I love all this P6 talk about the AAC getting an invite into the cartel country club...BUT if the 9 team MWC with BYU, Utah, TCU, Air Force, San Diego St etc couldn’t get the invite, then what has changed today? Seriously that group couldn’t get in a decade ago but somehow the AAC Is getting in? I gave up when ECU got snubbed by the newly created BE FB conference. It made me realize how impossible it is to get into the country club. What’s changed today?

Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

70 schools? So which ones merit demotion as the cartel has less than that?

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

Honestly?

None.

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

I would say the line was pretty fuzzy until the last 30 years. It was 80-85 schools before the line was clear. That was the number of schools in the CFA and Big 10/Pac 10 TV contracts. The MAC and Big West were FBS, but not in the CFA. In 1996 the powers that be gave the WAC and CUSA the same voting power as what would become the BCS 6. There wasn't a lot of $$ difference between the bottom of the Pac and bottom of the Big East's TV contracts and that of the CUSA just a dozen years ago.

I see another movement afoot in that the club doesn't mean anything with this new 12 team playoff since access is equal.

Think about housing for example. At one time it meant something to be able to get into a 3,000 sqft home. Today people think more seriously about the maintenance of house that size, the yard etc. Then almost anyone could get into a property that size with the interest rates and 2 income households.

Bowls. Televised home games. Stadium Atmosphere. There was a time when all the club had exclusivity in all of this and now you can find it in the SBC.

I see things flipping to where its not about how much your house is worth but how much you paid for it. The MAC is better than the AAC because it spends far less.

If these media deals within the P5 aren't paying what those programs need I think there is going to be more realization that it might actually be smarter to reign in costs and lower expectations.

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ... The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too. ...

Remember that the 1996 Big East was Virginia Tech, UMiami, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers and Temple (in order of 1996 conference finish).

UConn joined in 2004, Temple left while Louisville, USF and UC joined in 2005, and finally Temple rejoined in 2012.

So 7/8 of the schools in the Big East football conference when the Big East was granted AQ status remain "Power" conference schools today. And the one that did not was the one that left the ranks of the Power Conferences for seven years, only returning in the last year before the Big East traded its name away.

1/5 of the schools that joined or rejoined after have held onto their promotion.

And the AAC schools that the Big12 took a closer look were former SWC schools, former Big East football schools, Tulane, and the outlier UCF. According to the Wikipedia machine, it is also an outlier in another sense, since it presently has the largest student body in the United States.

I’d like to think the MWC was a school or two away from major consideration back then, but not as additions. I wouldn’t be surprised, basketball worthiness or not, that UNLV was one of those heavy ball and chains that many couldn’t overlook because they were so bad in football and weren’t of the caliber of other academic institutions. UNM’s awful football at the time might have been another tough swallow.

Swap out UNLV for another old SWC school, such as Houston or SMU, and maybe that would have done it? I don’t think you get there with an upward Boise. Nor would Hawaii move the needle.

Apparently there were 3 metrics mentioned in the AAC letter that were used for BCS inclusion. In the letter, Aresco mentioned that using the criteria, the AAC qualified for BCS inclusion. I do not know what specifically they were.

P5 discriminates other schools who are not in their country club. Is that against the law something? The country club = spoiled rich kids mainly and only give scholarships to make an appearance they do not discriminate. The problem is that UCF was the true champs instead of Alabama that year. Alabama lost to Auburn and UCF beat Auburn. So stats so that UCF belongs in the talking, just like BYU, TCU, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah, Boise State, UNR, Fresno State and others. Since the schools are state schools and law makers can get involved to take away the their tax exemptions and all that, and break up the NCAA and start assigning schools on the size of the city or population and the size of student body. Most of these schools are public government run schools, and they can be dictated by state and federaul laws to fall in line, or get fined and lose any money for pell grants and all that. The government can rip up all the contracts these conferences have and say that you must include schools from all 50 states. Schools can not dictate other schools if they want to play ball like University of Arkansas can't tell Little Rock that they can't have football at the FBS level. Many of these communities do need the economic business from college sports.

(06-14-2021 01:31 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I see another movement afoot in that the club doesn't mean anything with this new 12 team playoff since access is equal.

Think about housing for example. At one time it meant something to be able to get into a 3,000 sqft home. Today people think more seriously about the maintenance of house that size, the yard etc. Then almost anyone could get into a property that size with the interest rates and 2 income households.

Bowls. Televised home games. Stadium Atmosphere. There was a time when all the club had exclusivity in all of this and now you can find it in the SBC.

I see things flipping to where its not about how much your house is worth but how much you paid for it. The MAC is better than the AAC because it spends far less.

If these media deals within the P5 aren't paying what those programs need I think there is going to be more realization that it might actually be smarter to reign in costs and lower expectations.

People actually *aren't* thinking about the housing maintenance anywhere near as much as the media anecdotes. Average square footage continues to climb up and up. Millennials have actually been moving more to the suburbs compared to cities for the past 5 years (so it's not just a pandemic issue). A large part of the reason why housing prices have been going up so fast is that Baby Boomers *aren't* downsizing at the rate that others had predicted, so you have Millennials and other housing buyers bidding up prices on a low supply of "desirable" houses on the market.

I think your housing comparison is valid, but for a different reason because I think it truly is all about what the proverbial house is worth as opposed to what you paid for it.

In housing terms, the P5 all bought land 100 years in the San Francisco Bay Area. Even the weakest P5 schools had the good fortune of buying in a very long time ago and they're getting to reap the returns of that investment generations later simply because their great-great-great grandparents bought houses in the right place.

Meanwhile, the G5 schools are on the outside looking in trying to buy into the San Francisco Bay Area at today's prices and they simply can't. It would be one thing if it were simply a matter of housing, but that has meant they weren't able to participate in the larger economic boom of Silicon Valley (or in the case of college football, the monster rise in football TV and postseason revenue) in the way that the P5 schools that already live there enjoy. The bar to buy in is so insanely high that we can count on one hand the number of non-power schools that have been able to do so in the past 25 years.

(06-14-2021 04:08 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ... The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too. ...

Remember that the 1996 Big East was Virginia Tech, UMiami, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pitt, Boston College, Rutgers and Temple (in order of 1996 conference finish).

UConn joined in 2004, Temple left while Louisville, USF and UC joined in 2005, and finally Temple rejoined in 2012.

So 7/8 of the schools in the Big East football conference when the Big East was granted AQ status remain "Power" conference schools today. And the one that did not was the one that left the ranks of the Power Conferences for seven years, only returning in the last year before the Big East traded its name away.

1/5 of the schools that joined or rejoined after have held onto their promotion.

And the AAC schools that the Big12 took a closer look were former SWC schools, former Big East football schools, Tulane, and the outlier UCF. According to the Wikipedia machine, it is also an outlier in another sense, since it presently has the largest student body in the United States.

To me all, that all indicates an equilibrium that was established at the beginning of the BCS system. Schools moved up and down in the years following the first ACC raid of the Big East, but when the old Big East/now-AAC lost virtually all of its initial members, they were then excluded from the club entirely.

And yes, I agree about the Big 12. The AAC schools that they looked at were all (with the exception of UCF) part of the power system at one time, which suggests even more inertia built into the overall structure (as the only truly "net new" power candidate was UCF).

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

I would liken Cincinnati more towards Pitt than Louisville, USF, and UCF.

The idea that P5/G5 doesn't matter as much in a 12 team playoff has some real merit, I think.

The biggest difference, honestly, is money. P5 schools are able to command WAY more TV money than G5 schools, and that isn't just because of cartel business. Not many G5 schools have established fanbases that would force a cable company to fork over big bucks. You can call your league whatever you want, but the market has already demonstrated exactly how much they think AAC football is worth, financially, and it's about to be a tiny fraction of what the Pac-12 is worth.

In this new system, your champion probably makes the playoff at least seven times a decade. You can sell a significant gap between you and the other smaller leagues. What more do you want that could be reasonably given by a larger league?

(06-14-2021 05:38 AM)otown Wrote:  Apparently there were 3 metrics mentioned in the AAC letter that were used for BCS inclusion. In the letter, Aresco mentioned that using the criteria, the AAC qualified for BCS inclusion. I do not know what specifically they were.

So as far as making the case that the AAC belongs in the BCS, that is not a point that anybody appeared to care to contest.

The AAC wasn't formally kicked out of the "AQ" club until the BCS folded up and it became the "Contract Bowl Conferences" club, at which point they did not have a contract with a bowl in the NY6, and so were not a member of that newly formed club.

In a way, it is a bit like when the "CCHA 7" told the men's WCHA that a majority of their members were quitting to form a new conference: after these smaller money schools came to the decision that they could not continue to afford to shoulder the burden of the Alaska and Alabama trips, it was much easier to leave to form a new club than to kick existing members out of the existing club.

Not to derail a good conversation, but I’m curious how Boise, BYU, Utah, TCU, etc would have reacted had:

All the BCS conferences stayed in their 2005 configurations AND the Big East offered them football only membership

Would the non-AQ wünderkinds been willing to start a non-football conference to house their Olympic sports in order to be part of the club?

(06-13-2021 09:43 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

70 schools? So which ones merit demotion as the cartel has less than that?

Reading comprehension: 65 (the number of current Power/D1 football programs) < 70.

Add the AAC to the "Power" division (11) and you get 76. 76 > 70.

(06-13-2021 08:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:30 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-13-2021 08:25 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Nothing has changed.

You can’t be just good on-the-field. A country club is a fair comparison here because it’s not just about merit or even the money (although the money is super important). You need to have the “right type” of profile for the gate keepers for a country club, so you need the right type of schools for university presidents.

Ok Frank, which AAC schools are the “right type” for the country club and which aren’t. Is ECU the right type?

You can see the AAC schools that the Big 12 at least considered for expansion several years ago: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, UCF, USF, Tulane and (former member) UConn.

UConn and Tulane have classic P5 profiles as a public flagship and elite private. SMU and Houston were former SWC members with a lot of the Big 12. Cincinnati, UCF and USF are “city schools” in large markets, but the only P5 school that has their type of profile is Louisville.

The issue is that an entire conference isn’t going to get elevated. As I’ve pointed out before, for all of the changes in conference realignment (including the complete elimination of the Big East football conference), the total net change of power conference schools from the start of the BCS system in 1996 to today is a grand total of TWO. Utah, Louisville and TCU got elevated while Temple got demoted. Note that TCU itself was just regaining the power position it lost with the breakup of the SWC, too.

So, the inertia is INSANELY strong at the power conference level. There might be 1 or 2 other schools that get picked off to join a power league if the AAC somehow becomes valuable enough, but there’s NFW that an entire league gets elevated. There is no such thing as “top 80 to 85 schools” that I see a lot of AAC and MWC fans talk about. The breaking point for the power ranks has been unchanged for decades at less than 70 schools.

no way a whole conference gets into the autonomous country club !
thats funny becouse if this 6 und 6 really happens then all 5 g5 conferences get in, albeit only one g5 team mybe two teams heck if you want to go all technical it could be more than 5 g5 teams
i can see 6 and 6 becoming 7 and 7 and so forth untill it becomes obvious that there is even more huge money to be made going with 10 conference champs go to playoffs with some number of wildcards
just saying becouse they already have been leaving giant sums of money on the table because of “ you name it “