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(07-23-2021 12:58 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:52 PM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:44 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  I think a number of schools in the P5 are about to experience what it feels like to be Left Behind.

OU and Texas to the SEC makes the same move for Clemson and FSU inevitable IMO. That will completely upend the values of the Big 12 and ACC media deals. I imagine the scramble for higher ground has already begun and the conference offices at the SEC and Big 10 are ringing off the hook.

I think the SEC takes OU, Texas, Clemson, and FSU. North Carolina is a possibility. Not sure who could be next.

I think the Big 10 takes Notre Dame, Kansas, Virginia, and probably North Carolina (better institutional fit).

Not sure how the PAC fits in but they are the weak sister of the P5. Only USC, Oregon, and Washington really rate as elite football programs. Be some travel costs, but I could see their football programs aligning with the Big 10. Lot of history there.

Notre Dame WILL NEVER FORGET and WILL NEVER JOIN the BIG10

$ talks, even for the pervs in the Catholic church. If the cool kids are forming their own club then the Irish will want to be there, history be damned to a hell of no choir boys.

I read that Notre Dame’s contract with the ACC states that they can’t join any other conference except the ACC until the year 2035.

If Notre Dame joins a conference, it will be the ACC (assuming there *is* an ACC). And as long as there's a path to an expanded playoff for them without a conference, they'll stay independent. Considering ND was on the committee that set up the proposed 12-team format, I think they're happy as it currently projects. They know they won't be getting a bye, but are happy to trade that for the high probability of making the 12 team field most years and hosting in round 1.

No one is mentioning Baylor in this. Men’s hoops champions perennial women’s hoops contenders, football has recovered from Briles and deep deep pockets of the Baptist version of Norte Dame

UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

The SEC is consolidating within its greater footprint. The schools of football significance within that area will eventually be brought into that league. Why compete when you can absorb your competition? The SEC is the Google/Amazon of college football.

I don't see an ACC without Clemson and FSU as all that much stronger than the Big 12 without OU and Texas. Without those two powers, the better schools left will scramble just like OK State, Kansas, etc are doing right now.

I think OU/Texas>>SEC could be a big tipping point.

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

Not sure I would phrase it like that, but you're right. LOL

Put on the tube tops fellas, it's time to hit the streets!

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

UAB's options are pretty clear.
1) Best case: Slide in as the last or next-to-last invite into a refilled Big 12 that includes a mix of Big 12/AAC/MWC programs. The more the Big 12 is raided, but not completely devoured, the better the odds for this. Still a long shot at best.
2) Next-best-case. Invited to the AAC with most of the membership still in-tact. Sure, a few of the top teams would be gone, but if it's not more than a couple of teams, the American is still a clear improvement.
3) Next-next-best case: Go to a weakened AAC that still is a step up from current position.
4) Worst case: Stay in C-USA but positioned as arguably the strongest overall program with new facilities, strong coaches and commitment to success. Regardless of all else, if this is the future, it's still a heck of a lot better than what it could have been.

There's a fifth option out there, which I could see happening: A new best-of-the-rest conference is formed from those not included in the Big 12/AAC mix. I definitely could see some schools supporting this.

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

They would have to leave. You can’t have two lame duck programs for a 4 year period, it would be terrible for all parties involved.

(07-23-2021 01:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

They would have to leave. You can’t have two lame duck programs for a 4 year period, it would be terrible for all parties involved.

It would be terrible but they technically don't have to leave. OU and Texas actually proposed the requirement of having to provide an 18 month notice to the conference of their intentions to leave.

Now of course I don't expect them to stay four years but they absolutely do not have to leave before the tv contract expires.

(07-23-2021 01:51 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

They would have to leave. You can’t have two lame duck programs for a 4 year period, it would be terrible for all parties involved.

It would be terrible but they technically don't have to leave. OU and Texas actually proposed the requirement of having to provide an 18 month notice to the conference of their intentions to leave.

Now of course I don't expect them to stay four years but they absolutely do not have to leave before the tv contract expires.

And if the rest of Big 12 hasn't found landing spots, they would be smart to hold onto OU and Texas as long as possible. Regardless of the TV money, they take a hit in prestige and home gates as soon as OU and Texas aren't on their schedules. That association is worth millions in and of itself.

(07-23-2021 01:57 PM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:51 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:39 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:26 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  UAB has to be hoping that the Big 12 isn't completely gutted by the other power conferences. OU and Texas will owe the Big 12 $76 million a piece to exit the conference. Chip Brown first reported that OU and Texas would wait until the current Big 12 TV contract expired before leaving. Now he is reporting that they could be leaving after this season.

A 152 million is a lot to leave on the table and this would be one reason why the AAC will not be able to get the remaining Big 12 teams to join their conference. Maybe a couple of Big 12 schools decide to stay to collect that money and invite schools from the G5 to join. And if that is the case UAB had better be prostituting itself to those Big 12 schools to get into that conference. Otherwise, UAB could find its only options are a watered down AAC or staying in CUSA.

They would have to leave. You can’t have two lame duck programs for a 4 year period, it would be terrible for all parties involved.

It would be terrible but they technically don't have to leave. OU and Texas actually proposed the requirement of having to provide an 18 month notice to the conference of their intentions to leave.

Now of course I don't expect them to stay four years but they absolutely do not have to leave before the tv contract expires.

And if the rest of Big 12 hasn't found landing spots, they would be smart to hold onto OU and Texas as long as possible. Regardless of the TV money, they take a hit in prestige and home gates as soon as OU and Texas aren't on their schedules. That association is worth millions in and of itself.

Yup!

The rumors are all over the place now. Panic is setting in. But also guessing that OU and Texas aren't the only ones who have been talking in back rooms.

There are a few factors that make this realignment feel a bit different than past waves. Yes, there have always been politics and backstabbings and self-interest and other such things, but here are some marked changes:

1) There has been a stunning lack of leadership at NCAA HQ on almost every challenge.
2) COVID budget challenges
3) Two struggling conference networks (ACC and Pac-12) vs. two that are rolling in money (SEC, B1G)
4) Widening revenue gaps between power conferences.
5) National economic trends leading toward consolidation and acquisition
6) Major leadership changes at the conference level, with new commissioners in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12
7) Concentration of talent into a handful of programs with major programs and entire regions non-competitive.
8) Playoff change
9) Media disruption
10) Need for premium inventory

There are others. If this truly goes down, I do not see any current non-p5 getting into the club. It's more likely current p5s will lose their dance card. College sports have come to the precipice before but cooler heads always prevailed. The frustrations and changes in leadership make that less likely this time I think. I definitely do not think we will get "4 superconferences." We'll either get 2 or 3 that consolidate and break away, or we'll get two or three dominants with a structure more like status quo, only that the revenue will stack up among 30-40 or so schools, not 65.

What I have NOT heard is why the power teams of the SEC (Bama, LSU, FL, UGA) would WANT to add Texas and OK to their "have to play regularly" schedules. I believe the SEC already has added the two BIG 12 programs they wanted in TX A&M and MO - two midrange power programs that don't threaten their status quo domination.

If Texas and OK do decide to leave the BIG 12, they are most likely to move to a conference where they will be the BIG DOGS, not just be part of the top half dozen. Where they are now fits that definition. .

(07-23-2021 09:31 PM)BAMANBLAZERFAN Wrote:  What I have NOT heard is why the power teams of the SEC (Bama, LSU, FL, UGA) would WANT to add Texas and OK to their "have to play regularly" schedules. I believe the SEC already has added the two BIG 12 programs they wanted in TX A&M and MO - two midrange power programs that don't threaten their status quo domination.

If Texas and OK do decide to leave the BIG 12, they are most likely to move to a conference where they will be the BIG DOGS, not just be part of the top half dozen. Where they are now fits that definition. .

You are definitely showing your age. This is a done deal sir. Bama will have new bedmates to play with. Google it!

(07-23-2021 09:31 PM)BAMANBLAZERFAN Wrote:  What I have NOT heard is why the power teams of the SEC (Bama, LSU, FL, UGA) would WANT to add Texas and OK to their "have to play regularly" schedules. I believe the SEC already has added the two BIG 12 programs they wanted in TX A&M and MO - two midrange power programs that don't threaten their status quo domination.

If Texas and OK do decide to leave the BIG 12, they are most likely to move to a conference where they will be the BIG DOGS, not just be part of the top half dozen. Where they are now fits that definition. .

MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY

(07-24-2021 05:20 AM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 09:31 PM)BAMANBLAZERFAN Wrote:  What I have NOT heard is why the power teams of the SEC (Bama, LSU, FL, UGA) would WANT to add Texas and OK to their "have to play regularly" schedules. I believe the SEC already has added the two BIG 12 programs they wanted in TX A&M and MO - two midrange power programs that don't threaten their status quo domination.

If Texas and OK do decide to leave the BIG 12, they are most likely to move to a conference where they will be the BIG DOGS, not just be part of the top half dozen. Where they are now fits that definition. .

MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY

Whenever I hear people say they don't understand why this is happening I just do the....

Right on time:

SEC has been in serious contact with Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, and Florida State.

Throw out all the preconceived notions, the old terms like P5 and G5, the "new playoff format", as well most of the P5's TV contracts (they will be renegotiated, down). There is about to be a paradigm change in college athletics unlike any we've ever seen.

This guy gets it:

Admiral Snackbar
@Brian_Reynold
Wrong way to look at it. SEC will rebrand as a professional sports league, realign divisions, and become a professional league, paying players and getting oodles of tv revenue. This is a coup to create a new league not an addition to the SE Conference.

This is how the heavyweights shed the dead wood. If I'm Vandy and the Mississippi schools, I would be getting pretty nervous right about now. I don't think anything is guaranteed anymore in college football.

The only way that Notre Dame joins a conference is if it's the cream of the crop super-conference. Their own network contract allows them lots of security. They're the only school that can and does schedule road games in California, Florida, Texas, New York at will, often several in a single season. They have a nationwide fan base this helps satisfy, and it also allows them to recruit nationwide. Go look at their roster and see how many players are from California, for instance.

At this point, any AD who is not at a perennial Top 25 school should be wearing out his phone and contact list in self defense. If he's not, it's pure professional malpractice of the highest order.

ESPN would gladly step on their own crank wearing golf shoes to sign an exclusive contract with the top 25 or 30 schools.

(07-24-2021 01:42 PM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  The only way that Notre Dame joins a conference is if it's the cream of the crop super-conference. Their own network contract allows them lots of security. They're the only school that can and does schedule road games in California, Florida, Texas, New York at will, often several in a single season. They have a nationwide fan base this helps satisfy, and it also allows them to recruit nationwide. Go look at their roster and see how many players are from California, for instance.

At this point, any AD who is not at a perennial Top 25 school should be wearing out his phone and contact list in self defense. If he's not, it's pure professional malpractice of the highest order.

ESPN would gladly step on their own crank wearing golf shoes to sign an exclusive contract with the top 25 or 30 schools.

BD, I would imagine it's The Mouse that's behind all of this. That's what people don't get about the ACC/GOR issue. Who were Clemson and FSU's rights granted to? Uhhh, The Mouse. So ESPN is going to hold Clemson and FSU in the ACC when they really want them in the SEC? Nope.

Here are the numbers that are relevant to the Elites:

The NFL reasserted its dominance over the American sports landscape on Thursday as it announced new media deals with CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN/ABC and Amazon that, according to a source, will net the league $113 billion over 11 years. That number is staggering, amounting to $321 million per team a year. Mar 19, 2021

A Super League is being put together to compete with the NFL, not the rest of college football. The lure will be $ on a scale that no sane minded university president is going to turn down. It solves the issue of players leaving early for the pro's and it will eventually mean removing football from the Title 9 equation because those players will no longer be on scholarship. That also solves the issue of "cheating" as all the payoffs will now be out in the open.

Will the SEC/Super League/Whatever require admission or class attendance by their football players? They will really be employees, not student-athletes.

(07-24-2021 03:06 PM)BlazerGreen Wrote:  

(07-24-2021 01:42 PM)UAB Band Dad Wrote:  The only way that Notre Dame joins a conference is if it's the cream of the crop super-conference. Their own network contract allows them lots of security. They're the only school that can and does schedule road games in California, Florida, Texas, New York at will, often several in a single season. They have a nationwide fan base this helps satisfy, and it also allows them to recruit nationwide. Go look at their roster and see how many players are from California, for instance.

At this point, any AD who is not at a perennial Top 25 school should be wearing out his phone and contact list in self defense. If he's not, it's pure professional malpractice of the highest order.

ESPN would gladly step on their own crank wearing golf shoes to sign an exclusive contract with the top 25 or 30 schools.

BD, I would imagine it's The Mouse that's behind all of this. That's what people don't get about the ACC/GOR issue. Who were Clemson and FSU's rights granted to? Uhhh, The Mouse. So ESPN is going to hold Clemson and FSU in the ACC when they really want them in the SEC? Nope.

Here are the numbers that are relevant to the Elites:

The NFL reasserted its dominance over the American sports landscape on Thursday as it announced new media deals with CBS, Fox, NBC, ESPN/ABC and Amazon that, according to a source, will net the league $113 billion over 11 years. That number is staggering, amounting to $321 million per team a year. Mar 19, 2021

A Super League is being put together to compete with the NFL, not the rest of college football. The lure will be $ on a scale that no sane minded university president is going to turn down. It solves the issue of players leaving early for the pro's and it will eventually mean removing football from the Title 9 equation because those players will no longer be on scholarship. That also solves the issue of "cheating" as all the payoffs will now be out in the open.

Will the SEC/Super League/Whatever require admission or class attendance by their football players? They will really be employees, not student-athletes.

Then as professional football teams they should pay rent to the public universities whose facilities they use.

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