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I remember when C-USA folks thought for sure that C-USA was gonna convince Big East schools to join C-USA.

This will play out like the Big East/ACC. It will be timed to ensure the Big 12 lives and absorbs what it wants, rather than leftover Big 12s having to go where they can land. The lawyers are already following the money.

And that Alliance? It's really a path to transfer some teams around without a bunch of lawsuits.

Assuming the role of Captain Obvious here, but we need that breakthrough season. Do what UCF did and win them all. Name ourselves National Champs after we get left out of the CFP.

(08-25-2021 04:09 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  I remember when C-USA folks thought for sure that C-USA was gonna convince Big East schools to join C-USA.

This will play out like the Big East/ACC. It will be timed to ensure the Big 12 lives and absorbs what it wants, rather than leftover Big 12s having to go where they can land. The lawyers are already following the money.

And that Alliance? It's really a path to transfer some teams around without a bunch of lawsuits.

And maintain some semblance of a P5 or autonomous conference such as it is(or will be).

(08-25-2021 04:21 PM)WesternBlazer Wrote:  

(08-25-2021 04:09 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  I remember when C-USA folks thought for sure that C-USA was gonna convince Big East schools to join C-USA.

This will play out like the Big East/ACC. It will be timed to ensure the Big 12 lives and absorbs what it wants, rather than leftover Big 12s having to go where they can land. The lawyers are already following the money.

And that Alliance? It's really a path to transfer some teams around without a bunch of lawsuits.

And maintain some semblance of a P5 or autonomous conference such as it is(or will be).

They need to make more than the AAC, by enough that they can offer teams $5 to 8 million more than they're currently getting in the AAC. They might not be a full P5, but they need to let the AAC be P6 while the B12 is the conference after the P4.. If they're going to survive as a viable brand they need to find enough value to make this happen.

If the B12 can get some combination of Cincy, UCF, USF, BYU, (or maybe Memphis or Houston), they've got a pretty decent league in football and they'll take in a fair number of NCAA tournament credits as well. The key is keeping three or four of the current league roster from bolting before it all comes down.

It could go either way. I guess we start by seeing what the PAC announces end of the week about expansion.

I will be surprised if the pac announces anything beyond “we will continue to monitor the landscape”

There is no reason to say much more than that

I think that's likely, but it's all wait and see.

I hear rumblings about UCF to the Big 12, but so far it's just twitter talk so far as I know.

(08-25-2021 06:07 PM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  

(08-25-2021 04:21 PM)WesternBlazer Wrote:  

(08-25-2021 04:09 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  I remember when C-USA folks thought for sure that C-USA was gonna convince Big East schools to join C-USA.

This will play out like the Big East/ACC. It will be timed to ensure the Big 12 lives and absorbs what it wants, rather than leftover Big 12s having to go where they can land. The lawyers are already following the money.

And that Alliance? It's really a path to transfer some teams around without a bunch of lawsuits.

And maintain some semblance of a P5 or autonomous conference such as it is(or will be).

They need to make more than the AAC, by enough that they can offer teams $5 to 8 million more than they're currently getting in the AAC. They might not be a full P5, but they need to let the AAC be P6 while the B12 is the conference after the P4.. If they're going to survive as a viable brand they need to find enough value to make this happen.

If the B12 can get some combination of Cincy, UCF, USF, BYU, (or maybe Memphis or Houston), they've got a pretty decent league in football and they'll take in a fair number of NCAA tournament credits as well. The key is keeping three or four of the current league roster from bolting before it all comes down.

It could go either way. I guess we start by seeing what the PAC announces end of the week about expansion.

Could make a pretty good BB conference
Kansas
Iowa State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Memphis
Houston
Cincy

Could. But I think Kansas, Iowa State probably will be gone before that configuration ever would play a game. KU's basketball will get them into the Big Ten or SEC eventually. Football won't hurt them - every league needs somebody to finish last.

What's going to happen: Nothing imminently.

What's going to happen over time: A slow migration of entrances and exits, a few moves at a time, between now and 2025.

Why it is going to happen this way: Money and perception.

What isn't going to happen: AAC absorbing any portion of Big 12.

What isn't going to happen: Big 12 retaining "power" status.

Why this is not really important: Big 12 will not legislatively "downgraded." It will remain an "autonomy" conference and will compete for an autobid in the college football playoff just like any other conference. It'll simply be a public perception.

How it will unfold: Big 12 schools will invite key AAC/MWC members, with more added as Big 12 schools trickle into Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC.

Why they will do this in this manner: So they can cash those checks from OU and Texas while also cashing those checks from entrance fees by keeping the Big 12 solvent rather than league-dissolving mass exodus. Those with their eyes on departing would rather leave behind others' money than dig into their own pockets. Those who plan/hope to depart also would prefer to do so from a position of relative security (i.e., they have a home) than desperation (i.e., their league is dead).

Why this is important: Some Big 12 teams won't get lifeboats, and these exit and entrance fees will be their payoff without coming directly out of the pockets of upcoming departing schools.

What we're looking at eventually: A handful of Big 12 remnants, maybe 3-4, adding whatever is needed from a core group of Cincinnati, UCF, USF, Houston, Memphis, Boise State, BYU, SMU, Tulane. This will be done in stages, not one big swoop.

Could UAB become one of those schools?: Well, as of today, probably not. In 2-3 years, possibly. There's a window of time to get into the picture through performance and improved perception. Winning in the major sports, being real noisy about it, filling the stands, continuing to raise money and improve athletics facilities ... all of this matters. At worst, UAB will be a clear choice for whatever the AAC becomes.

What it will mean: Big 12 will eventually not a "power league" in perception but clearly will be the No. 5 league both in performance and finances with a WIDE gap between them and No. 6.

Will this impact other leagues?: Of course. Especially leagues that will be raiding the Big 12. Same process of slow roll is going to happen with them, too, for the same reasons. The lawyers will be paid handsomely to keep things out of the courts. This will be over a longer timetable. In other words, what eventually becomes the Big 12 will again be raided as the Pac, Big Ten, ACC, SEC evolve and leave some teams on an island there.

I find that to be a very persuasive analysis. Well done, sir.

What's gonna happen next: The Big 12 will put its expansion committee into action and they will move to add two teams. This will be the first step of many over a period of years as outlined above. The current Big 12 teams will not stop looking for new homes but they'll collect some entrance fees and get someone's clock started on an exit from the American.

The candidates moving to the front of the line will be Cincinnati, UCF and BYU. Houston would be a great candidate but the Texas Big 12 teams are probably not ready to elevate the recruiting competition during this period of uncertainty.

If the AAC loses two members, they will definitely replace them. Less certain they would do so if they lose just one member, but they also can count entrance fees as income, too.

(08-27-2021 11:33 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  What's gonna happen next: The Big 12 will put its expansion committee into action and they will move to add two teams. This will be the first step of many over a period of years as outlined above. The current Big 12 teams will not stop looking for new homes but they'll collect some entrance fees and get someone's clock started on an exit from the American.

The candidates moving to the front of the line will be Cincinnati, UCF and BYU. Houston would be a great candidate but the Texas Big 12 teams are probably not ready to elevate the recruiting competition during this period of uncertainty.

If the AAC loses two members, they will definitely replace them. Less certain they would do so if they lose just one member, but they also can count entrance fees as income, too.

The AAC without Cinci and UCF would still be a major upgrade for us. Hope we make it.

(08-27-2021 12:00 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 11:33 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  What's gonna happen next: The Big 12 will put its expansion committee into action and they will move to add two teams. This will be the first step of many over a period of years as outlined above. The current Big 12 teams will not stop looking for new homes but they'll collect some entrance fees and get someone's clock started on an exit from the American.

The candidates moving to the front of the line will be Cincinnati, UCF and BYU. Houston would be a great candidate but the Texas Big 12 teams are probably not ready to elevate the recruiting competition during this period of uncertainty.

If the AAC loses two members, they will definitely replace them. Less certain they would do so if they lose just one member, but they also can count entrance fees as income, too.

The AAC without Cinci and UCF would still be a major upgrade for us. Hope we make it.

Even if they lose four we go because if we said no then someone else would say yes. If that happens we end up playing in a weaker CUSA

I think UAB will be in great position and will be first on the list for the American if they need to add.

Big 12 expansion committee is meeting today.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/8/2...is-houston

According to this they're looking at athletic budget/revenue and television numbers.

"The television numbers suggest that the subgroup should look west. Given the grave concern about lost revenue with the departures of Oklahoma and Texas that could potentially cost schools $10 million to $15 million a year in media rights revenue, it might be best to stay small and nimble. And it probably would be best to only add schools that would enter near the top half of the league in budget and TV drawing power. BYU could be a potential solution.

Between 2015 and ‘19, the median audience Big 12 teams (minus games involving Texas and Oklahoma) drew for 36 games broadcast on ABC, Fox or ESPN was 1.786 million viewers. BYU’s numbers were comparable; the Cougars’ median audience in 16 games broadcast on those channels was 1.64 million. For 104 games broadcast on ESPN2, ESPNU, Fox Sports 1 or Fox Sports 2, the remaining Big 12 schools drew a median audience of 482,000. BYU* drew a median audience of 682,000 from 20 broadcasts on those networks."

https://cyclonefanatic.com/2021/08/isus-...committee/

“The people who didn’t want BYU before are leaving the conference,” an unnamed Big 12 source told The Athletic.

I see the Big12 adding BYU and one team from the AAC and stopping at 10. No need to dliute the pie further with teams that aren't bringing in much (if any) additional money. If the AAC only loses one, I could see them standing pat at 10 for the same reason.

(08-27-2021 12:41 PM)hooverblazer Wrote:  I see the Big12 adding BYU and one team from the AAC and stopping at 10. No need to dliute the pie further with teams that aren't bringing in much (if any) additional money. If the AAC only loses one, I could see them standing pat at 10 for the same reason.

Possibly. At least initially. But TV may tell them they need the markets of Orlando, Cincinnati, Houston and/or Dallas.

(08-27-2021 12:41 PM)hooverblazer Wrote:  I see the Big12 adding BYU and one team from the AAC and stopping at 10. No need to dliute the pie further with teams that aren't bringing in much (if any) additional money. If the AAC only loses one, I could see them standing pat at 10 for the same reason.

Bowlsby could really make Aresco pay for his transgressions with tampering with the Big 12 left behinds. That being said, BYU will definitely be the first add, they could even do a football only invite and leave their others sport where they're currently located.

After that the next four programs considered would probably be Houston, Cincy, UCF, and Boise. If WVU has any say so I would lean Cincy. If not, Houston should be the invitee but will the three Texas schools be onboard? There was a story from someone from The Athletic that hinted the PAC 12 would look very strongly at the Cougars.

In either case, the Big 12 has to look at inviting the strongest G5/Indy brands to help obtain some type of decent TV deal in 2025.

BYU is definitely the easiest move, especially because you could go football only even and not disrupt much or have to deal with some of the other issues that come with BYU such as non-revenue travel, Sunday competition, etc.). It's clean 9 teams in football, round-robin schedule for 8 conference games.

(08-27-2021 12:53 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  

(08-27-2021 12:41 PM)hooverblazer Wrote:  I see the Big12 adding BYU and one team from the AAC and stopping at 10. No need to dliute the pie further with teams that aren't bringing in much (if any) additional money. If the AAC only loses one, I could see them standing pat at 10 for the same reason.

Possibly. At least initially. But TV may tell them they need the markets of Orlando, Cincinnati, Houston and/or Dallas.

The Big 12 would almost have to take Cincy if they want to keep WVU. WVU is nowhere near the rest of the conference and a Cincy add would give them a geographic rival and travel partner. Of course, with that in mind the same could be said of BYU (and Boise St?).

Two more adds could be Houston and SMU to get Texas teams and the old gang back together again...