(09-19-2021 08:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:16 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Maybe I am not explaining my line of thought well. If the 8 teams left cannot get any MWC schools or Army, then I believe our tv deal will drop pretty hard. As much as 40%.
If that happens, I can see Tulsa and SMU seeing if their addition to the MWC would increase their tv deal that’s coming up for negotiation. I also wouldn’t doubt that Memphis and Tulane would also look to the MWC.

With a new tv deal coming, espn may secure that contract. Who knows who it will be with.
If the AAC has to get four teams from the Sunbelt or CUSA, I believe our contract will drop.
At that point, ya I think Tulsa, SMU, Tulane and Memphis would look into a move.

This is my nightmare scenario. It would leave the AAC with Temple, Navy, ECU and USF. I doubt Navy stays.

As I see it, your imagination is running away with you, just a wee bit. Your nightmare scenario is not going to play out - - not even close.

There are a flot of uncertainties, but I am pretty darn sure that ESPN is going to provide the revenue to permit the AAC to add four quality schools, and any cut in AAC's revenue stream won't be by a large amount.

Right now, we're looking at 3 probable scenarios:

1) Four MWC schools, including CSU & AF join the AAC

2) Two MWC schools (CSU & AF) and 2 quality eastern schools join the AAC

3) Four quality eastern schools join the AAC.

Anyone who considers option 3 the worst case scenario should pause for a moment and note that there are at least 7 quality eastern schools with strong viewership, such as Louisiana, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina. All of those schools would earn millions more in the AAC - every year - than they're earning in the CUSA and SBC. Chances are pretty good that the AAC will get the pick of the litter.

I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

(09-19-2021 08:50 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:16 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Maybe I am not explaining my line of thought well. If the 8 teams left cannot get any MWC schools or Army, then I believe our tv deal will drop pretty hard. As much as 40%.
If that happens, I can see Tulsa and SMU seeing if their addition to the MWC would increase their tv deal that’s coming up for negotiation. I also wouldn’t doubt that Memphis and Tulane would also look to the MWC.

With a new tv deal coming, espn may secure that contract. Who knows who it will be with.
If the AAC has to get four teams from the Sunbelt or CUSA, I believe our contract will drop.
At that point, ya I think Tulsa, SMU, Tulane and Memphis would look into a move.

This is my nightmare scenario. It would leave the AAC with Temple, Navy, ECU and USF. I doubt Navy stays.

As I see it, your imagination is running away with you, just a wee bit. Your nightmare scenario is not going to play out - - not even close.

There are a flot of uncertainties, but I am pretty darn sure that ESPN is going to provide the revenue to permit the AAC to add four quality schools, and any cut in AAC's revenue stream won't be by a large amount.

Right now, we're looking at 3 probable scenarios:

1) Four MWC schools, including CSU & AF join the AAC

2) Two MWC schools (CSU & AF) and 2 quality eastern schools join the AAC

3) Four quality eastern schools join the AAC.

Anyone who considers option 3 the worst case scenario should pause for a moment and note that there are at least 7 quality eastern schools with strong viewership, such as Louisiana, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina. All of those schools would earn millions more in the AAC - every year - than they're earning in the CUSA and SBC. Chances are pretty good that the AAC will get the pick of the litter.

I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Bump.

This was always pie in the sky. The problem now is, Aresco went from being on the offense, to being on the defense.

He could have easily grabbed schools from Texas to the East and claimed victory. Instead he went big, and burned. Kuddos to him for trying.....I guess.

(09-19-2021 08:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:50 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:16 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Maybe I am not explaining my line of thought well. If the 8 teams left cannot get any MWC schools or Army, then I believe our tv deal will drop pretty hard. As much as 40%.
If that happens, I can see Tulsa and SMU seeing if their addition to the MWC would increase their tv deal that’s coming up for negotiation. I also wouldn’t doubt that Memphis and Tulane would also look to the MWC.

With a new tv deal coming, espn may secure that contract. Who knows who it will be with.
If the AAC has to get four teams from the Sunbelt or CUSA, I believe our contract will drop.
At that point, ya I think Tulsa, SMU, Tulane and Memphis would look into a move.

This is my nightmare scenario. It would leave the AAC with Temple, Navy, ECU and USF. I doubt Navy stays.

As I see it, your imagination is running away with you, just a wee bit. Your nightmare scenario is not going to play out - - not even close.

There are a flot of uncertainties, but I am pretty darn sure that ESPN is going to provide the revenue to permit the AAC to add four quality schools, and any cut in AAC's revenue stream won't be by a large amount.

Right now, we're looking at 3 probable scenarios:

1) Four MWC schools, including CSU & AF join the AAC

2) Two MWC schools (CSU & AF) and 2 quality eastern schools join the AAC

3) Four quality eastern schools join the AAC.

Anyone who considers option 3 the worst case scenario should pause for a moment and note that there are at least 7 quality eastern schools with strong viewership, such as Louisiana, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina. All of those schools would earn millions more in the AAC - every year - than they're earning in the CUSA and SBC. Chances are pretty good that the AAC will get the pick of the litter.

I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Seriously, JUST the 8 teams remaining after UC, UH, and UCF leave are better than the G4s.
Give me a minute...

(10-01-2021 10:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:50 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 07:16 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Maybe I am not explaining my line of thought well. If the 8 teams left cannot get any MWC schools or Army, then I believe our tv deal will drop pretty hard. As much as 40%.
If that happens, I can see Tulsa and SMU seeing if their addition to the MWC would increase their tv deal that’s coming up for negotiation. I also wouldn’t doubt that Memphis and Tulane would also look to the MWC.

With a new tv deal coming, espn may secure that contract. Who knows who it will be with.
If the AAC has to get four teams from the Sunbelt or CUSA, I believe our contract will drop.
At that point, ya I think Tulsa, SMU, Tulane and Memphis would look into a move.

This is my nightmare scenario. It would leave the AAC with Temple, Navy, ECU and USF. I doubt Navy stays.

As I see it, your imagination is running away with you, just a wee bit. Your nightmare scenario is not going to play out - - not even close.

There are a flot of uncertainties, but I am pretty darn sure that ESPN is going to provide the revenue to permit the AAC to add four quality schools, and any cut in AAC's revenue stream won't be by a large amount.

Right now, we're looking at 3 probable scenarios:

1) Four MWC schools, including CSU & AF join the AAC

2) Two MWC schools (CSU & AF) and 2 quality eastern schools join the AAC

3) Four quality eastern schools join the AAC.

Anyone who considers option 3 the worst case scenario should pause for a moment and note that there are at least 7 quality eastern schools with strong viewership, such as Louisiana, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina. All of those schools would earn millions more in the AAC - every year - than they're earning in the CUSA and SBC. Chances are pretty good that the AAC will get the pick of the litter.

I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Seriously, JUST the 8 teams remaining after UC, UH, and UCF leave are better than the G4s.
Give me a minute...

Quick explanation of methodology up front. As noted in a separate thread on AAC football viewership, team by team, I broke down the last four years by team. The framework I was fitting in to used home games only for conference inventory, which resulted in UC, UH, and UCF being about 40% of AAC conference iinventory viewers. That approach is obviously imperfect, so I did another run crediting all teams with any conference inventory games in which they were involved. This brought CCGs back in to the calclulations, and nearly doubled the viewers counted, but percentage wise, the three leavers combined were within a couple percentage points of the home game only percentage, still just over 40% of AAC conference inventory.

So the below numbers for new AAC remove the home games of the three leavers from conference inventory viewers (yes imperfect, but proportionally on target for other methods of reducing viewers). Then compared to the conference inventory viewers of the G4 conferences.




CONFERENCE INVENTORY VIEWERSHIP:
2018-2020 Average Conf. Inv. Vwrs:
18-20 Old AAC 26,185,000
18-20 New AAC 16,343,000
18-20 ........mwc 6,877,000
18-20 .......CUSA 945,000
18-20 .........SBC 4,583,000
18-20 ........MAC 3,493,000


2020 Old AAC 21,294,000
2020 New AAC 14,256,000
2020 mwc 6,149,000
2020 CUSA 2,668,000
2020 SBC 10,224,000
2020 MAC 4,780,000

2019 Old AAC 28,612,000
2019 New AAC 17,595,000
2019 mwc 8,677,000
2019 CUSA 167,000
2019 SBC 2,282,000
2020 MAC 2,532,000

2018 Old AAC 28,648,000
2018 New AAC 17,179,000
2018 mwc 5,806,000
2018 CUSA 0
2018 SBC 1,244,000
2018 MAC 3,005,000


2017 I have the AAC and the mwc, but not the others:
2017 Old AAC 21,894,000
2017 New AAC 14,451,000
2017 mwc 7,688,000

(10-01-2021 11:53 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 10:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:50 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:38 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  As I see it, your imagination is running away with you, just a wee bit. Your nightmare scenario is not going to play out - - not even close.

There are a flot of uncertainties, but I am pretty darn sure that ESPN is going to provide the revenue to permit the AAC to add four quality schools, and any cut in AAC's revenue stream won't be by a large amount.

Right now, we're looking at 3 probable scenarios:

1) Four MWC schools, including CSU & AF join the AAC

2) Two MWC schools (CSU & AF) and 2 quality eastern schools join the AAC

3) Four quality eastern schools join the AAC.

Anyone who considers option 3 the worst case scenario should pause for a moment and note that there are at least 7 quality eastern schools with strong viewership, such as Louisiana, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Buffalo, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina. All of those schools would earn millions more in the AAC - every year - than they're earning in the CUSA and SBC. Chances are pretty good that the AAC will get the pick of the litter.

I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Seriously, JUST the 8 teams remaining after UC, UH, and UCF leave are better than the G4s.
Give me a minute...

Quick explanation of methodology up front. As noted in a separate thread on AAC football viewership, team by team, I broke down the last four years by team. The framework I was fitting in to used home games only for conference inventory, which resulted in UC, UH, and UCF being about 40% of AAC conference iinventory viewers. That approach is obviously imperfect, so I did another run crediting all teams with any conference inventory games in which they were involved. This brought CCGs back in to the calclulations, and nearly doubled the viewers counted, but percentage wise, the three leavers combined were within a couple percentage points of the home game only percentage, still just over 40% of AAC conference inventory.

So the below numbers for new AAC remove the home games of the three leavers from conference inventory viewers (yes imperfect, but proportionally on target for other methods of reducing viewers). Then compared to the conference inventory viewers of the G4 conferences.




CONFERENCE INVENTORY VIEWERSHIP:
2018-2020 Average Conf. Inv. Vwrs:
18-20 Old AAC 26,185,000
18-20 New AAC 16,343,000
18-20 ........mwc 6,877,000
18-20 .......CUSA 945,000
18-20 .........SBC 4,583,000
18-20 ........MAC 3,493,000


2020 Old AAC 21,294,000
2020 New AAC 14,256,000
2020 mwc 6,149,000
2020 CUSA 2,668,000
2020 SBC 10,224,000
2020 MAC 4,780,000

2019 Old AAC 28,612,000
2019 New AAC 17,595,000
2019 mwc 8,677,000
2019 CUSA 167,000
2019 SBC 2,282,000
2020 MAC 2,532,000

2018 Old AAC 28,648,000
2018 New AAC 17,179,000
2018 mwc 5,806,000
2018 CUSA 0
2018 SBC 1,244,000
2018 MAC 3,005,000


2017 I have the AAC and the mwc, but not the others:
2017 Old AAC 21,894,000
2017 New AAC 14,451,000
2017 mwc 7,688,000

SLH

Navy will likely be Indy again in the next few months. I would not worry about it. You guys will be just fine.

-FH

Note.......sorry buddy.

(10-01-2021 12:03 PM)fanhoodtheocho Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 11:53 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 10:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:50 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  I need to find out how the average AAC program’s veiwership matches up against the other non-autonomous conference averages.

There is a good chance that the AAC could add App, LA, Marshall and UAB and be the 6th best conference most years. I’m not sure but this is my hunch.

Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Seriously, JUST the 8 teams remaining after UC, UH, and UCF leave are better than the G4s.
Give me a minute...

Quick explanation of methodology up front. As noted in a separate thread on AAC football viewership, team by team, I broke down the last four years by team. The framework I was fitting in to used home games only for conference inventory, which resulted in UC, UH, and UCF being about 40% of AAC conference iinventory viewers. That approach is obviously imperfect, so I did another run crediting all teams with any conference inventory games in which they were involved. This brought CCGs back in to the calclulations, and nearly doubled the viewers counted, but percentage wise, the three leavers combined were within a couple percentage points of the home game only percentage, still just over 40% of AAC conference inventory.

So the below numbers for new AAC remove the home games of the three leavers from conference inventory viewers (yes imperfect, but proportionally on target for other methods of reducing viewers). Then compared to the conference inventory viewers of the G4 conferences.




CONFERENCE INVENTORY VIEWERSHIP:
2018-2020 Average Conf. Inv. Vwrs:
18-20 Old AAC 26,185,000
18-20 New AAC 16,343,000
18-20 ........mwc 6,877,000
18-20 .......CUSA 945,000
18-20 .........SBC 4,583,000
18-20 ........MAC 3,493,000


2020 Old AAC 21,294,000
2020 New AAC 14,256,000
2020 mwc 6,149,000
2020 CUSA 2,668,000
2020 SBC 10,224,000
2020 MAC 4,780,000

2019 Old AAC 28,612,000
2019 New AAC 17,595,000
2019 mwc 8,677,000
2019 CUSA 167,000
2019 SBC 2,282,000
2020 MAC 2,532,000

2018 Old AAC 28,648,000
2018 New AAC 17,179,000
2018 mwc 5,806,000
2018 CUSA 0
2018 SBC 1,244,000
2018 MAC 3,005,000


2017 I have the AAC and the mwc, but not the others:
2017 Old AAC 21,894,000
2017 New AAC 14,451,000
2017 mwc 7,688,000

slhNavy91,

Navy will likely be Indy again in the next few months. I would not worry about it. You guys will be just fine.

-fanhood

I've edited away my name in this quoted portion - please do the same in your original to minimize doxxing.

Now, doubtful. The diminished AAC does less to advance Navy's strategic goals and reasons behind signing on a decade ago (rounding up 9.75 years). Things looked really good for the couple months window between 6+6 playoff looking like a done deal and UT/OU changing everything, and look a lot less good now.

But at this point with the larger changes, going back to independence does even less to advance Navy's strategic goals. And if anything, the scheduling/bowl challenges that were on the list as well as the strategic drive would be worse on short notice and mid-cycle. I'd rather have AAC schedule and bowls than Army's November schedule and bowl prospects.

I've written at greater length on this several times here and on the Realignment board.

Quote:Quick explanation of methodology up front. As noted in a separate thread on AAC football viewership, team by team, I broke down the last four years by team. The framework I was fitting in to used home games only for conference inventory, which resulted in UC, UH, and UCF being about 40% of AAC conference inventory viewers. That approach is obviously imperfect, so I did another run crediting all teams with any conference inventory games in which they were involved. This brought CCGs back in to the calculations, and nearly doubled the viewers counted, but percentage wise, the three leavers combined were within a couple percentage points of the home game only percentage, still just over 40% of AAC conference inventory.

So the below numbers for new AAC remove the home games of the three leavers from conference inventory viewers (yes imperfect, but proportionally on target for other methods of reducing viewers). Then compared to the conference inventory viewers of the G4 conferences.




CONFERENCE INVENTORY VIEWERSHIP:
2018-2020 Average Conf. Inv. Vwrs:
18-20 Old AAC 26,185,000
18-20 New AAC 16,343,000
18-20 ........mwc 6,877,000
18-20 .......CUSA 945,000
18-20 .........SBC 4,583,000
18-20 ........MAC 3,493,000


2020 Old AAC 21,294,000
2020 New AAC 14,256,000
2020 mwc 6,149,000
2020 CUSA 2,668,000
2020 SBC 10,224,000
2020 MAC 4,780,000

2019 Old AAC 28,612,000
2019 New AAC 17,595,000
2019 mwc 8,677,000
2019 CUSA 167,000
2019 SBC 2,282,000
2020 MAC 2,532,000

2018 Old AAC 28,648,000
2018 New AAC 17,179,000
2018 mwc 5,806,000
2018 CUSA 0
2018 SBC 1,244,000
2018 MAC 3,005,000


2017 I have the AAC and the mwc, but not the others:
2017 Old AAC 21,894,000
2017 New AAC 14,451,000
2017 mwc 7,688,000

Looking at those numbers, the AAC lost roughly a bit more than 1/3rd of their viewership, or more importantly, our value. Given, its only 4 years so its missing when Temple, Memphis, SMU and USF were a bit stronger but it gives us a good idea, roughly.

Now when we look at those numbers, its affected greatly by the AAC being with ESPN and the MWC being with CBS/Fox. Any team added to the better tv deal will get a bit of a bump, so direct comparison will be accurate.

So we need teams that can replace that... and there is none available.

If we did indeed lose right about 1/3rd of value, which I think is a decent guess, then we are looking at about $4.7 million a year per team.

Since I dont know how you arrived at these numbers, can you calculate what each team would need to bring in viewership order to match what we currently have?

Did you just add up total viewership and divide by number of teams in conference?

Would be interesting to see if there are any G5 teams outside of the MWC that with the better TV deal would add more than about $5 million worth of value. Its not looking good, so I am thinking that adding the fewest number of teams helps us.

Looking at these numbers, one has to wonder what in the heck CSU and AFA are thinking? The American’s (those of us who are left) viewership far surpasses that of the MWC. More viewers equals more exposure. That equals more money.

What are they thinking?

(10-01-2021 12:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 12:03 PM)fanhoodtheocho Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 11:53 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(10-01-2021 10:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-19-2021 08:55 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Here's the best link that I know of:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...s-nbc-abc/

If you scroll to the bottom, it allows you to get the viewership data for each of the past 7 or 8 years.

enjoy!

Seriously, JUST the 8 teams remaining after UC, UH, and UCF leave are better than the G4s.
Give me a minute...

Quick explanation of methodology up front. As noted in a separate thread on AAC football viewership, team by team, I broke down the last four years by team. The framework I was fitting in to used home games only for conference inventory, which resulted in UC, UH, and UCF being about 40% of AAC conference iinventory viewers. That approach is obviously imperfect, so I did another run crediting all teams with any conference inventory games in which they were involved. This brought CCGs back in to the calclulations, and nearly doubled the viewers counted, but percentage wise, the three leavers combined were within a couple percentage points of the home game only percentage, still just over 40% of AAC conference inventory.

So the below numbers for new AAC remove the home games of the three leavers from conference inventory viewers (yes imperfect, but proportionally on target for other methods of reducing viewers). Then compared to the conference inventory viewers of the G4 conferences.




CONFERENCE INVENTORY VIEWERSHIP:
2018-2020 Average Conf. Inv. Vwrs:
18-20 Old AAC 26,185,000
18-20 New AAC 16,343,000
18-20 ........mwc 6,877,000
18-20 .......CUSA 945,000
18-20 .........SBC 4,583,000
18-20 ........MAC 3,493,000


2020 Old AAC 21,294,000
2020 New AAC 14,256,000
2020 mwc 6,149,000
2020 CUSA 2,668,000
2020 SBC 10,224,000
2020 MAC 4,780,000

2019 Old AAC 28,612,000
2019 New AAC 17,595,000
2019 mwc 8,677,000
2019 CUSA 167,000
2019 SBC 2,282,000
2020 MAC 2,532,000

2018 Old AAC 28,648,000
2018 New AAC 17,179,000
2018 mwc 5,806,000
2018 CUSA 0
2018 SBC 1,244,000
2018 MAC 3,005,000


2017 I have the AAC and the mwc, but not the others:
2017 Old AAC 21,894,000
2017 New AAC 14,451,000
2017 mwc 7,688,000

slhNavy91,

Navy will likely be Indy again in the next few months. I would not worry about it. You guys will be just fine.

-FH

I've edited away my name in this quoted portion - please do the same in your original to minimize doxxing.

Now, doubtful. The diminished AAC does less to advance Navy's strategic goals and reasons behind signing on a decade ago (rounding up 9.75 years). Things looked really good for the couple months window between 6+6 playoff looking like a done deal and UT/OU changing everything, and look a lot less good now.

But at this point with the larger changes, going back to independence does even less to advance Navy's strategic goals. And if anything, the scheduling/bowl challenges that were on the list as well as the strategic drive would be worse on short notice and mid-cycle. I'd rather have AAC schedule and bowls than Army's November schedule and bowl prospects.

I've written at greater length on this several times here and on the Realignment board.

You are right on the dox. If you could delete this quote, I would appreciate it.

I still wear my Navy shirt by the way. It is my go to running attire. I get comments around the world.