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From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
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JRsec Offline
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From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
Let us make two proposals here. Your 4 to 20. Your 8 to 24. Emphasis is on 20. Here are mine (B1G excluded, PAC excluded).

1. Notre Dame:
#6 Revenue: $165,660,298
Attendance: 76,288
WSJ Valuation: $913,401,562

My reasoning: Best remaining prospect in the nation and historic program.

2. Florida State:
#10 Revenue: $155,658,855
Attendance: 54,019
WSJ Valuation: $289,776,745

My reasoning: Next best prospect in the nation and gives SEC ad leverage in FL.

3. Clemson
#26 Revenue: $122,263,031
Attendance: 80,868
WSJ Valuation: $298,051,865

My reasoning: Solid fan support when losing & hottest school in nation outside SEC

4. North Carolina
#34 Revenue: $107,842,595
Attendance: 50,500
WSJ Valuation: $155,246,919

My reasoning: Blue blood hoops & avg football, academics and WSJ value with BB & large new market.

5. Virginia Tech
#45 Revenue: $98,885,805
Attendance: 58,293
WSJ Valuation: $278,315,358

My reasoning: Competitive in all sports. Best draw in large new market.

6. Louisville
#15 Revenue: $140,867,112
Attendance: 49,913
WSJ Valuation: $175,765,264

My reasoning: Competitive in all sports. Blue blood hoops. Solid numbers.

7. Kansas
#33 Revenue: $108,107,369
Attendance: 33,875
WSJ Valuation: $208,020,519

My reasoning: Historic BB, Academics, New Market, WSJ Value in BB doubles total value

8. Miami:
#28 Revenue: $115,360,535
Attendance: 52,829
WSJ Valuation: $193,474,341

My reasoning: Best remaining overall numbers. No school in S. FL. Everyone wants to schedule a FL school.

Overall my thoughts are go to 20 with Notre Dame and FSU to 18 and UNC and Virginia Tech to 20. It doesn't really add after that unless the network covers it.

These picks don't take into consideration what ESPN might want, which schools could head to the Big 10 in order to close out the ACC, etc.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2021 10:22 PM by JRsec.)
07-31-2021 10:19 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
4 to 20:
FSU, Clemson, VT, UNC as you mentioned.

but I'd take to go to 24:
Miami and Kansas as above

NC State - revenue 56
Attendance: 56,466 (higher than FSU, UNC, Louisville, Kansas and Miami)
WSJ: 179,255,274 (higher than Louisville, North Carolina)

14 bowls since 2001, 10 NCAA appearances and 3 Sweet Sixteens, 16 College Baseball Tournament Appearances

Iowa State:
revenue: 64 (ouch!)
attendance: 59,794 (3rd in Big 12, would be 2nd in ACC, 9th in SEC)
valuation: 187... (43rd)
TV ranking: 43rd (viewers in ranked games)


Other factors: AAU, fan base travels

Left out that I would consider: Georgia Tech, Virginia
08-01-2021 03:22 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
I think we all have to question the efficacy of GORs at this point, but there is a contract stipulation for Notre Dame that I think has more weight. If their football program joins a conference within a few years(not sure what the timeline is) then they have to join the ACC.

To me, in order to avoid legal entanglements, you have to eliminate the ACC.

That's why Florida State and Clemson have to be #1 and #2. The ACC has to be weakened to the degree that their future is questionable.

Does ESPN want that? They might.

Notre Dame is the key remaining prize. The Big Ten won't give ESPN any more of ND than they already have if that much. The PAC 12 likely does the same and travel would be a significant issue if that became ND's home anyway.

If ESPN is to get the entirety of the Notre Dame schedule then it will have to be in the SEC. The reason is because they will never have a reason to join the ACC in full as long as that league is viable. It will never be a situation where the ACC is strong enough to force ND's hand. The Big 12 is no longer an option...

Dismantle the ACC and you can own Notre Dame in totality.
08-01-2021 11:16 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-01-2021 11:16 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I think we all have to question the efficacy of GORs at this point, but there is a contract stipulation for Notre Dame that I think has more weight. If their football program joins a conference within a few years(not sure what the timeline is) then they have to join the ACC.

To me, in order to avoid legal entanglements, you have to eliminate the ACC.

That's why Florida State and Clemson have to be #1 and #2. The ACC has to be weakened to the degree that their future is questionable.

Does ESPN want that? They might.

Notre Dame is the key remaining prize. The Big Ten won't give ESPN any more of ND than they already have if that much. The PAC 12 likely does the same and travel would be a significant issue if that became ND's home anyway.

If ESPN is to get the entirety of the Notre Dame schedule then it will have to be in the SEC. The reason is because they will never have a reason to join the ACC in full as long as that league is viable. It will never be a situation where the ACC is strong enough to force ND's hand. The Big 12 is no longer an option...

Dismantle the ACC and you can own Notre Dame in totality.

That would work but a more definitive move would be North Carolina and Florida State. You take the largest revenue school and the head of the old guard. That sends the signal that it's over. Then N.D. and Va Tech and if Vandy is out or becomes a partial then Clemson.

ND and FSU are the money. UNC and VaTech are 20 million more in 2 new states. Clemson is great but right now the other 4 add more. Lot's of moves to happen yet and likely another slot comes open.
08-01-2021 11:30 PM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-01-2021 11:16 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I think we all have to question the efficacy of GORs at this point, but there is a contract stipulation for Notre Dame that I think has more weight. If their football program joins a conference within a few years(not sure what the timeline is) then they have to join the ACC.

To me, in order to avoid legal entanglements, you have to eliminate the ACC.

That's why Florida State and Clemson have to be #1 and #2. The ACC has to be weakened to the degree that their future is questionable.

Does ESPN want that? They might.

Notre Dame is the key remaining prize. The Big Ten won't give ESPN any more of ND than they already have if that much. The PAC 12 likely does the same and travel would be a significant issue if that became ND's home anyway.

If ESPN is to get the entirety of the Notre Dame schedule then it will have to be in the SEC. The reason is because they will never have a reason to join the ACC in full as long as that league is viable. It will never be a situation where the ACC is strong enough to force ND's hand. The Big 12 is no longer an option...

Dismantle the ACC and you can own Notre Dame in totality.

All ND/ACC contracts, including the GOR, 5 football game deal and the contract that says that if ND football joins a conference, it must be the ACC, run through 2036.

Besides those contracts, ND is a full voting member of the ACC, plays 24 sports there (except football and hockey) and gets a full share of the ACC Network profits.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2021 07:54 AM by TerryD.)
08-02-2021 07:49 AM
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OdinFrigg Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
External factors, i.e. the future playoff criteria, the development power mega-conferences, financial incentives, some unforeseen ACC upheaval, pay-the-players developments, etc., could force Notre Dame's hand. That said, due to ND's contractual agreement with the ACC, any full-time conference football would be with the ACC for the duration of the current GoR. Leaving the ACC for another conference involving fb during the current time-frame would cost ND a huge amount of money school officials will not want to pay.
FT ND fb plus Navy could be a part, but only a part, of the catalyst. The bet though, is ND's current arrangement doesn't change anytime soon.
08-03-2021 03:18 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-03-2021 03:18 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  External factors, i.e. the future playoff criteria, the development power mega-conferences, financial incentives, some unforeseen ACC upheaval, pay-the-players developments, etc., could force Notre Dame's hand. That said, due to ND's contractual agreement with the ACC, any full-time conference football would be with the ACC for the duration of the current GoR. Leaving the ACC for another conference involving fb during the current time-frame would cost ND a huge amount of money school officials will not want to pay.
FT ND fb plus Navy could be a part, but only a part, of the catalyst. The bet though, is ND's current arrangement doesn't change anytime soon.
Actually their football is not under the GOR. They are still under a signed obligation not to join elsewhere but a notice and exit fee would cover that for football. Everything else would remain for the GOR. ND football is still independent.
08-03-2021 03:25 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
Has to be FSU and Clemson. Clemson is just solid in every way, and FSU is a marquee school. They are down but will be back. Attendance may be down right now, but will easily outdraw the Tar Heels with any kind of decent team. Capacity is 79,560, which was almost always packed until just recently. Notre Dame is not coming, IMHO, but if they did, the "they're not Southern enough for the SEC" thing would go away. lol
08-03-2021 06:34 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-03-2021 06:34 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Has to be FSU and Clemson. Clemson is just solid in every way, and FSU is a marquee school. They are down but will be back. Attendance may be down right now, but will easily outdraw the Tar Heels with any kind of decent team. Capacity is 79,560, which was almost always packed until just recently. Notre Dame is not coming, IMHO, but if they did, the "they're not Southern enough for the SEC" thing would go away. lol

Why didn't you know? We're the Bible belt! And green is Notre Dame and the SEC's favorite color!
08-03-2021 06:50 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
It would seem the ACC powers, to some degree, were caught off guard by Oklahoma and Texas moving.

We've got the President of FSU saying they need to evaluate their options while also saying other leagues might be interested. Only then he turns around and says there's been no contact with the SEC. Of course, there's various ways to make contact without really making contact and I would have thought Florida State and Clemson would have kept an open channel anyway.

Point being, I don't know that any further realignment for the SEC is imminent. People talk about the ACC GOR, but I think ESPN wanted a long term deal because it creates leverage. They essentially can do with the ACC what they want because they not only own the contract, but they own it for a very long period of time.

With that said, the caveat to that degree of leverage is they still need certain parties to be willing.

A situation has now been created that could provide just the right push out the door for certain parties.
08-03-2021 09:10 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
What is WVU and USCw numbers?

I ask because WVU is most likely to bolt Big 12 while the Trojans might give the SEZc a call if the Big Ten don’t find a combination of PAC schools that can workout for all parties.
08-04-2021 10:15 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-04-2021 10:15 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  What is WVU and USCw numbers?

I ask because WVU is most likely to bolt Big 12 while the Trojans might give the SEZc a call if the Big Ten don’t find a combination of PAC schools that can workout for all parties.

Southern Cal:
#23 Revenue: $127,801,581 (9th in the SEC)
Attendance: 59,358 (which would be 9th in the SEC)
WSJ Valuation: $326,021,581 (which is 23rd nationally)


West Virginia:
#50 Revenue: $92,884,748 (Ahead of only Vanderbilt in the SEC)
Attendance: 55,907 (which would be 10th in the SEC)
WSJ Valuation: $61,134,888 (which would be 68th nationally and behind 3 G5 schools)
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2021 12:47 AM by JRsec.)
08-05-2021 12:45 AM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-03-2021 06:34 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Has to be FSU and Clemson. Clemson is just solid in every way, and FSU is a marquee school. They are down but will be back. Attendance may be down right now, but will easily outdraw the Tar Heels with any kind of decent team. Capacity is 79,560, which was almost always packed until just recently. Notre Dame is not coming, IMHO, but if they did, the "they're not Southern enough for the SEC" thing would go away. lol

Absolutely. You get Clemson and FSU and you become the P1 and everyone else is the G9.
08-07-2021 03:29 PM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
I think JR's top 4 is solid.

VT, Duke, Miami, and WVU would be my next four, but I am not particularly high on any of them.
08-09-2021 02:32 PM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(07-31-2021 10:19 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Let us make two proposals here. Your 4 to 20. Your 8 to 24. Emphasis is on 20. Here are mine (B1G excluded, PAC excluded).

1. Notre Dame:
#6 Revenue: $165,660,298
Attendance: 76,288
WSJ Valuation: $913,401,562

My reasoning: Best remaining prospect in the nation and historic program.

2. Florida State:
#10 Revenue: $155,658,855
Attendance: 54,019
WSJ Valuation: $289,776,745

My reasoning: Next best prospect in the nation and gives SEC ad leverage in FL.

3. Clemson
#26 Revenue: $122,263,031
Attendance: 80,868
WSJ Valuation: $298,051,865

My reasoning: Solid fan support when losing & hottest school in nation outside SEC

4. North Carolina
#34 Revenue: $107,842,595
Attendance: 50,500
WSJ Valuation: $155,246,919

My reasoning: Blue blood hoops & avg football, academics and WSJ value with BB & large new market.

5. Virginia Tech
#45 Revenue: $98,885,805
Attendance: 58,293
WSJ Valuation: $278,315,358

My reasoning: Competitive in all sports. Best draw in large new market.

6. Louisville
#15 Revenue: $140,867,112
Attendance: 49,913
WSJ Valuation: $175,765,264

My reasoning: Competitive in all sports. Blue blood hoops. Solid numbers.

7. Kansas
#33 Revenue: $108,107,369
Attendance: 33,875
WSJ Valuation: $208,020,519

My reasoning: Historic BB, Academics, New Market, WSJ Value in BB doubles total value

8. Miami:
#28 Revenue: $115,360,535
Attendance: 52,829
WSJ Valuation: $193,474,341

My reasoning: Best remaining overall numbers. No school in S. FL. Everyone wants to schedule a FL school.

Overall my thoughts are go to 20 with Notre Dame and FSU to 18 and UNC and Virginia Tech to 20. It doesn't really add after that unless the network covers it.

These picks don't take into consideration what ESPN might want, which schools could head to the Big 10 in order to close out the ACC, etc.

On #1, E$PN would go bankrupt trying to make that happen. E$PN would be wiser to pursue the NFL's NFC or AFC television rights before ND ever joining the SEC!!!
08-14-2021 05:04 AM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
SEC (32) : takes out the L8 and ACC

IA St - MO
KS - KS St
OK - Ok St
TX - TCU

aTm - Baylor
LSU - AR
Ole Miss - MS St
AL - Aub
————————-
Mia - FSU
FL - GA
SC - Clem
TN - Vandy

NC - Duke
VA - VA Tech
KY - Louisville
WV - Pitt
08-17-2021 09:40 PM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-03-2021 03:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 03:18 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  External factors, i.e. the future playoff criteria, the development power mega-conferences, financial incentives, some unforeseen ACC upheaval, pay-the-players developments, etc., could force Notre Dame's hand. That said, due to ND's contractual agreement with the ACC, any full-time conference football would be with the ACC for the duration of the current GoR. Leaving the ACC for another conference involving fb during the current time-frame would cost ND a huge amount of money school officials will not want to pay.
FT ND fb plus Navy could be a part, but only a part, of the catalyst. The bet though, is ND's current arrangement doesn't change anytime soon.
Actually their football is not under the GOR. They are still under a signed obligation not to join elsewhere but a notice and exit fee would cover that for football. Everything else would remain for the GOR. ND football is still independent.

The 5 (average) yearly ND fb games in the ACC is a contract that can be broken with a notice and exit fee but ND retains full right and privileges for all other sports played in the ACC? The ACC would have no "just cause" to drop ND as a conference member for negating to play the agreed upon average of 5 fb games each season?

TerryD wrote:

"All ND/ACC contracts, including the GOR, 5 football game deal and the contract that says that if ND football joins a conference, it must be the ACC, run through 2036.

Besides those contracts, ND is a full voting member of the ACC, plays 24 sports there (except football and hockey) and gets a full share of the ACC Network profits."

Full share network profits or is that a proportional share based on the 5 fb games plus full participation in the 24 other sports?

If ND left the ACC in totality before the GoR expires, and joins the BIG or the SEC, the ACC could only collect on the media rights for the duration of the GoR for non-fb sports excluding hockey?

Beyond basketball, the amount for ND to relinquish is minor within the greater scope of financial assessment. ND wouldn't want to leave ACC bb at all.

It wasn't fb that drove ND to the ACC. It was basketball and the assurance of having P5 fb games for scheduling during the late season and greater access to southeast recruiting.

While the BIG or the SEC could offer ND a higher distribution in conference revenue, the ACC has given ND the terms and conditions ND exactly wanted. The ACC has "hope" for adding full-time ND fb. ND holds the tangibles.
Cleverness at negotiating has long been a ND strength. The ACC, not so much.
08-22-2021 01:41 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-22-2021 01:41 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 03:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 03:18 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  External factors, i.e. the future playoff criteria, the development power mega-conferences, financial incentives, some unforeseen ACC upheaval, pay-the-players developments, etc., could force Notre Dame's hand. That said, due to ND's contractual agreement with the ACC, any full-time conference football would be with the ACC for the duration of the current GoR. Leaving the ACC for another conference involving fb during the current time-frame would cost ND a huge amount of money school officials will not want to pay.
FT ND fb plus Navy could be a part, but only a part, of the catalyst. The bet though, is ND's current arrangement doesn't change anytime soon.
Actually their football is not under the GOR. They are still under a signed obligation not to join elsewhere but a notice and exit fee would cover that for football. Everything else would remain for the GOR. ND football is still independent.

The 5 (average) yearly ND fb games in the ACC is a contract that can be broken with a notice and exit fee but ND retains full right and privileges for all other sports played in the ACC? The ACC would have no "just cause" to drop ND as a conference member for negating to play the agreed upon average of 5 fb games each season?

TerryD wrote:

"All ND/ACC contracts, including the GOR, 5 football game deal and the contract that says that if ND football joins a conference, it must be the ACC, run through 2036.

Besides those contracts, ND is a full voting member of the ACC, plays 24 sports there (except football and hockey) and gets a full share of the ACC Network profits."

Full share network profits or is that a proportional share based on the 5 fb games plus full participation in the 24 other sports?

If ND left the ACC in totality before the GoR expires, and joins the BIG or the SEC, the ACC could only collect on the media rights for the duration of the GoR for non-fb sports excluding hockey?

Beyond basketball, the amount for ND to relinquish is minor within the greater scope of financial assessment. ND wouldn't want to leave ACC bb at all.

It wasn't fb that drove ND to the ACC. It was basketball and the assurance of having P5 fb games for scheduling during the late season and greater access to southeast recruiting.

While the BIG or the SEC could offer ND a higher distribution in conference revenue, the ACC has given ND the terms and conditions ND exactly wanted. The ACC has "hope" for adding full-time ND fb. ND holds the tangibles.
Cleverness at negotiating has long been a ND strength. The ACC, not so much.

A full share of network profits, yes. Indiana then provides the ACC with top rate for subs. Football doesn't matter in this.

ND owes the ACC 2 football games on one year and 3 the next as the ACC only really owns ND's away games, and none of their home games. So if ND left they would owe the ACC 2 away games one year and 3 the next. All other sports including ND hoops has little impact upon valuations.

Terry D also said if forced into full membership that ND would choose the conference that paid the most. The SEC also offers games in Florida and Georgia plus Texas.
08-22-2021 03:35 PM
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RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
(08-22-2021 01:41 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 03:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-03-2021 03:18 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  External factors, i.e. the future playoff criteria, the development power mega-conferences, financial incentives, some unforeseen ACC upheaval, pay-the-players developments, etc., could force Notre Dame's hand. That said, due to ND's contractual agreement with the ACC, any full-time conference football would be with the ACC for the duration of the current GoR. Leaving the ACC for another conference involving fb during the current time-frame would cost ND a huge amount of money school officials will not want to pay.
FT ND fb plus Navy could be a part, but only a part, of the catalyst. The bet though, is ND's current arrangement doesn't change anytime soon.
Actually their football is not under the GOR. They are still under a signed obligation not to join elsewhere but a notice and exit fee would cover that for football. Everything else would remain for the GOR. ND football is still independent.

The 5 (average) yearly ND fb games in the ACC is a contract that can be broken with a notice and exit fee but ND retains full right and privileges for all other sports played in the ACC? The ACC would have no "just cause" to drop ND as a conference member for negating to play the agreed upon average of 5 fb games each season?

TerryD wrote:

"All ND/ACC contracts, including the GOR, 5 football game deal and the contract that says that if ND football joins a conference, it must be the ACC, run through 2036.

Besides those contracts, ND is a full voting member of the ACC, plays 24 sports there (except football and hockey) and gets a full share of the ACC Network profits."

Full share network profits or is that a proportional share based on the 5 fb games plus full participation in the 24 other sports?

If ND left the ACC in totality before the GoR expires, and joins the BIG or the SEC, the ACC could only collect on the media rights for the duration of the GoR for non-fb sports excluding hockey?

Beyond basketball, the amount for ND to relinquish is minor within the greater scope of financial assessment. ND wouldn't want to leave ACC bb at all.

It wasn't fb that drove ND to the ACC. It was basketball and the assurance of having P5 fb games for scheduling during the late season and greater access to southeast recruiting.

While the BIG or the SEC could offer ND a higher distribution in conference revenue, the ACC has given ND the terms and conditions ND exactly wanted. The ACC has "hope" for adding full-time ND fb. ND holds the tangibles.
Cleverness at negotiating has long been a ND strength. The ACC, not so much.

Its a full equal share of ACC Network profits for ND, the same as Clemson, FSU, North Carolina and all the rest.

John Swofford admitted several times in public statements that without ND involved, there would be no ACC Network.

That is the reason that ND gets a full share.

Plus, they use ND to market the Network. ND's game this season versus Virginia Tech, for instance, was moved to the Network.
08-23-2021 05:27 AM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #20
RE: From Purely a Business Perspective Who Might Be the SEC's New Prospects?:
Speaking of network profits, the cable model continues to weaken. The channels not on the chopping block for the moment include the ones that have large viewership numbers...or at the very least they're cheap so they don't add much to the cable bill.

Part of the reason for the switch to these streaming services is the ability to consolidate content in one place. You download the ESPN app and you get everything on ESPN+ and if you have a cable sub then you get all the live content from their linear channels.

It's much the same with every platform. Every company has a streaming service just about so the practical need for cable is becoming less. It's just easier to put everything under one umbrella given the technology.

The market penetration is not quite the same and I'm sure viewership numbers lag that of cable as well, but in the not too distant future the ability of the SEC Network or the ACC Network to provide genuine value unto themselves will be nil.

At that point, does a company like ESPN start supplementing what would have been conference network profits? Or do they simply share a slice of streaming profits even though lots of leagues will be splitting that?

How does that affect the calculus on which leagues are inherently worth more?

I have to say there's an SEC advantage there.
08-23-2021 07:49 AM
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