conference. Losing two schools would push the SBC to the brink. Losing three and not being able to replace them would put them out of business.
The conferences with 12 full members could lose 4 members and muddle on for a few years, if needed, but the MWC and AAC only have 11 full members, and the SBC only has 10. In these times of massive realignment, 12 is a good minimum to shoot for.
Moreover, the Sun Belt has brought more schools up from FCS than any other conference. They've proven that they are able to add new FBS schools very successfully, as attested to by App. State and Coastal Carolina's recent successes.
Schools that made FCS-to-FBS transition since 2000: Total: 15 FCS-to-FBS schools
Independents:
UMass 2013 MAC
Liberty 2018 indy
UConn 2000 Big East
CUSA (5 recent FCS to FBS members): First season: 1996 (6 members)
FAU 2004
FIU 2005
WKU 2008
ODU 2014
Charlotte 2015
The CUSA had the foresight to add 5 FCS to FBS members, and this has made them the least vulnerable G5 conference.
SBC (7 current FCS to FBS members): First season: 2010 (7 members)
Coastal Carolina 2017
Texas State 2012
GA State 2013
GA Southern 2014
App St. 2014
S. Alabama 2013
UTSA 2012
The Sun Belt, quite simply, has had to add new FCS to FBS schools from its beginnings. Thus far, it has been the way they do business, and this may continue for a little while longer
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Here are some of the schools that mad the transition to FBS before 2000:
Akron 1986 (MAC)
UAB 1987 (CUSA)
La. Tech 1989 (CUSA)
Nevada 1991 (MAC)
Ark. St. 1992
Louisiana-Monroe 1994 (CUSA)
N. Texas 1994 (CUSA)
UCF 1996 (AAC)
Boise St. 1996 (MWC)
Buffalo 1999 (MAC)
MTSU 1999 (CUSA)
This has simply become the natural order of things. Schools make the FCS-to-FBS transition to restock the 10 FBS conferences.
On average, roughly 1 FCS school has made the transition to FBS, per year, since the late 1980s.
Only two schools (Liberty & Coastal) have made the transition in the past 6 years, and so it's not surprising that people are talking about adding a new batch of FCS to FBS schools.
