RE: OU and UT last season in the big 12 will be?
As of today, they're staying until June 30, 2025. That's the date of the end of the GOR and that's also the date of the termination of the existing Telecast Agreements. So far, they've said that they are going to abide by the contracts and the only thing that will change that is a negotiated settlement. Which, although likely to be conducted privately so we don't really know, haven't even started. The currently-being-negotiated new SEC deal with ESPN is likely to begin on July 1, 2024 so that is UT's and OU's ultimate target date although they would probably like to be gone ASAP.
They gave notice of their withdrawal in July and accepted an invitation to join the SEC. But they are now (apparently) taking the position that they have yet to give official notice. That's because the bylaws provide that once notice of withdrawal is given, the "Interim Period" begins, which allows the Big 12 to begin withholding all revenue distributions which are paid out each June. That's roughly $40 million per year for 4 years from each school - aggregating $160 million (each). The bylaws also anticipated only an 18-month notice and withholdings were thus anticipated to be only 2 years, which would total $80 million each. But the A&M leak caused them to make the gleeful announcement 2 years earlier than necessary or anticipated. Regardless of what they say, withholdings will actually begin next June. In addition, if they attempt to break the GOR early, they will, in theory, owe a GOR component including the media amounts they effectively earn in the SEC; regardless of how the SEC may (or may not) structure their "entrance fee" payments (i.e., withholding media money from the revenue distribution and giving them only a partial distribution).
Therein lies the basis of the settlement negotiations. They want to leave as early as possible, but they don't want to pay any money for it. Despite the contracts; with which they claim they are going to abide. $40 million, so to speak, is already in the can, in the sense that withholdings will begin next June. If agreement is not reached by December 31, 2021, that's another $40 million in the can. Because of the anticipated 2 years' withholdings, the basic floor of the overall amount owed is $80 million, that is, the Buyout Amount with no GOR component. But if they leave early, there would be an additional GOR component (in theory, 2/3rd's of the projected SEC revenue distribution of $65-75 million per school (or more)). So, the negotiating range is between $80 million and $160 million (if they stay until 2025) and $80 million and $200 million (or more) if they leave even 1 year early. Each.
That's a lot of money (and vastly exceeds the AAC's $10 million exit fee requirement, which seems piddly by comparison). The Big 12 has a duty to mitigate the damages and that is why we moved so quickly with expansion. And expansion being wound up shortly and the Big 12 media money projections having spiked because of that (to roughly $20-25 million per school per year which translates into a $30-37.5 million per school per year overall distribution) means that there are now fewer damages and less of incentive to hold UT and OU to their contracts. So, it makes settlement more likely, but doesn't change the negotiating range or the amounts owed. Nor does it change the incentive to hold them accountable for breaching their 99-year commitment, the 12-hour notice provition or the requirement that they should have immediately and firmly rejected any offer from another conference.
So who knows? It seems likely that there will be a settlement, but if not, they'll stay until 2025 and $160 million each will be withheld. Or there'll be a very expensive very public lawsuit. What will the amount of the settlement be? When will they actually leave? It's unclear at the moment...
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