If tv contract negotiations will occur in 2024, I would think the big 12 would want to play without OU or UT in 24, possibly 23.

I think 2022 will be the last season for OU and Texas. Should be a pretty seamless transition with the new teams coming in for 2023.

if 23 is the first year of the new big 12 without OU&UT then negotiation could occur in the Spring of 24 allowing the creation of a big 14 in 2025

As of today, they're staying until June 30, 2025. That's the date of the end of the GOR and that's also the date of the termination of the existing Telecast Agreements. So far, they've said that they are going to abide by the contracts and the only thing that will change that is a negotiated settlement. Which, although likely to be conducted privately so we don't really know, haven't even started. The currently-being-negotiated new SEC deal with ESPN is likely to begin on July 1, 2024 so that is UT's and OU's ultimate target date although they would probably like to be gone ASAP.

They gave notice of their withdrawal in July and accepted an invitation to join the SEC. But they are now (apparently) taking the position that they have yet to give official notice. That's because the bylaws provide that once notice of withdrawal is given, the "Interim Period" begins, which allows the Big 12 to begin withholding all revenue distributions which are paid out each June. That's roughly $40 million per year for 4 years from each school - aggregating $160 million (each). The bylaws also anticipated only an 18-month notice and withholdings were thus anticipated to be only 2 years, which would total $80 million each. But the A&M leak caused them to make the gleeful announcement 2 years earlier than necessary or anticipated. Regardless of what they say, withholdings will actually begin next June. In addition, if they attempt to break the GOR early, they will, in theory, owe a GOR component including the media amounts they effectively earn in the SEC; regardless of how the SEC may (or may not) structure their "entrance fee" payments (i.e., withholding media money from the revenue distribution and giving them only a partial distribution).

Therein lies the basis of the settlement negotiations. They want to leave as early as possible, but they don't want to pay any money for it. Despite the contracts; with which they claim they are going to abide. $40 million, so to speak, is already in the can, in the sense that withholdings will begin next June. If agreement is not reached by December 31, 2021, that's another $40 million in the can. Because of the anticipated 2 years' withholdings, the basic floor of the overall amount owed is $80 million, that is, the Buyout Amount with no GOR component. But if they leave early, there would be an additional GOR component (in theory, 2/3rd's of the projected SEC revenue distribution of $65-75 million per school (or more)). So, the negotiating range is between $80 million and $160 million (if they stay until 2025) and $80 million and $200 million (or more) if they leave even 1 year early. Each.

That's a lot of money (and vastly exceeds the AAC's $10 million exit fee requirement, which seems piddly by comparison). The Big 12 has a duty to mitigate the damages and that is why we moved so quickly with expansion. And expansion being wound up shortly and the Big 12 media money projections having spiked because of that (to roughly $20-25 million per school per year which translates into a $30-37.5 million per school per year overall distribution) means that there are now fewer damages and less of incentive to hold UT and OU to their contracts. So, it makes settlement more likely, but doesn't change the negotiating range or the amounts owed. Nor does it change the incentive to hold them accountable for breaching their 99-year commitment, the 12-hour notice provition or the requirement that they should have immediately and firmly rejected any offer from another conference.

So who knows? It seems likely that there will be a settlement, but if not, they'll stay until 2025 and $160 million each will be withheld. Or there'll be a very expensive very public lawsuit. What will the amount of the settlement be? When will they actually leave? It's unclear at the moment...

I already dis-owned them.
*shrugs*

Today's vote gave some indication that UT and OU will indeed be staying until 2025. They both are apparently maintaining the fiction that they haven's given an official notice of withdrawal as yet, that is, that they have only given official notice of not renewing the GOR. The vote today - per the press release - was 8-0, a unanimous vote of all remaining schools. In their view, UT and OU either just didn't vote or abstained. In reality, they didn't vote because the bylaws provide that, once Notice of Withdrawal is given, the Interim Period begins. And withholdings start. So, this is a difference between an $80 million withholding amount (2 years) or a $160 million withholding amount (4 years). This issue will come to a head next June when the Big 12 either withholds $40 million or not. So, there will either be a settlement prior to next June or, possibly, legal action by UT and OU to recover the amounts withheld. While this remains unclear, the actual exit date remains unclear.

I'm guessing they will be out when the new teams join in 23 and there will be a lot of money shifting hands, TV partners, league offices, etc... all at the table to enable this to happen and to make sure everyone is made whole.

(09-08-2021 09:18 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  I think 2022 will be the last season for OU and Texas. Should be a pretty seamless transition with the new teams coming in for 2023.

This.

(09-10-2021 03:05 PM)Jared7 Wrote:  Today's vote gave some indication that UT and OU will indeed be staying until 2025. They both are apparently maintaining the fiction that they haven's given an official notice of withdrawal as yet, that is, that they have only given official notice of not renewing the GOR. The vote today - per the press release - was 8-0, a unanimous vote of all remaining schools. In their view, UT and OU either just didn't vote or abstained. In reality, they didn't vote because the bylaws provide that, once Notice of Withdrawal is given, the Interim Period begins. And withholdings start. So, this is a difference between an $80 million withholding amount (2 years) or a $160 million withholding amount (4 years). This issue will come to a head next June when the Big 12 either withholds $40 million or not. So, there will either be a settlement prior to next June or, possibly, legal action by UT and OU to recover the amounts withheld. While this remains unclear, the actual exit date remains unclear.

OK and TEX almost have to do that for negotiation purposes.

I now think that we're looking at a mutually negotiated date of July 1, 2023 as the target for when all teams move to their new conferences. Ironically, it was the Big 12's negotiation of a 2023 entrance for BYU and Houston that set this in motion. 2022 was considered, but BYU preferred 2023 because of the difficulty in unwinding some/all of their current commitments and Houston has a big money donor that will pay whatever it takes to go in 2023. To me, that means that the Big 12 will be more open to losing UT and OU in 2023 because replacements will be available to fill the schedule and meet the requirements of the Telecast Agreements. So, to me, while the price for 2022 remains very high, the price for 2023 has gone down. I expect UT and OU (and the SEC and ESPN) will go for it. That would mean 2 years of Buyout Amount withholdings ($80 million) plus an unknown GOR component and possible other inducements. Those could include but would not necessarily be limited to an agreement to make the Big 12's existing Telecast Agreements whole; a negotiated extension of the Sugar Bowl tie-in, a UT scheduling agreement with Tech; an OU scheduling agreement with OSU (although the Cowboys have been balking at this and have been talking to Nebraska instead); other SEC games with Big 12 schools; other bowl tie-ins between the 2 conferences; basketball games; a verbal assurance from ESPN and Fox of new media deals/offers; a verbal assurance of SEC support for continuing A5 status; a verbal assurance of continuing SEC support for the Big 12 remaining a P5 conference for CFP money purposes; more development of Big 12 Now and ESPN+; possible money help for the AAC schools facing exit fees and...

The Big 12 is looking for stability and assured continuing status. ESPM, Fox, UT, OU and the SEC are in a position to deliver (at least partially) some of all of that. If "everyone" wants this resolved, I think that is the path.

I think once OU and UT declare their departure date, especially if before 25, the big 12 will add 2 more. I believe the current tv contract limits the big 12 to 14 teams

(09-14-2021 10:41 PM)Huan Wrote:  I think once OU and UT declare their departure date, especially if before 25, the big 12 will add 2 more. I believe the current tv contract limits the big 12 to 14 teams

would not surprise me one way or the other. A deal has to be made and in place before Departure dates are made. I personally think they will be in SEC for 2023 season.

I really struggle seeing the dying marriage last for two whole athletic years.

It won't (probably) be 2022. The SEC is announcing their 2022 schedule tonight and it won't include UT and OU. Things could always change, but it now looks like 2023 would be the earliest.

Hoping for 2025 so the Big12 can send them on road trips to all the new schools.

(09-21-2021 11:08 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  It won't (probably) be 2022. The SEC is announcing their 2022 schedule tonight and it won't include UT and OU. Things could always change, but it now looks like 2023 would be the earliest.

No one thinks they are gone in 22. But it is very possible 22 is the last year, for everyone involved.

(09-21-2021 03:41 PM)whiteman Wrote:  Hoping for 2025 so the Big12 can send them on road trips to all the new schools.

This ^^^

And I will totally want Houston in Big12 for 2023

(09-21-2021 09:55 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-21-2021 11:08 AM)Jared7 Wrote:  It won't (probably) be 2022. The SEC is announcing their 2022 schedule tonight and it won't include UT and OU. Things could always change, but it now looks like 2023 would be the earliest.

No one thinks they are gone in 22. But it is very possible 22 is the last year, for everyone involved.

i hope it plays out this way ('23) for all - including the incoming schools