(09-13-2021 02:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:23 PM)piratedj Wrote:  Anonymous sources close to decision makers say a move by JMU, Marshall, ODU, & So. Miss to the @SunBelt is highly likely. Troy would move to the west and the Sun Belt East would be:

JMU
App State
Marshall
ODU
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
Georgia State

STACKED Conference— JMU GAMEDAY (@JMUGameday) September 13, 2021

It looks like CUSA is going to fold.


Per a poster on one of our boards

Even if true---CUSA wont fold-----as the leftovers have nowhere else to go. It will just get a lot worse.

Totally agree - they won't fold. What happens to the SBC and CUSA will depend on what the AAC decides to do (for the most part).

Will the AAC go with market only? Football brand/performance only? or a bit of both?

I do think that if the AAC goes market only, and SBC grabs the football brand/performance teams from CUSA, then SBC's football should be in great shape.

Exiting to see how this is going to go :)

(09-13-2021 02:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:40 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  Wow, Sun Belt is moving fast.

Mike?!

AAC presidents are at an impasse. Aresco has vetted several programs. Several programs will accept if invites are sent out. The problem is academic ego and market vs success. The presidents can’t decide on what type of adds to go with.

Markets
FAU
FIU
ODU
JMU
Charlotte
GaSt
UNT
UTSA

Success/Brand
Marshall
App St
Coastal
UAB
USM
Louisiana
LaTech
stAte

Now some of those programs can be thrown out right off of the bat. But that’s what is happening. The SBC is being proactive. If you think SMU, ECU, Tulsa, USF and even Memphis hasn’t been contacted by the SBC you’d be wrong. Now, with that being said, some of those probably just hung up. But others are listening.

And anyone listening will immediately put the Sunbelt commissioner on hold to accept an incoming call from Aresco. That said, the CUSA could end up pretty ravaged.

well yeah, anyone listening is only doing it out of courtesy/relationship building.

(09-13-2021 01:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:40 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  Wow, Sun Belt is moving fast.

Mike?!

AAC presidents are at an impasse. Aresco has vetted several programs. Several programs will accept if invites are sent out. The problem is academic ego and market vs success. The presidents can’t decide on what type of adds to go with.

Markets
FAU
FIU
ODU
JMU
Charlotte
GaSt
UNT
UTSA

Success/Brand
Marshall
App St
Coastal
UAB
USM
Louisiana
LaTech
stAte

Now some of those programs can be thrown out right off of the bat. But that’s what is happening. The SBC is being proactive. If you think SMU, ECU, Tulsa, USF and even Memphis hasn’t been contacted by the SBC you’d be wrong. Now, with that being said, some of those probably just hung up. But others are listening.

Ive been saying from the start the conference had to decide what was important to them and that decision would make the selections obvious. However, its possible that the additions might reflect a compromise between multiple priorities----with some picks made for largely academic reasons and some selections made largely for athletic performance. If you look at the existing pool of candidates in the east----there are only two that give you academics, decent football performance, and decent basketball performance. Those are UAB and Buffalo. I think those two end up as reasonable compromises that could potentially flourish under the AAC TV deal.

App St, LaTech, and Marshall would be the best options for long term consistency with respect to football. Rice is the best remaining purely academic selection. If the MW schools are off the table---those schools mentioned are the schools that I'd expect it to come down to. I just dont see the presidents of SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, Navy, and USF completely ignoring academics in this expansion. I think they might compromise on academics to some degree---but I'd be shocked if they completely ignore academics in this round of realignment. As Frank mentioned, its much easier to rebuild a football program from the ashes than it is to raise the academic reputation of an existing institution. So---thats why I think Buffalo and UAB will get the nod as most all the AAC schools will agree they are acceptable. Then maybe the compromise comes in AppSt for Rice? Maybe the academic votes feel Buffalo and UAB each cover the academic side---so the last 2 picks can be all about sports. In that case, two of AppSt, LaTech, and Marshall could fill out the 4 team expansion.

This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

(09-13-2021 02:05 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:00 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:40 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  Wow, Sun Belt is moving fast.

Mike?!

AAC presidents are at an impasse. Aresco has vetted several programs. Several programs will accept if invites are sent out. The problem is academic ego and market vs success. The presidents can’t decide on what type of adds to go with.

Markets
FAU
FIU
ODU
JMU
Charlotte
GaSt
UNT
UTSA

Success/Brand
Marshall
App St
Coastal
UAB
USM
Louisiana
LaTech
stAte

Now some of those programs can be thrown out right off of the bat. But that’s what is happening. The SBC is being proactive. If you think SMU, ECU, Tulsa, USF and even Memphis hasn’t been contacted by the SBC you’d be wrong. Now, with that being said, some of those probably just hung up. But others are listening.

LOL. No one from AAC is going to Sun Belt that is ridiculous

I didn’t say that. I said they were in talks. Hate to break this to you, the AAC without UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will not get $7M per school. 3 of your 4 biggest properties have left the building.

Also any member institution that might want to join them in the Big 12 won’t enforce the GOR payout. They will be negotiated down, through scheduling agreements and other brokered deals.

Every team that is invited will accept an AAC invite. But to act like the AAC is in a position of strength right now is foolish. The wrong adds and y’all are toast as the top G5 league.

This is exactly why I wish the mods would ban non AAC fans for a period of 3 months so we dont have to listen to this stupidity. Its one thing to post stupid bull****, its another to be arrogant and brash about it.

Let me clue you in. Even without the three teams we are losing, the AAC will still make at a minimum $4 million which is EIGHT FAWCKING TIMES more than the Sunbelt.

Now if you want to say that somehow Memphis and USF are gonna walk away from EIGHT TIMES more money so we can go to the Sunbelt then I can tell you about some really great meds that will help. Id start with Lithium. Lots of it.

(09-13-2021 02:29 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:21 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:05 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:00 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  AAC presidents are at an impasse. Aresco has vetted several programs. Several programs will accept if invites are sent out. The problem is academic ego and market vs success. The presidents can’t decide on what type of adds to go with.

Markets
FAU
FIU
ODU
JMU
Charlotte
GaSt
UNT
UTSA

Success/Brand
Marshall
App St
Coastal
UAB
USM
Louisiana
LaTech
stAte

Now some of those programs can be thrown out right off of the bat. But that’s what is happening. The SBC is being proactive. If you think SMU, ECU, Tulsa, USF and even Memphis hasn’t been contacted by the SBC you’d be wrong. Now, with that being said, some of those probably just hung up. But others are listening.

LOL. No one from AAC is going to Sun Belt that is ridiculous

I didn’t say that. I said they were in talks. Hate to break this to you, the AAC without UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will not get $7M per school. 3 of your 4 biggest properties have left the building.

Also any member institution that might want to join them in the Big 12 won’t enforce the GOR payout. They will be negotiated down, through scheduling agreements and other brokered deals.

Every team that is invited will accept an AAC invite. But to act like the AAC is in a position of strength right now is foolish. The wrong adds and y’all are toast as the top G5 league.

Dude the SBC pays 100k per team in media rights, there is no way that the AAC drops from 7 million to that.
Just like the Big12 raided the AAC, the AAC will raid those below them not the other way around.

You can continue to speak from ignorance all you want. The SBC is paying more than $100k per member institutions. It also just signed a new deal with ESPN, kicking out its non-football members, going on the offensive in realignment all with ESPN’s backing.

Is the SBC better than the AAC media deal? We don’t know because ESPN will renegotiate since the big 3 left. If there wasn’t concern, or doubt that creeping into the AAC fans there should be. Since OU and UT announced their departure, the AAC has been on the clock.

Yet no adds have been made. No real rumors that are tied to sources, no talk on major networks about expansion. The right choice is take the best of CUSA and SBC. But follow the market strategy and the AAC is toast.

Like most posters since TX/OK announced departure to the SEC, you are projecting. The American is losing 3 solid schools, but those 3 are not as impactful as the B12 losing TX/OK. Like the B12, the American needs to add schools. We could add 2 or 4 or 6 depending on the value those adds would bring, balanced with the value of a larger or smaller conference. I don’t believe that the 3 departing schools are worth 99% of our ESPN contract which is the pay cut needed to bring us down to Sunbelt levels.

(09-13-2021 03:06 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

no school has gotten so much play out of one (admittedly) great season as Coastal Carolina. They have 1 winning season in FBS and suddenly a random Louisiana fan thinks they've already "outgrown" their roots in the sunbelt (roots having been set way back in 2017 that is)

(09-13-2021 03:06 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

Louisiana-Lafayette (and Arkansas State) tried like hell to get into Conference USA back when North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Western Kentucky were selected from the Sun Belt to help rebuild CUSA. This feeling of being left out is largely why Cajun and Red Wolf fans harbor bitter feelings towards those schools.

(09-13-2021 03:24 PM)mtmedlin Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:05 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:00 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 01:40 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  Wow, Sun Belt is moving fast.

Mike?!

AAC presidents are at an impasse. Aresco has vetted several programs. Several programs will accept if invites are sent out. The problem is academic ego and market vs success. The presidents can’t decide on what type of adds to go with.

Markets
FAU
FIU
ODU
JMU
Charlotte
GaSt
UNT
UTSA

Success/Brand
Marshall
App St
Coastal
UAB
USM
Louisiana
LaTech
stAte

Now some of those programs can be thrown out right off of the bat. But that’s what is happening. The SBC is being proactive. If you think SMU, ECU, Tulsa, USF and even Memphis hasn’t been contacted by the SBC you’d be wrong. Now, with that being said, some of those probably just hung up. But others are listening.

LOL. No one from AAC is going to Sun Belt that is ridiculous

I didn’t say that. I said they were in talks. Hate to break this to you, the AAC without UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will not get $7M per school. 3 of your 4 biggest properties have left the building.

Also any member institution that might want to join them in the Big 12 won’t enforce the GOR payout. They will be negotiated down, through scheduling agreements and other brokered deals.

Every team that is invited will accept an AAC invite. But to act like the AAC is in a position of strength right now is foolish. The wrong adds and y’all are toast as the top G5 league.

This is exactly why I wish the mods would ban non AAC fans for a period of 3 months so we dont have to listen to this stupidity. Its one thing to post stupid bull****, its another to be arrogant and brash about it.

Let me clue you in. Even without the three teams we are losing, the AAC will still make at a minimum $4 million which is EIGHT FAWCKING TIMES more than the Sunbelt.

Now if you want to say that somehow Memphis and USF are gonna walk away from EIGHT TIMES more money so we can go to the Sunbelt then I can tell you about some really great meds that will help. Id start with Lithium. Lots of it.

This. We could lose two more programs tomorrow, and it would still make more sense to add the majority of either CUSA or SBC than join one of them. It all comes down to whose base you want to cut out.

(09-13-2021 02:33 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:29 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:21 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:05 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 02:00 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  LOL. No one from AAC is going to Sun Belt that is ridiculous

I didn’t say that. I said they were in talks. Hate to break this to you, the AAC without UCF, Houston and Cincinnati will not get $7M per school. 3 of your 4 biggest properties have left the building.

Also any member institution that might want to join them in the Big 12 won’t enforce the GOR payout. They will be negotiated down, through scheduling agreements and other brokered deals.

Every team that is invited will accept an AAC invite. But to act like the AAC is in a position of strength right now is foolish. The wrong adds and y’all are toast as the top G5 league.

Dude the SBC pays 100k per team in media rights, there is no way that the AAC drops from 7 million to that.
Just like the Big12 raided the AAC, the AAC will raid those below them not the other way around.

You can continue to speak from ignorance all you want. The SBC is paying more than $100k per member institutions. It also just signed a new deal with ESPN, kicking out its non-football members, going on the offensive in realignment all with ESPN’s backing.

Is the SBC better than the AAC media deal? We don’t know because ESPN will renegotiate since the big 3 left. If there wasn’t concern, or doubt that creeping into the AAC fans there should be. Since OU and UT announced their departure, the AAC has been on the clock.

Yet no adds have been made. No real rumors that are tied to sources, no talk on major networks about expansion. The right choice is take the best of CUSA and SBC. But follow the market strategy and the AAC is toast.

LOL. Funny how you are on an AAC board acting like the SBC is all that and yet you are here because you know full well your school would jump if an AAC invite would come.
If you think the SBC is better then go post on an SBC board. The AAC is not toast, will end up better off money wise than SBC and will continue to win.

I’m personally 100% for a move to the American for Louisiana. But that doesn’t mean what I’m writing isn’t true.

I’d love to be in the same league as SMU, Memphis, and Tulane. ECU as well, but not if the adds include Louisiana and a bunch of zero success markets.

(09-13-2021 03:30 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 03:06 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

Louisiana-Lafayette (and Arkansas State) tried like hell to get into Conference USA back when North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Western Kentucky were selected from the Sun Belt to help rebuild CUSA. This feeling of being left out is largely why Cajun and Red Wolf fans harbor bitter feelings towards those schools.

Dude our former AD sent a power point presentation and flat out told CUSA officials we weren’t prepared to move. I’m not sure where you are getting your info from.

(09-13-2021 04:21 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 03:30 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 03:06 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

Louisiana-Lafayette (and Arkansas State) tried like hell to get into Conference USA back when North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Western Kentucky were selected from the Sun Belt to help rebuild CUSA. This feeling of being left out is largely why Cajun and Red Wolf fans harbor bitter feelings towards those schools.

Dude our former AD sent a power point presentation and flat out told CUSA officials we weren’t prepared to move. I’m not sure where you are getting your info from.

Why are you cooyons posting here. We already have The Tulane University of Louisiana

We don't want USL. Call yourself galactic University, I don't care You are still USL, maybe ULL. Take your little chuchuts and move on.

Divided country = divided conference. This would make for a fun AAC.

Markets (Leave Behind Women & Children in Afghanistan conference):
Memphis (leaving for L12 eventually)
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
ECU (you should be a brand)
USF

Brands (Storm the Capital conference):
App
Coastal
ULL
Marshall
USM
LT
Liberty

I get the impression that the Eastern flank of C-USA has some disgruntled institutions among them—ODU, Charlotte, and Marshall being the main ones.

We’ll have to see who leaves C-USA for the AAC but I can see a coup occurring within C-USA East to force reorganization with the SBC. If the AAC takes 2, I think as few as 5 C-USA schools could force the rest to go along provided their was support from the SBC to make it happen.

Aresco will get back to the Sun Belt teams once he figures out if he needs 1 or 2 more to go with the raid of the MWC.

(09-13-2021 03:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  App St, LaTech, and Marshall would be the best options for long term consistency with respect to football. Rice is the best remaining purely academic selection.

Agree on #1 App State and #2 Marshall. When it comes to Louisiana schools, #3 Louisiana's (ULL's) FB program has been slightly stronger than #4 Louisiana Tech's (LTU's) has been. However, the AAC might select LTU, if given the choice between the two, since LTU's BB program has been somewhat stronger than ULL's.

If the AAC wishes to add a strong academic school it seems more likely that the AAC will add Buffalo, as opposed to Rice, since Buffalo is an R1 AAU university, like Rice, has much stronger athletic programs, and is a state flagship school.

.

1. App. State is indisputably the strongest eastern FB school. App St leads the FBS with an average of 10.5 wins per season since 2014. They have a perfect bowl record, and they finished the 2019 season in the final AP top 25. Their FB viewership has been fairly strong (two 1M+ and four 500K+ games in 2020). However, they don't have a strong BB program. If they would be interested in joining the AAC as a FB-only member, it's hard to imagine that the AAC would turn them down.

The best possible replacement for a strong FB and BB school like Cincinnati would probably be App. State (FB) and one of the top A-10 BB schools, or perhaps, Loyola (IL).

2. Marshall has been the second strongest eastern FB school among the leading contenders over the 8 (8.76 wins/yr) and 10 years (8.2 wins/yr). Marshall's owl record over the past decade is 6-2 (.750). They've had two nationally ranked teams in the past decade, and Marshall finished in the top 25 in 2014. Further, like App. State, Marshall has also had fairly strong football viewership (e.g., three 2020 Marshall games averaged of 1.4 M viewers). Marshall could receive an all-sports invitation, since they've won 21.4 BB wins/yr over the past 5 seasons.

If App State and VCU would be the best possible replacement for Cincinnati, Marshall would be one of the strongest possible replacements for UCF. Marshall's FB program hasn't been as strong as UCF's, but its BB program is.

3. The third strongest eastern FB school, based on their winning record over the past 3, 8 and 10 years has been Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL). ULL has won 9.94, 7.88, and 8.1 wins/yr over the past 3, 8, and 10 years (based on 2020 win pct * 13 game season). ULL finished the 2020 season with a #15 ranking in the final AP FB poll. Their bowl record over the past decade is 6-2, and they had strong viewership in 2020 (4 games with an average of 1.35 M viewers). Their basketball program has won an average of 19.1 games per year, which would probably qualify ULL for an all-sports membership in the AAC.

4. Louisiana Tech (LTU) comes in fourth over the past 8 and 10 years with 7.8, and 7.95 wins/yr. However, LTU is only sixth on the list over the past 3 years with 8.2 wins/yr (based on 2020 win pct * 13 game season). Their bowl record over the past decade is 6-2. Their 2020 viewership was fair (two games with 500K+ viewers). However, LTU's basketball program has averaged nearly 23 wins/yr over the past decade, making them one of the stronger contenders for an all-sports membership, and they have played in 4 NIT tournaments since 2011, but they haven't earned a NCAA bid since 1991.

5. Buffalo had the third strongest G5 football program over the past three years, with 9.7 wins/year, and was sixth on the list over the past 8 and 10 years. Buffalo finished the 2020 season ranked #25 in the final AP football poll. Buffalo's 2020 viewership was fairly strong (3 games with an average of 1.2 M viewers). Buffalo's basketball team has played in the 2021 NIT tournament and in 4 of the past 6 NCAA tournaments, making Buffalo the strongest basketball school among the 7 strongest FB candidates for AAC membership. In addition, they finished #15th in the final 2019 AP top 25.

6. Western Kentucky was the fifth strongest FB program over the past 8 (7.68 wins/yr) and 10 (7.64 wins/yr) years. Their bowl record over the past decade is 4-3. Their 2020 viewership was fair (2 games with an average of ~800K viewers). Their basketball teams played in two NCAA tournaments in the past decade, in the 2018 and 2019 NIT, and averaged ~20 wins/year over the past decade, which could be enough to make them a possible all-sports member. Street & Smith's has ranked WKU as the #31 on the list of the greatest college basketball programs of all time.

7. UAB was seventh with 6.45 and 6.06 wins/yr over the past 8 and 10 years of their football program, but was fourth in the group over the past 3 years with an average of 9.6 wins in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Their 2020 viewership was somewhat disappointing (1 game with ~500 K viewers) Their basketball teams played in two NCAA tournaments in the past decade, and in the 2016 NIT, and averaged ~20 wins/year over the past decade, which might be enough to make them a possible all-sports member.

.

If all of the above schools are interested in joining, it appears that the best combination of FB/BB program quality, TV viewership, and academics would be:

1. Appalachian State (FB) and VCU, Dayton, St. Louis, or Loyola-Chicago (BB)
---A very strong FB program and a NCAA quality BB program.

2. Marshall (all-sports) - Strong FB & NIT quality BB program

3. Louisiana or Louisiana Tech (all sports) - Strong FB & potential NIT BB programs

4. Buffalo (all-sports) - Strong FB, NCAA-quality BB program & AAU/state flagship.

(09-13-2021 05:44 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 03:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  App St, LaTech, and Marshall would be the best options for long term consistency with respect to football. Rice is the best remaining purely academic selection.

Agree on #1 App State and #2 Marshall. When it comes to Louisiana schools, #3 Louisiana's (ULL's) FB program has been slightly stronger than #4 Louisiana Tech's (LTU's) has been. However, the AAC might select LTU, if given the choice between the two, since LTU's BB program has been somewhat stronger than ULL's.

If the AAC wishes to add a strong academic school it seems more likely that the AAC will add Buffalo, as opposed to Rice, since Buffalo is an R1 AAU university, like Rice, has much stronger athletic programs, and is a state flagship school.

.

1. App. State is indisputably the strongest eastern FB school. App St leads the FBS with an average of 10.5 wins per season since 2014. They have a perfect bowl record, and they finished the 2019 season in the final AP top 25. Their FB viewership has been fairly strong (two 1M+ and four 500K+ games in 2020). However, they don't have a strong BB program. If they would be interested in joining the AAC as a FB-only member, it's hard to imagine that the AAC would turn them down.

The best possible replacement for a strong FB and BB school like Cincinnati would probably be App. State (FB) and one of the top A-10 BB schools, or perhaps, Loyola (IL).

2. Marshall has been the second strongest eastern FB school among the leading contenders over the 8 (8.76 wins/yr) and 10 years (8.2 wins/yr). Marshall's owl record over the past decade is 6-2 (.750). They've had two nationally ranked teams in the past decade, and Marshall finished in the top 25 in 2014. Further, like App. State, Marshall has also had fairly strong football viewership (e.g., three 2020 Marshall games averaged of 1.4 M viewers). Marshall could receive an all-sports invitation, since they've won 21.4 BB wins/yr over the past 5 seasons.

If App State and VCU would be the best possible replacement for Cincinnati, Marshall would be one of the strongest possible replacements for UCF. Marshall's FB program hasn't been as strong as UCF's, but its BB program is.

3. The third strongest eastern FB school, based on their winning record over the past 3, 8 and 10 years has been Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL). ULL has won 9.94, 7.88, and 8.1 wins/yr over the past 3, 8, and 10 years (based on 2020 win pct * 13 game season). ULL finished the 2020 season with a #15 ranking in the final AP FB poll. Their bowl record over the past decade is 6-2, and they had strong viewership in 2020 (4 games with an average of 1.35 M viewers). Their basketball program has won an average of 19.1 games per year, which would probably qualify ULL for an all-sports membership in the AAC.

4. Louisiana Tech (LTU) comes in fourth over the past 8 and 10 years with 7.8, and 7.95 wins/yr. However, LTU is only sixth on the list over the past 3 years with 8.2 wins/yr (based on 2020 win pct * 13 game season). Their bowl record over the past decade is 6-2. Their 2020 viewership was fair (two games with 500K+ viewers). However, LTU's basketball program has averaged nearly 23 wins/yr over the past decade, making them one of the stronger contenders for an all-sports membership, and they have played in 4 NIT tournaments since 2011, but they haven't earned a NCAA bid since 1991.

5. Buffalo had the third strongest G5 football program over the past three years, with 9.7 wins/year, and was sixth on the list over the past 8 and 10 years. Buffalo finished the 2020 season ranked #25 in the final AP football poll. Buffalo's 2020 viewership was fairly strong (3 games with an average of 1.2 M viewers). Buffalo's basketball team has played in the 2021 NIT tournament and in 4 of the past 6 NCAA tournaments, making Buffalo the strongest basketball school among the 7 strongest FB candidates for AAC membership. In addition, they finished #15th in the final 2019 AP top 25.

6. Western Kentucky was the fifth strongest FB program over the past 8 (7.68 wins/yr) and 10 (7.64 wins/yr) years. Their bowl record over the past decade is 4-3. Their 2020 viewership was fair (2 games with an average of ~800K viewers). Their basketball teams played in two NCAA tournaments in the past decade, in the 2018 and 2019 NIT, and averaged ~20 wins/year over the past decade, which could be enough to make them a possible all-sports member. Street & Smith's has ranked WKU as the #31 on the list of the greatest college basketball programs of all time.

7. UAB was seventh with 6.45 and 6.06 wins/yr over the past 8 and 10 years of their football program, but was fourth in the group over the past 3 years with an average of 9.6 wins in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Their 2020 viewership was somewhat disappointing (1 game with ~500 K viewers) Their basketball teams played in two NCAA tournaments in the past decade, and in the 2016 NIT, and averaged ~20 wins/year over the past decade, which might be enough to make them a possible all-sports member.

.

If all of the above schools are interested in joining, it appears that the best combination of FB/BB program quality, TV viewership, and academics would be:

1. Appalachian State (FB) and VCU, Dayton, St. Louis, or Loyola-Chicago (BB)
---A very strong FB program and a NCAA quality BB program.

2. Marshall (all-sports) - Strong FB & NIT quality BB program

3. Louisiana or Louisiana Tech (all sports) - Strong FB & potential NIT BB programs

4. Buffalo (all-sports) - Strong FB, NCAA-quality BB program & AAU/state flagship.

I think this is the best total write up I’ve seen. Good data and reasoning! MWC schools don’t seem realistic with another B-12 expansion looming.
Although I like Rice more than Buffalo.

As to that article the Vermilion writes a version of that every couple years, they just finally updated it to say AAC instead of CUSA.

I think there is a near zero chance AAC invites AState but even if B12 raided out Memphis and say USF, AState would accept not because of the money (money is nice but I think it’s been overrated this time around) but because of the schools. Affiliating with Tulsa, SMU, Tulane, Navy, ECU, Temple, Wichita State is good for us. Mostly regional schools and pressure to get hoops back to where it was late 80’s early 90’s at least.

CUSA won’t go out of business. Lose four to AAC and 2-3 to Sun Belt they are worst case scenario at 7 in an environment where Liberty and NMSU would leap, and FCS schools EKU, and probably Central Arkansas, and JMU would love to move up.

(09-13-2021 04:36 PM)everyone Wrote:  Divided country = divided conference. This would make for a fun AAC.

Markets (Leave Behind Women & Children in Afghanistan conference):
Memphis (leaving for L12 eventually)
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
ECU (you should be a brand)
USF

Brands (Storm the Capital conference):
App St.
Coastal
ULL
Marshall
USM
LT
Liberty

App St (FB only) and Marshall might be invited, and ULL, LT, or Coastal (but not all 3) could be, but not USM or Liberty, and Buffalo might have the most to offer the AAC when it comes to FB (bowl quality), BB (NCAA quality), and academics, combined.

The American might invite Coastal Carolina if it really wants to add another FB member, so that it can take advantage of the opportunity to add another top-tier basketball school.

If the conference's top priority would be to strengthen AAC basketball, they could add App St. and (#16) Coastal as FB members, VCU and Dayton as basketball members, and Buffalo and Marshall as FB members.

That would give the AAC at least six NCAA or NIT quality BB programs:

"AAC 2.0" BB: Memphis, Wichita St., VCU, Dayton, SMU, & UB

The "AAC 2.0" would also have 8 bowl-quality FB programs:

"AAC 2.0" FB: Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, App St, Marshall, Coastal, & UB

A case could be made that an AAC 2.0 with these additions would be able to put more teams into the final AP FB and BB top 25 than "AAC 1.0" has had in the FB and BB top 25 in an average year.*

*"AAC 1.0" has had an average of 2.0 teams in the final AP top 25 and an average of 3.0 teams in the NCAA tournament since 2013.

(09-13-2021 03:30 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(09-13-2021 03:06 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  This interesting article suggests that Louisiana-Lafayette might be better off in the American:

THE VERMILION

UL football being held back by SBC

Caleb Williams Sep 6, 2021

"With teams such as Coastal Carolina (our only season loss during our historic season) and Appalachian State who has beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt championship twice, an invitation to a bigger conference with these three teams would be a great inclusion. With the hypothetical inclusion, increased competition leads to more viewership which results in more money for that conference. The only other Group of Five conference worth interest would be the American Athletic Conference."

"Though a conference switch is not highly talked about, it would be a good thing for Louisiana. Louisiana and Coastal Carolina have outgrown their roots in the Sun Belt and it is time for a fresh start."

Louisiana-Lafayette (and Arkansas State) tried like hell to get into Conference USA back when North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Western Kentucky were selected from the Sun Belt to help rebuild CUSA. This feeling of being left out is largely why Cajun and Red Wolf fans harbor bitter feelings towards those schools.

I agree but I also think CCU has a lot of potential to keep it going. They've got a pretty good G5 budget and a great location for recruiting. They're about to build an indoor practice facility too.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk