Conference USA 2021 football preview: Who will challenge UAB in a compelling race? Predictions, players to watch
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Conference USA needs a bounce-back year.
No league was hampered more by COVID-19 cancellations last season, so much so that conference champion UAB nearly missed the conference title game by virtue of not playing enough games. Then C-USA went 0-6 in bowl games, and UAB’s bowl was canceled. Old Dominion didn’t even play, opting out of the whole season.
But there are reasons for optimism between the talent coming back on the field and the new coaches entering the league. UAB also has a new stadium opening. The 14-team conference that spans three time zones has long lacked an identity, but the football teams will be interesting to watch. Can UAB win three titles in four years? Can Charles Huff get Marshall over the hump? Here are picks, predictions and questions.
Biggest storyline: Can Conference USA produce an elite team?
Conference USA and the Sun Belt are the two Group of 5 conferences that have yet to earn a New Year’s Six bowl spot. Entering 2021, the Sun Belt has two preseason Top 25 teams and appears to be on the upswing. In C-USA, UAB won the conference last year but finished 6-3 in the regular season, and the league went winless in bowl games. UAB has been the class of the league over the past three years, but it hasn’t reached the AP Top 25.
FAU has fallen back after some good years under Lane Kiffin. Marshall fell apart after reaching the top 20 last year. There are several well-resourced programs in the conference, but they haven’t had a breakthrough year to contend for the New Year’s Six. There is a lot of parity in this league, and that’s not a good thing. Conferences are defined by their top teams.
Top three nonconference games
UTSA at Illinois (Sept. 4)
Marshall at Appalachian State (Sept. 23)
Liberty at UAB (Oct. 2)
UTSA’s opening trip to Illinois is a big chance to score a Power 5 win, though Illinois will have a game under its belt already. Marshall upset Appalachian State a year ago en route to a top-20 ranking at the time. And UAB will open its new stadium against Liberty, a potential Top 25 opponent that went 10-1 last season. C-USA needs some big nonconference wins to make a statement.
Top three conference games
UTSA at WKU (Oct. 9)
UAB at Marshall (Nov. 13)
UAB at UTSA (Nov. 20)
UTSA’s trip to WKU is a must-win cross-division game for two teams hoping to win their side of the standings. UAB at Marshall is a rematch of last year’s C-USA title game and could be a preview once again. UAB’s late-season trip to UTSA could have the West division on the line, as the Blazers’ win against the Roadrunners a year ago is what made the difference.
Breakout player: Bailey Zappe, QB, WKU
WKU needed to fix an offense that was among the nation’s worst, so it essentially imported the Houston Baptist offense from FCS. WKU hired HBU offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and added Zappe and his top three receivers. In four games last season, including three against FBS teams, Zappe averaged 458.3 passing yards per game (most in college football) with a 65.6 completion percentage, 15 touchdowns and one interception.
Another player to watch here is UAB running back DeWayne McBride.
Offensive player of the year: Sincere McCormick, RB, UTSA
McCormick has rushed for 2,450 yards and 5.8 yards per carry over the past two seasons and enters 2021 as one of the best running backs in the country. He’s added 44 catches in that span, becoming a true weapon all over the field. His 1,467 rushing yards in 11 games last year ranked second nationally. With his entire offensive line back, McCormick should have another monster season.
Other candidates to watch include Zappe, Marshall quarterback Grant Wells and Charlotte quarterback Chris Reynolds.
Defensive player of the year: Kristopher Moll, DB, UAB
The defensive back-turned-linebacker is back to a safety role for the Blazers. He’s a two-time first-team all-conference player who can play all over the field. In three seasons as a starter, Moll has racked up 218 tackles, 26.5 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, one interception and five forced fumbles.
Other candidates to watch include WKU defensive end DeAngelo Malone (the 2019 winner), Louisiana Tech linebacker Tyler Grubbs and Marshall cornerback Steven Gilmore.
Conference sleeper: WKU
UAB, Marshall and UTSA look like the top group in C-USA, but keep an eye on WKU for the reasons listed above. Houston Baptist averaged 547.5 yards per game in the truncated four-game season. If the pieces click in Bowling Green, look out. The defense at WKU has been solid, but the loss of defensive coordinator Clayton White to South Carolina was big.
Projected standings
West Division
1. UAB (Conference champion)
The Blazers went from the exiled program to Cinderella to king of the conference almost overnight, winning two of the past three C-USA titles and becoming the first program in league history to win three consecutive division crowns. Now, only three players on the 2021 team remember what it was like to not have a season. The passing game has been up-and-down and new receivers must emerge, but quarterback Tyler Johnston III is likely to resume his role as the starter. Former running back Spencer Brown departed with all the program’s rushing records, but coaches love sophomore DeWayne McBride, who averaged 9.3 yards per carry on 47 rushes last year. Four returning seniors anchor one of the best offensive lines in the conference. The defense has been among C-USA’s best for years, and disruptive edge rusher Jordan Smith must be replaced, but there is depth across the board, plus the return of cornerback Starling Thomas V, who missed 2020. UAB opens its new Protective Stadium on Oct. 2 after it begins the season with four games away from home, including trips to Georgia, North Texas and Tulane.
2. UTSA
The Roadrunners took a huge step forward in head coach Jeff Traylor’s first season, going 7-5 and 5-2 in conference play, the most C-USA wins of any team. Despite several quarterback injuries, UTSA jumped from No. 117 in scoring in 2019 to No. 67 last year. Running back Sincere McCormick led the league in rushing and is one of 10 starters back on offense, along with quarterback Frank Harris. The defense jumped from No. 112 in scoring to No. 41, and essentially every starter is back, led by talented safety Rashad Wisdom. The Roadrunners miss Marshall on the schedule and get UAB at home late in the year.
3. Louisiana Tech
Last season, Louisiana Tech finished 5-5 and went to a bowl game for the seventh consecutive season. But with four losses by at least two touchdowns and three wins by four points or fewer, it was a down year. The offense struggled the move the ball both on the ground and through the air, but now the addition of former West Virginia starting quarterback Austin Kendall puts an experienced player in the QB battle. Former Appalachian State running back Marcus Williams Jr. could bring more juice on the ground as well. The defense brings back 10 starters from a group that allowed at least 30 points in eight of 10 games. Head coach Skip Holtz has the track record to believe Louisiana Tech will be a tough out again, but skill players need to stand out. Nonconference games against Mississippi State, SMU and NC State will be interesting to watch.
4. Southern Miss
New head coach Will Hall has brought a lot of excitement as a native Mississippian and son of a legendary high school coach in the state. Recruiting also ticked up after he arrived — a lot of positive vibes after the Golden Eagles had three head coaches last year. There’s an opportunity for a step up if quarterback play improves. Trey Lowe III, a former West Virginia transfer, appears to have the lead for the job, while incoming freshman Ty Keyes, a late recruiting flip from Tulane, is in the mix as well. Frank Gore Jr. looks like a budding star at running back after rushing for 708 yards and 5.9 yards as a freshman. The defense lost several starters before last season, but some of them returned under Hall, which should make for an experienced group. A nonconference schedule against South Alabama, Grambling, Troy will determine if a bowl game is possible.
5. North Texas
North Texas games were certainly exciting last year, even if they didn’t always turn out great for the Mean Green. North Texas led C-USA in scoring, passing and rushing offense, but it finished last defensively in those stats, leading to a 4-6 record, with a month of postponements between two 2-3 stretches. There were a lot of points. Star receiver Jaelon Darden is gone, but Austin Aune should be solid at quarterback after splitting time a year ago, finishing with 8.9 yards per pass, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Four of five starting offensive linemen and both leading rushers return in DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III. But success will depend on the defense, which has a third coordinator in as many years, now with Phil Bennett. Every aspect of the group needs to be better, especially after allowing 500 rushing yards against Appalachian State in the bowl game. Seth Littrell has gone from one of the hot names in the coaching carousel to needing to turn things around after consecutive losing seasons.
6. Rice
The Owls finished 2-3 last year with a 20-0 win against Marshall and narrow losses to UAB and Middle Tennessee, so it was a mixed bag. The offense hasn’t been any good for a half-decade now, so the hope is the addition of offensive coordinator Marques Tuiasosopo and quarterback Luke McCaffrey can jump-start things, though a QB battle is ongoing. Eight defensive starters are back from one of the better groups in the league, which has showed continued improvement under coordinator Brian Smith, though top linebacker Blaze Alldredge transferred to Missouri. The nonconference schedule with games against Arkansas, Houston and Texas could mean a better C-USA season is needed for a bowl trip.
7. UTEP
Things have slowly gotten better, but will it be good enough? UTEP’s 3-5 season featured its most wins since 2016, but two of those wins were closer-than-you’d-like victories against FCS opponents and winless ULM. There are new coordinators in Dave Warner (offense) and Bradley Dale Peveto (defense) in what is a make-or-break year for head coach Dana Dimel. Quarterback Gavin Hardison and running back Deion Hankins have shown promise at times, but the Miners need more consistency and more explosiveness. Several new starters are needed on defense, but the rush defense and pass rush were respectable and three starters are back on the line.
East Division
1. Marshall
Last year’s team started 7-0 and reached the top 20 in the polls. But a 20-0 loss to Rice sparked a collapse and three-game losing streak to end the season, and head coach Doc Holliday’s contract was not renewed. Enter Charles Huff, an Alabama assistant and one of the best recruiters in the country. He takes over a team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, led by quarterback Grant Wells, who passed for 2,091 yards and 18 touchdowns. He was exceptional before a five-interception performance against Rice, struggling down the stretch like the rest of the team. He’ll have the same offensive coordinator in Tim Cramsey, so the hope is the Wells from the first half of the season can return. All-conference running back Brendan Knox graduated, All-American offensive guard Cain Madden transferred to Notre Dame and No. 2 receiver Artie Henry transferred to Virginia, but receiver Corey Gammage and tight end Xavier Gaines give Wells weapons. The defense finished No. 1 nationally in scoring and No. 2 in yards per game allowed, and Lance Guidry will lead a group that returns as many as eight starters. Nonconference matchups with Navy, East Carolina and Appalachian State are worth keeping an eye on.
2. Western Kentucky
WKU might be the most fascinating offensive experiment I’ve seen in college football in some time, importing the bulk of a passing offense from another team, in this case Houston Baptist from the FCS. It’s needed, as the offense was dreadful last year. The defense was solid, which is why coordinator Clayton White was hired at South Carolina. Maurice Crum was promoted to the defensive coordinator job, and several new starters are needed. Defensive end DeAngelo Malone, the 2019 conference defensive player of the year, is a good anchor to have.
3. FAU
Willie Taggart’s first season produced a 5-4 record and a bowl appearance with several ups and downs, and the Owls closed on a three-game losing streak. To fix the offense, FAU added former Miami (Fla.) quarterback N’Kosi Perry and former Penn State quarterback Michael Johnson Jr., also hiring Johnson’s father as offensive coordinator. Those QBs are battling with last year’s starters, Nick Tronti and Javion Posey. Former USF running back Johnny Ford should provide production in a deep group as well. Last year’s defense was among the better units in C-USA, carrying the team early in the season, and as many as 10 starters are back, led by cornerback Zyon Gilbert. Coordinator Jim Leavitt left for SMU, and former Oklahoma assistant Mike Stoops took over in Boca.
4. Charlotte
Perhaps no team in the country was affected by COVID-19 postponements/cancellations as much as Charlotte, which finished 2-4 in a strange season in which nine games were moved or canceled. The program has been trending up under Will Healy otherwise, and that should translate on the field. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is back and healthy after being hampered by a shoulder issue last year. He’s closing in on school records and has several talented targets to use as well, including veteran receiver Victor Tucker. But Texas A&M transfer James Foster is fighting for the job as well. The defense must improve on last year’s poor numbers if the 49ers want to get back to a bowl game, and the influx of transfers like Notre Dame defensive end Kofi Wardlow and Kansas State safety Jon Alexander will help.
5. Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders haven’t been able to find success since quarterback Brent Stockstill graduated two years ago, with consecutive losing seasons since reaching the C-USA title game in 2018. Second-team All-C-USA quarterback Asher O’Hara transferred to Sacramento State, and MTSU added NC State quarterback Bailey Hockman and offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon from Kansas. There are weapons at receiver in Jarrin Pierce, Yusuf Ali and CJ Windham. As many as 10 defensive starters return, including all-conference safeties Gregory Grate and Reed Blankenship, but the group as a whole needs to improve at every level.
6. FIU
Three consecutive bowl trips were followed by last year’s 0-5 collapse amid a slew of injuries and holes. A four-man quarterback battle has worked its way into camp after FIU was the worst passing team in the league last year, but there are pieces to like for the offense to regroup. Running back D’vonte Price averaged 116 rushing yards per game in the shortened season, and receiver Shemar Thornton is back after an Achilles injury wiped away his 2020. Receiver Bryce Singleton led FIU in catches, but he had just 14 receptions for 150 yards. The defense returns nine starters and added linebacker Eric Mitchell from UCF. The hope is a normal season will get the program back on track for Butch Davis.
7. Old Dominion
Old Dominion is of the most interesting teams of 2021 after the Monarchs opted out of the 2020 season. Head coach Ricky Rahne is in his first season even though it’s now his second year, and the team put on a happy face to say running a camp last fall instead of playing games helped the development more than navigating postponements and cancellations. At quarterback, former UCF starter Darriel Mack Jr. is part of a three-man battle with 2019 starters Stone Smartt and Hayden Wolff. Former five-star running back Ricky Slade had transferred into the program from Penn State to play with Rahne, but he’s no longer part of the team. After so long since the Monarchs last played a game and with so many new starters on both sides as part of a new staff, it’s hard to predict what the Monarchs will look like.
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The Athletic: Conference USA 2021 football preview
