Criteria:
How to group conferences by segregating the stronger earners to create high value conferences and value efficient conferences for the networks.

Assumptions: Big 10 and SEC only lose members unwilling to participate in pay for play.

All other conferences are grouped for cost efficiency for the networks:

B1G:
Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Wisconsin

Avg Cost per school per year $75,000,000


SEC:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina

Alabama, Louisiana State, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Avg Cost per school per year $80,000,000


ACC:

Iowa State, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, South Florida, Virginia Tech

Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U.

Avg Cost per school per year $37,500,000


Notes:

Boston College- Drops football and joins the Big East

Duke- Drops football and joins the Big East, or drops BB pay for play and joins Ivy

Wake Forest- Drops all pay for play and returns to the So Conf.

Vanderbilt- Drops football and joins the Big East

East Carolina- Drops all pay for play and joins the So Conf.

Memphis- Drops all pay for play and joins CUSA

Southern Methodist- Seeks PAC Membership?

Temple- Drops football and joins the Big East

Tulane- Drops all pay for play and joins CUSA

Tulsa- Drops all pay for play and joins CUSA

Wichita State- Joins a pay for play BB only conference

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Army / Navy / Air Force- All play with no pay for play as independents.

### ESPN
1. Holds 48% of Big 10 Rights: At $75 million for North Carolina and Virginia their share increases 6 million per school. 12 million that will easily be recouped with brand on brand BB in the B10 and with B10 diaspora interest in B10 football in NC and VA. The move costs ESPN 1.5 million for the Sooners, more than eclipsed by OU's higher content matchups in the Big 10. They gain revenue with N.D. joining the B1G even if they pay 48% of ND's full share as they have greater access to must see ND football.

Total extra outlay: 13.5 million for OU / UNC / UVa. 22.5 million for N.D. = 36 million.

2. ESPN pays out 25 million more for UT to the SEC, 33 million more for Kansas to the SEC, 40 million more for Texas Tech, and 50 million more for each of FSU and Clemson.

Total extra outlay: 98 million for UT / KU / TTU and 100 million for Clemson / FSU
But, 4 of the 5 move the needle for hoops 4 of the 5 for football, and 4 of the 5 for baseball and all now exclusively in ESPN hands against the best branded conference in the nation. Easily worth 198 million for an industry which measures its profits in billions.

3. ACC/B12/AAC

Seven ACC schools earn 7.5 million more per year. Six B12 schools earn the same, but ESPN picks up the other half by placing them under full contract. So 18.75 million per school equals 112.5 million more. And the 4 AAC schools cost 30 million each so 120 million. BYU is in likely for around 6 million more. So 244 million for games that could fill T2 slots any day of the week with larger viewing numbers and would also stream well.

Total extra outlay: 238.5 million:

Grand Total: 459 million

Offsets:
Remaining Cost of ACC departed (30 million x 3) = -90 million
Remaining Cost of AAC (7 members x 8 million a year) = -56 million
Remaining Cost of LHN (avg of 18.5 million a year) =-18.5 million
Remaining Cost of ACCN (avg of 4 million a year per school x 11) = -44 million.
Grand Total Reduction: - 208.5

Final Cost of all moves: 230 million to Disney.

You just decided to eliminate the PAC all together?

The problem with creating two super leagues will do nothing but shrink the overall pie. You have to find a way to build all areas of the country. Everyone outside of those two leagues will stop watching anyone but their team and the overall pie declines.

You need to find a way to engage all areas of the country. With a 12 team playoff(16 or 24 would be fine also). You can make a P3, P4 or P6 work to do that but you can't create two super leagues and destroy the rest of the sport and continue to grow the pie.

(07-20-2021 11:52 AM)Win5002 Wrote:  You just decided to eliminate the PAC all together?

The problem with creating two super leagues will do nothing but shrink the overall pie. You have to find a way to build all areas of the country. Everyone outside of those two leagues will stop watching anyone but their team and the overall pie declines.

You need to find a way to engage all areas of the country. With a 12 team playoff(16 or 24 would be fine also). You can make a P3, P4 or P6 work to do that but you can't create two super leagues and destroy the rest of the sport and continue to grow the pie.

No. The PAC simply remains as is. Geography is hard to overcome.

While I don't have the current projected financial figures, consolidation (fewer major conferences) enhances the profits and cost-effectiveness for the broadcasting networks.

Beyond the SEC, they will be telling other conferences what each school is worth and push for certain schools being placed in given conferences.

I believe the B12 will get eliminated. There will be a couple or few remnants. There may be a new Southwest-type Conference, below the P4 level, composed of B12 refugees, and members drawn from AAC, MWC, and C-USA. One current G5 conference could end up being defunct.