(07-24-2021 10:34 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: (07-24-2021 10:17 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote: (07-24-2021 10:01 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: (07-24-2021 08:44 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote: (07-23-2021 03:23 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote: ...the Big12 would cease to be a power conference...
That is possible, but by no means a sure thing, and the Big 12 will not lose its NCAA "A5" (autonomous conference) status, NCAA tournament credits, its current bowl affiliations, or its broadcasting agreement through 2025. It may also receive a large ($150 to $200 million) windfall due in exit fees.
The most likely scenario is that a core group of 4 or 5 Big 12 schools (e.g., TT, TCU, KSU, OSU, ISU, possibly Baylor, KU, & WVU) will remain, and will "backfill" to maintain 10-12 members through the addition of former power conference schools (eg., Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, USF), former BCS conference schools (Memphis, UCF (in 2013)), and power independents (BYU).
The recruiting of the new members would improve quickly, and they (Houston & Memphis basketball; Cincinnati, BYU, & UCF football) would probably be highly competitive with their conference mates 3-4 years after joining the Big 12.
If the Big 12 doesn't implode, the reconfigured it could, justifiably, continue to be considered a power conference by many with schools that have been members of power or BCS conferences in recent (or at least living) memory, such as:
Baylor
WVU
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
TCU
Houston (SWC (1976-1995); BCS conference member in 2013)
Cincinnati (Big East (2005-2012; BCS conference member in 2013)
That is a basketball power conference. Not a football power conference. A Big12 in that configuration would be the new "tweener" conference. Not a power conference, but not a G5 conference. The AAC would take a solid step back. Plus, TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech would never let Houston in to the party. That spot would go to UCF.
It might be a more powerful basketball than football conference, but - - hypothetically speaking, if all 8 remaining Big 12 schools were to stay put (albeit a "big if"), it would be about as powerful in football as the PAC 12 has been in the past few years.
To say that the 8 teams (plus 2 or 4 quality imports) wouldn't be a power conference may be tantamount to implying that the PAC-12 isn't really a "power conference" - - that it may be an "A5" and a "P5," but that's different from what some define as a "true" power conference.
That's more of a hypothesis than a rock-solid assertion, and I wonder what others think about this point.
It isn't about how the remaining Big12 members compare to the PAC. It is about how the gap between the P3 (SEC, BIG10, & ACC) will have widened from the PAC and Big12. That is why the Big12 will no longer be a power conference. Of course the PAC can expand and make it a P4, but it would have to take members from the remaining Big12 to do it. The PAC is snooty, and there are not a lot of options that fit their model. In either of the likely scenarios, the Big12 is done as a power conference.
By the way, that is the UNT sideline in my gif. It feature the North Texas Battle Flag in the distance. But Marshall will be playing there this season.
.
True - there are a lot of people who are predicting the demise of the Big 12, with the 8 remaining schools being scattered to the four winds (B1G, ACC, SEC, and PAC), and there's no doubt that it could happen that way, especially if the powers that be (esp. ESPN/Disney) "will" it to happen.
However, I'm an admirer of one of the CSNBBS moderators named "AttackCoog," and here is his theory:
He thinks that at least 4 or 5 of the 8 remaining Big 12 schools (such as, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU) probably won't get an invitation to join another P5 conference.
Reasons:
1. The Big 10 is unlikely to add any non-AAU school. KU and ISU are the only AAU schools among the 8 remaining. The Big 10 might add one of them, but they wouldn't gain much by adding those two schools. They would prefer to add Notre Dame and one of the various AAU schools (possibly Missouri or Colorado), rather than ISU (low population, small market State).
2. The ACC already has 15 members, including Notre Dame, and has shown no interest in adding WVU (the east coast version of "snooty"). They could add KU, but they're already over-loaded with quality BB schools and need much more to add a strong FB school. They might consider adding a team such as Baylor, but they might not be willing to add 2 Big 12 schools, especially if they're hoping to bring Notre Dame into the fold for FB.
3. The PAC-12 has issued a fairly lukewarm statement indicating that they're "open" to any Big 12 school that wishes to contact them, but that they're not inclined to make the first move in initiating discussions. A big part of the problem is that the PAC is very much a California-centric, academically-minded conference, and none of the Big 12 schools matches their profile very closely. Travel distances to the Houston and Dallas areas would be considerable, not to mention to Kansas, OK, and Iowa.
4. That leaves the SEC. Would they consider adding 4, 5, or 6 more schools from the Big 12? They might, but it seems unlikely, at least in the near future, because they're already going to encounter enough resistance trying to persuade their membership to approve UT and OU. There's even some talk about schools such as Missouri and TAMU considering leaving the SEC over this kerfuffel.
.
AttackCoug's point is that a lot of people in the Big 12 have gone into panic mode, but they will soon discover that the sky is not falling, and that most of them will simply have to rebuild their conference, as they have done a few times before.
They may find it difficult to replace Oklahoma, in terms of FB/BB prowess, but frankly, UT hasn't been a FB powerhouse year-in/year-out for well over a decade. It's really only Oklahoma that the Big 12 will find it difficult to replace. However, Cincinnati has demonstrated the potential to be highly competitive with Oklahoma in basketball, and to an increasing extent, in football.
The loss of Texas could turn out to be an example of "addition by subtraction" - - not in terms of their massive viewership or economic power - - but in terms of their relative FB/BB mediocrity.
It might be considered heretical to suggest that the Big 12 could turn out to be better off without UT and OK, but if they were to add 4 of these 5 schools (Cincy, Memphis, BYU, and Houston or UCF), it's possible that they might at least "break even" in terms of metrics such as # of top 25 teams.
.
/
Who Goes Where, and What Will Be Left in the Big12?
