(08-11-2021 08:05 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote: Take a bunch of teams that can't get a second bid now.
Put them all together.
??????????
Second bid!
Yes. That's 100% correct. The reason C-USA can't get a second bid is because so many of the teams in C-USA aren't posting good overall records, so the SOS of conference games is really low, so 2nd place is finishing in the 80s.
Let me break it down for you... Last 10 years, basketball win percentage (current members, yes the league hasn't been together for 10 years yet)
CUSA: .529 (1 bid per year)
MAC: .530 (1 bid per year)
MVC: .542 (1.8 bids per year)
A10: .547 (2.75 bids per year)
AAC: .569 (3 bids per year)
On average, you're playing 31 games a season. 19 conference games.
Those 19 conference games are worth .529 on your SOS 19 times.
If the exact same conference is playing .579 basketball, their SOS in is worth more 19 times, and therefore all their computer numbers (NET/RPI) go up.
Marshall, ODU, WKU, MTSU, UAB, Charlotte, and La Tech play .576 basketball. Throw in Buffalo and Liberty and you're at .581.
So yeah, second place in THAT New Conference is going to be in the mix for an NCAA bid.
**I'm not a fan of any C-USA team, I'm not talking smack on anyone in the league, I'm just going raw data. There's a strategic/geography element of those 7. You need to take only 7 and NOT the "clearly best 7" so you don't get sued.